Gale Warning 423, NWS Anchorage, AK

245 
FZAK61 PAFC 301154
OFFAER

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
354 AM AKDT Mon Sep 30 2019

Offshore waters forecast for the Gulf of Alaska West of 144W

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ399-010030-
354 AM AKDT Mon Sep 30 2019
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...A strengthening 1007 mb
low at 60N 146W moves to 59N 149W at 986 mb by Tue morning then 
moves to 57N 142W at 989 mb by Wed morning.

$$

PKZ351-010030-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore North of 57N and West of 144W-
354 AM AKDT Mon Sep 30 2019

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...

.TODAY...W wind up to 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TONIGHT...W to S wind up to 15 kt increasing to 20 to 35 kt after 
midnight. Seas 6 to 9 ft. Rain. Slight chance of thunderstorms 
towards morning.
.TUE...S wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft. Rain showers. Slight
chance of thunderstorms.
.TUE NIGHT...N wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 13 ft.
.WED...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...W wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 8 ft.

$$

PKZ352-010030-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore South of 57N North of 55N and West of
144W-
354 AM AKDT Mon Sep 30 2019

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...W wind 10 to 25 kt increasing to 20 to 35 kt after
midnight. Seas 7 to 12 ft. Rain. Slight chance of thunderstorms
towards morning.
.TUE...W wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft. Rain showers. Slight
chance of thunderstorms.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft.
.WED...NW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...W wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 8 ft.

$$

932 
FZAK61 PAFC 302331
OFFAER

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
331 PM AKDT Mon Sep 30 2019

Offshore waters forecast for the Gulf of Alaska West of 144W

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ399-011315-
331 PM AKDT Mon Sep 30 2019
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...

A 1001 mb low at 58N 147W loops to 56N 139W at 990 mb by Wed 
afternoon. Its front pushes across the Gulf through Wed afternoon.
High pressure edges into the Western Gulf for Wed afternoon.

$$

PKZ351-011315-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore North of 57N and West of 144W-
331 PM AKDT Mon Sep 30 2019

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...S wind up to 15 kt increasing to 15 to 30 kt after
midnight. Seas 6 to 11 ft. Rain showers. Isolated thunderstorms after
midnight.
.TUE...S wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 9 to 16 ft. Widespread rain
showers. Isolated thunderstorms.
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 10 to 15 ft. Rain showers.
Isolated thunderstorms.
.WED...N wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 12 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind up to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 9 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...W wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft.
.SAT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.

$$

PKZ352-011315-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore South of 57N North of 55N and West of
144W-
331 PM AKDT Mon Sep 30 2019

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 15 to 30 kt increasing to 25 to 40 kt after
midnight. Seas 8 to 13 ft. Rain showers. Isolated thunderstorms.
.TUE...W wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 16 to 24 ft. Rain showers. Isolated
thunderstorms.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 16 to 25 ft. Rain showers.
Isolated thunderstorms.
.WED...NW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...W wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 8 ft.
.SAT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 11 to 18 ft.

$$

304 
FZAK61 PAFC 011158
OFFAER

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
358 AM AKDT Tue Oct 1 2019

Offshore waters forecast for the Gulf of Alaska West of 144W

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ399-020030-
358 AM AKDT Tue Oct 1 2019
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...A 984 mb low at 58N
150W moves to 57N 143W at 991 mb by Wed morning then moves into the 
southeast Gulf at 1006 mb by Thu morning.

$$

PKZ351-020030-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore North of 57N and West of 144W-
358 AM AKDT Tue Oct 1 2019

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...S wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 11 to 18 ft. Widespread rain
showers. Slight chance of thunderstorms.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 11 to 16 ft. Widespread rain
showers. Slight chance of thunderstorms.
.WED...N wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 13 ft. Slight chance of
thunderstorms in the morning.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind up to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 9 ft.
.THU...W wind up to 10 kt. Seas 3 to 6 ft.
.FRI...W wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 8 ft.
.SAT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.

$$

PKZ352-020030-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore South of 57N North of 55N and West of
144W-
358 AM AKDT Tue Oct 1 2019

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 15 to 27 ft. Widespread rain
showers. Slight chance of thunderstorms.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 16 to 26 ft. Widespread rain
showers. Slight chance of thunderstorms.
.WED...NW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft. Slight chance of
thunderstorms in the morning.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.THU...W wind up to 10 kt. Seas 3 to 7 ft.
.FRI...W wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 8 ft.
.SAT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 11 to 18 ft.

$$

275 
FZAK61 PAFC 012351
OFFAER

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
351 PM AKDT Tue Oct 1 2019

Offshore waters forecast for the Gulf of Alaska West of 144W

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ399-021315-
351 PM AKDT Tue Oct 1 2019
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...

A 987 mb low at 58N 149W Tuesday afternoon moves to 56N 142W and 
weakens to 998 mb Wednesday afternoon, then moves into the Eastern
Gulf.

$$

PKZ351-021315-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore North of 57N and West of 144W-
351 PM AKDT Tue Oct 1 2019

.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 10 to 14 ft. Showers and
isolated thunderstorms. 
.WED...N wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft. Chance of thunderstorms
in the morning.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft.
.THU...W wind up to 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 9 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NW wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.

$$

PKZ352-021315-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore South of 57N North of 55N and West of
144W-
351 PM AKDT Tue Oct 1 2019

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 14 to 22 ft. Showers and
isolated thunderstorms.
.WED...NW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft. Chance of thunderstorms
in the morning. 
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 15 to 30 kt diminishing to up to 20 kt after
midnight. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.THU...W wind up to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 6 ft.
.THU NIGHT...N wind up to 10 kt. Seas 3 to 6 ft.
.FRI...W wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 8 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft.

$$

173 
FZAK61 PAFC 021140
OFFAER

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
340 AM AKDT Wed Oct 2 2019

Offshore waters forecast for the Gulf of Alaska West of 144W

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ399-030130-
340 AM AKDT Wed Oct 2 2019
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...

A 993 mb low at 57N 144W moves to 55N 139W at 1009 mb by Thu
morning as high pressure builds into the western Gulf.

$$

PKZ351-030130-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore North of 57N and West of 144W-
340 AM AKDT Wed Oct 2 2019

.TODAY...N wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 11 ft.
.TONIGHT...N wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 9 ft.
.THU...W wind up to 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind up to 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.

$$

PKZ352-030130-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore South of 57N North of 55N and West of
144W-
340 AM AKDT Wed Oct 2 2019

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.THU...W wind up to 10 kt in the morning becoming variable 10 kt.
Seas 5 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NW wind up to 10 kt. Seas 3 to 6 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.

$$

716 
FZAK61 PAFC 022320
OFFAER

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
320 PM AKDT Wed Oct 2 2019

Offshore waters forecast for the Gulf of Alaska West of 144W

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ399-031345-
320 PM AKDT Wed Oct 2 2019
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...

A 1002 mb low at 57N 142W moves to 55N 139W at 1009 mb Thu morning 
as a weak ridge builds into the western Gulf.

$$

PKZ351-031345-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore North of 57N and West of 144W-
320 PM AKDT Wed Oct 2 2019

.TONIGHT...N wind up to 20 kt becoming NW after midnight. Seas 8
ft.
.THU...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 9 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT THROUGH MON...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.

$$

PKZ352-031345-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore South of 57N North of 55N and West of
144W-
320 PM AKDT Wed Oct 2 2019

.TONIGHT...NW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.THU...W wind up to 10 kt in the morning becoming variable 10 kt.
Seas 5 ft.
.THU NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt becoming NW up to 10 kt after
midnight. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI...W wind up to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 8 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT THROUGH MON...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
459 AM AKDT Sun Sep 29 2019

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
Ridging remains over eastern Alaska, extending up from the North
Pacific. A high amplitude trough extends through the central
Bering while it tracks to the east. This setup has helped to pull
up tropical moisture over southern Alaska bringing rain across the
area with the heaviest over southwest Alaska. Additionally, a
strong push of warm air was also brought into the southern
mainland in this setup.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
Models are in good agreement with large scale features over the
next couple days and overall forecast confidence is high.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...Strong southeasterly Turnagain Arm winds combined with
light surface winds will bring windshear to the airport through
the morning. As the Turnagain Arm wind diminishes in the
afternoon, wind shear will diminish as well. A front will push
through this afternoon which will drop the ceiling and visibility
until the evening when the front clears. There is high confidence
that the visibility will rise after the front leaves, but there is
some uncertainty as to how high the ceiling will be overnight.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2...Sun and
Mon)...
The forecast remains on track with windy and wet conditions
persisting today before a slight drying trend moves in for Mon.
The initial warm front moved through late Sat evening. This
brought some light rain to much of the area and opened the door
for the strong southeast winds to start to blow through the gaps.
A brief break in the rain will continue through the early morning
hours as those southeast winds create some downsloping conditions
in the lee of the Kenai and Chugach mountains. However, this break
is slated to end in a dramatic way by early this afternoon. A
broad trough over the West Coast will push a shortwave up Cook
Inlet. This will switch flow to S-SW at nearly all levels. This is
a very wet pattern for the Anchorage Bowl and much of the Susitna
and Matanuska Valleys with nothing to impede the long fetch of
subtropical moisture into the area. So as winds die down, expect
rain to start to fall in earnest. QPF amounts were only adjusted
slightly for this forecast package. Thus we are still expecting
around 0.50" for much of the Anchorage Bowl with closed to 1.5"
for coastal locations through early Mon morning.

This system will create a weak surface low over the Northern Gulf
heading into Mon. This will help to keep some light rain over the
Cordova area and leave inland locations vulnerable to showers.
However, even with those showers, Mon will be a much drier day
than Sun. This low will keep some gusty northwest winds through
the Barren Islands with some associated weak cold air advection.
The most interesting aspect of the low is that as it slowly
retrogrades (moves west) late Mon into Tue, it will actually
deepen significantly by Tue. This is due to a strong upper level
vorticity maximum coming over it from the west and providing
healthy upper level support. As the low deepens somewhere just
east of Kodiak Island, expect more rain to move into all of
Southcentral. The heaviest rain will once again be in Prince
William Sound. On the western periphery of the low, expect gusty
northwest winds to develop for Kodiak Island and Shelikof Strait
as some cooler air is pulled through the Aleutian/Alaska Ranges.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...
The frontal system currently stretched across the Lower Kuskokwim
Valley and Greater Bristol Bay area and bringing abundant
rainfall to those areas will continue to move slowly to the east
through morning and cross the Alaska Range this afternoon. Cooler
upper level troughing will become established along the coast
tonight with southwesterly flow bringing scattered showers
onshore. As the upper level trough swings inland on Monday, the
general flow will turn more northwesterly. The northwesterly flow
will then increase Monday afternoon through Tuesday morning as
upper level ridging strengthens over the eastern Bering and a low
spins up in the western Gulf. The northwest winds will begin
gradually diminishing Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday night as
the upper ridge flattens and the low moves farther away to the
east.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3)...
An upper level ridge will build over the western Aleutians today
with the broad upper level trough currently stretching across the
Bering and Aleutians shifting to the east. The upper level ridge
will progress east to reach the Central Bering Monday and eastern
Bering Monday night. Northwesterly winds will increase along the
east side of the ridge Monday with winds strengthening across the
Alaska Peninsula Monday night through Tuesday morning. The flow
across the Bering will become more westerly Tuesday and Wednesday
as the upper ridge flattens.

&&

.MARINE (Days 3 through 5)...

A deep low will develop in the northern Gulf of Alaska by early
Tuesday. While there's still some uncertainty with location of
the low's center, confidence is growing that there will be
widespread gales, with potential for storm force winds in some
areas. In particular, expect storm force gusts, if not sustained
winds out of Kamishak Bay and over the Barren Islands. As the low
exits to the east Wednesday, a barrier jet could develop along the
North Gulf Coast. This will depend on how far north the low
tracks. By Thursday, expect mostly benign conditions over the
Gulf.

Over the Bering/Aleutians, no impactful storms expected until late
Thursday at the earliest. A low will develop in eastern Siberia
early Thursday, possibly bringing gales to the central Bering late
Thursday night as it progresses eastward and strengthens.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...

A deep low will be positioned in the northern Gulf of AK Tuesday.
Strong winds on Kodiak Island and along the North Gulf Coast are
likely. As the associated warm front and trailing cold front
traverse Southcentral from south to north, expect precipitation to
make it inland. That said, heaviest precipitation will be along
the North Gulf Coast and Kodiak Island. While the low exits to the
east, a highly amplified ridge over the Bering will cut off a
high, and a shortwave will develop over eastern Siberia. This
feature isn't well handled in the latest models, but in general
expect increased west winds and precipitation along the Kuskokwim
Delta Coast Wednesday into Thursday as the cold front pushes
inland. As the trough progresses to the east Thursday into Friday,
Southcentral will get another chance of precipitation. A stronger
shortwave will develop over eastern Siberia Thursday into Friday.
Again, not handled all that well by models given the upstream
extratropical transition of (current) tropical storm Mitag. But,
as of now gusty winds and another round of precipitation look
likely in Southwest Friday as the low tracks inland, and
precipitation will spread to Southcentral Saturday.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...Gales...119, 120, 125, 130, 131.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...DK
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...MSO
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...JR
MARINE/LONG TERM...MM