Gale Warning 737, NWS Anchorage, AK

557 
FZAK52 PAFC 181238
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
338 AM AKST Wed Dec 18 2019

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-190115-
338 AM AKST Wed Dec 18 2019
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

Northerly flow with a cold air push will remain in place through
Thu. A front moves into the western Bering Thu afternoon.

$$

PKZ150-190115-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
338 AM AKST Wed Dec 18 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...N wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.TONIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.THU THROUGH SAT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN...S wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.

$$

PKZ155-190115-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
338 AM AKST Wed Dec 18 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...N wind 25 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.TONIGHT THROUGH THU NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT...W wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SUN...S wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft.

$$

PKZ160-190115-
Bristol Bay-
338 AM AKST Wed Dec 18 2019

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...N wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.THU...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing spray.
.THU NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN...E wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ165-190115-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
338 AM AKST Wed Dec 18 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...N wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI...W wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 19 ft.

$$

PKZ170-190115-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
338 AM AKST Wed Dec 18 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TONIGHT AND THU...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SUN...S wind 40 kt. Seas 26 ft.

$$

PKZ171-190115-
Unalaska Bay-
338 AM AKST Wed Dec 18 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft. Snow and rain.
.THU...NW wind 30 kt diminishing to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 11 
ft subsiding to 7 ft in the afternoon.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN...S wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ172-190115-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
338 AM AKST Wed Dec 18 2019

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 40 ft.

$$

PKZ173-190115-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
338 AM AKST Wed Dec 18 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft. Rain showers.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.THU...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 31 ft.

$$

PKZ174-190115-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
338 AM AKST Wed Dec 18 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft. Rain showers.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.THU...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 30 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 45 kt. Seas 42 ft.

$$

PKZ175-190115-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
338 AM AKST Wed Dec 18 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt becoming W 20 kt after midnight. 
Seas 12 ft.
.THU...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.FRI...W wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 45 kt. Seas 28 ft.

$$

PKZ176-190115-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
338 AM AKST Wed Dec 18 2019

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt becoming W 20 kt after midnight. 
Seas 11 ft.
.THU...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft building to 11 ft in the
afternoon.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 45 kt. Seas 34 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 50 kt. Seas 42 ft.

$$

PKZ177-190115-
Adak to Kiska-
338 AM AKST Wed Dec 18 2019

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU...S wind 35 kt. Seas 17 ft. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SAT...E wind 50 kt. Seas 31 ft.
.SUN...W wind 50 kt. Seas 35 ft.

$$

PKZ178-190115-
Kiska to Attu-
338 AM AKST Wed Dec 18 2019

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S wind 35 kt. Seas 7 ft building to 11 ft in the
afternoon.
.TONIGHT...S wind 40 kt. Seas 19 ft. Rain.
.THU...W wind 30 kt. Seas 19 ft. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SAT...N wind 50 kt. Seas 26 ft.
.SUN...W wind 50 kt. Seas 26 ft.

$$

PKZ179-190115-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
338 AM AKST Wed Dec 18 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. Freezing spray.
.THU...NW wind 20 kt becoming SW. Seas 8 ft. Freezing spray.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.FRI...W wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.SUN...E wind 35 kt. Seas 18 ft.

$$

PKZ180-190115-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
338 AM AKST Wed Dec 18 2019

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...N wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.THU...N wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI...W wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN...E wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ181-190115-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
338 AM AKST Wed Dec 18 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Freezing spray.
.THU...N wind 15 kt becoming variable 10 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
Freezing spray.
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ185-190115-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
338 AM AKST Wed Dec 18 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...N wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Freezing spray.
.THU...E of Saint Matthew Island, NW wind 15 kt becoming S in the
afternoon. W of Saint Matthew Island, S wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft
building to 14 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 20 ft.

$$

842 
FZAK52 PAFC 190037
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
337 PM AKST Wed Dec 18 2019

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-191400-
337 PM AKST Wed Dec 18 2019
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
Weak high pressure exits through Bristol Bay by Thu night. A Sea 
of Okhotsk low moves to the Russian Far East through Thu night. 
Its front drives into western Alaska Fri afternoon. High pressure 
moves in behind the front for Fri afternoon.


$$

PKZ150-191400-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
337 PM AKST Wed Dec 18 2019

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.THU...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 11 ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN...S wind 30 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.MON...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 21 ft.

$$

PKZ155-191400-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
337 PM AKST Wed Dec 18 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.THU...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT...W wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SUN...S wind 35 kt. Seas 32 ft.
.MON...W wind 30 kt. Seas 32 ft.

$$

PKZ160-191400-
Bristol Bay-
337 PM AKST Wed Dec 18 2019

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Freezing spray.
.THU...N wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. Freezing spray.
.THU NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. Heavy freezing spray along the
coast.
.FRI...E wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...E wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ165-191400-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
337 PM AKST Wed Dec 18 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.THU...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft. Freezing spray Cold Bay east.
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SAT...W wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.MON...W wind 20 kt. Seas 19 ft.

$$

PKZ170-191400-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
337 PM AKST Wed Dec 18 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.THU...NW wind 30 kt becoming W 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 13 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain.
.FRI...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 45 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SUN...S wind 40 kt. Seas 26 ft.
.MON...W wind 30 kt. Seas 25 ft.

$$

PKZ171-191400-
Unalaska Bay-
337 PM AKST Wed Dec 18 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft. Snow and rain.
.THU...NW wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas
12 ft subsiding to 7 ft in the afternoon.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN...S wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON...W wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ172-191400-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
337 PM AKST Wed Dec 18 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 45 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 40 ft.
.MON...W wind 30 kt. Seas 31 ft.

$$

PKZ173-191400-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
337 PM AKST Wed Dec 18 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.THU...W wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft. Rain.
.FRI...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 60 kt. Seas 22 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 31 ft.
.MON...W wind 30 kt. Seas 25 ft.

$$

PKZ174-191400-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
337 PM AKST Wed Dec 18 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.THU...W wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 55 kt. Seas 30 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 45 kt. Seas 42 ft.
.MON...W wind 30 kt. Seas 29 ft.

$$

PKZ175-191400-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
337 PM AKST Wed Dec 18 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 25 kt becoming W toward morning. Seas 12 ft.
.THU...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt becoming NW 20 kt after midnight. Seas
12 ft. Rain.
.FRI...W wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 60 kt. Seas 24 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 45 kt. Seas 28 ft.
.MON...W wind 30 kt. Seas 25 ft.

$$

PKZ176-191400-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
337 PM AKST Wed Dec 18 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt becoming W 20 kt after midnight. Seas
11 ft.
.THU...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft. Rain.
.FRI...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 35 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 55 kt. Seas 34 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 50 kt. Seas 42 ft.
.MON...W wind 35 kt. Seas 23 ft.

$$

PKZ177-191400-
Adak to Kiska-
337 PM AKST Wed Dec 18 2019

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...S wind increasing to 30 kt. Seas 7 ft building to 11 ft 
after midnight.
.THU...S wind 35 kt. Seas 18 ft. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.FRI...W wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 50 kt. Seas 31 ft.
.SUN...W wind 50 kt. Seas 35 ft.
.MON...W wind 30 kt. Seas 22 ft.

$$

PKZ178-191400-
Kiska to Attu-
337 PM AKST Wed Dec 18 2019

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...S wind 40 kt. Seas 21 ft. Rain.
.THU...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 20 ft. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 50 kt. Seas 26 ft.
.SUN...W wind 50 kt. Seas 26 ft.
.MON...W wind 25 kt. Seas 17 ft.

$$

PKZ179-191400-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
337 PM AKST Wed Dec 18 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. Freezing spray.
.THU...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. Freezing spray.
.THU NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft building to 13 ft after
midnight.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.SUN...E wind 35 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.MON...N wind 20 kt. Seas 15 ft.

$$

PKZ180-191400-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
337 PM AKST Wed Dec 18 2019

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.THU...N wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.THU NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...E wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.MON...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ181-191400-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
337 PM AKST Wed Dec 18 2019

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THURSDAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Freezing spray.
.THU...N wind 15 kt becoming variable 10 kt late afternoon. Seas 5 
ft. Heavy freezing spray along the coast in the morning.
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt increasing to 30 kt after midnight.
Seas 3 ft building to 7 ft after midnight. Freezing spray. Snow.
.FRI...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SAT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.MON...N wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ185-191400-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
337 PM AKST Wed Dec 18 2019

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...E of Saint Matthew Island, NW wind 25 kt. W of Saint
Matthew Island, NW wind 20 kt becoming SW 30 kt after midnight.
Seas 7 ft. Freezing spray.
.THU...E of Saint Matthew Island, NW wind 15 kt becoming S in the
afternoon. W of Saint Matthew Island, S wind 35 kt. Seas 7 ft
building to 14 ft in the afternoon. Freezing spray. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft. Snow and rain.
.FRI...W wind 30 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.SAT...E wind 35 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.MON...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
451 AM AKST Tue Dec 17 2019

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

A disorganized area of low presure exists south of the Aleutian
Island chain and is drifting southeast. This low is continuing to
produce rain showers and low level cloud cover. Behind this low,
the push of cold air can be seen beginning to develop on satellite
with flow switching to a northerly direction and moving cloud
cover southward.

In southcentral AK, the decaying stationary front continues to
produce showers along the Gulf coast, with calm weather over
inland areas. The next front set to impact the southcentral coast
can be observed on satellite moving north through the Gulf of
Alaska. This front is an extension of the disorganized area of low
pressure that is south of the Aleutian Islands.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

Models continue to be in good agreement for the short-term both
between each model and each model run. Therefore, there is high
confidence in the forecast with just minor adjustments to the
new forecast package.

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions and light winds will persist.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
The remnants of the weather front along the north Gulf coast are
bringing in rain and snow showers to the coastal areas with a few
snow showers making it over the coastal mountains. Inland areas
will continue to remain dry. Some colder air is filtering into the
region which will see more of the precipitation tilt toward the
snow showers from rain showers.

Another front will make it to the north Gulf coast Wednesday
morning, but this front will rapidly weaken as well. After this
front dissipates, there will be generally high pressure over the
mainland part of the state with broad low pressure in the Gulf of
Alaska. This will potentially bring in some gusty northerly winds
through channeled terrain along the north Gulf coast Wednesday
night and beyond.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2: Today and
Wednesday)...

Southwest Alaska will be between two large-scale weather systems
through Wednesday. A nearly stationary area of Arctic high
pressure over northern Alaska will persist through Wednesday.
Meanwhile, an area of low pressure will move east along the
Pacific side of the Alaska Peninsula today and push into the Gulf
on Wednesday. In this pattern, cold and dry weather will be the
rule. The last remnants of a dying front over Southwest Alaska
will keep the area fairly cloudy starting out the day, but the
skies should be clearing through the day today. In addition, the
winds will be out of the northeast, staying offshore. This will
support moving increasingly cold and dry air into the area from
the interior. Thus, as mentioned yesterday, temperatures will drop
towards normal December levels today and tomorrow, followed by
below average temperatures late week into the weekend. The dry
weather will allow for plentiful weak December sunshine for the
foreseeable future as well.

With that said, as temperatures drop late week, the winds will
remain fairly steady. This could lead to wind chills dropping
below 30 below at times, with the start of this threat beginning
Wednesday night. So far we do not expect there to be many areas
where both wind chills below 40 below and wind speeds of 15 mph
sustained will be concurrent. Near Bethel and out towards the
Delta, the wind speed criterion will be there, but it is not
expected to be quite cold enough. Meanwhile further into the
interior, Aniak's wind chills could approach 40 below, but the
wind speeds will not be there. This will certainly be worth
watching in the coming days as colder air settles in.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2: Today and
Wednesday)...

A weakening front/deformation zone over the western and central
Bering is responsible for the area of strongest winds over the
area this morning. It will sag southward and continue weakening
into tonight. North to northeasterly winds will persist across
much of the Bering through Wednesday. The next strong front will
turn the winds southerly across the far western Bering and western
Aleutians on Wednesday. This front will also produce gale force
winds as it sweeps across the Bering through Thursday. Elsewhere,
the winds and cooler temperatures will persist across the Bering
basin through Wednesday.

&&

.MARINE (Days 3 through 5)...

New guidance is giving higher confidence in the likelihood for
gale force outflow winds in the northwest Gulf around Kodiak
Island Thursday into Friday. A strong North Pacific low is being
suggested by most models for entering the Western Aleutians
Saturday. However, uncertainty exists in the low's track. Guidance
agrees on an eastward path, but deviations in the northward
extent will play a strong role in where the strongest winds are.
Right now, most models agree that gale force winds can be expected
with a couple of outliers suggesting storm force or small craft
level winds.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...

The extended period starts off quiet and cold for southern
mainland Alaska, as an upper level low allows for more winter like
temperatures to return through the weekend. A more active period
will ensue Saturday with a storm system that will bring more
active weather to the Aleutians and progress into mainland Alaska
to start the work week. Warm Pacific air will likely intrude on
the colder air in place and precipitation can be expected for
Bristol Bay and much of southcentral Alaska on Monday.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALES: 119 120 130 131 175-178
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&
...corrected typo...

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...BJB
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...EZ
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...JW
MARINE/LONG TERM...LTB