Gale Warning 429, NWS Anchorage, AK

885 
FZAK52 PAFC 062328
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
328 PM AKDT Fri Sep 6 2019

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-071215-
328 PM AKDT Fri Sep 6 2019
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 995 mb low 100 nm East of St Paul Island drives into the 
Southern Chukchi Sea at 1000 mb for Sun afternoon. Its front 
pushes through Western Alaska into the Gulf of Alaska by Sun 
afternoon. A 994 mb low 175 nm Southwest of Attu moves to 90 nm
North of St Paul Island at 1001 mb for Sat afternoon. Its front 
sweeps across the Bering through Sun afternoon.

$$

PKZ150-071215-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
328 PM AKDT Fri Sep 6 2019

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E of Chirikof Island, SE wind 40 kt diminishing to 25 kt
after midnight. W of Chirikof Island, SE wind 40 kt becoming SW 20 
kt after midnight. Seas 19 ft subsiding to 15 ft after midnight. Rain.
.SAT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON...S wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ155-071215-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
328 PM AKDT Fri Sep 6 2019

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt, Seas 13 ft. From the Shumagin Islands E,
SW wind 40 kt diminishing to 20 kt after midnight, Seas 20 ft
subsiding to 13 ft after midnight.
.SAT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE...W wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ160-071215-
Bristol Bay-
328 PM AKDT Fri Sep 6 2019

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 40 kt diminishing to 25 kt after midnight. Seas 
14 ft subsiding to 10 ft after midnight. Rain.
.SAT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ165-071215-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
328 PM AKDT Fri Sep 6 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt except SE 30 kt from Port Moller E. Seas
9 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN...S wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...S wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ170-071215-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
328 PM AKDT Fri Sep 6 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain.
.SUN...S wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ171-071215-
Unalaska Bay-
328 PM AKDT Fri Sep 6 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 10 kt in the evening increasing to 25 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.SUN...S wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ172-071215-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
328 PM AKDT Fri Sep 6 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...W wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ173-071215-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
328 PM AKDT Fri Sep 6 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 20 kt becoming S 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas 8 ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ174-071215-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
328 PM AKDT Fri Sep 6 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft. Rain.
.SUN...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.MON...W wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ175-071215-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
328 PM AKDT Fri Sep 6 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain showers.
.SUN...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...W wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ176-071215-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
328 PM AKDT Fri Sep 6 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft. Rain showers.
.SUN...W wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ177-071215-
Adak to Kiska-
328 PM AKDT Fri Sep 6 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain.
.SAT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON...W wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE...S wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ178-071215-
Kiska to Attu-
328 PM AKDT Fri Sep 6 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Bering side, SE wind 30 kt becoming S 15
kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain.
.SAT...NE wind 25 kt. E of Shemya, S 15 kt becoming N 20 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON...S wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ179-071215-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
328 PM AKDT Fri Sep 6 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt increasing to 25 kt after midnight. Seas
7 ft.
.SAT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain.
.SUN...S wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED...S wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ180-071215-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
328 PM AKDT Fri Sep 6 2019

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.SAT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN...S wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...S wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ181-071215-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
328 PM AKDT Fri Sep 6 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain showers.
.SAT...SE wind 25 kt becoming SW in the afternoon. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...S wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ185-071215-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
328 PM AKDT Fri Sep 6 2019

.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain showers.
.SAT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

333 
FZAK52 PAFC 071149
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
349 AM AKDT Sat Sep 7 2019

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-080045-
349 AM AKDT Sat Sep 7 2019
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A 993 mb low 100 nm southwest of Mekoryuk moves into the Bering 
Strait by Sun morning. A 992 mb 105 nm southwest of Shemya moves 
to 55 nm east of Adak at 1000 mb Sun morning and then moves to 
150 nm west of Mekoryuk at 1004 mb by Mon morning.

$$

PKZ150-080045-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
349 AM AKDT Sat Sep 7 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN...S wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON...S wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ155-080045-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
349 AM AKDT Sat Sep 7 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN...S wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ160-080045-
Bristol Bay-
349 AM AKDT Sat Sep 7 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...S wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN...S wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON...S wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ165-080045-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
349 AM AKDT Sat Sep 7 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN...S wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...W wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...S wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ170-080045-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
349 AM AKDT Sat Sep 7 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain.
.SUN...S wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON...W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED...S wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft.

$$

PKZ171-080045-
Unalaska Bay-
349 AM AKDT Sat Sep 7 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas
4 ft subsiding to 2 ft in the afternoon.
.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.SUN...S wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...W wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...S wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ172-080045-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
349 AM AKDT Sat Sep 7 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain.
.SUN...S wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.MON...W wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TUE...W wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.

$$

PKZ173-080045-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
349 AM AKDT Sat Sep 7 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW wind 20 kt becoming S 30 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 8 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain.
.SUN...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...W wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft.

$$

PKZ174-080045-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
349 AM AKDT Sat Sep 7 2019

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 25 kt becoming S 35 kt in the afternoon. Seas
11 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft. Rain.
.SUN...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft. Rain showers.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.MON...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.WED...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft.

$$

PKZ175-080045-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
349 AM AKDT Sat Sep 7 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...S wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain showers.
.SUN...W wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...S wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.

$$

PKZ176-080045-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
349 AM AKDT Sat Sep 7 2019

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...S wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft. Rain showers.
.SUN...W wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE...S wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.WED...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.

$$

PKZ177-080045-
Adak to Kiska-
349 AM AKDT Sat Sep 7 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON...W wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE...S wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.WED...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.

$$

PKZ178-080045-
Kiska to Attu-
349 AM AKDT Sat Sep 7 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON...S wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.

$$

PKZ179-080045-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
349 AM AKDT Sat Sep 7 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Patchy fog.
.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain.
.SUN...S wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...S wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.WED...S wind 25 kt. Seas 17 ft.

$$

PKZ180-080045-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
349 AM AKDT Sat Sep 7 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN...S wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ181-080045-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
349 AM AKDT Sat Sep 7 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...S wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...S wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ185-080045-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
349 AM AKDT Sat Sep 7 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...N wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON...W wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
548 PM AKDT Thu Sep 5 2019

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
The upper level low center is now north of the Bering Strait and
extends south over the Alaska Peninsula and then far to the
southwest in the Pacific (to near 30N 170E). This is a very long
tap of moisture and can be seen well on IR satellite. Southwest
Alaska is under this moisture with Southcentral under the upper
level ridge. The jet stream at 250 mb is just to the south of the
eastern Aleutians and will be the focus for the development of
the next low to move into the region.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
Models are in good agreement and doing better overall than
yesterday. The feature from yesterday that they were struggling
with the most was the low that will develop along the front south
of the Alaska Peninsula Friday and models have all come into a
common solution with it. This solution does bring the low farther
east with a stronger pressure gradient over the southwest Alaska
so that has been accounted for in the new forecast packages.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...VFR conditions and light winds will persist.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
The biggest fire weather concern will be for conditions in the
Copper River Basin, and specifically near the Tokaina fire, on
Saturday. The ridge will be near the AlCan border and bringing in
areas with temperatures approaching 70 and RH values under 30
percent. South to southeast winds will also blow through channeled
terrain in the Chugach Mountains and along the Copper River.

The Swan Lake fire is beginning to produce more smoke again
today(seen on visible satellite) under the sunny skies. The sunny
skies should be around through tomorrow before cloudier condition
return on Saturday.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3;
Tonight through Sunday evening)...

An upper ridge and associated high pressure will bring mostly
dry conditions across Southcentral through Saturday. Highs near 70
are possible over interior valleys. Farther west, a front will
gradually track over Kodiak Island Saturday morning bringing
moderate rain for much of the day. Gusty southeasterly winds are
likely west of the Barren Islands as well. The front is expected
to weaken as it moves to the east, although rain is likely for
the Kenai Peninsula coast early Sunday morning in persistent
southeasterly flow. A brief period of rain remains possible for
the Anchorage area Sunday morning as well given decent upper
level support, though will not last beyond midday as drier air
builds in from the west.

&&.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3/Tonight
through Sunday)...
Wet and windy weather is the big weather story for the next couple
days, particularly along the Southwest Alaska coast. A series of
lows will track northward along a frontal zone currently oriented
north to south across the eastern Bering Sea and southern Alaska
Peninsula. These will be supported aloft by an amplifying trough
and strengthening southerly jet. As these features move up the
front, the front will be pushed farther and farther to the east
and into Southwest Alaska.

For tonight into Friday, the bulk of rain and strongest winds
will be from the southern Alaska Peninsula (south of Port Heiden)
northward to the western portion of the Bristol Bay area (from
around Dillingham westward) and on up across the Kuskokwim Delta.
The wind and rain will then spread north and eastward across the
remainder of Southwest Alaska Friday afternoon through Saturday.

The latest model guidance has trended notably stronger with the
low moving up the front Friday afternoon through Friday night.
This will really intensify winds just east of the low track. Have
strengthened winds considerably in the latest forecast. While
there is some uncertainty in the low track, it appears the
strongest winds will occur Friday afternoon through Friday night
along the Alaska Peninsula from east of Cold Bay all the way up
to the vicinity of King Salmon and Naknek. Bristol Bay itself will
also see some of the strongest winds.

Strong pressure rises on the back side of the low will lead to a
quick shot of south to southwest winds along the Alaska Peninsula
Friday night and across Southwest Alaska on Saturday. Rain and
winds will then diminish Saturday night as the low exits to the
north. Another weaker storm system will enter the eastern bering
Sea on Sunday, with showers approaching the Southwest coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through
3/Tonight through Sunday)...
The weak low along the Aleutians today will exit to the eastern
Bering Sea on friday as a new system arrives in the western
Aleutians. This storm will track eastward along the Aleutian
Chain, reaching the eastern Aleutians Sunday as the next storm in
line arrives along the western Aleutians. None of these systems
look very strong - just your typical small craft to perhaps some
small areas of gale winds as they move through.

&&

.MARINE (Days 3 through 5)...

Beginning the extended marine forecast period on Sunday,
conditions will be easing across all of the marine areas. Over the
Gulf of Alaska, a ridge will be moving east and weak SE winds will
be prominent through Tuesday. West across the Bering, multiple
areas of low pressure will weaken, giving way to light northerly
flow west of 180. Closer to SW AK, winds around a decaying low
will be southwesterly generally south of the AKPEN. These winds
should remain at small craft levels or lower, while winds in
Bristol Bay and along the western coast will be southerly and
remain sub gale through Tuesday.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7)...

Beginning the extended period forecast on Sunday evening, high
pressure will keep benign weather locked in east of the Chugach
and Talkeetna mountains. Areas from Kodiak through the coastal
areas of Prince William Sound will see some showers come to a
close on Sunday as weak ridging builds from the south. The next
front will bring showers to all of the coast from Monday evening
on. Across the western coast, cooler and wetter conditions will
remain a mainstay well into next week. A transient ridge is
expected to build across the western Aleutians through the middle
of the week as long term solutions are pointing towards a strong
storm moving into the western Bering around Thursday.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...Gales 150 155 160 165 180.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...EZ
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...AP
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...SEB