Gale Warning 431, NWS Anchorage, AK

520 
FZAK52 PAFC 072300
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
300 PM AKDT Sat Sep 7 2019

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-081200-
300 PM AKDT Sat Sep 7 2019
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 995 mb low 125 nm SW of Hooper Bay moves to the Bering Straight
Sunday morning. A 993 mb low 140 nm SW of Amchitka moves to 70 nm
NW of Saint Paul and weakens to 1003 mb Sunday afternoon. High 
pressure then builds across the western Bering Sea Monday afternoon.

$$

PKZ150-081200-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
300 PM AKDT Sat Sep 7 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN...S wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE...N wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU...S wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ155-081200-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
300 PM AKDT Sat Sep 7 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN...S wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.THU...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.

$$

PKZ160-081200-
Bristol Bay-
300 PM AKDT Sat Sep 7 2019

.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...S wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...W wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...S wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ165-081200-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
300 PM AKDT Sat Sep 7 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain.
.SUN...S wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...W wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...S wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 16 ft.

$$

PKZ170-081200-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
300 PM AKDT Sat Sep 7 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain.
.SUN...S wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft.

$$

PKZ171-081200-
Unalaska Bay-
300 PM AKDT Sat Sep 7 2019

.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.SUN...S wind 20 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...W wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...S wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ172-081200-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
300 PM AKDT Sat Sep 7 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain.
.SUN...S wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.MON...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE...W wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft.

$$

PKZ173-081200-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
300 PM AKDT Sat Sep 7 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN...S wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 19 ft.

$$

PKZ174-081200-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
300 PM AKDT Sat Sep 7 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft. Rain.
.SUN...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft. Rain showers.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.MON...W wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft.

$$

PKZ175-081200-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
300 PM AKDT Sat Sep 7 2019

.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain showers.
.SUN...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...S wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.THU...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 19 ft.

$$

PKZ176-081200-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
300 PM AKDT Sat Sep 7 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft. Rain showers.
.SUN...W wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE...S wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...W wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.

$$

PKZ177-081200-
Adak to Kiska-
300 PM AKDT Sat Sep 7 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE...S wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...W wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.

$$

PKZ178-081200-
Kiska to Attu-
300 PM AKDT Sat Sep 7 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft.

$$

PKZ179-081200-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
300 PM AKDT Sat Sep 7 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain.
.SUN...S wind 20 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 6 
ft.
.SUN NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...S wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.WED...S wind 25 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.THU...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.

$$

PKZ180-081200-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
300 PM AKDT Sat Sep 7 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN...S wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU...S wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ181-081200-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
300 PM AKDT Sat Sep 7 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain showers.
.SUN...S wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 7 
ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.THU...E wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ185-081200-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
300 PM AKDT Sat Sep 7 2019

.TONIGHT...E of Saint Matthew Island, W wind 20 kt becoming SW after
midnight. W of Saint Matthew Island, NW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN...E of Saint Matthew Island, S wind 20 kt becoming variable 10
kt in the afternoon. W of Saint Matthew Island, NW wind 15 kt. Seas 
4 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...E of Saint Matthew Island, variable wind 10 kt. W of
Saint Matthew Island, N wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...S wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.WED...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.THU...N wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
518 PM AKDT Fri Sep 6 2019

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
The upper level pattern has a more highly amplified look to it as
compared to yesterday. The main reason for this is that the ridge
over Southcentral Alaska has become more amplified as it has been
moved eastward by the trough in the eastern Bering Sea. A
secondary trough is digging southward through the western Bering
Sea today and will cut south of the existing Bering Sea trough.
This will have the effect of keeping the trough axis over the
Bering Sea and southern Alaska over south-to-southwest flow aloft.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
Models remain in good agreement even in the features that are
changing. The biggest feature to mention is the front southwest of
Kodiak. This front will move faster and farther east than what was
anticipated from earlier forecasts. All models are showing this
and reflect the current satellite data well.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...VFR conditions and light winds will persist.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
The only area of any concern will be the Copper River Basin on
Saturday. While winds are still expected to be gusty along the
Copper River and through channeled terrain in the Chugach
Mountains, the temperatures and RH values look to be moderated by
the faster moving front into the area. Other areas with active
fires are expected to see rain by Saturday night if not sooner.

&&
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3;
Tonight through Monday)...

A front will slowly track into Southcentral on Saturday bringing
mostly cloudy skies through the day. Though it will gradually
weaken as it moves eastward, upper level forcing will support rain
continuing through early Sunday morning for much of the Kenai,
Mat-Su and Anchorage bowl. Total accumulations of up to half an
inch are possible in associated moist, southerly flow. Winds will
remain light for most areas, with the exception of gusty
southeasterlies near 30 mph in and around Turnagain Arm. Farther
east, a ridge is expected to hold in place through much of the
weekend, bringing partly cloudy skies and dry conditions. Expect
high temperatures primarily in the 60s, with gusty southeasterly
winds likely along the Copper River. The aforementioned front
will completely weaken just east of Anchorage on Sunday morning,
thus no precipitation is expected in this region and skies should
remain mostly sunny generally east of the Richardson Highway
through the remainder of the weekend.

As we head to the new work week, a broad upper level trough will
move in from the Bering Sea. While there may be some specific
short-waves embedded in the trough, at this point in time
everything looks pretty weak. Thus, expect increasing clouds
Monday with increasing chances of showers from Kodiak Island to
the Kenai Peninsula, Anchorage and the Mat-Su. Ridging to the east
should provide drier conditions for eastern Prince William Sound
and the Copper River Basin.

&&
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3/Tonight
through Monday)...

The weather pattern will remain quite active across Southwest
Alaska with periods of wet and windy weather over the next couple
of days, especially along the coast. The first of two surface
lows is situated just east of the Pribilofs this afternoon, and is
draping an occluded front southeast over the eastern Bering and
southern AKPEN. A widespread area of rain is falling ahead of the
front from Bristol Bay north across the Kuskokwim Delta and
Valley. This front, and its associated sub-1000mb low, is running
up against a strong ridge downstream as it tries to advance to the
east. This is creating a tight pressure gradient which is
producing gusty southerly winds along the frontal boundary, with
the strongest gusts from Port Heiden to Goodnews Bay.

Strong pressure rises on the back side of the front and newly
forming triple point low south of the AKPEN will allow strong
southerly winds to persist across the AKPEN overnight and the
Southwest early Saturday. Rain and winds will then diminish late
Saturday into the first half of Sunday as the low lifts north and
a weak, transient ridge moves in. A second surface low then lifts
northeast from the Aleutians pushing a front toward the Southwest
coast Sunday. This will bring another round of rain and gusty
winds to the region through Monday. By late Monday, the widespread
rain tapers to showers as the low lifts north and winds decrease.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through
3/Tonight through Monday)...

A low just east of the Pribilofs and its associated occluded
front dropping southeast across the AKPEN is producing widespread
rain and gales across the eastern Bering. The gusty southerly
winds will continue tonight before transitioning to westerly
small-craft winds on the back side of the low as it lifts north
toward Saint Lawrence Island. The core of small-craft winds
decrease by Saturday night as the low continues to lift into the
Bering Strait.

Farther west, a low tracking over the western Aleutians tonight
will sweep a front toward the central Aleutians through Saturday
as the low begins to advance east. This frontal system will bring
southerly small-craft winds along the front, reaching the AKPEN
and Pribilofs by Saturday night. The low then weakens as it lifts
north of the Pribilofs for Sunday, with winds becoming sub-small
craft by late Sunday through Monday. Behind the low, expect
scattered showers with weak, northwesterly flow across the western
Bering as an upper-level shortwave rotates through. A ridge
builds over Attu and slowly works east by early next week.

&&

.MARINE (Days 3 through 5)...
(Monday through Wednesday)

...Bering Sea and the Aleutian Coastal Waters...

A weak cold front will cross the Bristol Bay and AKPEN coastal
waters on Monday, with sustained winds remained below gales on
Monday, with these winds then diminishing for Tuesday and
Wednesday.

Out west, an approaching front will cause sustained winds to
approach low-end gales for the western portions of the chain and
adjacent waters on Tuesday, spreading eastward into the central
Aleutian coastal and offshore waters.

...Gulf of Alaska...

A weakening front will enter the western Gulf on Monday, with
sustained winds just shy of small craft criteria. Otherwise, look
for relatively light winds and waves to continue.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7)...
(Tuesday through Friday)

A fairly active pattern looks to be in store for much of the
upcoming week, as a series of lows affect the region. Our first
feature of interest will be a north Pacific low lifting towards
the southern Gulf on Wednesday. An attendant inverted trough will
develop and extend across the Alaska Range, giving portions of
southwest and southcentral another potential for rainfall. We'll
have to watch later model runs with regard to precipitation
coverage and storm track, as moisture and the remnant circulation
from Tropical Storm "Faxai" gets entrained into this system,
perhaps boosting rainfall coverage and intensity somewhat.

Further west, things really could get interesting on Thursday, as
an ejecting Siberian Low absorbs moisture and energy from what is
currently Typhoon "Lingling" (currently west of the South Korean
coast). The GFS model is fairly aggressive with this as it shows
these two systems merging with bombogenesis (the rapid development
of a low characterized by a 24 mb or more drop in 24 hours)
commencing, as it bottoms out around 955 mb near the Pribilof
Islands. However, the European (ECMWF) and Canadian Global models
aren't as aggressive with the low deepening, as they show a system
in the 970 mb range after the systems phase.

In either case, abundant tropical moisture associated with the
former typhoon and a strong 1.5 PV anomaly down to 500 mb should
foster very good precipitation efficiency near the low pressure
center and ahead of its attendant surface front, as it treks from
the central Bering/Aleutians into Southwest and Southcentral
Alaska.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...Gales 130 150 155 160 180.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...EZ
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...AP/SEB
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...TM
MARINE/LONG TERM...PD