Gale Warning 504, NWS Anchorage, AK

867 
FZAK62 PAFC 232302
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
302 PM AKDT Wed Oct 23 2019

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-241315-
302 PM AKDT Wed Oct 23 2019
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 968 mb low over Bristol Bay will move inland this evening. A 960
mb North Pacific Low will be located at 47N 176E Thursday
afternoon and will move to 49N 177W Friday afternoon while
weakening to 966 mb. 

NOTICE: Please comment on a U.S. Coast Guard proposal to 
terminate medium frequency NAVTEX broadcasts. Visit 
https://go.usa.gov/xVHc3 to submit comments by November 12, 2019.

$$

PKZ411-241315-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
302 PM AKDT Wed Oct 23 2019

...STORM WARNING THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 10 to 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU...NE wind 10 to 25 kt increasing to 25 to 40 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 13 to 28 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 40 to 55 kt. Seas 19 to 31 ft.
.SAT...N wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 17 to 30 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...N wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft.

$$

PKZ412-241315-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
302 PM AKDT Wed Oct 23 2019

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 8 to 12 ft.
.THU...N wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 15 to 30 kt increasing to 25 to 40 kt after
midnight. Seas 6 ft building to 7 to 12 ft after midnight. Rain.
.FRI...NE wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 16 to 24 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 15 to 23 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NE wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft.

$$

PKZ413-241315-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
302 PM AKDT Wed Oct 23 2019

...STORM WARNING THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 10 to 25 kt becoming N up to 15 kt after
midnight. Seas 6 to 10 ft.
.THU...NE wind up to 15 kt becoming E 20 to 35 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 6 to 10 ft.
.THU NIGHT...E wind 40 to 55 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft. Rain.
.FRI...E wind 40 to 55 kt. Seas 15 to 28 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 15 to 23 ft.
.SAT THROUGH MON...N wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft.

$$

PKZ414-241315-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
302 PM AKDT Wed Oct 23 2019

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 11 to 16 ft.
.THU...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NW wind up to 20 kt becoming SE 20 to 35 kt after
midnight. Seas 4 to 9 ft. Rain.
.FRI...SE wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 13 to 18 ft.
.SAT THROUGH MON...SE wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 8 to 16 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
502 PM AKDT Tue Oct 22 2019

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
There is an upper level low centered over the central Bering Sea,
and a weak ridge with its axis near the Alaska-Canada border. A
surface low is rapidly deepening just south of the Alaska
Peninsula, and moving to the north. Considerable moisture is
associated with this low, streaming in from the south. Rain is
already increasing across the Alaska Peninsula and Kodiak Island.
The warm front with this low stretches west to east across most of
the Gulf, and the cold front extends from the low center
southward.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
The numerical models are in rather good agreement through Thursday
afternoon. There are some minor differences on the timing of the
front pushing to the north Gulf coast tonight and then inland on
Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...VFR conditions will persist. Fairly strong wind shear is
expected through Wednesday morning, with northerly winds at the
surface and strong easterly winds aloft. After a front pushes
through around noon, surface winds will become gusty from the
south and wind shear will end.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2/Tonight
through Thursday)...
Conditions will deteriorate across the Gulf of Alaska and Kodiak
Island this evening as a rapidly deepening low approaches the
Alaska Peninsula. Models have trended stronger with this system
overall and that is reflected in this afternoon's forecasts.
The most noteworthy change was to strengthen winds from Prince
William Sound to Passage Canal to Turnagain Arm as the occluded
front pushes onshore Wednesday morning. With a strong southerly
jet on the east side of the low center, the front will move
quickly and maintain much of its strength as as it arrives in
Prince William Sound. High Wind Warnings are in effect for
Portage Valley, Turnagain Arm, and the upper hillside of Anchorage
(above Hillside Drive). The strongest winds will be centered
around the time of frontal passage tomorrow morning. Forecast
soundings for Anchorage and vicinity indicate a neutrally to
slightly unstable sounding profile in the low levels. Thus, there
is nothing to force winds down to lower elevations of Anchorage,
and the highest winds should be confined to the upper hillside.
However, after the front moves through Anchorage (around midday
tomorrow), expect some gusty southeast winds to move into all of
Anchorage. The low will be slow to weaken Wednesday through
Thursday, so expect continued strong winds across the Gulf of
Alaska and portions of Southcentral.

This storm will bring lots of heavy precipitation to the Gulf
coastal zone the next couple days. The heaviest precipitation for
most areas will be with the front. Since this will be moving
through quickly, this will minimize flooding potential. However,
still expect multiple inches of rain along the Gulf coast. Inland
areas will initially remain mostly dry, especially in the lee of
the Kenai and Chugach Mountains thanks to periods of strong
downslope flow. However, the weakening storm system will
eventually head eastward from Bristol Bay and into Southcentral
on Thursday, bringing higher probabilities of rain. While this
system is arriving from the North Pacific, only expect a minor
warm-up of the airmass as the occluded front moves onshore.
Thus, expect snow levels to top out around 3000 feet or so for
much of the region.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...

A strengthening low will lift over Southwest Alaska this evening.
This storm will bring gusty southeasterly winds over the greater
Bristol Bay area tonight. Temperatures are expected to remain warm
enough for all rain to fall across the Bristol Bay region.
As the low lifts northward Wednesday afternoon, winds will become
more northerly over the Kuskokwim Delta area, introducing colder
air to the region. While there is still uncertainty in the type of
precipitation expected over the Kukso Delta, current thinking is
that rain will begin at the onset, with a transition to snow by
Wednesday night as more cold air gets pulled down from the north.
The timing of this transition largely depends on how much warm air
moves into the area Wednesday morning, and how quickly the low
moves inland. Accumulations will be confined to the mountains,
however areas in and around Bethel may see trace amounts.

In addition to winds and precipitation, this storm will bring the
possibility for rough surf along the Alaska Peninsula coast from
Port Moller to Egegik. At this time, models indicate that the
highest water levels coincide with low tide, however we will
continue to monitor the path and the timing of the storm in the
event this timing changes.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...

An upper level low centered over the central Bering continues to
bring showery conditions and generally northerly flow over the
western Bering. The big story, however, is a storm force low
approaching the Alaska Peninsula from the North Pacific. As this
strengthening low lifts northward over Southwest, northerly gales
will spread in over the eastern Bering for Wednesday. Meanwhile,
storm force westerlies (with hurricane force gusts) are expected
along the south side of the Alaska Peninsula Wednesday. These
elevated winds are expected to persist through early Thursday,
diminishing by Thursday afternoon as the low continues to move
inland. Shifting attention farther west, another strong storm
force low is expected to arrive over the western Aleutians
Thursday morning.

&&

.MARINE (Days 3 through 5)...
There is high confidence of a low near the central Aleutians
bringing storm force winds to the western Bering and Aleutians
Friday. There is also high confidence of the winds weakening
through the weekend as the low tracks north into the Bering. Over
the Gulf there is high confidence in westerly winds that will
change to southeasterly through the weekend. However, the models
are struggling with how strong the winds will be. Current thinking
is that normal gusty areas in westerly flow, like areas around
the Barrens, will see gale force winds Friday. Minor changes in
low position could play a factor in how strong these winds will
be.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...
The long term, beginning Friday, has ridging building in over the
southern mainland and a storm force low just south of the central
Aleutians. As the ridging continues to strengthen it will force
the low to track north into the Bering over the weekend as the
low weakens. Between these two features an atmospheric river will
setup bringing a long fetch of moisture initially to the Alaska
Peninsula. There is disagreement amongst the models with the
progression of the atmospheric river, but the general consensus
has it tracking to the east into early next week. The models
diverge quite a lot early next week resulting in the ensembles
being preferred.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...High wind warning zones 101 and 125.
MARINE...Storms 119 120 125 130-132 138 150 155 351 352.
         Gales 129 139-141 160 165 170-172 180 181 414.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...BL
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...SEB
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...KO
MARINE/LONG TERM...DK