Gale Warning 671, NWS Anchorage, AK

157 
FZAK61 PAFC 101253
OFFAER

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
353 AM AKST Tue Dec 10 2019

Offshore waters forecast for the Gulf of Alaska West of 144W

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ399-110130-
353 AM AKST Tue Dec 10 2019
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...A front across the
northern Gulf and across the Barren Islands this morning will move 
inland this evening. A second front will move into the Southern Gulf 
Tue afternoon and spread northward toward the Gulf Coast through Wed 
night.

$$

PKZ351-110130-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore North of 57N and West of 144W-
353 AM AKST Tue Dec 10 2019

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft. Rain.
.WED...E wind 25 to 40 kt diminishing to 20 to 30 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 20 ft. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 17 to 21 ft.
.THU...E wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 12 to 19 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...SE wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft.

$$

PKZ352-110130-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore South of 57N North of 55N and West of
144W-
353 AM AKST Tue Dec 10 2019

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE wind 15 to 25 kt becoming E 20 to 35 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 15 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 15 to 20 ft. Rain.
.WED...E wind 30 kt. Seas 17 to 21 ft.
.WED NIGHT...E wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 14 to 21 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft.
.SAT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 8 to 11 ft.

$$

378 
FZAK61 PAFC 110034
OFFAER

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
334 PM AKST Tue Dec 10 2019

Offshore waters forecast for the Gulf of Alaska West of 144W

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ399-111400-
334 PM AKST Tue Dec 10 2019
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...

A front will move northwestward across the Gulf Tue night into Wed
morning. A 965 mb low at 54N 149W Wed night will move to 56N 151W
at 974 mb Thu afternoon. 

$$

PKZ351-111400-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore North of 57N and West of 144W-
334 PM AKST Tue Dec 10 2019

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft. Rain.
.WED...E wind 25 to 40 kt diminishing to 20 to 30 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 17 to 21 ft. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...E wind 25 to 35 kt. Seas 17 to 20 ft.
.THU...E wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 15 to 19 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 12 to 18 ft.
.FRI...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 8 to 11 ft.

$$

PKZ352-111400-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore South of 57N North of 55N and West of
144W-
334 PM AKST Tue Dec 10 2019

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 15 to 20 ft. Rain.
.WED...E wind 30 kt. Seas 17 to 21 ft.
.WED NIGHT...E wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 14 to 19 ft. Rain showers.
.THU...E wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 13 to 18 ft.
.THU NIGHT...S wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 15 to 23 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...S wind 20 kt. Seas 8 to 12 ft.

$$

078 
FZAK61 PAFC 111256
OFFAER

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
356 AM AKST Wed Dec 11 2019

Offshore waters forecast for the Gulf of Alaska West of 144W

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ399-120130-
356 AM AKST Wed Dec 11 2019
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...A front will move north
and reach the North Gulf Coast Wed morning and remain in place 
through Fri morning. The associated surface low over the North 
Pacific will move into the Southern Gulf Thu morning at 968 mb then 
move to 57N 149W at 980 mb by Fri morning.

$$

PKZ351-120130-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore North of 57N and West of 144W-
356 AM AKST Wed Dec 11 2019

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 18 to 21 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...E wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 17 to 22 ft. Rain.
.THU...E wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 14 to 19 ft. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft.
.FRI...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.SUN...E wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 13 to 18 ft.

$$

PKZ352-120130-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore South of 57N North of 55N and West of
144W-
356 AM AKST Wed Dec 11 2019

.TODAY...E wind 30 kt. Seas 18 to 22 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 17 to 20 ft. Rain showers.
.THU...E wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 13 to 19 ft. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 15 to 23 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 14 to 19 ft.

$$

870 
FZAK61 PAFC 120009
OFFAER

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
309 PM AKST Wed Dec 11 2019

Offshore waters forecast for the Gulf of Alaska West of 144W

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ399-121345-
309 PM AKST Wed Dec 11 2019
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...

A 963 mb North Pacific low at 53N 148W Wed afternoon will move to
56N 149W at 975 mb Thu afternoon. The low will then move to 58N 
150W at 992 mb Fri afternoon. 

$$

PKZ351-121345-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore North of 57N and West of 144W-
309 PM AKST Wed Dec 11 2019

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...E wind 25 to 35 kt. Seas 18 to 22 ft.
.THU...E wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 14 to 19 ft. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 13 to 19 ft. Rain.
.FRI...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 10 to 17 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...SE wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 11 to 18 ft.

$$

PKZ352-121345-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore South of 57N North of 55N and West of
144W-
309 PM AKST Wed Dec 11 2019

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 17 to 20 ft. Rain showers.
.THU...E wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 14 to 18 ft. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 15 to 23 ft. Rain.
.FRI...SW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 14 to 22 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 16 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...SE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft.

$$

162 
FZAK61 PAFC 121256
OFFAER

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
356 AM AKST Thu Dec 12 2019

Offshore waters forecast for the Gulf of Alaska West of 144W

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ399-130145-
356 AM AKST Thu Dec 12 2019
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...A 968 mb low at 54N 149W
moves to 58N 149W at 980 mb Thu night and then moves inland Fri 
night. A front approaches the western Gulf Fri night.

$$

PKZ351-130145-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore North of 57N and West of 144W-
356 AM AKST Thu Dec 12 2019

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 14 to 18 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 12 to 17 ft. Rain.
.FRI...S to E wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 12 to 18 ft. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 10 to 17 ft.
.SAT THROUGH MON...SE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft.

$$

PKZ352-130145-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore South of 57N North of 55N and West of
144W-
356 AM AKST Thu Dec 12 2019

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 14 to 19 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 to 35 kt...except variable wind to 20 kt W of
148W in the evening. Seas 14 to 22 ft. Rain.
.FRI...SW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 14 to 22 ft. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...SE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 11 to 18 ft.

$$

325 
FZAK61 PAFC 130053
OFFAER

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
353 PM AKST Thu Dec 12 2019

Offshore waters forecast for the Gulf of Alaska West of 144W

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ399-131415-
353 PM AKST Thu Dec 12 2019
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...

A 974 mb low at 56N 148W moves inland near 59N 151W at 1002 mb Sat 
morning. A second front moves into the western Gulf Sat afternoon.

$$

PKZ351-131415-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore North of 57N and West of 144W-
353 PM AKST Thu Dec 12 2019

.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 12 to 17 ft. Rain.
.FRI...S wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 11 to 18 ft. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 11 to 17 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 11 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...SE wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft.

$$

PKZ352-131415-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore South of 57N North of 55N and West of
144W-
353 PM AKST Thu Dec 12 2019

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 to 30 kt increasing to 25 to 40 kt after
midnight. Seas 13 to 21 ft. Rain.
.FRI...SW wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 14 to 22 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 16 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 8 to 16 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 11 to 18 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...SE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft.
.TUE...S wind up to 15 kt. Seas 8 to 11 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
735 AM AKST Mon Dec 9 2019

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

A strong area of low pressure centered south of the Alaska
Peninsula is slowly drifting northward into the eastern Bering.
The associated storm force front is lifting northward over the
southern Mainland, bringing heavy rain and gusty southeasterly
winds to the northern Gulf coast. Meanwhile over Southwest, this
same low is producing gusty northeasterly winds and rain across
the Alaska Peninsula while farther north along the Kuskokwim Delta
Coast, temperatures are cold enough for snow. Snowfall combined
with gusty winds has significantly reduced visibility across that area
this morning.

Farther west, weak cyclonic circulation is in place over the
central Bering while another low centered south of Shemya with a
central pressure near 980 mb continues to move eastward, tracking
along the south side of the Chain.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

Overall model solutions are in great agreement for the short-term
and the track of the low center as it lifts northward along the
southwest coast of Alaska through Tuesday. Differences arise by
Tuesday night as another North Pacific low tracks northward toward
the southern Mainland. Model solutions continue to differ on the
exact track and location of this low center by midweek. Overall,
forecast confidence is average.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...Wind shear will continue to be the main threat as another
front lifts inland this morning. Winds will be out of the north
at the terminal while strong southeasterly flow will persist aloft
through the morning. Expect gusty southeasterly flow to arrive at
the terminal by Monday evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
A strong weather front will move through the area today. This
will bring very strong winds to Turnagain Arm and the higher
elevations around Anchorage. This system is also loaded with
moisture and is quite warm. Heavy precipitation is expected along
and near the Gulf coast. Very little precipitation is expected for
inland areas due to strong downsloping easterly winds aloft. The
front will move inland late this afternoon into the evening. The
winds along Turnagain arm will then diminish. The downsloping
component will also weaken, and some precipitation should work its
way inland. The winds over the Anchorage area will then become
southerly and increase. This will push temperatures into the 40s.
The front will dissipate on Tuesday with precipitation and winds
diminishing considerably. Another front will move into the Gulf late
Tuesday, then move north to near the Gulf coast late Tuesday night.
This next system will not be as strong as today's (Monday) storm,
with winds and precipitation generally staying over the Gulf to just
along the Gulf coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...

Temperatures will continue to rise above freezing this morning as
a North Pacific low keeps on its path northward through the
afternoon. Many areas in Bristol Bay have already warmed up with
this warm front, causing snow to transition to rain. Areas along
the Kuskokwim Delta Coast will continue to see potential blowing
snow out ahead of the front this morning, with gusty conditions up
to 45 mph. However, conditions will improve late this morning
into the afternoon as temperatures continue to rise. Strong winds
will continue across Southwest Alaska through Tuesday morning when
the low center moves into the northern Bering. By Tuesday
afternoon, showers begin to taper off across the region before the
next possible system brings precipitation to the Alaska Peninsula
and Bristol Bay for Wednesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...

A powerful 950 mb low centered near Port Heiden this morning will
move northward between the Pribilofs and Southwest Alaska by this
afternoon. Strong winds will persist over the eastern Bering and
in Bristol Bay through tomorrow morning. Meanwhile, northerly
gales this afternoon will continue across the Pribilofs and
central Bering. The winds quickly switch over to westerly flow
overnight for the central and western Bering and Aleutians as the
low center tracks into the northern Bering for Tuesday morning.
Rain and snow showers are likely to continue through Tuesday for
much of the Bering and Aleutians.

&&

.MARINE (Days 3 through 5)...

...Bering Sea and Aleutian Coastal Waters...

A pair of low pressure systems will affect the region. The first
low moves from the northern Bering toward the Kamchatka Peninsula
on Wednesday as it retrogrades (moves west), with sustained gales
likely north of 60N and west of 175W. Farther east, a north
Pacific low moving toward the Alaska Peninsula (AKPEN) will also
bring sustained gales to Bristol Bay and coastal waters of the
AKPEN. The winds will then subside for both locations on Thursday
and Friday. Seas look to generally remain at or below 15 feet
through the period.

...Gulf of Alaska...

A front will move from south to north across the region on
Wednesday, with sustained gales preceding it. Given a long fetch
length, seas are expected to build into the 20 to 25 foot range
ahead of this feature. The winds will subside for Thursday and
Friday, but the waves will take more time. We expect seas to remain
near 20 feet for the southern and eastern Gulf on Thursday before
decreasing on Friday.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...

Models continue to struggle with the specifics of the long term
forecast, but some general signals can still be gleaned in the
noise. Synoptically, a progressive pattern will persist over the
Bering and Alaska. A vertically stacked low in the northern Bering
Sea Wednesday will continue steering modified Arctic air over the
Aleutians and Bering. The low will continue to gradually weaken
and shift toward Siberia, but in the meantime expect scattered
showers over much of the Bering/Aleutians through Thursday.
Meanwhile, a low that is currently roughly 400 miles southwest of
Shemya will quickly traverse the North Pacific over the next few
days. As this low tracks northeast of 50N 150W it will push a warm
occluded front towards the North Gulf Coast, likely in the
Wednesday to Thursday timeframe. This should trigger a healthy
round of precipitation along the North Gulf Coast and
Alaska/Aleutian Range. South/southeast facing slopes should get
the heaviest precipitation, while areas in the lee (e.g.,
Anchorage Bowl, western Kenai Peninsula, Bristol Bay) will be more
of a challenge with shadowing. While it's early to get into
specifics with respect to precipitation type, this looks like a
fairly warm system... the mountains should get snow but in lower
lying areas precipitation type will be a challenge. Friday into
the weekend, models indicate a strong low or series of lows
traversing the Aleutians, bringing a round of strong southerly
winds and precipitation.

In short, temperatures will largely be near or above average with
a southerly component to the flow over southern Alaska for much
of the Wednesday through Sunday timeframe. In addition,
precipitation will mostly be focused along the North Gulf Coast.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NPW 101, 125. WSW 155.
MARINE...Storms 119, 120, 130-132, 136-141, 351, 352.
 Gales 125, 128, 129, 150, 160, 165, 177, 178-181, 185, 411, 412,
414.

FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...KO
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...BL
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...AH
MARINE/LONG TERM...PD/MM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
1255 PM AKST MON DEC 9 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1100 AM     HEAVY RAIN       4 NW HOMER              59.67N 151.59W
12/09/2019  M1.92 INCH       KENAI PENINSULA    AK   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SPOTTER RECORDED 1.92 INCHES OF RAINFALL
            BETWEEN 10PM AKST ON THE 08TH AND 11AM AKST
            ON THE 09TH.

&&

ED

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
1257 PM AKST MON DEC 9 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1250 PM     HEAVY RAIN       2 N SEWARD              60.13N 149.44W
12/09/2019  E1.40 INCH       KENAI PENINSULA    AK   PUBLIC

            SPOTTER RECORDED 1.4 INCHES OF RAIN.

&&

ED