Alert archive / Alaska / Gale Warnings in 2019
Gale Warning 574, NWS Anchorage, AK
NWS Anchorage, AK issued this gale warning at Nov 3, 2019, 3:17 PM AKST. It was in force for 48 hr. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.
The area
The counties it named.
The facts
- Issued
- Nov 3, 2019, 3:17 PM AKST (00:17 UTC)
- Expired
- Nov 5, 2019, 3:22 PM AKST
- In force
- 48 hr
- Issued by
- NWS Anchorage, AK
The text
As transmitted.
188 FZAK62 PAFC 040017 OFFALU Offshore Waters Forecast National Weather Service Anchorage AK 317 PM AKST Sun Nov 3 2019 Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height. PKZ499-041415- 317 PM AKST Sun Nov 3 2019 .SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA... A 997 mb North Pacific low moves to 48N 163W at 992 mb for Tue afternoon. A Kamchatka front extends into the the western Aleutians and Bering for Tue afternoon. NOTICE: Please comment on a U.S. Coast Guard proposal to terminate medium frequency NAVTEX broadcasts. Visit https://go.usa.gov/xVHc3 to submit comments by November 12, 2019. $$ PKZ411-041415- Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International Dateline- 317 PM AKST Sun Nov 3 2019 ...GALE WARNING MONDAY NIGHT... .TONIGHT...SE wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. .MON...SE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft. .MON NIGHT...SE wind 15 to 30 kt increasing to 25 to 40 kt after midnight. Seas 6 to 11 ft. .TUE...SE wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 8 to 16 ft. .TUE NIGHT...SE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 16 ft. .WED...NW wind up to 20 kt. Seas 8 to 12 ft. .THU THROUGH FRI...NE wind up to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft. $$ PKZ412-041415- Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N- 317 PM AKST Sun Nov 3 2019 .TONIGHT...NE wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. .MON AND MON NIGHT...NE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 9 ft. .TUE...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft. .TUE NIGHT...NE wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. .WED THROUGH FRI...N wind up to 20 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft. $$ PKZ413-041415- Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N- 317 PM AKST Sun Nov 3 2019 .TONIGHT...NE wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. .MON...NE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 9 ft. .MON NIGHT...NE wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft. .TUE...NE wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft. .TUE NIGHT...E wind up to 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. .WED THROUGH FRI...N wind up to 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. $$ PKZ414-041415- Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W- 317 PM AKST Sun Nov 3 2019 .TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. .MON...N wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. .MON NIGHT...N wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft. .TUE...N wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft. .TUE NIGHT...N wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 9 ft. .WED THROUGH FRI...NE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft. $$
5 follow-up statements
298 FZAK62 PAFC 040018 CCA OFFALU Offshore Waters Forecast National Weather Service Anchorage AK 317 PM AKST Sun Nov 3 2019 Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height. PKZ499-041415- 317 PM AKST Sun Nov 3 2019 .SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA... A 997 mb North Pacific low moves to 48N 163W at 992 mb for Tue afternoon. A Kamchatka front extends into the western Aleutians and Bering Sea for Tue afternoon. NOTICE: Please comment on a U.S. Coast Guard proposal to terminate medium frequency NAVTEX broadcasts. Visit https://go.usa.gov/xVHc3 to submit comments by November 12, 2019. $$ PKZ411-041415- Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International Dateline- 317 PM AKST Sun Nov 3 2019 ...GALE WARNING MONDAY NIGHT... .TONIGHT...SE wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. .MON...SE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft. .MON NIGHT...SE wind 15 to 30 kt increasing to 25 to 40 kt after midnight. Seas 6 to 11 ft. .TUE...SE wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 8 to 16 ft. .TUE NIGHT...SE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 16 ft. .WED...NW wind up to 20 kt. Seas 8 to 12 ft. .THU THROUGH FRI...NE wind up to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft. $$ PKZ412-041415- Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N- 317 PM AKST Sun Nov 3 2019 .TONIGHT...NE wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. .MON AND MON NIGHT...NE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 9 ft. .TUE...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft. .TUE NIGHT...NE wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. .WED THROUGH FRI...N wind up to 20 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft. $$ PKZ413-041415- Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N- 317 PM AKST Sun Nov 3 2019 .TONIGHT...NE wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. .MON...NE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 9 ft. .MON NIGHT...NE wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft. .TUE...NE wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft. .TUE NIGHT...E wind up to 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. .WED THROUGH FRI...N wind up to 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. $$ PKZ414-041415- Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W- 317 PM AKST Sun Nov 3 2019 .TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. .MON...N wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. .MON NIGHT...N wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft. .TUE...N wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft. .TUE NIGHT...N wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 9 ft. .WED THROUGH FRI...NE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft. $$
308 FZAK62 PAFC 041242 OFFALU Offshore Waters Forecast National Weather Service Anchorage AK 342 AM AKST Mon Nov 4 2019 Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height. PKZ499-050200- 342 AM AKST Mon Nov 4 2019 .SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA... A front over the Alaska Peninsula will move into the eastern Bering this afternoon and remain there into Tue. A 998 mb low forms at 56N 163W Tue afternoon and moves to 56N 166W at 993 mb Tue night. A 967 mb North Pacific low moves to 51N 164E this evening and to 54N 163E at 960 mb Tue morning. NOTICE: Please comment on a U.S. Coast Guard proposal to terminate medium frequency NAVTEX broadcasts. Visit https://go.usa.gov/xVHc3 to submit comments by November 12, 2019. $$ PKZ411-050200- Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International Dateline- 342 AM AKST Mon Nov 4 2019 ...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND TUESDAY... .TODAY...SE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft. .TONIGHT...E wind 15 to 30 kt increasing to 25 to 40 kt after midnight. Seas 6 to 11 ft. .TUE...SE wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft. Rain. .TUE NIGHT...SE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 16 ft. .WED...N wind up to 20 kt. Seas 8 to 11 ft. .THU THROUGH FRI...NE wind up to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft. $$ PKZ412-050200- Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N- 342 AM AKST Mon Nov 4 2019 .TODAY...NE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft. .TONIGHT...NE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft. .TUE...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft. .TUE NIGHT...NE wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. .WED THROUGH FRI...N wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 11 ft. $$ PKZ413-050200- Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N- 342 AM AKST Mon Nov 4 2019 .TODAY...NE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 9 ft. .TONIGHT...NE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft. .TUE...NE wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft. .TUE NIGHT...NE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft. .WED THROUGH FRI...N wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 10 ft. $$ PKZ414-050200- Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W- 342 AM AKST Mon Nov 4 2019 .TODAY...N wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. .TONIGHT...N wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 11 ft. .TUE...NE wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft. .TUE NIGHT...NE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft. .WED THROUGH FRI...NE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft. $$
640 FZAK62 PAFC 050023 OFFALU Offshore Waters Forecast National Weather Service Anchorage AK 323 PM AKST Mon Nov 4 2019 Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height. PKZ499-051430- 323 PM AKST Mon Nov 4 2019 .SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA... A 989 mb North Pacific low Tue afternoon moves to 54N 169W for Wed afternoon. A front associated with a 977 mb Kamchatka low pushes into the western Aleutians and Bering then dissipates Wed afternoon. NOTICE: Please comment on a U.S. Coast Guard proposal to terminate medium frequency NAVTEX broadcasts. Visit https://go.usa.gov/xVHc3 to submit comments by November 12, 2019. $$ PKZ411-051430- Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International Dateline- 323 PM AKST Mon Nov 4 2019 ...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY... .TONIGHT...E wind 15 to 30 kt increasing to 25 to 40 kt after midnight. Seas 7 to 12 ft. .TUE...SE wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft. Rain. .TUE NIGHT...SE wind 20 to 30 kt diminishing to 10 to 25 kt after midnight. Seas 9 to 16 ft. .WED AND WED NIGHT...N wind up to 20 kt. Seas 7 to 11 ft. .THU...N wind up to 20 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft. .FRI THROUGH SAT...E wind up to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft. $$ PKZ412-051430- Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N- 323 PM AKST Mon Nov 4 2019 .TONIGHT...NE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft. .TUE...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft. .TUE NIGHT...NE wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. .WED...NE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 12 ft. .WED NIGHT...NE wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 9 to 12 ft. .THU THROUGH SAT...NE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft. $$ PKZ413-051430- Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N- 323 PM AKST Mon Nov 4 2019 .TONIGHT...NE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft. .TUE...NE wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft. .TUE NIGHT...NE wind 15 to 25 kt diminishing to up to 20 kt after midnight. Seas 9 ft. .WED...N wind up to 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. .WED NIGHT...NW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft. .THU THROUGH SAT...NE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft. $$ PKZ414-051430- Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W- 323 PM AKST Mon Nov 4 2019 .TONIGHT...N wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 11 ft. .TUE...NE wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. .TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED...NE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft. .WED NIGHT...E wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft. .THU...E wind up to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 9 ft. .FRI THROUGH SAT...N wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. $$
525 FZAK62 PAFC 051226 OFFALU Offshore Waters Forecast National Weather Service Anchorage AK 326 AM AKST Tue Nov 5 2019 Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height. PKZ499-060200- 326 AM AKST Tue Nov 5 2019 .SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA... A front associated with a North Pacific low remains over the central Bering through Wed morning. The low center at 51N 158W at 993 mb Wed morning moves to 54N 171W at 988 mb Thu morning. A front associated with a 968 mb Kamchatka low remains over the western Bering before dissipating Wed morning. A front associated with a 991 mb low at 51N 165E Wed night moves to 51N 170E by Thu morning. NOTICE: Please comment on a U.S. Coast Guard proposal to terminate medium frequency NAVTEX broadcasts. Visit https://go.usa.gov/xVHc3 to submit comments by November 12, 2019. $$ PKZ411-060200- Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International Dateline- 326 AM AKST Tue Nov 5 2019 ...GALE WARNING TODAY... .TODAY...SE wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft. Rain. .TONIGHT...SE wind 20 to 30 kt diminishing to 10 to 25 kt after midnight. Seas 10 to 16 ft. Rain. .WED...N wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 10 ft. .WED NIGHT...N wind up to 20 kt. Seas 7 to 11 ft. .THU...N wind up to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft. .FRI THROUGH SAT...SE wind up to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft. $$ PKZ412-060200- Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N- 326 AM AKST Tue Nov 5 2019 .TODAY...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft. .TONIGHT...NE wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. .WED...NE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 12 ft. .WED NIGHT...NE wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 9 to 13 ft. .THU...NE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft. .FRI THROUGH SAT...E wind up to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft. $$ PKZ413-060200- Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N- 326 AM AKST Tue Nov 5 2019 .TODAY...NE wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft. .TONIGHT...NE wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. .WED...N wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. .WED NIGHT...NW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 11 ft. .THU THROUGH FRI...W wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft. .SAT...SE wind up to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 9 ft. $$ PKZ414-060200- Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W- 326 AM AKST Tue Nov 5 2019 .TODAY...NE wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. .TONIGHT...NE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft. .WED...E wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft. .WED NIGHT...E wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 9 ft. .THU THROUGH SAT...NE wind up to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 8 ft. $$
384 FZAK62 PAFC 060022 OFFALU Offshore Waters Forecast National Weather Service Anchorage AK 322 PM AKST Tue Nov 5 2019 Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height. PKZ499-061345- 322 PM AKST Tue Nov 5 2019 .SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA... A front over the western Aleutians associated with a 974 mb Kamchatka low will dissipate by Wed morning. A 992 mb low at 52N 158W Tue afternoon moves to 56N 171W at 986 mb by Wed afternoon and then continues to 56N 173W at 987 mb by Thu afternoon. A 992 mb low at 50N 166E Wed afternoon moves to 49N 178E at 998 mb by Thu afternoon. NOTICE: Please comment on a U.S. Coast Guard proposal to terminate medium frequency NAVTEX broadcasts. Visit https://go.usa.gov/xVHc3 to submit comments by November 12, 2019. $$ PKZ411-061345- Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International Dateline- 322 PM AKST Tue Nov 5 2019 .TONIGHT...E wind 20 to 30 kt diminishing to 10 to 25 kt after midnight. Seas 9 to 16 ft. Rain. .WED...NE wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 8 to 11 ft. .WED NIGHT...N wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft. .THU...N wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft. .THU NIGHT...N wind up to 20 kt. Seas 9 to 13 ft. .FRI THROUGH SUN...SE wind up to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft. $$ PKZ412-061345- Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N- 322 PM AKST Tue Nov 5 2019 .TONIGHT...NE wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 11 ft. .WED...NE wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 10 to 14 ft. .WED NIGHT THROUGH THU...NE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft. .THU NIGHT...NE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft. .FRI THROUGH SUN...E wind up to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft. $$ PKZ413-061345- Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N- 322 PM AKST Tue Nov 5 2019 .TONIGHT...NE wind 15 to 25 kt diminishing to up to 20 kt after midnight. Seas 9 ft. .WED...N wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. .WED NIGHT...NW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 8 to 11 ft. .THU...NW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft. .THU NIGHT...NW wind up to 20 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft. .FRI...W wind up to 15 kt. Seas 5 to 9 ft. .SAT...SE wind up to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 9 ft. .SUN...S wind 10 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft. $$ PKZ414-061345- Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W- 322 PM AKST Tue Nov 5 2019 .TONIGHT...NE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 11 ft. .WED...E wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft. Rain. .WED NIGHT...E wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft. .THU...SE wind up to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft. .THU NIGHT THROUGH SUN...E wind up to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft. $$
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this gale warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Anchorage, AK wrote its last area forecast discussion before this gale warning went out at Nov 3, 4:49 AM AKST, 10 hours 28 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Nov 3, 4:49 AM AKST, 10 hours 28 minutes before
Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Anchorage AK 449 AM AKST Sun Nov 3 2019 .ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS... High pressure continues to dominate over the Gulf, keeping upper level flow along the north Gulf coast out of the west. The ridging is also helping to bring more warm air to the southern mainland as a long fetch of warm air rides over the ridge from the North Pacific. Another area of high pressure sits over the northern Bering helping to keep weak outflow winds over southwest Alaska. Underneath the effects of the high pressure, the southern mainland is seeing areas of fog and stratus lasting through the night. && .MODEL DISCUSSION... The models are in good agreement through the short term for the main synoptic features leading to high confidence with the pattern. However, fog and stratus will continue to be a forecast challenge for areas around the southern mainland. && .AVIATION... PANC...Light winds will persist. Fog and stratus will dissipate in the early afternoon and then VFR conditions will persist. There is a chance that fog could return tonight as there is disagreement amongst the models on how dry conditions will be. This leads to lower confidence tonight. && .SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)... (Sunday through Tuesday) Fog has once again reasserted itself across much of the region, with the lowest visibilities along the eastern side of the Cook Inlet from north of Kenai, through Anchorage, into the Palmer area. Here, visibilities have mainly been in the 1 to 3 mile range, occasionally down to 1/4 of a mile. Otherwise, its been less of a impedance for the morning drivers. This has occurred as winds remain light, and a strong inversion (area of warmer air aloft that acts like a "lid", preventing air to rise) which has allowed surface moisture from our recent rainfall to remain entrenched near the surface. Aiding this process is an area of low pressure in the north Pacific, and its attendant warm front stretching across the southern Gulf. This front should spread rainfall far enough north to reach the southern coast, before stalling once again. Meanwhile, an area of low pressure stretched from eastern Russia, across the Seward Peninsula, then across central portions of the state. With our region being "sandwiched" in between, look for the morning fog to gradually dissipate as it once again lifts into a stratus deck by late morning. The good news is, the high pressure will slide by just north and east of the Copper Basin, while the front to the south approaches. This results in a tightening pressure gradient, allowing increasing northerly winds to develop, which should be sufficient to mix out the air enough from north to south to allow the fog to become less of an issue for tonight/Monday morning. These winds will get funneled through area gaps/passes, with the strongest winds expected in the Broad pass, Thompson Pass, and near Palmer as the Matanuska wind cranks up somewhat. This pattern begins to change for Monday and Tuesday, as the area of high pressure slides into Canada, and a frontal system approaches the western Bering/Aleutians. In advance of this approaching western front, a few disturbances move into the Bering. Southerly flow on the backside of the high and ahead of these disturbances look sufficient to finally pull the front and moisture northward into the southern Mat-Su Valleys and Copper Basin, based on the latest model runs. && .SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)... With broad high pressure persisting over the Bering Sea/ eastern Siberia, offshore flow and a cooling trend will continue over the Kuskokwim Delta. Though it's tough to rule out fog with such a clear night, it's most likely that persistent dry northwest flow will stave off fog. Meanwhile, a low in the North Pacific is lifting a warm front towards the AKPEN, which could bring some precipitation into the Bristol Bay area this afternoon, but more likely precip will be contained to the AKPEN/Alaska Range today. Tonight into Monday, another front associated with that low complex will push into the AKPEN again, and should track farther north than today's front. Precipitation is likely in Bristol Bay Monday morning, and precipitation types are a challenge. With warm southerly flow aloft, precipitation in low lying areas will either be rain, or freezing rain. Surface temperatures Monday morning will be the deciding factor. With steady cloud cover and no great source of cold air advection, it will be hard for coastal areas, including Dillingham, to get much below freezing. Thus, though there's a decent chance of brief freezing rain along the coast, it's unlikely that any ice will stick thus impacts should be minimal. Farther inland, e.g., Koliganek and New Stuyahok, conditions will be colder and could see some icing. With southeast flow, expect a transition to rain later in the day. Precipitation will spread north into the Kuskokwim Valley/Delta Monday night into Tuesday morning. Freezing rain is of particular concern, and really the only factor diminishing confidence is that it's still a few days out and models have had some inconsistency with the progression of the front. && .SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3)... A warm front associated with a North Pacific low is lifting northward over the AKPEN into Bristol Bay, bringing small craft advisory level conditions and precipitation. Meanwhile, high pressure over the Bering Sea/ eastern Siberia continues, maintaining mostly benign conditions and general anticyclonic flow in the western Bering. As the warm front continues northward Monday, small craft advisory level winds and seas will spread to the central Aleutians, Kuskokwim Delta coast and Pribilof Islands. A storm force low will approach the western Aleutians Monday into Tuesday. && .MARINE (Days 3 through 5: Monday through Wednesday)... A moderately strong low south of the Alaska Peninsula may produce gale force wind south of the Alaska Peninsula and Eastern Aleutians through Tuesday. A strong low is moving into the western Bering Sea Tuesday and storm force winds are possible along and in advance of its front across the western Aleutians and western Bering Sea offshore regions Tuesday. && .LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7: Monday through Saturday)... The models are in good agreement amplifying the ridge into the Bering Sea at the surface and aloft Monda.y through Wednesday. As a result strong low pressure and a front move into the western Bering Sea and moderate low pressure remains south of the Alaska Peninsula. The models then depart from yesterday's solution that held the low south of the Alaska Peninsula, and now are trending to a low over or crossing the Alaska Peninsula Wednesday as the Ridge in the Bering retrogrades west and weakens. With this in mind, and the lacking consistency in the model solutions, we will trend toward the ensemble solutions that are keeping a low in the Gulf of Alaska and along or south of the Alaska Peninsula while maintaining the high pressure over northeast Alaska. Over the Bering Sea and Aleutians the trend will be to hold weak high pressure over the west central Bering with moderate to strong lows in the extreme western Bering Sea and Kamchatka Peninsula. The models persist with bringing colder conditions to the Copper River Basin Wednesday, with the much colder air moving in Thursday. Friday and Saturday solutions are hinting at a return to the warmer air for the Copper River Basin, however, confidence in the models is low at that time. && .AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PUBLIC...NONE. MARINE...Gales...127. FIRE WEATHER...NONE. && SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...DK SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...PD SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...MM MARINE/LONG TERM...SA
The office that day
Everything else NWS Anchorage, AK issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3, 3:16 PM AKST | Gale Warning | AFC | 3 days | |
| Nov 3, 3:16 PM AKST | Small Craft Advisory | AFC | 60 hr | |
| Nov 3, 3:22 PM AKST | Gale Warning | AFC | 36 hr | |
| Nov 3, 3:22 PM AKST | Small Craft Advisory | AFC | 9 days | |
| Nov 3, 3:28 PM AKST | Winter Storm Watch | AFC | 13 hr | |
| Nov 3, 9:34 PM AKST | Small Craft Advisory | AFC | 18 hr | |
| Nov 4, 3:44 AM AKST | Gale Warning | AFC | 24 hr | |
| Nov 4, 3:44 AM AKST | Storm Warning | AFC | 24 hr | |
| Nov 4, 3:47 AM AKST | Gale Warning | AFC | 60 hr | |
| Nov 4, 3:47 AM AKST | Small Craft Advisory | AFC | 72 hr | |
| Nov 4, 4:01 AM AKST | Winter Storm Warning | AFC | 51 hr |
Nearby
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text.