Gale Warning 424, NWS Anchorage, AK

434 
FZAK52 PAFC 012336
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
336 PM AKDT Sun Sep 1 2019

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-021230-
336 PM AKDT Sun Sep 1 2019
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 975 mb low 105 nm west of Cape Newenham moves into the Bering 
Strait by Mon afternoon. A secondary front remains over the Bering
through Tue afternoon. 

$$

PKZ150-021230-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
336 PM AKDT Sun Sep 1 2019

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 35 kt. Seas 23 ft. Rain.
.MON...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft. Rain showers.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...S wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ155-021230-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
336 PM AKDT Sun Sep 1 2019

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 24 ft.
.MON...W wind 35 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED THROUGH FRI...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ160-021230-
Bristol Bay-
336 PM AKDT Sun Sep 1 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain showers.
.MON...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain showers.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE...S wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED...S wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ165-021230-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
336 PM AKDT Sun Sep 1 2019

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW wind increasing to 35 kt. Seas 13 ft. Rain showers.
.MON...W wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ170-021230-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
336 PM AKDT Sun Sep 1 2019

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 40 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.MON...W wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ171-021230-
Unalaska Bay-
336 PM AKDT Sun Sep 1 2019

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind increasing to 40 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain showers.
.MON...W wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 4 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...S wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ172-021230-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
336 PM AKDT Sun Sep 1 2019

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 40 kt. Seas 20 ft subsiding to 15 ft after
midnight.
.MON...W wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED THROUGH FRI...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ173-021230-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
336 PM AKDT Sun Sep 1 2019

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 35 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.MON...W wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ174-021230-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
336 PM AKDT Sun Sep 1 2019

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.MON...W wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...S wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ175-021230-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
336 PM AKDT Sun Sep 1 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.MON...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED...N wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ176-021230-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
336 PM AKDT Sun Sep 1 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.MON...W wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ177-021230-
Adak to Kiska-
336 PM AKDT Sun Sep 1 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE...S wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...N wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ178-021230-
Kiska to Attu-
336 PM AKDT Sun Sep 1 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED...E wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU...N wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...S wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ179-021230-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
336 PM AKDT Sun Sep 1 2019

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...W wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft. Rain.
.MON...W wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ180-021230-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
336 PM AKDT Sun Sep 1 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain showers.
.MON...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft. Rain showers.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.WED...S wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...E wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ181-021230-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
336 PM AKDT Sun Sep 1 2019

...GALE WARNING MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain showers.
.MON...W wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft building to 12 ft in the afternoon.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.WED...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ185-021230-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
336 PM AKDT Sun Sep 1 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain.
.MON...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain showers.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
521 PM AKDT Sat Aug 31 2019

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
All the attention today is on a large deep storm system which will
impact the entire forecast area. The low, which has now occluded
and become vertically stacked, bottomed out somewhere in the
upper 960s(mb). It is drifting eastward along the central
Aleutians - between Atka and Dutch Harbor. A gale force occluded
front is wrapped around the low center then extends north and east
across the eastern Bering Sea, then back southeastward to the
Alaska Peninsula. Winds are accelerating through gaps in the
Aleutian Islands and southern Alaska Peninsula, with multiple
observations showing gusts to around 50 kts. Moderate to heavy
rain in the vicinity of the low center and along the front has
produced an inch or more of rain in most locations. Winds are
strengthening across Southwest Alaska as the front approaches
this afternoon.

Out ahead of this storm system, a short-wave trough which moved
across Southwest Alaska yesterday and Southcentral last night
is exiting across the Copper River Basin today. There are a few
lingering showers across Southcentral along with widespread cloud
cover.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
Models are in good agreement with large scale features over the
next few days and forecast confidence is above average. The
primary forecast challenges will be: 1) The strength of gap
winds as the strong frontal system pushes onshore across the
southern mainland over the next 24 to 36 hours. 2) Details of
precipitation as a plethora of waves rotating around the low
center cross the southern mainland Monday through Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...VFR conditions and light winds will persist. The strong
frontal system moving in from the Bering Sea will lead to a
ramping up of Turnagain Arm winds and mountain-top winds tonight
through Sunday. With pressure gradients primarily favoring down-
Inlet flow the Turnagain Arm jet will remain south of the terminal
over the northern Inlet. However, do expect low level wind shear
to develop sometime early Sunday morning with southeasterly winds
aloft moving over top of a shallow northwesterly wind at and near
the surface. As the down Inlet gradients weaken Sunday afternoon,
will likely begin to see some of the southeasterly winds bend into
Anchorage, though it is not a sure thing.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
The forecast is on track to bring strong and gusty east to southeasterly
winds to many of the ongoing fires, namely in Bristol Bay and
across the Kenai Peninsula. Rainfall will depend heavily on
proximity to mountains as downslope flow plays a key role with
this system. However, behind the initial frontal system, the mean
flow will shift to south to southwest and a series of upper level
short-waves will rotate across the region. This will bring a good
chance of wetting rains to all of the fires Monday through Tuesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2: Tonight
through Monday)...

Southcentral's second round of rain in as many days is on its way
to the area this afternoon. A strong front associated with a
Bering low is moving northeastward, and will begin to spread rain
across Kodiak, Homer, and the Gulf Coast side of the Kenai
Peninsula tonight. The rain will spread into Valdez and Cordova
Sunday morning. Rainfall amounts of anywhere from 1 to 3 inches
are expected along the Gulf coast and along the east-facing
slopes of the Alaska Range through Sunday night. For the rest of
Southcentral, however, this period will feature little in the way
of rain, as rain shadowing will play a much larger role with this
second round of rain than the first. By Monday, with the initial
front having dissipated, broad onshore south to southwesterly
wind flow takes over. The passage of a couple upper level
disturbances during the day should allow for increasing chances of
rain through the day in the previously rain-shadowed areas,
including the western Kenai Peninsula, Anchorage, and the Mat-Su
Valleys. An increasingly unstable atmosphere during the day Monday
will enhance showers activity over the area, which may be heavy
at times. Shower activity is expected to persist through Monday
night and into Tuesday.

Turning now to the wind aspect of this event, this will be
Southcentral's first fall windstorm. The winds will increase
Sunday morning, though the breezes are already elevated somewhat
around Turnagain Arm and higher elevations. The winds will peak on
Sunday evening, persisting through the overnight, then gradually
diminish on Monday. A Special Weather Statement has been issued
for peak winds of 55 to 65 mph on the Upper Anchorage Hillside and
through Turnagain Arm, especially Sunday evening and Sunday night.
Elsewhere, mountain top winds and winds along the Lower Anchorage
Hillside may see gusts up to 55 mph, with those strong winds more
likely the higher in elevation you go. A barrier jet will be in
place at the same time across the northern Gulf and Prince William
Sound, which will cause gale force winds as the front moves into
the coast. Increased winds are also expected through the Knik
River Valley especially, but eventually also increasing through
the Matanuska Valley as well. Gusty southeasterly winds are also
expected through the Copper River Basin, including through
Glennallen right through Monday. The lower elevations of the
Anchorage Bowl away from the favored terrain gaps should keep
relatively light winds for most of the event, but an occasional
gust is possible. By Monday, the Turnagain Arm wind may impact the
south and west sides of town, but with the core of the strongest
winds expected to remain offshore, the wind speeds are not
expected to reach damaging levels in town.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...

Radar imagery this afternoon showed the much anticipated front
approaching Bristol Bay and the Southwest coast. This strong
front will continue to push inland overnight over the Kuskokwim
Delta and Valley, bringing widespread rain and gusty southeasterly
winds along with it. The front will continue to spread across the
region as it occludes, keeping cloudy conditions through the next
few days.

By Monday, this widespread rain will transitions to a showery
pattern as upper level waves continue to rotate around the low. As
the low progresses eastward, strong sustained southwest winds
will become the concern for coastal areas of Southwest from
Goodnews Bay and areas north of there through Tuesday. These areas
could experience minor coastal flooding and erosion, especially
during high tides, as these westerly winds impact the region.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...

The gale force low centered over the central Aleutians this
afternoon has reached its max intensity as it continues its
occlusion process. A small swatch of storm force wind gusts are
still possible on the back side of this low through the evening
hours. As this low progresses eastward towards the AKPEN and
Southwest coast, gale force winds are expected to continue through
tomorrow, before weakening to mostly small crafts by Monday
evening. High seas and widespread rain are expected to continue
through the next few days with this system.

&&

.MARINE (Days 3 through 5: Monday through Wednesday)...

The broad gale force low south of the Aleutians will be in the
eastern Bering Sea by Monday. The low continues to track
northeastward and will move across the Bering before drifting
northward to the Arctic. Gale force winds are expected across the
eastern Bering on Monday, but will gradually diminish, and by
Tuesday winds are expected to be westerly and sub-gale force. In
the Gulf of Alaska, winds will already have diminished below gale
force by Monday and are expected to continue to weaken through
Wednesday.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7: Monday through Friday)...

By Monday, the low that is currently transiting the Aleutians will
have moved significantly northward and will be positioned just off
Norton Sound. The associated fronts will be well onshore,
continuing to cause rain over most of the mainland. For most of
Southcentral, the upper level flow will become more southerly,
which should bring a period of rain up Cook Inlet and into the
Mat-Su Valley. Copper River Basin is still expected to remain
mostly dry, with the front falling apart over the Chugach
mountains to the south.

Along the West Coast, by Monday the direction of the winds will
have switched to be more westerly in nature, bringing onshore flow
in particularly to Kuskokwim Bay. This doesn't look like a huge
event, but the long fetch across the Bering Sea will increase
winds and waves for the region, with the possibility of some minor
erosion in particular near Goodnews Bay. This westerly flow will
continue through Tuesday and finally become more southerly on
Tuesday night as the main low pressure center slightly retrogrades
to the west.

By Tuesday night, the parent low will have weakened significantly
and this will reduce the impacts for the rest of the weak. East of
the Alaska Range may even see some clearing mid week as weak
ridging builds in. Aloft, however, we will still be under the
influence of the longwave trough, so overall the pattern will
remain unsettled. Models have not had good consistency on timing
and positioning of surface features beginning on Thursday and
continuing through the end of the week. With the longwave trough
still in position, we can expect a more active, fall-like pattern,
although when and where the next low pressure systems move in is
still in question.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...Gale Warning...119 125 130 131 132 150 155 160 165 170
                        171 172 173 174 175 177 179 180 181 185
                        412 413 414
         Storm Warning..176
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...SEB
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...JW
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...AH
MARINE/LONG TERM...LF