Gale Warning 42, NWS Anchorage, AK

689 
FZAK52 PAFC 090054
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
354 PM AKST Tue Jan 8 2019

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-091345-
354 PM AKST Tue Jan 8 2019
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...A front over the central
Bering associated with a 978 mb Kamchatka low Tue afternoon weakens 
and moves into the northwest Bering through Wed afternoon. A 940 mb 
low moves 300 nm southeast of Shemya Thu afternoon while its 
associated front reaches the central Bering.

$$

PKZ150-091345-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
354 PM AKST Tue Jan 8 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED...E wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.WED NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU...N wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI...E wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SUN...E wind 15 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ155-091345-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
354 PM AKST Tue Jan 8 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft. Rain showers.
.WED...E wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.THU...E wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.SUN...S wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

PKZ160-091345-
Bristol Bay-
354 PM AKST Tue Jan 8 2019

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 4 ft.
.WED...NE wind 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 4 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 4 ft. Heavy
freezing spray.
.THU...NE wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 5 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 5 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 6 ft.
.SAT...E wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 5 ft.
.SUN...E wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 4 ft.

$$

PKZ165-091345-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
354 PM AKST Tue Jan 8 2019

.TONIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED...E wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. Freezing spray east of Port
Moller. 
.THU...E wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ170-091345-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
354 PM AKST Tue Jan 8 2019

.TONIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU...E wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU NIGHT...E wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.FRI...E wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.SAT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ171-091345-
Unalaska Bay-
354 PM AKST Tue Jan 8 2019

.TONIGHT...NE wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less
than 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming NE 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 3 ft. Rain showers.
.WED NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming E 10 kt after
midnight. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...E wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI...E wind 30 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...S wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ172-091345-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
354 PM AKST Tue Jan 8 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.WED...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft. Rain showers.
.WED NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.THU...E wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.THU NIGHT...E wind 40 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.FRI...E wind 35 kt. Seas 27 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...S wind 25 kt. Seas 19 ft.

$$

PKZ173-091345-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
354 PM AKST Tue Jan 8 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...E wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.THU NIGHT...E wind 45 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.FRI...E wind 40 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ174-091345-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
354 PM AKST Tue Jan 8 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.WED...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU...E wind 40 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 28 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 28 ft.
.SAT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 16 ft.

$$

PKZ175-091345-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
354 PM AKST Tue Jan 8 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED NIGHT...E wind 20 kt increasing to 30 kt after midnight. Seas
7 ft.
.THU...E wind 40 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.THU NIGHT...E wind 45 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.FRI...E wind 40 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.SUN...N wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.

$$

PKZ176-091345-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
354 PM AKST Tue Jan 8 2019

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.WED...W wind 15 kt in the morning becoming variable 10 kt. Seas
10 ft.
.WED NIGHT...E wind 25 kt increasing to 40 kt after midnight. Seas
12 ft.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...SE wind 45 kt. Seas 32 ft.
.FRI...S wind 30 kt. Seas 29 ft.
.SAT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.SUN...N wind 20 kt. Seas 15 ft.

$$

PKZ177-091345-
Adak to Kiska-
354 PM AKST Tue Jan 8 2019

...STORM WARNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.WED...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 35 kt becoming E 50 kt after midnight. Bering
side, seas 7 ft building to 14 ft after midnight. Pacific side,
seas 11 ft building to 21 ft after midnight.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...E wind 50 kt. Seas 33 ft.
.FRI...E wind 45 kt. Seas 25 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 24 ft.
.SUN...N wind 30 kt. Seas 22 ft.

$$

PKZ178-091345-
Kiska to Attu-
354 PM AKST Tue Jan 8 2019

...STORM WARNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft. Snow showers.
.WED...SW wind 25 kt becoming S 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 13
ft.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt becoming E 50 kt after midnight. Bering
side, seas 8 ft building to 13 ft after midnight. Pacific side,
seas 10 ft building to 20 ft after midnight. Snow.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...NE wind 50 kt. Seas 32 ft.
.FRI...E wind 50 kt. Seas 32 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 28 ft.
.SUN...N wind 30 kt. Seas 23 ft.

$$

PKZ179-091345-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
354 PM AKST Tue Jan 8 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt becoming E 15 kt after midnight. Seas
12 ft.
.WED...E wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft. Snow.
.THU...E wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU NIGHT...E wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

PKZ180-091345-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
354 PM AKST Tue Jan 8 2019

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 5 ft. Heavy
freezing spray.
.WED...NE wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 5 ft. Heavy freezing
spray.
.WED NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 5 ft. Heavy
freezing spray.
.THU...NE wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 5 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 6 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 7 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 9 ft.
.SUN...E wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 7 ft.

$$

PKZ181-091345-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
354 PM AKST Tue Jan 8 2019

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 20 kt. 
.WED...NE wind 20 kt. 
.WED NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. 
.THU AND THU NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt.
.FRI...NE wind 25 kt.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NE wind 30 kt.

$$

PKZ185-091345-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
354 PM AKST Tue Jan 8 2019

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft. Freezing spray.
.WED...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft. Freezing spray.
.WED NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.THU...E wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.THU NIGHT...E wind 40 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
522 PM AKST Mon Jan 7 2019

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

An upper level ridge remains in place extending along an axis
from Southwest Alaska to the Gulf of Alaska. Out west, an upper
level Kamchatka low has retreated from the Bering to the
northwest, but its corresponding fronts continue to move eastward
over the central and eastern Aleutians. Cold air on the backside
of this Kamchatka low is filling in over the western Aleutians,
producing gusty westerly gales.

Cold air continues to pour in over Mainland Alaska as well. An
Arctic high centered north of the state has generated plenty of
cold air advection and brought temperatures down well below zero
across the Interior and also across Southcentral, especially in
and around the Copper River Basin. Fog and low level stratus
persist across Southwest and Southcentral again today in response
to subsidence associated with the ridge of high pressure. Radar
imagery shows some showers over Bethel as the approaching, albeit
weakened, eastern Bering front begins to move inland.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

Models remain in generally good synoptic agreement through the
next 48 hours. Localized challenges include fog and low level
stratus that persists around Cook Inlet and both Turnagain and
Knik Arms. By Wed evening, models indicate discrepancies with the
placement and strength of an incoming North Pacific low over the
western Aleutians. Models are also struggling with the timing of
an upper level low moving in from the north over the Mainland by
the end of the week. At this time, higher resolution models were
preferred to help resolve local effects such as wind and fog.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...Expect at least some improvement in ceiling/vis late this
afternoon through early evening as some mid level clouds move
overhead. However, don't think this will be enough to completely
erode all of the fog and stratus in the area, so it could expand
later tonight once mid clouds pass by. Forecast confidence in
details of location of fog (and specific conditions at the
terminal) remains low.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2: Tonight
through Wednesday)...

Relatively quiet weather is expected to continue across nearly all
of Southcentral for the next couple days. The fog that has stayed
across the lower elevations of the Anchorage Bowl may be disrupted
during the evening hours by some passing higher stratus, but it
appears unlikely at this point that the stratus will persist long
enough to entirely dissipate the fog. Thus, it has been added to
the forecast into Tuesday morning, when more extensive cloud
cover is expected.

The winds are slowly dying down across Thompson Pass this evening.
This should allow the wind chills to rise generally into the -30s
for the rest of the night, and the Wind Chill Advisory there will
expire at 5 pm.

The latest model runs have trended much further west with a system
that had potential to bring a light snowfall to Anchorage and the
surrounding areas Tuesday evening. Now, all of the models have
shifted west, leaving the area dry for that time frame. That wave
eventually does swing across Southcentral, but not until Wednesday
night. Now it is expected to move through from the northwest,
which allows the Alaska Range to keep nearly all of the associated
moisture. Thus, other than potential snow showers from any remnant
moisture, Southcentral remains dry.

Finally, temperatures are expected to moderate just a bit the next
couple days, as highs get into the low to mid teens in Anchorage,
and lows stay above zero courtesy of the additional cloud cover.
This still will keep Anchorage below average temperature-wise. On
Wednesday night after the aforementioned front goes through,
temperatures drop once again to readings at or even a few degrees
colder than last night's temperatures. Bundle up!

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...

An occluded front will move inland across Southwest Alaska tonight
then move inland Tuesday. This will bring accumulating snowfall
to most of Southwest, with the highest amounts east of the
Kilbuck Mountains. Blowing snow is likely and may briefly reduce
visibilities across the Kuskokwim Delta to a half mile with
northeast winds in the 30 MPH range. A winter weather advisory
for blowing snow has been issued for this threat, as well as the
fact that wind chills may fall as low as -20 to -30 F along with
blowing snow. As the front moves inland, it will stall across the
interior and drop more accumulating snow, possibly as high as 5",
over parts of northern Bristol Bay and the Lower Kuskokwim Valley.
However, confidence in the placement of this snow band is not
very high, but the threat does exist for brief heavier snowfall
Tuesday into Wednesday morning. Snow will end Wednesday afternoon
as northerly offshore flow commences.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...
An occluded front associated with a low near Kamchatka is pushing
through Cold Bay, bringing precipitation and increased south
winds. This front will continue pushing eastward tonight and
slowly dissipating, with weak ridging in its wake. A series of
shortwaves rotating around that low over Kamchatka can be seen on
satellite. One impulse is currently bringing gale force winds to
Shemya, and expect that front to bring gales and precipitation to
the central Aleutians and into the central Bering into Tuesday
afternoon. Showers will continue over much of the area into
Wednesday, but expect general benign conditions until the next
storm force low approaches Thursday.

&&

.MARINE (Days 3 through 5)...

Beginning Thursday, forecast confidence remains high as a strong
945 mb North Pacific low approaches the Western Aleutians. This
system will spread gale force winds across most of the Western
Aleutians and north into the Western Bering Sea. Models have
actually been strengthening the low over the past couple of days,
so there is now increasing confidence that storm force winds will
impact locations between Adak and Shemya on Thursday. Areas of
storm force winds could also redevelop on Friday over zones 413
and 414 as the low pushes north then exits to the west of Shemya,
though models are still working out the details for this time
period. Regardless, there is rather high confidence that most of
the Western Bering (west of the Pribilofs) will see sustained
east to northeast gale force winds through the weekend with wave
heights increasing to 20-30 ft. Additionally, the potential for
heavy freezing spray will increase by Saturday over the Northern
Bering as frigid air spills south from mainland Alaska.

The Gulf of Alaska is expected to see rather benign conditions
with high pressure maintaining through Saturday.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7)...

The long term forecast begins Friday as a large dome of cold
arctic air spills south across mainland Alaska under a descending
polar vortex. The coldest air will stay north of the Alaska Range
but cold air will still seep south across mainland Alaska. This
will likely lead to the coldest temperatures seen over the region
in the past couple of years, with lows in interior locations
across southern Alaska, especially southwest Alaska, dropping
below -30F Friday morning. Luckily, the cold outbreak will be
short-lived as a strong North Pacific low south of the Aleutians
will help to re-establish a broad upper level low over the Bering
as we head into the weekend. As the low deepens, a downstream
ridge over the Pacific West Coast will amplify causing a portion
of the jet stream to push north up into the Gulf of Alaska. This
will lead to a return of strong southerly flow with much warmer
air spreading north by the end of the weekend. There is still
quite a bit of model uncertainty regarding the specific timing and
track of multiple lows and short-waves pushing across the Gulf,
but there is increasing confidence of warmer, wetter, and overall
more unsettled weather over the southern mainland as we head into
next week.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Winter Weather Advisory 155.
MARINE...Gale Warning 175 178 185.
         Heavy Freezing Spray Warning 127 139 140 185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...DK
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...JW
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...MM/JA
MARINE/LONG TERM...KVP