Gale Warning 494, NWS Anchorage, AK

810 
FZAK61 PAFC 131147
OFFAER

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
347 AM AKDT Sun Oct 13 2019

Offshore waters forecast for the Gulf of Alaska West of 144W

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ399-140045-
347 AM AKDT Sun Oct 13 2019
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...

A front associated with a 982 mb low enters the southwestern Gulf 
Sun morning and then moves into the central Gulf Sun afternoon before
entering the eastern Gulf Sun night. An elongated low maintains the 
front over the entire Gulf through Mon night before starting to 
dissipate Tue morning.

$$

PKZ351-140045-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore North of 57N and West of 144W-
347 AM AKDT Sun Oct 13 2019

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND MONDAY...

.TODAY...E wind up to 10 kt increasing to 10 to 20 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 5 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 25 to 35 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.MON...E wind 30 to 40 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 18 to 23 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 16 ft.
.THU...W wind up to 20 kt. Seas 8 to 12 ft.

$$

PKZ352-140045-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore South of 57N North of 55N and West of
144W-
347 AM AKDT Sun Oct 13 2019

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 10 to 25 kt becoming E 25 to 40 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 5 to 10 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...E wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft. Rain.
.MON...E wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 13 to 20 ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 13 to 20 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...W wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft.

$$

782 
FZAK61 PAFC 132334
OFFAER

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
334 PM AKDT Sun Oct 13 2019

Offshore waters forecast for the Gulf of Alaska West of 144W

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ399-141415-
334 PM AKDT Sun Oct 13 2019
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...

A front associated with a 982 mb low enters the southwestern Gulf
Sun afternoon and then moves into the central Gulf Mon afternoon 
before entering the eastern Gulf Mon night. A new 982 mb low forms
at 55N 150W Mon afternoon. It strengthens to 972 mb at 55N 152W 
Tue morning, then moves to 54N 150W Tue afternoon.

$$

PKZ351-141415-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore North of 57N and West of 144W-
334 PM AKDT Sun Oct 13 2019

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind increasing to 25 to 35 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft building
to 9 to 14 ft after midnight.
.MON...E wind 30 to 40 kt. Seas 11 to 18 ft building to 17 to 22
ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 35 to 45 kt diminishing to 20 to 35 kt after
midnight. Seas 16 to 23 ft. Rain.
.TUE...SE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 9 to 16 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind up to 15 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft.
.WED THROUGH FRI...NW wind up to 20 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.

$$

PKZ352-141415-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore South of 57N North of 55N and West of
144W-
334 PM AKDT Sun Oct 13 2019

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft. Rain.
.MON...E wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 16 to 21 ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 20 to 35 kt becoming SE 10 to 20 kt after
midnight. Seas 14 to 22 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft.
.WED THROUGH FRI...W wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft.

$$

543 
FZAK61 PAFC 141125
OFFAER

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
325 AM AKDT Mon Oct 14 2019

Offshore waters forecast for the Gulf of Alaska West of 144W

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ399-150130-
325 AM AKDT Mon Oct 14 2019
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...

A 986 mb low at 54N 146W moves to 55N 151W at 973 mb Tue morning 
before dissipating early Wed morning. A 980 mb low at 57N 142W Tue 
morning moves to 58N 146W at 983 mb Wed morning.

$$

PKZ351-150130-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore North of 57N and West of 144W-
325 AM AKDT Mon Oct 14 2019

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E wind 40 kt. Seas 11 to 18 ft building to 17 to 22 ft in
the afternoon. Rain.
.TONIGHT...E wind 35 to 45 kt diminishing to 20 to 35 kt after
midnight. Seas 17 to 23 ft. Rain.
.TUE...E wind 15 to 30 kt diminishing to 10 to 20 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 11 to 16 ft. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.WED...SW wind up to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NW wind up to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.

$$

PKZ352-150130-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore South of 57N North of 55N and West of
144W-
325 AM AKDT Mon Oct 14 2019

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 16 to 21 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...E wind 25 to 40 kt becoming SE 15 to 30 kt after
midnight. Seas 15 to 22 ft.
.TUE...E wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 10 to 15 ft. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 16 ft.
.WED THROUGH FRI...W wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft.

$$

074 
FZAK61 PAFC 142345
OFFAER

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
345 PM AKDT Mon Oct 14 2019

Offshore waters forecast for the Gulf of Alaska West of 144W

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ399-151245-
345 PM AKDT Mon Oct 14 2019
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...

A strengthening 983 mb low at 55N 147W remains nearly stationary 
through Tue afternoon at 976 mb before moving into the
southeastern Gulf by Wed morning at 982 mb. 

$$

PKZ351-151245-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore North of 57N and West of 144W-
345 PM AKDT Mon Oct 14 2019

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 30 to 40 kt diminishing to 20 to 35 kt after
midnight. Seas 16 to 21 ft. Rain.
.TUE...E wind 15 to 30 kt diminishing to 10 to 20 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 9 to 16 ft. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.WED...SW wind up to 20 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.THU THROUGH SAT...S wind up to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.

$$

PKZ352-151245-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore South of 57N North of 55N and West of
144W-
345 PM AKDT Mon Oct 14 2019

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 25 to 40 kt becoming SE 15 to 30 kt after
midnight. Seas 14 to 21 ft.
.TUE...E wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 16 ft.
.WED...W wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 9 to 15 ft.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft.
.THU...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 12 to 19 ft.
.FRI...W wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft.

$$

165 
FZAK61 PAFC 151141
OFFAER

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
341 AM AKDT Tue Oct 15 2019

Offshore waters forecast for the Gulf of Alaska West of 144W

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ399-160130-
341 AM AKDT Tue Oct 15 2019
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A 974 mb low at 54N 149W remains nearly stationary before moving
into the southeastern Gulf by Wed morning. A 988 mb low at 58N
148W Wed morning moves to 59N 150W at 983 mb before dissipating
Thu morning. A 982 mb low at 56N 153W Wed afternoon moves to 56N
148W at 982 mb Thu morning. A 981 mb low at 57N 141W Wed afternoon
moves to 59N 145W at 978 mb Thu morning.

$$

PKZ351-160130-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore North of 57N and West of 144W-
341 AM AKDT Tue Oct 15 2019

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E wind 20 to 35 kt diminishing to 15 to 25 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 12 to 20 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...E wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas subsiding to 10 ft.
.WED...SW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind up to 15 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...W wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.SAT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 4 to 8 ft.

$$

PKZ352-160130-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore South of 57N North of 55N and West of
144W-
341 AM AKDT Tue Oct 15 2019

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E wind 20 to 40 kt. Seas 10 to 20 ft.. Highest winds and seas 
W of 149w. Rain.
.TONIGHT...N wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 19 ft. Highest winds and seas 
W of 149w.
.WED...W wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 9 to 16 ft.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft.
.SAT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft.

$$

435 
FZAK61 PAFC 152344
OFFAER

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
344 PM AKDT Tue Oct 15 2019

Offshore waters forecast for the Gulf of Alaska West of 144W

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ399-161300-
344 PM AKDT Tue Oct 15 2019
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...

A 974 mb low at 55N 149W moves into the southeast Gulf by Wed
morning. A frontal boundary associated with a 975 mb Bering low
enters the southwest Gulf Wed evening and impacts the southern
Gulf through Thu afternoon.

$$

PKZ351-161300-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore North of 57N and West of 144W-
344 PM AKDT Tue Oct 15 2019

.TONIGHT...E wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED...SW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 10 to 15 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.THU...W wind up to 20 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 10 to 16 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...SW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.

$$

PKZ352-161300-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore South of 57N North of 55N and West of
144W-
344 PM AKDT Tue Oct 15 2019

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft.
.WED...W wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 9 to 16 ft.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft. Rain showers.
.THU...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 12 to 19 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 14 to 18 ft.
.FRI...W wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 10 to 15 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...W wind up to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
448 AM AKDT Sat Oct 12 2019

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

Two weak, vertically stacked lows are impacting Southern Alaska
this morning. One is in the northern Gulf, and the other is in the
southern Bering north of Adak. The northern Gulf low is a shell of
its former self, but is a compact, wrapped up system with
convective clouds swirling south of the center, with the
stratiform cloud shield dissipating over Southcentral, and moving
east across the Copper River Basin and Prince William Sound. Thus,
skies are undergoing a clearing trend. As such, most of
Southcentral is in the 30s, with the only 40s in Anchorage and
along the Gulf Coast. Stronger, gustier winds are continuing in
Seward and Whittier as cold air drains through the valleys.

Except for some trapped moisture in the Alaska Range, all of
Southwest Alaska is under clear skies with temperatures in the
20s except in a few coastal locations. The second low over the
southern Bering has a much less defined signature in the otherwise
broad stratus field that persists across much of the Bering. The
northern edge of the cloud shield that is associated with a
deepening North Pacific low is approaching the southern Alaska
Peninsula. This low will be the primary weather maker for that
area and over to Kodiak the next few days.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

The models are in good agreement through Sunday night, allowing
forecast confidence to be high. There are some minor track
differences by Sunday night in what will be a rapidly deepening
low, the former Typhoon Hagibis by that point. Those differences
do not amount to much change in the forecast. It is beyond Sunday
night regarding where Hagibis goes that the models are still
struggling to resolve. All but the Canadian now take the center of
Hagibis looping north, and never getting east of 170 west
longitude. With the historically poor accuracy of the models to
handle extratropical lows that are former typhoons, it is typical
for there to be large changes in the track from run to run. As
such, more updates to the forecast are likely. With that said,
confidence remains very high that regardless of where the center
goes, very strong winds and dangerous seas are expected around the
low. More on Hagibis below.

Quiet weather is expected elsewhere with the main forecast concern
being persistent offshore gap winds along the north Gulf Coast.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...VFR conditions and northerly winds will persist. Gusts are
still possible, especially this morning, but the trend in the
speed will be downward through the day.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...

The low near Middleton Island is starting to track eastward as
seen on radar. High pressure building into the area is bringing in
colder and drier air into the region.
Winds will generally diminish with the low moving away from the
area, however the pressure gradient will remain tight along the
coastal mountains so areas such as Thompson Pass will continue to
see strong winds.

With clearing skies over the next few days and winds diminishing,
expect the coldest temperatures so far this season across much of
the region the next few nights.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3; Today
through Monday)...

Mostly sunny skies will persist over Southwest Alaska through
this weekend under high pressure. The clear skies will cause
overnight lows to fall to near 20 over inland areas. The
extratropical low associated with Typhoon Hagibis will approach by
Monday afternoon. Rain and gusty southerly winds are likely along
the immediate coastline in the evening, however inland areas will
see little to no impacts.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3; Today
through Monday)...

A weakening low in the southern Bering will bring periods of rain
to the central and eastern Aleutians today. This feature will
merge with a stronger low approaching from the south on Sunday
which will cause rain to continue over the same area, tracking
eastward through Monday. Farther west, an extratropical low that
is currently Typhoon Hagibis will move into the western Bering
Sunday evening. It will intensify Monday as it moves into the
central Bering. Although the strongest winds will remain offshore
near the low center, very gusty northwesterly winds up to 75 mph
are possible over the western Aleutians, with gusts of 60 mph
reaching as far east as Unalaska by Monday evening. Periods of
heavy rain are likely as well.

&&

.MARINE (Days 3 through 5)...

Bering Sea/Aleutians:There is high confidence that the
extratropical remnants of Typhoon Hagibis will approach the
western Aleutians by Monday and rapidly deepen to around 955mb.
Sustained hurricane force winds and heavy rains are likely in the
western Aleutians late Sunday night into early Monday, then in the
central Aleutians/southern Bering by Monday evening. Combined
seas up to 50 feet are expected. While models have varied widely
run to run, the current expectation is that the low will take a
northward turn late Monday into Tuesday, and its center will be
roughly along 60N by Wednesday. Based on the expected track,
hurricane force winds are not expected in the Pribilof Islands,
but storm force winds are likely. Winds will generally diminish
and seas will subside as the low exits to the north, however
models continue to depict a series of potent lows skirting from
the western to central Aleutians in the Tuesday to Wednesday
timeframe. But, there is high uncertainty with location. So, while
hurricane force winds should be limited to the post-tropical
cyclone, gales, or even storm force winds are likely in parts of
the Aleutians/Bering even after that feature exits.

Gulf of Alaska: Easterly gales are expected in the Gulf Monday as
a North Pacific low deepens and pushes an elongated front north.
Conditions will improve Tuesday into Wednesday, though a secondary
low may develop and bring another round of small craft winds to
the central Gulf Wednesday.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...

The main focus in the long term is Typhoon Hagibis, which will
undergo extratropical transition in the rough Sunday timeframe,
then bomb out over the western Aleutians/Bering early Monday.
Besides the marine hazards mentioned in the marine discussion,
expect strong winds over the western Aleutians with gusts in the
70 to 80 knot range. In addition, heavy rain is likely over the
Aleutians. While models have come into better agreement with the
track of the former typhoon, there is a lot of uncertainty with
what comes after. Models generally depict a secondary low (or
perhaps series of shortwaves or closed lows) that form under the
polar front of a 160 to 170 knot jet streak oriented roughly
along 50N from the Kamchatka Peninsula to the Aleutians. In any
case, unsettled weather will continue over the Aleutians and
Bering at least through midweek, likely through the end of the
week as broad cyclonic flow continues and several weak shortwaves
traverse the Bering from eastern Siberia.

Given the expected northward track of the former typhoon, weather
in the Southwest mainland will be relatively quiet in the long
term. Strong southeast winds along the west coast and heavy
precipitation at times is expected as the weakening front
associated with the typhoon reaches the mainland late Monday into
Tuesday. Otherwise, expect several weakening fronts to approach
the mainland as the week goes on, bringing bouts of precipitation.

Over Southcentral, generally dry weather is expected through
midweek. High pressure will settle over northern Alaska, and cold
conditions inland with offshore winds will dominate through
midweek. A series of fronts will move from the Gulf northward.
This will potentially bring precipitation to the North Gulf
Coast, but generally expect precipitation to stay over the marine
area. During the later part of the week, the ridge will retrograde
to the north and a wetter pattern is possible.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...Gale Warning: 132, 138, 150, 155, 178, 352.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...JPW
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...EZ
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...AP
MARINE/LONG TERM...MM