Gale Warning 413, NWS Anchorage, AK

007 
FZAK62 PAFC 161131
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
331 AM AKDT Mon Sep 16 2019

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-170115-
331 AM AKDT Mon Sep 16 2019
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 996 mb low at 49N 178E moves to 59N 175W at 993 mb by Tue
morning and then moves to 60N 165W at 985 mb by Wed morning. A front
approaches the western Aleutians by Wed morning associated with a 
981 mb low at 49N 168E. 

$$

PKZ411-170115-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
331 AM AKDT Mon Sep 16 2019

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 4 to 9 ft.
.TONIGHT...N wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.TUE...N wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...N wind up to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft.
.WED...NE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 10 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NE wind up to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 9 ft.

$$

PKZ412-170115-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
331 AM AKDT Mon Sep 16 2019

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY...

.TODAY...NE wind up to 20 kt becoming E 15 to 30 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 3 to 7 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft. Rain.
.TUE...NE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...N wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.WED THROUGH FRI...N wind up to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 9 ft.

$$

PKZ413-170115-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
331 AM AKDT Mon Sep 16 2019

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...E wind 15 to 30 kt becoming N 20 to 35 kt after
midnight. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.WED...SE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...N wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 9 ft.

$$

PKZ414-170115-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
331 AM AKDT Mon Sep 16 2019

.TODAY...NE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 8 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft. Rain.
.TUE...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft.
.WED...NW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 9 ft.
.THU...NE wind up to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 6 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

131 
FZAK62 PAFC 162359
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
359 PM AKDT Mon Sep 16 2019

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-171345-
359 PM AKDT Mon Sep 16 2019
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 996 mb low at 52N 178W moves to 56N 172W at 987 mb Tue
afternoon then inland over western Alaska on Thu. A front 
associated with a 986 mb North Pacific low will impact the western
Aleutians early Wed morning and the central Aleutians Wed 
afternoon.

$$

PKZ411-171345-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
359 PM AKDT Mon Sep 16 2019

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.TUE...N wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...N wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 10 ft.
.WED...NE wind up to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 9 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NE wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 7 to 11 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NE wind up to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 9 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ412-171345-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
359 PM AKDT Mon Sep 16 2019

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft. Rain.
.TUE...NE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...N wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.WED...N wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 8 to 11 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NE wind up to 15 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft.
.THU THROUGH SAT...N wind up to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 7 ft.

$$

PKZ413-171345-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
359 PM AKDT Mon Sep 16 2019

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...E of 175W, SE wind 15 to 30 kt. W of 175W, NW wind 20 to 
35 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.TUE...E of 175W, SE wind 10 to 25 kt becoming W in the afternoon. W
of 175W, NW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.WED...NW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft.
.WED NIGHT...E wind up to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft.
.THU THROUGH SAT...N wind up to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 9 ft.

$$

PKZ414-171345-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
359 PM AKDT Mon Sep 16 2019

.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft. Rain.
.TUE...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 5 to 9 ft. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft.
.WED...NW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 9 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind up to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft.
.THU...NE wind up to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 6 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...N wind up to 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

054 
FZAK62 PAFC 171200
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
400 AM AKDT Tue Sep 17 2019

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-180100-
400 AM AKDT Tue Sep 17 2019
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 990 mb low at 55N 175W moves to 59N 164W at 987 mb then
continues inland for Wed morning. Its front pushes into Western
Alaska by Wed afternoon. A 981 mb North Pacific low moves to 48N 
177W at 993 mb for Thu morning. Its front tracks into the Central
Aleutians through Thu morning.

$$

PKZ411-180100-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
400 AM AKDT Tue Sep 17 2019

.TODAY...N wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.TONIGHT...N wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 10 ft.
.WED...NE wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 10 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NE wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 7 to 11 ft.
.THU...N wind up to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 9 ft.
.FRI...SW wind up to 10 kt. Seas 3 to 6 ft.
.SAT...NW wind up to 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ412-180100-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
400 AM AKDT Tue Sep 17 2019

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft. Rain showers.
.TONIGHT...N wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.WED...N wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NE wind up to 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU...N wind up to 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI...W wind up to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 7 ft.
.SAT...N wind up to 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ413-180100-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
400 AM AKDT Tue Sep 17 2019

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft. Rain showers.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.WED...NW wind 10 to 25 kt becoming W up to 15 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 7 to 10 ft.
.WED NIGHT...E wind up to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft.
.THU...NE wind up to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 9 ft.
.FRI...W wind up to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 6 ft.
.SAT...N wind up to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 7 ft.

$$

PKZ414-180100-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
400 AM AKDT Tue Sep 17 2019

.TODAY...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 5 to 9 ft. Rain showers.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft. Rain showers.
.WED...W wind 10 to 25 kt becoming NW in the afternoon. 
Seas 6 to 10 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind up to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft.
.THU...N wind up to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 6 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NW wind up to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 6 ft.

$$

037 
FZAK62 PAFC 172346
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
346 PM AKDT Tue Sep 17 2019

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-181345-
346 PM AKDT Tue Sep 17 2019
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 987 mb low at 55N 172W moves inland over the Alaska Peninsula 
Wed morning. A 981 mb North Pacific low will track well south of 
the Aleutians through Thu afternoon, but its front moves over the
western Aleutians early Wed and the central Aleutians Wed night 
before weakening early Thu.

$$

PKZ411-181345-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
346 PM AKDT Tue Sep 17 2019

.TONIGHT...N wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.WED...NE wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 10 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NE wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft.
.THU...N wind up to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind up to 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI...SW wind up to 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...NW wind up to 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN...W wind 20 kt. Seas 4 to 8 ft.

$$

PKZ412-181345-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
346 PM AKDT Tue Sep 17 2019

.TONIGHT...N wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.WED...N wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 8 to 12 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...NE wind up to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft.
.THU NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI...W wind up to 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT...N wind up to 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 to 8 ft.

$$

PKZ413-181345-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
346 PM AKDT Tue Sep 17 2019

.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.WED...W wind 10 to 25 kt diminishing to up to 15 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 7 to 10 ft.
.WED NIGHT...Variable wind up to 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...NE wind up to 15 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft.
.THU NIGHT...N wind up to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft.
.FRI...W wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT...N wind up to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 7 ft.
.SUN...W wind 20 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.

$$

PKZ414-181345-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
346 PM AKDT Tue Sep 17 2019

.TONIGHT...S to W wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 10 ft.
.WED...NW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 10 ft.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft.
.THU...NW wind up to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 6 ft.
.THU NIGHT...N wind up to 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...NW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
855 AM AKDT Sun Sep 15 2019

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

An embedded trough axis within an upper level low in the Bering
is currently centered over Bristol Bay. The associated positive
vorticity advection combined with the left exit region of a
strong low level jet is leading to significant divergence aloft
which will help in enhancing precipitation. Ample moisture is
present with PWATs exceeding one inch, however total rain amounts
may be limited as the strong upper level westerly flow will cause
the system to quickly move across Southwest Alaska. Meanwhile,
much quieter conditions are seen farther east with a weak upper
level ridge in place between the aforementioned Bering low and
another upper low centered over the BC coast. This is leading to
mostly clear skies over Southcentral, though as such, patchy fog
is possible.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

While there are subtle timing differences, models remain in good
agreement regarding the progressive pattern over the next few
days. Confidence is high for widespread accumulating rainfall
today, with downsloping not being much of a factor in generally
southerly flow.

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions will generally persist through this morning,
although patchy fog may bring brief periods of lower ceilings,
particularly before sunrise. Rain is expected to move into
Anchorage this afternoon, with MVFR conditions likely through this
evening. Gusty southeasterly winds are likewise expected this
afternoon, but should only persist for 3-4 hours. Otherwise, light
winds will prevail.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2/Today
through Monday night)...

A strong upper level short-wave trough and surface front will
approach Southcentral today, with rain spreading from Kodiak
early this morning to the Kenai Peninsula, Anchorage and the
Mat-Su by midday. Rain intensity will be moderate to heavy at
times, especially in upslope areas along the eastern Kenai
Peninsula as well as Cook Inlet and the Susitna Valley. There
will be a period of southeasterly low level flow across the
Kenai and Chugach Mountains which will lead to lighter rainfall
amounts right in the lee of the mountains, including for Anchorage
and the Matanuska Valley. In particular, the Palmer area tends to
be quite a bit drier in this flow pattern and they may see very
little measurable rain out of this.

The upper level short-wave will weaken as it wraps north and then
west around the upper level low moving in from the Bering Sea
this evening. Thus, the best dynamics will never make it over to
the Copper River Basin, though weaker short-waves rotating around
the low center will produce some rain.

Meanwhile, a triple point surface low will form along the front
east-northeast of Kodiak Island this afternoon. This low will
strengthen in response to another strong short-wave south of the
upper low center. This low looks a little stronger than previous
forecasts, so have expanded the area of gale force winds over the
Gulf waters tonight into Monday. The low will quickly become
vertically stacked as the upper center arrives late this evening.
At this point in time, rain will begin to break up into showers
across Southcentral. Conditions will quickly dry out on Monday as
the low exits across the southeastern Gulf.

Winds will be strong and gusty across the western Gulf and Kodiak
Island behind the front beginning this afternoon. The primary
cause will be tight pressure gradients between the eastern Bering
Sea and Gulf, with a building ridge over the eastern Bering and
the deepening low over the Gulf. Pressure rises will accelerate
winds through the gaps of the Alaska Peninsula, leading to strong
gusts on the south side of the Alaska Peninsula and into the Gulf.
These winds will linger all the way through Monday before flow
finally begins to shift Monday night.

Gusty winds will also develop along the north Gulf coast and
Prince William Sound Monday afternoon through Monday night as
the Gulf low exits. As is typical, Seward/Resurrection Bay and
Whittier/Passage Canal will see some of the strongest winds.

Lastly, a short-wave trough diving out of the Arctic will swing
through interior Southcentral Monday night. Based on the latest
trends in the track and strength of this trough, it looks
favorable over the northern Susitna Valley and northern Copper
River Basin. Depending on the track of this short-wave, it could
also reinforce/strengthen offshore winds along the Gulf coast.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Most of Southcentral will see wetting rains with the system
moving in on Sunday. Gusty southeast winds will also develop
through the typical gaps, to include Turnagain and Knik Arms
and along the Copper River. The overall fall pattern, with
wetting rains every 2 or 3 days looks like it will persist
for at least the next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1-3: Sun-Tue)...

A strong front associated with a vertically stacked low in the
Bering will continue to bring widespread rain across Southwest
this afternoon along with gusty conditions. This system is moving
more quickly than the one that occurred earlier this week, thus
won't have quite as much rainfall totals associated in this round.
Rainfall accumulations between one half inch to an inch are
possible stretching from Bristol Bay to the Kuskokwim Coast and
Delta. The heaviest rainfall should taper off this afternoon, with
a few showers lingering across the region through the overnight
hours.

Monday will generally be a quiet day in terms of winds and
precipitation once this first system has moved into Southcentral
Alaska. Stronger winds and rainfall returns on Tuesday morning as
a new frontal boundary approaches the Southwest coast. This
system will continue to push inland through Tuesday afternoon,
brining another round of widespread rain once again to Southwest
Alaska.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1-2: Sun-Mon)...

A swath of small craft advisory level winds will continue across
the central and eastern Bering and Aleutians through tomorrow
morning as the low center pushes inland over Southwest Alaska.
Gale force winds can be expected near the AKPEN as westerly flow
continues this morning through the afternoon. As the wind shifts
to a northwesterly direction Monday morning, there will be gale
force winds out of bays and passes along the AKPEN, which will
weaken by Monday afternoon.

A new system will enter the western Bering on Monday. Models have
come into better agreement on the strength and position of this
storm track, thus increasing the winds to gale force beginning on
Monday morning. As this low progresses eastward, small craft
advisory winds, will continue across the central Bering and south
of the Aleutian Chain through Tuesday as the low weakens.

&&

.MARINE (Days 3 through 5)...

There is high confidence of a low moving through the central
Bering on Tuesday that will bring gale force winds to the area. As
the low tracks to the east and weakens winds will diminish for
the Bering and Gulf. There is good confidence that another low
will approach the Aleutians Wednesday into Thursday and that it
will bring small craft winds to the islands.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...

Models are starting to fall in line with the system tracking
across the Bering Tuesday and there is now good agreement of
widespread rain for southern Alaska Tuesday and Wednesday. On
Wednesday another low approaches the western Aleutians from the
North Pacific with it expected to stay south of the Aleutians
through Thursday while it tracks to the east. Thursday night the
models struggle with what to do with this system, lowering
confidence heading towards the weekend. Because of this the
ensembles were preferred by the end of the week.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...Gale Warning: 120 131 132 138 150 155 160 177 178
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...AP
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...SEB
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...AH
MARINE/LONG TERM...DK