Alert archive / Alaska / Gale Warnings in 2019

Gale Warning 574, NWS Anchorage, AK

November 3, 2019

NWS Anchorage, AK issued this gale warning at Nov 3, 2019, 3:17 PM AKST. It was in force for 48 hr. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued
Nov 3, 2019, 3:17 PM AKST (00:17 UTC)
Expired
Nov 5, 2019, 3:22 PM AKST
In force
48 hr
Issued by
NWS Anchorage, AK

The text

As transmitted.

188 
FZAK62 PAFC 040017
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
317 PM AKST Sun Nov 3 2019

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-041415-
317 PM AKST Sun Nov 3 2019
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 997 mb North Pacific low moves to 48N 163W at 992 mb for Tue
afternoon. A Kamchatka front extends into the the western 
Aleutians and Bering for Tue afternoon.

NOTICE: Please comment on a U.S. Coast Guard proposal to 
terminate medium frequency NAVTEX broadcasts. Visit 
https://go.usa.gov/xVHc3 to submit comments by November 12, 2019.

$$

PKZ411-041415-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
317 PM AKST Sun Nov 3 2019

...GALE WARNING MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON...SE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 15 to 30 kt increasing to 25 to 40 kt 
after midnight. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 8 to 16 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 16 ft.
.WED...NW wind up to 20 kt. Seas 8 to 12 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NE wind up to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft.

$$

PKZ412-041415-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
317 PM AKST Sun Nov 3 2019

.TONIGHT...NE wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...NE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 9 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED THROUGH FRI...N wind up to 20 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft.

$$

PKZ413-041415-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
317 PM AKST Sun Nov 3 2019

.TONIGHT...NE wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON...NE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 9 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind up to 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED THROUGH FRI...N wind up to 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ414-041415-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
317 PM AKST Sun Nov 3 2019

.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...N wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON NIGHT...N wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft.
.TUE...N wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...N wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 9 ft.
.WED THROUGH FRI...NE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft.

$$
5 follow-up statements
298 
FZAK62 PAFC 040018 CCA
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
317 PM AKST Sun Nov 3 2019

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-041415-
317 PM AKST Sun Nov 3 2019
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 997 mb North Pacific low moves to 48N 163W at 992 mb for Tue 
afternoon. A Kamchatka front extends into the western Aleutians 
and Bering Sea for Tue afternoon.

NOTICE: Please comment on a U.S. Coast Guard proposal to 
terminate medium frequency NAVTEX broadcasts. Visit 
https://go.usa.gov/xVHc3 to submit comments by November 12, 2019.

$$

PKZ411-041415-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
317 PM AKST Sun Nov 3 2019

...GALE WARNING MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON...SE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 15 to 30 kt increasing to 25 to 40 kt 
after midnight. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 8 to 16 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 16 ft.
.WED...NW wind up to 20 kt. Seas 8 to 12 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NE wind up to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft.

$$

PKZ412-041415-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
317 PM AKST Sun Nov 3 2019

.TONIGHT...NE wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...NE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 9 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED THROUGH FRI...N wind up to 20 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft.

$$

PKZ413-041415-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
317 PM AKST Sun Nov 3 2019

.TONIGHT...NE wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON...NE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 9 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind up to 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED THROUGH FRI...N wind up to 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ414-041415-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
317 PM AKST Sun Nov 3 2019

.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...N wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON NIGHT...N wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft.
.TUE...N wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...N wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 9 ft.
.WED THROUGH FRI...NE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft.

$$
308 
FZAK62 PAFC 041242
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
342 AM AKST Mon Nov 4 2019

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-050200-
342 AM AKST Mon Nov 4 2019
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A front over the Alaska Peninsula will move into the eastern
Bering this afternoon and remain there into Tue. A 998 mb low
forms at 56N 163W Tue afternoon and moves to 56N 166W at 993 mb
Tue night. A 967 mb North Pacific low moves to 51N 164E this
evening and to 54N 163E at 960 mb Tue morning.

NOTICE: Please comment on a U.S. Coast Guard proposal to 
terminate medium frequency NAVTEX broadcasts. Visit 
https://go.usa.gov/xVHc3 to submit comments by November 12, 2019.

$$

PKZ411-050200-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
342 AM AKST Mon Nov 4 2019

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 15 to 30 kt increasing to 25 to 40 kt after
midnight. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 16 ft.
.WED...N wind up to 20 kt. Seas 8 to 11 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NE wind up to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft.

$$

PKZ412-050200-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
342 AM AKST Mon Nov 4 2019

.TODAY...NE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED THROUGH FRI...N wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 11 ft.

$$

PKZ413-050200-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
342 AM AKST Mon Nov 4 2019

.TODAY...NE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 9 ft.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft.
.WED THROUGH FRI...N wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 10 ft.

$$

PKZ414-050200-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
342 AM AKST Mon Nov 4 2019

.TODAY...N wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TONIGHT...N wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 11 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft.
.WED THROUGH FRI...NE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft.

$$
640 
FZAK62 PAFC 050023
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
323 PM AKST Mon Nov 4 2019

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-051430-
323 PM AKST Mon Nov 4 2019
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 989 mb North Pacific low Tue afternoon moves to 54N 169W for 
Wed afternoon. A front associated with a 977 mb Kamchatka low pushes
into the western Aleutians and Bering then dissipates Wed afternoon.

NOTICE: Please comment on a U.S. Coast Guard proposal to 
terminate medium frequency NAVTEX broadcasts. Visit 
https://go.usa.gov/xVHc3 to submit comments by November 12, 2019.

$$

PKZ411-051430-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
323 PM AKST Mon Nov 4 2019

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...E wind 15 to 30 kt increasing to 25 to 40 kt after
midnight. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 20 to 30 kt diminishing to 10 to 25 kt after
midnight. Seas 9 to 16 ft.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...N wind up to 20 kt. Seas 7 to 11 ft.
.THU...N wind up to 20 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...E wind up to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.

$$

PKZ412-051430-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
323 PM AKST Mon Nov 4 2019

.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED...NE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 12 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NE wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 9 to 12 ft.
.THU THROUGH SAT...NE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.

$$

PKZ413-051430-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
323 PM AKST Mon Nov 4 2019

.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 15 to 25 kt diminishing to up to 20 kt after
midnight. Seas 9 ft.
.WED...N wind up to 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft.
.THU THROUGH SAT...NE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft.

$$

PKZ414-051430-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
323 PM AKST Mon Nov 4 2019

.TONIGHT...N wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 11 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED...NE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.WED NIGHT...E wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft.
.THU...E wind up to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 9 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...N wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$
525 
FZAK62 PAFC 051226
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
326 AM AKST Tue Nov 5 2019

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-060200-
326 AM AKST Tue Nov 5 2019
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A front associated with a North Pacific low remains over the
central Bering through Wed morning. The low center at 51N 158W at
993 mb Wed morning moves to 54N 171W at 988 mb Thu morning. A 
front associated with a 968 mb Kamchatka low remains over the 
western Bering before dissipating Wed morning. A front associated 
with a 991 mb low at 51N 165E Wed night moves to 51N 170E by Thu 
morning.

NOTICE: Please comment on a U.S. Coast Guard proposal to 
terminate medium frequency NAVTEX broadcasts. Visit 
https://go.usa.gov/xVHc3 to submit comments by November 12, 2019.

$$

PKZ411-060200-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
326 AM AKST Tue Nov 5 2019

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 to 30 kt diminishing to 10 to 25 kt after
midnight. Seas 10 to 16 ft. Rain.
.WED...N wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED NIGHT...N wind up to 20 kt. Seas 7 to 11 ft.
.THU...N wind up to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...SE wind up to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.

$$

PKZ412-060200-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
326 AM AKST Tue Nov 5 2019

.TODAY...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED...NE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 12 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NE wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 9 to 13 ft.
.THU...NE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...E wind up to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft.

$$

PKZ413-060200-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
326 AM AKST Tue Nov 5 2019

.TODAY...NE wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED...N wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 11 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...W wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.SAT...SE wind up to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 9 ft.

$$

PKZ414-060200-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
326 AM AKST Tue Nov 5 2019

.TODAY...NE wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft.
.WED...E wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.WED NIGHT...E wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 9 ft.
.THU THROUGH SAT...NE wind up to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 8 ft.

$$
384 
FZAK62 PAFC 060022
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
322 PM AKST Tue Nov 5 2019

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-061345-
322 PM AKST Tue Nov 5 2019
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A front over the western Aleutians associated with a 974 mb
Kamchatka low will dissipate by Wed morning. A 992 mb low at 52N 
158W Tue afternoon moves to 56N 171W at 986 mb by Wed afternoon 
and then continues to 56N 173W at 987 mb by Thu afternoon. A 992 
mb low at 50N 166E Wed afternoon moves to 49N 178E at 998 mb by 
Thu afternoon.

NOTICE: Please comment on a U.S. Coast Guard proposal to 
terminate medium frequency NAVTEX broadcasts. Visit 
https://go.usa.gov/xVHc3 to submit comments by November 12, 2019.

$$

PKZ411-061345-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
322 PM AKST Tue Nov 5 2019

.TONIGHT...E wind 20 to 30 kt diminishing to 10 to 25 kt after
midnight. Seas 9 to 16 ft. Rain.
.WED...NE wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 8 to 11 ft.
.WED NIGHT...N wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.THU...N wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.THU NIGHT...N wind up to 20 kt. Seas 9 to 13 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...SE wind up to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.

$$

PKZ412-061345-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
322 PM AKST Tue Nov 5 2019

.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 11 ft.
.WED...NE wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 10 to 14 ft.
.WED NIGHT THROUGH THU...NE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...E wind up to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft.

$$

PKZ413-061345-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
322 PM AKST Tue Nov 5 2019

.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 to 25 kt diminishing to up to 20 kt after
midnight. Seas 9 ft.
.WED...N wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 8 to 11 ft.
.THU...NW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NW wind up to 20 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.FRI...W wind up to 15 kt. Seas 5 to 9 ft.
.SAT...SE wind up to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 9 ft.
.SUN...S wind 10 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft.

$$

PKZ414-061345-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
322 PM AKST Tue Nov 5 2019

.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 11 ft.
.WED...E wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...E wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft.
.THU...SE wind up to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft.
.THU NIGHT THROUGH SUN...E wind up to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft.

$$

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this gale warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Anchorage, AK wrote its last area forecast discussion before this gale warning went out at Nov 3, 4:49 AM AKST, 10 hours 28 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Nov 3, 4:49 AM AKST, 10 hours 28 minutes before
Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
449 AM AKST Sun Nov 3 2019

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
High pressure continues to dominate over the Gulf, keeping upper
level flow along the north Gulf coast out of the west. The ridging
is also helping to bring more warm air to the southern mainland as
a long fetch of warm air rides over the ridge from the North
Pacific. Another area of high pressure sits over the northern
Bering helping to keep weak outflow winds over southwest Alaska.
Underneath the effects of the high pressure, the southern
mainland is seeing areas of fog and stratus lasting through the
night.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
The models are in good agreement through the short term for the
main synoptic features leading to high confidence with the
pattern. However, fog and stratus will continue to be a forecast
challenge for areas around the southern mainland.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...Light winds will persist. Fog and stratus will dissipate
in the early afternoon and then VFR conditions will persist. There
is a chance that fog could return tonight as there is
disagreement amongst the models on how dry conditions will be.
This leads to lower confidence tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...
(Sunday through Tuesday)

Fog has once again reasserted itself across much of the region,
with the lowest visibilities along the eastern side of the Cook
Inlet from north of Kenai, through Anchorage, into the Palmer
area. Here, visibilities have mainly been in the 1 to 3 mile
range, occasionally down to 1/4 of a mile. Otherwise, its been
less of a impedance for the morning drivers. This has occurred as
winds remain light, and a strong inversion (area of warmer air
aloft that acts like a "lid", preventing air to rise) which has
allowed surface moisture from our recent rainfall to remain
entrenched near the surface.

Aiding this process is an area of low pressure in the north
Pacific, and its attendant warm front stretching across the
southern Gulf. This front should spread rainfall far enough north
to reach the southern coast, before stalling once again.
Meanwhile, an area of low pressure stretched from eastern Russia,
across the Seward Peninsula, then across central portions of the
state. With our region being "sandwiched" in between, look for the
morning fog to gradually dissipate as it once again lifts into a
stratus deck by late morning. The good news is, the high pressure
will slide by just north and east of the Copper Basin, while the
front to the south approaches. This results in a tightening
pressure gradient, allowing increasing northerly winds to develop,
which should be sufficient to mix out the air enough from north
to south to allow the fog to become less of an issue for
tonight/Monday morning. These winds will get funneled through area
gaps/passes, with the strongest winds expected in the Broad pass,
Thompson Pass, and near Palmer as the Matanuska wind cranks up
somewhat.

This pattern begins to change for Monday and Tuesday, as the area
of high pressure slides into Canada, and a frontal system
approaches the western Bering/Aleutians. In advance of this
approaching western front, a few disturbances move into the
Bering. Southerly flow on the backside of the high and ahead of
these disturbances look sufficient to finally pull the front and
moisture northward into the southern Mat-Su Valleys and Copper
Basin, based on the latest model runs.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

With broad high pressure persisting over the Bering Sea/ eastern
Siberia, offshore flow and a cooling trend will continue over the
Kuskokwim Delta. Though it's tough to rule out fog with such a
clear night, it's most likely that persistent dry northwest flow
will stave off fog. Meanwhile, a low in the North Pacific is
lifting a warm front towards the AKPEN, which could bring some
precipitation into the Bristol Bay area this afternoon, but more
likely precip will be contained to the AKPEN/Alaska Range today.
Tonight into Monday, another front associated with that low
complex will push into the AKPEN again, and should track farther
north than today's front. Precipitation is likely in Bristol Bay
Monday morning, and precipitation types are a challenge. With warm
southerly flow aloft, precipitation in low lying areas will
either be rain, or freezing rain. Surface temperatures Monday
morning will be the deciding factor. With steady cloud cover and
no great source of cold air advection, it will be hard for coastal
areas, including Dillingham, to get much below freezing. Thus,
though there's a decent chance of brief freezing rain along the
coast, it's unlikely that any ice will stick thus impacts should
be minimal. Farther inland, e.g., Koliganek and New Stuyahok,
conditions will be colder and could see some icing. With southeast
flow, expect a transition to rain later in the day. Precipitation
will spread north into the Kuskokwim Valley/Delta Monday night
into Tuesday morning. Freezing rain is of particular concern, and
really the only factor diminishing confidence is that it's still a
few days out and models have had some inconsistency with the
progression of the front.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3)...

A warm front associated with a North Pacific low is lifting
northward over the AKPEN into Bristol Bay, bringing small craft
advisory level conditions and precipitation. Meanwhile, high
pressure over the Bering Sea/ eastern Siberia continues,
maintaining mostly benign conditions and general anticyclonic flow
in the western Bering. As the warm front continues northward
Monday, small craft advisory level winds and seas will spread to
the central Aleutians, Kuskokwim Delta coast and Pribilof
Islands. A storm force low will approach the western Aleutians
Monday into Tuesday.

&&

.MARINE (Days 3 through 5: Monday through Wednesday)... A
moderately strong low south of the Alaska Peninsula may produce
gale force wind south of the Alaska Peninsula and Eastern
Aleutians through Tuesday. A strong low is moving into the
western Bering Sea Tuesday and storm force winds are possible
along and in advance of its front across the western Aleutians and
western Bering Sea offshore regions Tuesday.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7: Monday through Saturday)...
The models are in good agreement amplifying the ridge into the
Bering Sea at the surface and aloft Monda.y through Wednesday. As a
result strong low pressure and a front move into the western
Bering Sea and moderate low pressure remains south of the Alaska
Peninsula. The models then depart from yesterday's solution that
held the low south of the Alaska Peninsula, and now are trending
to a low over or crossing the Alaska Peninsula Wednesday as the
Ridge in the Bering retrogrades west and weakens. With this in
mind, and the lacking consistency in the model solutions, we will
trend toward the ensemble solutions that are keeping a low in the
Gulf of Alaska and along or south of the Alaska Peninsula while
maintaining the high pressure over northeast Alaska. Over the
Bering Sea and Aleutians the trend will be to hold weak high
pressure over the west central Bering with moderate to strong lows
in the extreme western Bering Sea and Kamchatka Peninsula.

The models persist with bringing colder conditions to the Copper
River Basin Wednesday, with the much colder air moving in
Thursday. Friday and Saturday solutions are hinting at a return to
the warmer air for the Copper River Basin, however, confidence in
the models is low at that time.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...Gales...127.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...DK
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...PD
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...MM
MARINE/LONG TERM...SA

The office that day

Everything else NWS Anchorage, AK issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Nov 3, 3:16 PM AKSTGale WarningAFC3 days
Nov 3, 3:16 PM AKSTSmall Craft AdvisoryAFC60 hr
Nov 3, 3:22 PM AKSTGale WarningAFC36 hr
Nov 3, 3:22 PM AKSTSmall Craft AdvisoryAFC9 days
Nov 3, 3:28 PM AKSTWinter Storm WatchAFC13 hr
Nov 3, 9:34 PM AKSTSmall Craft AdvisoryAFC18 hr
Nov 4, 3:44 AM AKSTGale WarningAFC24 hr
Nov 4, 3:44 AM AKSTStorm WarningAFC24 hr
Nov 4, 3:47 AM AKSTGale WarningAFC60 hr
Nov 4, 3:47 AM AKSTSmall Craft AdvisoryAFC72 hr
Nov 4, 4:01 AM AKSTWinter Storm WarningAFC51 hr

Nearby

Gale Warnings in Alaska, 2019Every gale warning in 2019

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text.