Gale Warning 508, NWS Anchorage, AK

686 
FZAK61 PAFC 252354
OFFAER

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
354 PM AKDT Fri Oct 25 2019

Offshore waters forecast for the Gulf of Alaska West of 144W

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ399-261230-
354 PM AKDT Fri Oct 25 2019
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...

A front continues inland over the North Gulf Coast through Sat
morning. A second front extending from an Aleutian low moves into
the Gulf Sun. 

NOTICE: Please comment on a U.S. Coast Guard proposal
to terminate medium frequency NAVTEX broadcasts. Visit 
https://go.usa.gov/xVHc3 to submit comments by November 12, 2019.

$$

PKZ351-261230-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore North of 57N and West of 144W-
354 PM AKDT Fri Oct 25 2019

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 14 to 20 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 25 to 35 kt. Seas 15 to 21 ft.
.MON THROUGH WED...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.

$$

PKZ352-261230-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore South of 57N North of 55N and West of
144W-
354 PM AKDT Fri Oct 25 2019

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 10 to 20 kt becoming S 15 to 30 kt after
midnight. Seas 7 to 11 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft building to 10 to 18
ft in the afternoon.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 14 to 22 ft. Rain.
.SUN...SE wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 16 to 26 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 15 to 22 ft.
.MON THROUGH WED...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 16 ft.

$$

302 
FZAK61 PAFC 261158
OFFAER

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
358 AM AKDT Sat Oct 26 2019

Offshore waters forecast for the Gulf of Alaska West of 144W

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ399-270100-
358 AM AKDT Sat Oct 26 2019
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A strengthening frontal boundary from a Bering low remains in the
western Gulf through Sun before weakening over the northern to
central Gulf Sun night through Mon morning.

NOTICE: Please comment on a U.S. Coast Guard proposal to 
terminate medium frequency NAVTEX broadcasts. Visit 
https://go.usa.gov/xVHc3 to submit comments by November 12, 2019.

$$

PKZ351-270100-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore North of 57N and West of 144W-
358 AM AKDT Sat Oct 26 2019

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 5 to 9 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 13 to 20 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 25 to 35 kt. Seas 15 to 21 ft.
.MON THROUGH WED...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 16 ft.

$$

PKZ352-270100-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore South of 57N North of 55N and West of
144W-
358 AM AKDT Sat Oct 26 2019

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 8 to 16 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 14 to 22 ft. Rain.
.SUN...SE wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 16 to 25 ft. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 15 to 23 ft.
.MON THROUGH WED...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft.

$$

145 
FZAK61 PAFC 262328
OFFAER

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
328 PM AKDT Sat Oct 26 2019

Offshore waters forecast for the Gulf of Alaska West of 144W

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ399-271430-
328 PM AKDT Sat Oct 26 2019
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...

A front associated with a low in the eastern Bering will track
through the Gulf through Sun and weaken through Mon afternoon. 

NOTICE: Please comment on a U.S. Coast Guard proposal to terminate
medium frequency NAVTEX broadcasts. Visit https://go.usa.gov/xVHc3
to submit comments by November 12, 2019.

$$

PKZ351-271430-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore North of 57N and West of 144W-
328 PM AKDT Sat Oct 26 2019

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 25 to 35 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 25 to 35 kt. Seas 15 to 21 ft. Rain.
.MON...S wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 12 to 16 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...S wind 20 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft.
.THU...S wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ352-271430-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore South of 57N North of 55N and West of
144W-
328 PM AKDT Sat Oct 26 2019

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 14 to 22 ft. Rain.
.SUN...SE wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 16 to 24 ft. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 15 to 22 ft. Rain.
.MON...S wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 12 to 16 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TUE THROUGH THU...SW wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 9 to 15 ft.

$$

126 
FZAK61 PAFC 271130
OFFAER

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
330 AM AKDT Sun Oct 27 2019

Offshore waters forecast for the Gulf of Alaska West of 144W

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ399-280100-
330 AM AKDT Sun Oct 27 2019
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A front over the western Gulf will weaken as it moves to the
northern to central Gulf Sun night. This front will stall along
the north Gulf coast on Mon.  

NOTICE: Please comment on a U.S. Coast Guard proposal to 
terminate medium frequency NAVTEX broadcasts. Visit 
https://go.usa.gov/xVHc3 to submit comments by November 12, 2019.

$$

PKZ351-280100-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore North of 57N and West of 144W-
330 AM AKDT Sun Oct 27 2019

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 13 to 20 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 to 35 kt. Seas 15 to 21 ft. Rain.
.MON...S wind 30 kt diminishing to 10 to 20 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 14 to 17 ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind up to 20 kt. Seas 9 to 12 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...S wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 11 ft.
.THU...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ352-280100-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore South of 57N North of 55N and West of
144W-
330 AM AKDT Sun Oct 27 2019

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 16 to 25 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...S wind 25 to 35 kt. Seas 16 to 22 ft. Rain.
.MON...S wind 20 to 30 kt diminishing to 10 to 25 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 13 to 18 ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 9 to 12 ft.
.TUE THROUGH THU...SW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.

$$

617 
FZAK61 PAFC 272344
OFFAER

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
344 PM AKDT Sun Oct 27 2019

Offshore waters forecast for the Gulf of Alaska West of 144W

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ399-281230-
344 PM AKDT Sun Oct 27 2019
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...

A front over the central Gulf dissipates by Mon evening. A secondary
front enters the eastern Gulf Mon night before dissipating Tue 
afternoon.

NOTICE: Please comment on a U.S. Coast Guard proposal to 
terminate medium frequency NAVTEX broadcasts. Visit 
https://go.usa.gov/xVHc3 to submit comments by November 12, 2019.

$$

PKZ351-281230-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore North of 57N and West of 144W-
344 PM AKDT Sun Oct 27 2019

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 to 35 kt. Seas 15 to 21 ft. Rain.
.MON...S wind 30 kt diminishing to 10 to 20 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 14 to 17 ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TUE...S wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 8 to 11 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED...S wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft.
.THU...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.FRI...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft.

$$

PKZ352-281230-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore South of 57N North of 55N and West of
144W-
344 PM AKDT Sun Oct 27 2019

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 25 to 35 kt. Seas 16 to 22 ft. Rain.
.MON...S wind 20 to 30 kt diminishing to 10 to 25 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 13 to 18 ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 9 to 12 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 8 to 12 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 to 12 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...SW wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 9 to 15 ft.
.FRI...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 to 11 ft.

$$

258 
FZAK61 PAFC 281148
OFFAER

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
348 AM AKDT Mon Oct 28 2019

Offshore waters forecast for the Gulf of Alaska West of 144W

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ399-290130-
348 AM AKDT Mon Oct 28 2019
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A front located over the central Gulf will weaken as it moves to
the eastern Gulf Mon night.

NOTICE: Please comment on a U.S. Coast Guard proposal to 
terminate medium frequency NAVTEX broadcasts. Visit 
https://go.usa.gov/xVHc3 to submit comments by November 12, 2019.

$$

PKZ351-290130-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore North of 57N and West of 144W-
348 AM AKDT Mon Oct 28 2019

.TODAY...S wind 20 to 30 kt becoming SW 10 to 20 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 13 to 18 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...S wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TUE...S wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...SE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ352-290130-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore South of 57N North of 55N and West of
144W-
348 AM AKDT Mon Oct 28 2019

.TODAY...S wind 20 to 30 kt becoming SW 10 to 25 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 13 to 18 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 9 to 12 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 8 to 11 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 8 to 11 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...S wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
534 PM AKDT Thu Oct 24 2019

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
A trough over southern Alaska is moving slowly eastward and
continuing to weaken. Showers continue over much of the southern
mainland, but are ending from west-to-east over Southwest Alaska.
A few thunderstorms have been observed along the north Gulf coast.
A ridge of high pressure is building behind this low over the
eastern Bering. A strong vertically stacked low with a central
surface pressure of around 956 mb is situated to the south of the
western Aleutians and moving eastward. A front associated with
this low is brining fairly strong winds and rain to the central
and western Aleutians, and the the adjacent southern Bering Sea.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
The numerical models are in good agreement through Friday night.
On Saturday they begin to differ on the location of a low south of
the Aleutians. There continue to be issues with the handling of a
triple point low in the central/eastern Bering by late Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...VFR conditions and light winds will persist through this
evening. Ceilings should drop to MVFR in showers after midnight.
Precipitation type is expected to be rain, but there is a chance
of snow mixing in on Friday morning just before the precipitation
ends. VFR conditions are then expected Friday afternoon after the
precipitation ends.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...

A weakening low near the AKPEN will track eastward tonight.
Precipitation in moist southerly flow will continue ahead of the
low along the North Gulf Coast tonight into tomorrow. In
particular, an embedded shortwave has enhanced precipitation rates
over the Anchorage Bowl and into the Susitna Valley and will
likely persist into the evening. Expect cold air advection from
the west around the backside of the low, causing winds to ramp up
to gale force out of Kamishak Bay and over the Barren Islands. In
addition, as a weak shortwave passes over aloft, there will be
potential for a rain/snow mix in Anchorage. With weak forcing,
precipitation amounts will be light. Behind this wave,
precipitation will diminish over Southcentral and expect quiet
weather for the rest of the day... though the Copper River Basin
will likely be the slowest to clear.

Saturday, a front associated with a complex low over the
Bering/Aleutians will begin to approach Southcentral from the west.
Winds will be on the increase throughout the day, particularly
along Turnagain Arm and over higher elevations. Precipitation will
begin Saturday morning on Kodiak Island, then spread to the Kenai
Peninsula and Prince William Sound as the day goes on. With a
moisture fetch down to about 30N, expect heavy precipitation with
snow level generally above 3000 feet over much of Southcentral by
Sunday. More on this in the by long term discussion below.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1-3)...

Winds along the southwest coast will continue to diminish this
evening as a brief ridge builds for Friday. There is a weak upper
level shortwave tracking over the Kuskokwim Delta coast this
evening that will likely bring some trace snowfall overnight to
Nunivak Island and areas along the Kuskokwim Delta coast. By
Friday, a gale force front associated with a strong low in the
Bering arrives to the coast. This storm will bring gusty
southerly flow and abundant precipitation, as there is a long
fetch of subtropical moisture associated with this low. Current
thinking is that all precipitation will fall as rain over the
interior areas of Bristol Bay, as temperatures remain warm.
Meanwhile, father north, enough cold air may remain in place near
the surface to allow precipitation to start as snow, especially in
the lower Kuskokwim Valley region. However, as southerly flow
persists, temperatures will warm and a quick transition to rain is
expected by Saturday morning. Any snow accumulations will likely
be confined to the mountains. As the front pushes inland on
Saturday, southeasterly winds will increase across the greater
Bristol Bay region.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1-3)...

A strengthening storm force low currently centered south of the
western Aleutians continues to track eastward. Strong southerly
flow and rain will spread eastward across the Aleutian Chain
overnight, reaching the eastern Bering Friday morning. On the
backside of this low, cold air will be pulled down from the
northern Bering, bringing very gusty northerly winds to the
western Bering for Friday. There is still some uncertainty as to
where the low will track for the weekend, however strong northerly
flow will continue across the western Bering while southerly flow
is expected over the eastern Bering.

&&

.MARINE (Days 3 through 5: Sunday through Tuesday)...

Gulf of Alaska: A front will cause gale force southeasterly winds
across the southwestern Gulf around Kodiak Island through the day
on Sunday. There is a low chance of storm force winds southeast of
Kodiak Island late Sunday morning. The weakening front will move
into the northern Gulf with potential for gale force barrier jet
winds into Prince William Sound Sunday night. Beyond Sunday night,
the chances for gale force winds anywhere in the Gulf are low.

Bering Sea/Aleutians: Gale force winds are expected along a
north-south oriented swath with northwesterly winds through Adak
and Atka through Sunday evening. Gale force southeasterly winds
are possible along the Southwest Alaska coast and Bristol Bay
early Sunday morning before that front moves inland. Elsewhere,
the low over the Bering weakens, so any potential for gales on
Monday will be in isolated areas along the Aleutians and the
northern Bering, with no gales expected anywhere on Tuesday.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7: Sunday through Thursday)...

A busy long-term period is in the forecast this week. A nearly
stationary low over the Aleutians west of Dutch Harbor will have a
large equatorial extension on Sunday morning. This will pull large
amounts of rain in the form of atmospheric river northward into
southern mainland Alaska. The rain will be ongoing across most of
the region Sunday morning, through gusty winds and downsloping
will make the rain intermittent and light over Anchorage and the
Matanuska Valley. The firehose of rain will gradually move
eastward with time, but will linger longest along the coastal
Kenai Peninsula Sunday night and into Monday. More on the details
of that below in the hydrology section. The rain will move across
Prince William Sound on Monday, with the heaviest rain shifting
into the Panhandle by Tuesday. However, lingering light rain will
persist across all of Southern mainland Alaska into Tuesday, as
the low over the Bering keeps the onshore flow going.

In addition to all the rain, strong winds through Turnagain Arm
and higher elevations are likely Sunday into Sunday night. There
is some uncertainty as to how strong those winds will be, but
hurricane force gusts are at least possible once again. Plenty of
warm air with this system will keep any precipitation that falls
as rain for almost everyone, including those at high elevations,
as freezing levels rise as high as 9,000 feet. Upslope
precipitation is also expected along the Alaska Range for this
entire event through the day Monday. Since the predominant flow
will be southerly, cold air will be most persistent and hardest to
remove across Broad Pass north of Talkeetna. Shovelable snow is
likely Sunday into Sunday night into this area. Lingering showers
are likely into Tuesday for much of Southern mainland Alaska.

On Wednesday and into Thursday, the models rapidly diverge on the
track and timing of the next North Pacific low which will move
north into Southern Mainland Alaska. This too looks like it could
be a big wind-maker for much of the region, with additional rain,
heavy at times along the area mountains. Since the details of this
storm are highly uncertain, check back in future forecast packages
for updates.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

There is high confidence that an atmospheric river event will
threaten portions of Southern Alaska Sunday into Monday. The
hardest hit areas are likely to be along the southern Kenai
Peninsula, including Seward. Rain will start Saturday afternoon
across the region and gradually increase in intensity through
Sunday morning. Heavy rain is expected from Sunday afternoon
through Monday morning. Four inches of rain in 24 hours starting
Sunday afternoon are likely in Seward, which does not include the
rain that will fall preceding this period, nor the fact that
shower activity is likely to persist behind the atmospheric river
into Tuesday. Additional hydrological concerns will be how much
rain impacts the Homer area, and with very high freezing levels
affecting the Talkeetna Mountains, if any rain falls on that snow,
there could be notable rises on eastern Susitna Valley rivers and
streams as well. Uncertainty with that is much higher than further
south along the coast, so it will continue to be monitored in
future updates.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...Storms 174 177 178 185 411-413.
         Gales 120 130-132 150 155 160 165 170-173 175 176 1352 414.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...BL
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...MM
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...KO
MARINE/LONG TERM...JW