Gale Warning 428, NWS Anchorage, AK

Issued

Sep 5, 2019, 3:48 AM AKDT (11:48 UTC)

Expired

Sep 5, 2019, 5:15 PM AKDT

In force

13 hr

Issued by

NWS Anchorage, AK

335 
FZAK52 PAFC 051148
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
348 AM AKDT Thu Sep 5 2019

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-060115-
348 AM AKDT Thu Sep 5 2019
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A 1003 mb low 70 nm north of Saint Paul moves into the Bering Strait
at 1007 mb Fri morning. A 1001 mb low 145 nm northwest of Adak moves
over Saint Paul at 1000 mb Fri morning then to 104 nm northeast of 
Saint Paul at 993 mb Sat morning. A 1000 mb North Pacific low Friday
morning moves to 130 nm southwest of Shemya at 992 mb Sat morning.

$$

PKZ150-060115-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
348 AM AKDT Thu Sep 5 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON...S wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ155-060115-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
348 AM AKDT Thu Sep 5 2019

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 30 kt except S 25 kt from the Shumagin Islands E.
Seas 10 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 35 kt except SE 30 kt from the Shumagin Islands
E. Seas 12 ft. Rain.
.FRI...S wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.SAT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...S wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ160-060115-
Bristol Bay-
348 AM AKDT Thu Sep 5 2019

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN...S wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ165-060115-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
348 AM AKDT Thu Sep 5 2019

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain showers.
.FRI...SW wind 20 kt except SE 35 kt from Port Moller E. Seas 7
ft. Rain showers.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON...S wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ170-060115-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
348 AM AKDT Thu Sep 5 2019

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...S wind 20 kt. From Unalaska E, S wind 25 kt becoming SE
35 kt in the afternoon. Seas 7 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt after midnight. Seas
6 ft. Rain.
.FRI...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN...S wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ171-060115-
Unalaska Bay-
348 AM AKDT Thu Sep 5 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...S wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...S wind 10 kt in the morning becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 1 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...S wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ172-060115-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
348 AM AKDT Thu Sep 5 2019

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 35 kt diminishing to 20 kt after midnight. 
Seas 12 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN...S wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON...W wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ173-060115-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
348 AM AKDT Thu Sep 5 2019

.TODAY...S wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI...W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...S wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ174-060115-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
348 AM AKDT Thu Sep 5 2019

.TODAY...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.MON...W wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ175-060115-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
348 AM AKDT Thu Sep 5 2019

.TODAY...S wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...W wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ176-060115-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
348 AM AKDT Thu Sep 5 2019

.TODAY...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.MON...W wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ177-060115-
Adak to Kiska-
348 AM AKDT Thu Sep 5 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN...W wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON...W wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ178-060115-
Kiska to Attu-
348 AM AKDT Thu Sep 5 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY AND FRIDAY...

.TODAY...N wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI...S wind 15 kt becoming SE 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN...N wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...S wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ179-060115-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
348 AM AKDT Thu Sep 5 2019

.TODAY...S wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. Patchy fog.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ180-060115-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
348 AM AKDT Thu Sep 5 2019

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain.
.FRI...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON...E wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ181-060115-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
348 AM AKDT Thu Sep 5 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 kt increasing to 25 kt after midnight. 
Seas 6 ft. Rain.
.FRI...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...S wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ185-060115-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
348 AM AKDT Thu Sep 5 2019

.TODAY...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

NWS Anchorage, AK wrote its last area forecast discussion before this gale warning went out at Sep 4, 4:26 PM AKDT, 11 hours 22 minutes earlier.

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
426 PM AKDT Wed Sep 4 2019

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
The upper level low center is situated near the Bering Strait and
has two troughs of note extending out of it. The stronger of the
two is digging southward through the Bering Sea and tapping into
the jet stream just to the south of the Central Aleutians. This
interaction is developing the next low that will track
northeastward into the Bering Sea.
The second low is over Southcentral Alaska and helping to keep the
clouds in place today. Clearing skies is evident on satellite
behind the trough.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
Model agreement is now good through Thursday night. On Friday some
more significant discrepancies creep in due to a low developing
along the front south of the Alaska Peninsula. Models do agree on
the development of this low, but the differences in both timing
and location will have a large effect of the pressure gradient
over especially the Bristol Bay region late Friday into Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...VFR conditions and light winds will persist.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Southcentral Alaska will see a RH values drop as with a drying
trend Thursday into Saturday as high pressure builds into the
area. The axis of the ridge should be over the Copper River Basin
so warmest temperatures should be there while farther west will
only see marginally warmer temperatures. Southwest Alaska will be
far enough away from the ridge that it will remain in moist
southwesterly flow aloft into the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3;
Tonight through Saturday evening)...

A shortwave trough is currently producing scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms in the Copper River Basin. These will
persist on and off through sunset. Elsewhere, a ridge building
over the Gulf is leading to clearing skies this evening. A slight
chance of showers remains possible through Thursday near the
mountains, though frequent sunshine is likely to continue across
Southcentral through Friday under the ridge. Fog is expected to
move further inland along Prince William Sound and Cook Inlet
Thursday and Friday mornings.

By Friday evening, a front moving into the southwestern Gulf will
cause increasing winds around Kodiak Island, Shelikof Strait, and
lower Cook Inlet, including the Barrens. The winds will increase
well into small craft advisory territory through Saturday. The
front will also bring another round of rain, up to one inch, to
Kodiak island. As the front tries to move north Saturday evening,
it will run into the strong ridge over Southcentral and weaken
quickly Saturday night. The front will cause increased winds
through the mountains, including Turnagain Arm, but only to 35 mph
at most. Very little, if any, rain is expected away from the
coast. Due to the warm, dry conditions along with some wind, fire
weather concerns will be increasing especially in the Copper
River Basin by Saturday.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3/Tonight through Saturday)...
A windy and wet pattern is on the way for the eastern Bering Sea
and Southwest Alaska coast. A weak low in the vicinity of the
central Aleutians and southern Bering Sea will stall tonight while
it's frontal system continues to progress north and east on the
front side of a positively tilted upper level trough. This will
spread rain and gusty southerly winds to the southern Alaska
Peninsula and Kuskokwim Delta.

Meanwhile, a short-wave moving through the base of the upper
trough will amplify the flow over the next 24 hours. This will
lead to a north-south oriented front from the eastern
Aleutians/southern Alaska Peninsula northward to around Nunivak
Island. As the short-wave lifts northward across the eastern
bering Sea, a series of frontal waves will track northward along
this front, leading to strengthening winds - particularly through
gaps in the Alaska Peninsula. This will also lead to heavier rain
along and out ahead of the front. Most of the rain for Southwest
Alaska will initially be confined to the Kuskokwim Delta and
Bristol Bay zone west of Dillingham. However, it looks like
another upper level short-wave will drive the trough and front
eastward Friday night through Saturday. This will spread rain and
wind up the Alaska Peninsula and across the entire Bristol Bay
zone.

Expect showery conditions on the back side of these systems across
the central to western Bering and Aleutians. An upper trough and
surface low will drop down from the vicinity of the Kamchatka
Peninsula Thursday to the Aleutian chain Friday through Saturday.
This will lead to stronger winds and rain, very common conditions
for this time of year.

&&

.MARINE (Days 3 through 5)...

Beginning the extended marine forecast period on Saturday, there
will be a low moving through Bristol Bay. Attached to this low is
a gale force front moving along the eastern AKPEN before stalling
and weakening on the western End of Kodiak Island. On Sunday, a
Siberian low will move south of the western Aleutians, bringing
small craft level winds and seas across the area. Confidence is
gaining that there will be southerly gale force gusts near Adak
ahead of this transient low.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7)...

Beginning the extended period forecast on Saturday evening, high
pressure will continue to dominate eastern Alaska. Inland areas
will stay dry and continue to remain above normal. Southwest
Alaska will be under the influence of a stalled and decaying low,
that will bring rain, cooler and windier conditions. This low
will weaken and lift towards Norton Sound into Monday giving brief
respite. Another deepening low pressure system will slide across
the Aleutian chain Sunday and weaken across the AKPEN Tuesday,
continuing a windy and rainy trend the Aleutians have been dealing
with this week.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...Gales 155 165 170 172 180.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...EZ
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...AP
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...SEB
MARINE/LONG TERM...SS

Gale Warnings in Alaska, 2019Every gale warning in 2019

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text.