Gale Warning 540, NWS Anchorage, AK

150 
FZAK52 PAFC 161859 CCA
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
1059 AM AKDT Wed Oct 16 2019

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-170045-
1059 AM AKDT Wed Oct 16 2019
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 969 mb low 60 nm south of Saint Paul moves to 75 nm north of
Port Heiden at 980 mb Wed night before moving inland Thu morning.
A 974 mb low 110 nm northeast of Saint Paul moves to 130 nm south
of Mekoryuk at 977 mb Thu morning before moving to 50 nm northwest
of Port Heiden at 986 mb Fri morning.

$$

PKZ150-170045-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
1059 AM AKDT Wed Oct 16 2019

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 35 kt becoming W 45 kt in the afternoon. Seas 12
ft building to 20 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.TONIGHT...W wind 45 kt. Seas 24 ft.
.THU...W wind 35 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.FRI...W wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ155-170045-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
1059 AM AKDT Wed Oct 16 2019

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...W wind 50 kt. Seas 27 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 40 kt. Seas 25 ft.
.THU...W wind 35 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ160-170045-
Bristol Bay-
1059 AM AKDT Wed Oct 16 2019

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...W wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft. Rain.
.THU...W wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN...S wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ165-170045-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
1059 AM AKDT Wed Oct 16 2019

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...W wind 60 kt, Seas 37 ft. From Port Moller E, SW wind 45
kt becoming W 55 kt in the afternoon, Seas 19 ft building to 31 ft 
in the afternoon. Rain.
.TONIGHT...W wind 40 kt. Seas 24 ft. Rain showers.
.THU...W wind 35 kt. Seas 22 ft. Rain showers.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ170-170045-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
1059 AM AKDT Wed Oct 16 2019

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...W wind 60 kt diminishing to 45 kt in the afternoon. Seas
37 ft. Rain showers. Isolated thunderstorms.
.TONIGHT...W wind 40 kt. Seas 25 ft.
.THU...W wind 35 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SAT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ171-170045-
Unalaska Bay-
1059 AM AKDT Wed Oct 16 2019

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...W wind 50 kt diminishing to 40 kt in the afternoon. Seas
8 ft. Rain showers.
.TONIGHT...W wind 40 kt diminishing to 30 kt after midnight. 
Seas 6 ft.
.THU...W wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ172-170045-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
1059 AM AKDT Wed Oct 16 2019

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...W wind 50 kt. Seas 24 ft. Rain showers.
.TONIGHT...W wind 40 kt. Seas 22 ft.
.THU...W wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ173-170045-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
1059 AM AKDT Wed Oct 16 2019

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W wind 45 kt. Seas 32 ft subsiding to 26 ft in the
afternoon. Rain showers.
.TONIGHT...W wind 35 kt. Seas 23 ft.
.THU...W wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.FRI...W wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SAT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ174-170045-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
1059 AM AKDT Wed Oct 16 2019

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W wind 40 kt. Seas 27 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 35 kt. Seas 22 ft.
.THU...W wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SUN...W wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ175-170045-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
1059 AM AKDT Wed Oct 16 2019

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...W wind 45 kt. Seas 26 ft. Rain showers.
.TONIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.THU...W wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...W wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ176-170045-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
1059 AM AKDT Wed Oct 16 2019

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...W wind 40 kt. Seas 24 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.THU...W wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.FRI...W wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...W wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ177-170045-
Adak to Kiska-
1059 AM AKDT Wed Oct 16 2019

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...W wind 45 kt diminishing to 30 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 23 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.THU...W wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.FRI...W wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ178-170045-
Kiska to Attu-
1059 AM AKDT Wed Oct 16 2019

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...W wind 40 kt diminishing to 30 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 23 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.THU...W wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ179-170045-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
1059 AM AKDT Wed Oct 16 2019

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...W wind 60 kt diminishing to 40 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 31 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...W wind 35 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.THU...W wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ180-170045-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
1059 AM AKDT Wed Oct 16 2019

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE wind 35 kt diminishing to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas
14 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...W wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.THU...N wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI...S wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ181-170045-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
1059 AM AKDT Wed Oct 16 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI...E wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ185-170045-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
1059 AM AKDT Wed Oct 16 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.THU...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.THU NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

246 
FZAK52 PAFC 162339
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
339 PM AKDT Wed Oct 16 2019

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-171230-
339 PM AKDT Wed Oct 16 2019
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 975 mb low 110 nm North of St Paul Island moves over the Alaska
Peninsula to merge with a Gulf of Alaska low for Fri afternoon. 
Its front pushes into Western Alaska by Fri afternoon. A 980 mb 
low 420 nm North of Attu moves to 215 nm Southwest of St Matthew
Island at 986 mb for Fri afternoon. Its front swings into the 
Central Aleutians and Bering through Fri afternoon.

$$

PKZ150-171230-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
339 PM AKDT Wed Oct 16 2019

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 50 kt. Seas 27 ft. Rain showers. Isolated
thunderstorms.
.THU...W wind 35 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 35 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.FRI...W wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON...S wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ155-171230-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
339 PM AKDT Wed Oct 16 2019

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 45 kt. Seas 25 ft. Isolated
thunderstorms.
.THU...W wind 35 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.FRI...W wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON...S wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ160-171230-
Bristol Bay-
339 PM AKDT Wed Oct 16 2019

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind increasing to 35 kt then becoming NW after 
midnight. Seas building to 13 ft. Rain showers. 
.THU...W wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt becoming NW after midnight. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN...S wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ165-171230-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
339 PM AKDT Wed Oct 16 2019

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...W wind 45 kt. Seas 24 ft. Rain showers. Isolated
thunderstorms.
.THU...W wind 40 kt. Seas 21 ft. Rain showers.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft. Rain showers.
.FRI...W wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ170-171230-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
339 PM AKDT Wed Oct 16 2019

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...W wind 40 kt. Seas 23 ft. Rain showers.
.THU...W wind 35 kt. Seas 19 ft. Rain showers.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ171-171230-
Unalaska Bay-
339 PM AKDT Wed Oct 16 2019

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 35 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain showers.
.THU...W wind 30 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain showers.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...E wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ172-171230-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
339 PM AKDT Wed Oct 16 2019

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 40 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.THU...W wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON...E wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ173-171230-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
339 PM AKDT Wed Oct 16 2019

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 35 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.THU...W wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft. Rain showers.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ174-171230-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
339 PM AKDT Wed Oct 16 2019

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 35 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.THU...W wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN...W wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ175-171230-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
339 PM AKDT Wed Oct 16 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft. Rain showers.
.THU...W wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft. Rain showers.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.FRI...W wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...W wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON...N wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ176-171230-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
339 PM AKDT Wed Oct 16 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.THU...W wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.FRI...W wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...W wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ177-171230-
Adak to Kiska-
339 PM AKDT Wed Oct 16 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.THU...W wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.FRI...W wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT THROUGH MON...N wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ178-171230-
Kiska to Attu-
339 PM AKDT Wed Oct 16 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.THU...W wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT THROUGH MON...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ179-171230-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
339 PM AKDT Wed Oct 16 2019

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...W wind 40 kt. Seas 20 ft. Rain showers.
.THU...W wind 35 kt diminishing to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas
17 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.FRI...S wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ180-171230-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
339 PM AKDT Wed Oct 16 2019

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 35 kt...except southeast 20 kt along the coast N
of Cape Newenham. Seas 16 ft.
.THU...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ181-171230-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
339 PM AKDT Wed Oct 16 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...E wind 25 kt becoming NE 15 kt after midnight. Seas
11 ft.
.THU...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ185-171230-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
339 PM AKDT Wed Oct 16 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.THU...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.THU NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt E of Saint Matthew Island... E
15 kt W of Saint Matthew Island. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI...E wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON...N wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

659 
FZAK52 PAFC 171135
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
335 AM AKDT Thu Oct 17 2019

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-180015-
335 AM AKDT Thu Oct 17 2019
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 978 mb low 70 nm southwest of Cape Newenham moves across the 
AKPEN by Thu night. A 984 mb low 335 nm northeast of Shemya moves
to 220 nm northwest of Saint Paul at 987 mb Fri morning and 
remains nearly stationary through Sat morning. A 998 mb low 210 nm
southwest of Adak Fri morning moves to 100 nm northwest of Cold
Bay at 992 mb Sat morning.

$$

PKZ150-180015-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
335 AM AKDT Thu Oct 17 2019

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W wind 35 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 35 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.FRI...W wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SAT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...S wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ155-180015-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
335 AM AKDT Thu Oct 17 2019

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W wind 40 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 40 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.FRI...W wind 30 kt becoming SW 20 kt in the afternoon. From the
Shumagin Islands E, W wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...S wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ160-180015-
Bristol Bay-
335 AM AKDT Thu Oct 17 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 25 kt becoming NE 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas
11 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ165-180015-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
335 AM AKDT Thu Oct 17 2019

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...W wind 40 kt except W 35 kt from Port Moller E. Seas 24
ft. Rain showers.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft. Rain showers.
.FRI...W wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON...S wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ170-180015-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
335 AM AKDT Thu Oct 17 2019

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...W wind 35 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain showers.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ171-180015-
Unalaska Bay-
335 AM AKDT Thu Oct 17 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain showers.
.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain showers.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ172-180015-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
335 AM AKDT Thu Oct 17 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain showers.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ173-180015-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
335 AM AKDT Thu Oct 17 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft. Rain showers.
.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain showers.
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ174-180015-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
335 AM AKDT Thu Oct 17 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain showers.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...W wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ175-180015-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
335 AM AKDT Thu Oct 17 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft. Rain showers.
.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.FRI...W wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...W wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ176-180015-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
335 AM AKDT Thu Oct 17 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.FRI...SW wind 25 kt becoming NW. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...W wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ177-180015-
Adak to Kiska-
335 AM AKDT Thu Oct 17 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.FRI...W wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT THROUGH MON...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ178-180015-
Kiska to Attu-
335 AM AKDT Thu Oct 17 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ179-180015-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
335 AM AKDT Thu Oct 17 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt. Seas 17 ft subsiding to
12 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...N wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ180-180015-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
335 AM AKDT Thu Oct 17 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ181-180015-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
335 AM AKDT Thu Oct 17 2019

.TODAY...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ185-180015-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
335 AM AKDT Thu Oct 17 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI...E wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON...N wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
453 PM AKDT Tue Oct 15 2019

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

There is an upper level low over the far western Bering Sea, and
another low center developing just north of the western Aleutians.
There is an upper low over the southern Gulf. High pressure is
over central and northern Alaska. There is a front along the
southwest coast of Alaska, stretching back to a surface low over
the northwest Bering. This surface low is the remnants of
"Hagibis", which is still fairly deep at 960 mb but is slowly
filling and moving west. There is a rather strong surface low
(around 966 mb) vertically stacked under the low north of the
western Aleutians, and this low is still deepening and moving
rapidly eastward. Winds on the south side of this low are
approaching hurricane force. Some moisture associated with the
Gulf low is along the north Gulf coast, moving very slowly
westward.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

The numerical models are in fairly good agreement on the synoptic
pattern through Thursday afternoon. The main differences involve
the handling of a low over the eastern Bering Wednesday morning as
it splits into several centers and rapidly moves eastward across
the Alaska Peninsula into the Gulf Thursday and Thursday night.
This doesn't impact the wind fields that much, and the forecast
confidence is near normal.

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions and light winds will persist through
tonight. Conditions could drop to MVFR Wednesday morning with
periods of flurries or very light snow.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3/Tuesday
night through Friday)...

High pressure continues to exist over much of mainland AK while
disorganized low pressure spins in the Gulf of Alaska. An area of
cloud cover has worked its way over the Copper River Basin with
enough instability to provide some light snow for Gulkana.
Otherwise, the only thing of note is the weak low pressure system
working its way over the eastern Kenai Peninsula and Prince
William Sound. Expect this will produce rain along the coast and
snow over higher elevations. There is still a chance some of this
moisture will spill over the Chugach and into Anchorage tomorrow
morning. Right now, it looks like flurries or a period of very
light snow with only a dusting at most expected, as it will remain
cold enough to snow at valley level. After the exit of this
system, its pretty quiet for Southcentral AK through the rest of
the week.

Disorganized and weakening low pressure will produce some gale
force winds in the western Gulf of Alaska tonight but will taper
off tomorrow. The next front enters the western Gulf of Alaska
tomorrow night from the AKPEN with gale force winds. This front
stays south of Kodiak Island though so much of the weather will
stay well offshore in the southern Gulf of Alaska.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...
(Tonight through Friday evening)

A front will approach the coast of the mainland before stalling
later tonight. Widespread precipitation will develop along and
ahead of this feature, as an over-running setup develops. As of
right now, the best chance to see any rain or snow looks to be
southwest of a line from Iliamna to Mekoryuk. Further north and
east, look for abundant cloud cover to dominate your weather,
which should help mitigate any concerns for fog development. As
the system moves away from the region on Thursday and Friday,
cloud cover will continue to be prevalent.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3)...
(Tonight through Friday evening)

This afternoon's forecast remains on track. The remnants of
Hagabis continue to shift away from the region towards Siberia,
with our next system of interest continuing to strengthen.
Currently, the storm is northeast of Shemya, where instability
continues to build as cold air advects into the region on the
backside of the storm. This is very evident in this afternoon's
satellite imagery, with the weather observer at Erickson Station
in Shemya reporting CB (cumulus nimbus) clouds in their most
recent observation. this is the type of cloud most commonly
associated with any thunderstorm development. This cold air will
continue to spread eastward, with the best chance of seeing any
thunderstorms being located along the southern flank of the
system.

Of bigger concern will be the winds and waves. Today's model runs
continue to be in excellent agreement, as they portray a compact
storm trekking across the southern Bering Sea. Widespread
sustained storm force winds are expected, with some hurricane
force winds along the immediate southwestern and southern flank
of the low. Similar to yesterday's storm, a very long fetch length
will be conducive to significant wave heights, which look to top
out near 40 feet.

Conditions look to improve for Thursday and Friday though, as the
storm exits the region to the east/southeast while weakening, with
winds dropping below headline criteria and wave heights
decreasing as well.

&&

.MARINE (Days 3 through 5)...

Westerly gales along the coastal waters near the eastern
Aleutians and Alaska Peninsula will diminish gradually Thursday
through Thursday night with winds across the Bering and Aleutians
expected for the most part to remain below gales through Friday
and Saturday. There are, however, a couple of smaller troughs
moving through the broader troughing on Friday and Saturday that
do bear watching with the potential to produce brief periods of
localized stronger winds in the central and eastern Aleutians as
they spin up.

For the Gulf, westerly winds near gale force are possible at times
in the southern Gulf Thursday and Friday as small troughs rotate
through the broader westerly flow but otherwise winds are expected
to remain below gales through Saturday.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...

By Friday, upper level troughing extending from a broad vertically
stacked low over the Bering will stretch east across much of
mainland Alaska, extending to a second vertically stacked low in
the central Gulf. A cut off upper level low over the Bristol Bay
area embedded in the broader troughing will lift to the northwest
over the Kuskowim Delta Friday night and Saturday while the low in
the Gulf moves slowly north.

A developing North Pacific frontal system located well to the
south of the Alaska Peninsula Friday night will track to the
northeast across the southern Gulf Saturday to reach the Southeast
Alaska Panhandle Sunday. In response, the upper low in the
central Bering will rotate southeastward over the eastern
Aleutians on Sunday before turning into a open trough and
continuing to the east just south of the Alaska Peninsula. Also
caught up in the same rotation, the upper low over the Kuskowim
Delta will swing to the northwest, moving offshore Sunday and then
turning south to swing by St Matthew Island and the Pribilofs
Sunday night and Monday before becoming quasi-stationary over the
eastern Bering offshore of the Kuskokwim Delta through midweek.

The next potentially rather strong low will track in from the
west, crossing the North Pacific well to the south of the western
Aleutians Sunday night and then beginning to turn to the
northeast Monday and Monday night while it is south of the
central and eastern Aleutians. While all the models are in good
agreement with the potential for this to be a powerful storm and
in fair agreement regarding the speed of its eastward progress,
there are very large differences regarding its north to south
position. The 12Z GFS has the furthest south track, keeping the
low well clear of the Aleutians as it rapidly deepens. Both the
ECMWF and the Canadian models curve the low to the northeast more
rapidly, bringing it just south of the western Alaska Peninsula
by Tuesday morning while the GFS solution's low remains roughly
350 miles further south. The ECMWF and Canadian models both then
bring low into Bristol Bay while the GFS tracks the low into the
Gulf for Wednesday and Thursday.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...High Wind Warning: 195.
MARINE...Hurricane Force Wind Warning: 413, 414.
Storm Warning: 155, 165, 170-173, 175, 176, 179, 412.
Gale Warning: 131, 132, 150, 160, 174, 177, 178, 180, 352, 411.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...BL
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...BB
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...PD
MARINE/LONG TERM...JR