Gale Warning 407, NWS Anchorage, AK

111 
FZAK62 PAFC 101158
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
358 AM AKDT Tue Sep 10 2019

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-110130-
358 AM AKDT Tue Sep 10 2019
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A front associated with a 979 mb low in the western Bering moves
into the eastern Bering Tue afternoon. The associated low center 
moves to 59N 179W at 963 mb by Thu morning.

$$

PKZ411-110130-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
358 AM AKDT Tue Sep 10 2019

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 25 to 35 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 to 30 kt increasing to 25 to 40 kt after
midnight. Seas 12 to 16 ft. Rain.
.WED...W wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft.
.THU...NW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 10 to 17 ft.
.FRI...W wind up to 20 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.SAT...N wind up to 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ412-110130-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
358 AM AKDT Tue Sep 10 2019

...GALE WARNING TODAY AND WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 20 to 35 kt becoming 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas
7 to 12 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 12 ft. Rain.
.WED...SW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 10 to 17 ft. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 12 to 18 ft.
.THU...W wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft.
.FRI...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.SAT...E wind up to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft.

$$

PKZ413-110130-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
358 AM AKDT Tue Sep 10 2019

...GALE WARNING TODAY AND WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 20 to 35 kt becoming 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas
7 to 12 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt becoming SW after midnight. Seas 10 to
13 ft. Rain.
.WED...SW wind 30 to 40 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 30 to 40 kt. Seas 15 to 20 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...SW wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft.
.SAT...S wind up to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 8 ft.

$$

PKZ414-110130-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
358 AM AKDT Tue Sep 10 2019

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind up to 15 kt becoming S 15 to 30 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 3 to 6 ft. Patchy fog.
.TONIGHT...S wind 15 to 30 kt increasing to 25 to 35 kt after
midnight. Seas 6 to 11 ft. Rain.
.WED...SW wind 30 to 40 kt. Seas 11 to 15 ft. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 10 to 17 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...W wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft.
.SAT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft.

$$

933 
FZAK62 PAFC 102306
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
306 PM AKDT Tue Sep 10 2019

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-111345-
306 PM AKDT Tue Sep 10 2019
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A front associated with a 975 mb Kamchatka low moves from the
central Bering into the eastern Bering Wed night with impacts to
the entire Aleutians by Wed night. The 969 mb parent low at 58N 
177E Wed morning moves to 62N 178W at 965 mb Wed afternoon then
moves to 61N 171W at 974 mb by Thu afternoon.

$$

PKZ411-111345-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
306 PM AKDT Tue Sep 10 2019

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 to 30 kt increasing to 25 to 40 kt after
midnight. Seas 11 to 15 ft.
.WED...W wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 20 to 35 kt becoming 30 kt after midnight.
Seas 10 to 18 ft.
.THU...NW wind 25 to 35 kt. Seas 14 to 18 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 10 to 15 ft.
.FRI...E wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.SAT...N wind up to 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN...W wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 8 ft.

$$

PKZ412-111345-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
306 PM AKDT Tue Sep 10 2019

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 12 ft. Rain.
.WED...SW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 11 to 18 ft. Rain.
.THU...W wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 14 to 22 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 25 to 35 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft.
.FRI...W wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.SAT...E wind up to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft.
.SUN...W wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft.

$$

PKZ413-111345-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
306 PM AKDT Tue Sep 10 2019

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 to 13 ft. Rain.
.WED...SW wind 30 to 40 kt. Seas 13 to 19 ft.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 30 to 40 kt. Seas 16 to 20 ft.
.THU...W wind 30 to 40 kt. Seas 16 to 25 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 15 to 23 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.SAT...S wind up to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 8 ft.
.SUN...W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft.

$$

PKZ414-111345-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
306 PM AKDT Tue Sep 10 2019

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 15 to 30 kt increasing to 25 to 35 kt after
midnight. Seas 6 to 11 ft. Rain.
.WED...SW wind 30 to 40 kt. Seas 11 to 15 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 11 to 18 ft. Rain showers.
.THU...SW wind 25 to 35 kt. Seas 14 to 22 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 25 to 35 kt. Seas 15 to 23 ft.
.FRI...W wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft.
.SAT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft.
.SUN...W wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft.

$$

769 
FZAK62 PAFC 111159
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
359 AM AKDT Wed Sep 11 2019

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-120115-
359 AM AKDT Wed Sep 11 2019
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 970 mb low at 57N 177E moves to 58N 176W at 969 mb Thu morning 
and then moves to 59N 164W at 982 mb by Fri morning. A new front
approaches the Western Aleutians Fri morning.

$$

PKZ411-120115-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
359 AM AKDT Wed Sep 11 2019

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 25 to 35 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft.
.THU...NW wind 25 to 35 kt. Seas 14 to 19 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 10 to 15 ft.
.FRI...E wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.SAT...N wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 9 ft.
.SUN...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 to 10 ft.

$$

PKZ412-120115-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
359 AM AKDT Wed Sep 11 2019

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...W wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 13 to 19 ft. Rain.
.THU...W wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft.
.FRI...W wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.SAT...SE wind up to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 7 ft.
.SUN...W wind 20 kt. Seas 9 to 13 ft.

$$

PKZ413-120115-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
359 AM AKDT Wed Sep 11 2019

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 14 to 21 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 40 kt. Seas 17 to 21 ft.
.THU...W wind 30 to 40 kt. Seas 16 to 25 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 15 to 23 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.SUN...W wind 25 kt. Seas 9 to 13 ft.

$$

PKZ414-120115-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
359 AM AKDT Wed Sep 11 2019

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 30 to 40 kt. Seas 11 to 14 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft. Rain.
.THU...SW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 15 to 23 ft.
.FRI...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft.
.SAT...S wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 8 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 11 to 15 ft.

$$

011 
FZAK62 PAFC 112258
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
258 PM AKDT Wed Sep 11 2019

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-121300-
258 PM AKDT Wed Sep 11 2019
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 967 mb low at 61N 179W moves to 58N 167W at 975 mb Thu afternoon 
and then to 58N 159W at 992 mb by Fri afternoon.

$$

PKZ411-121300-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
258 PM AKDT Wed Sep 11 2019

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft.
.THU...NW wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 14 to 20 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 20 to 30 kt diminishing to 10 to 25 kt after
midnight. Seas 10 to 16 ft.
.FRI...NW wind up to 20 kt. Seas 7 to 11 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 5 to 9 ft.
.SAT...N wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 9 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 to 10 ft.

$$

PKZ412-121300-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
258 PM AKDT Wed Sep 11 2019

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft. Rain.
.THU...W wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 14 to 22 ft. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 25 to 35 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft.
.FRI...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind up to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft.
.SAT...SE wind up to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 7 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...W wind 20 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.

$$

PKZ413-121300-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
258 PM AKDT Wed Sep 11 2019

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 40 kt. Seas 17 to 23 ft. Rain.
.THU...W wind 30 to 40 kt. Seas 17 to 25 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 15 to 23 ft.
.FRI...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 15 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft.
.SAT...S wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...W wind 25 kt. Seas 9 to 13 ft.

$$

PKZ414-121300-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
258 PM AKDT Wed Sep 11 2019

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft. Rain.
.THU...SW wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 14 to 22 ft. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 15 to 23 ft.
.FRI...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.SAT...S wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 8 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...W wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 9 to 15 ft.

$$

988 
FZAK62 PAFC 121204
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
404 AM AKDT Thu Sep 12 2019

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-130045-
404 AM AKDT Thu Sep 12 2019
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 969 mb low at 58N 174W moves to 59N 165W at 983 mb Fri morning
before moving ashore Fri afternoon. A front associated with a 
Kamchatka low enters the western Aleutians Fri morning. The low 
center moves to 51N 172E at 995 mb by Sat morning.

$$

PKZ411-130045-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
404 AM AKDT Thu Sep 12 2019

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 14 to 20 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 to 30 kt diminishing to 10 to 25 kt after
midnight. Seas 11 to 15 ft.
.FRI...NW wind up to 20 kt becoming E in the afternoon. Seas 7 to
12 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 9 ft.
.SAT...N wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 9 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft.

$$

PKZ412-130045-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
404 AM AKDT Thu Sep 12 2019

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 14 to 22 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 13 to 18 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 15 to 30 kt diminishing to up to 20 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 9 to 16 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind up to 15 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft.
.SAT...S wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...W wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.

$$

PKZ413-130045-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
404 AM AKDT Thu Sep 12 2019

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W wind 30 to 40 kt. Seas 16 to 25 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 15 to 23 ft.
.FRI...W wind 15 to 30 kt becoming SW up to 20 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 9 to 17 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.SAT THROUGH MON...W wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.

$$

PKZ414-130045-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
404 AM AKDT Thu Sep 12 2019

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 16 to 24 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...W wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 14 to 22 ft.
.FRI...W wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.SAT THROUGH MON...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.

$$

904 
FZAK62 PAFC 122334
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
334 PM AKDT Thu Sep 12 2019

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-131400-
334 PM AKDT Thu Sep 12 2019
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 970 mb low at 59N 167W moves inland over Southwest Alaska Fri 
morning. A 995 mb north Pacific low enters the western Aleutians 
Fri night and moves to 54N 175E at 997 mb Sat afternoon.

$$

PKZ411-131400-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
334 PM AKDT Thu Sep 12 2019

.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 to 30 kt diminishing to 10 to 25 kt after
midnight. Seas 11 to 15 ft.
.FRI...NW wind up to 20 kt becoming E in the afternoon. Seas 7 to
12 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft.
.SAT...SE wind up to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 9 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind up to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 9 ft.
.SUN...W wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft.

$$

PKZ412-131400-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
334 PM AKDT Thu Sep 12 2019

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 13 to 18 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 15 to 25 kt becoming W up to 15 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 9 to 16 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind up to 10 kt becoming S after midnight. Seas
7 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...S wind up to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 8 ft.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...NW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft.

$$

PKZ413-131400-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
334 PM AKDT Thu Sep 12 2019

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 15 to 23 ft.
.FRI...W wind 15 to 30 kt becoming SW up to 20 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 9 to 17 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT...S wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...W wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.

$$

PKZ414-131400-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
334 PM AKDT Thu Sep 12 2019

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 14 to 22 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 7 to 11 ft.
.SAT...S wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...W wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.

$$

992 
FZAK62 PAFC 131145
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
345 AM AKDT Fri Sep 13 2019

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-140100-
345 AM AKDT Fri Sep 13 2019
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 985 mb low at 58N 163W moves across the Alaska Peninsula Fri
afternoon. A 982 mb low at 48N 164E moves to 51N 171E at 995 mb
Sat morning and then moves to 59N 174W at 996 mb by Sun morning.

$$

PKZ411-140100-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
345 AM AKDT Fri Sep 13 2019

.TODAY...NW wind up to 20 kt becoming E in the afternoon. Seas 7
to 12 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 8 ft.
.SAT...E wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 9 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind up to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 9 ft.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...W wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 9 ft.

$$

PKZ412-140100-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
345 AM AKDT Fri Sep 13 2019

.TODAY...NW wind 15 to 25 kt becoming W up to 15 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 9 to 16 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind up to 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind up to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...NW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft.

$$

PKZ413-140100-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
345 AM AKDT Fri Sep 13 2019

.TODAY...W wind 15 to 30 kt becoming SW up to 20 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 9 to 17 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...W wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.

$$

PKZ414-140100-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
345 AM AKDT Fri Sep 13 2019

.TODAY...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 7 to 11 ft.
.SAT...S wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
851 AM AKDT Mon Sep 9 2019

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

In the upper levels, an upper level high is currently over the
Yukon. An upper level trough is over the eastern Bering. Shortwave
ridging associated with the high is building westward over the
Copper River Basin. Meanwhile an upper level disturbance and
negatively tilted trough is moving northeastward with time over
Southwest Alaska. The approach of these two features towards each
other has lead to rain developing across Anchorage and the Mat-Su
tonight as deformation banding formed. For the area in advance of
the Southwest Alaska trough, periods of rain have developed over
much of the Kuskokwim Delta, becoming more scattered over Bristol Bay.

Temperatures across most of the area are generally in the upper
40s to mid 50s most everywhere across mainland Southern Alaska.
The Copper River Basin is a notable exception, where clear skies
are allowing temperatures to fall into the 30s. Patchy fog and
lower ceilings are also present, as winds largely remain light.
Breezy conditions are impacting Bristol Bay, with winds of 15 to
25 mph occurring around that area.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

The models remain in very good agreement through the short-term.
All are handling the development of the rain over Southwest
Alaska, the deformation band and associated rain over
Southcentral, and have the general weather pattern well.
Disagreements among the models in the long-term arise by Thursday,
mostly in regard to the track and strength of the Bering low. It
is important to remember the origins of the low, which by Thursday
will be a conglomeration of the moisture from two former typhoons,
Lingling and Faxai. The models have historically been very poor
at handling the transition of typhoons into extratropical lows. So
taking the moisture and dynamics of an already strong
extratropical low that was once a typhoon and infuse the moisture
from a second, it becomes very understandable that there can be
large model discrepancies. With that said, there are areas of
general agreement, such as the low stalling over the northern
Bering, a strong leading front, and good timing on the associated
rainfall, even if storm track and amount of rainfall are still
points of disagreement. Thus, forecast confidence is at least
average, even if the details still need to be worked out.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC... Rain shower activity ongoing across Anchorage early this
morning is causing MVFR ceilings, with brief periods to IFR
levels. By late morning, the shower activity should diminish,
leaving cloud cover behind for the rest of the day. More shower
activity will move in by late afternoon with the approach of
another slow moving wave. More MVFR to IFR ceilings are possible
again overnight tonight along with continued showers and patchy
fog.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2...Mon and
Tue)...
The week will start much like the weekend ended...mostly cloudy
with periods of rain. A weak deformation zone is stretching out
from the Turnagain Arm up through the Susitna Valley. Along this
boundary, the radar has been active all night with on and off
periods of light rain. This will continue through the morning
hours before finally shifting off to the east and dissipating
this afternoon. The Copper River Basin continues to remain the dry
spot across Southern AK. Some fog is starting to creep up the
Copper River Valley and should increase through the early morning
hours. It will burn off by this afternoon allowing for plenty of
sunshine out there once again today.

A broad upper-level trough will move from SW AK over the Alaska
Range today into Tue. While the low clouds and steady rain should
abate later today, they will be quickly replaced by widespread
rain showers. Upper-level energy will start to consolidate this
evening around the Cook Inlet. This coupled with weak south to
southwest flow will lead to likely PoPs once again as we head
overnight into Tue. The winds across Turnagain Arm will also
respond to this energy starting to becoming gusty from the
southeast. As the trough slides to the east, most of the area
will remain in a cloudy and showery pattern. The exception will be
the Copper River Basin. The trough does not quite make enough
eastward progress to bring widespread rain or showers to the
basin. However, cloud cover should increase helping to keep
temperatures a bit cooler until a stronger system starts to move
north in the Gulf of AK late Tue into Wed. While models are still
struggling in how to handle this system, it does look to push some
steady rain and gusty east to southeast winds at least into the
North Gulf Coast by late Tue/Wed.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...The general wet pattern with good wetting rain
chances and high afternoon humidities will persist to start the
week. The only place featuring any fire weather concerns really is
the Copper River Basin. High temperatures out there will continue
to hover in the mid to upper 60s with afternoon RH values around
40%. There will be some breezy winds out of the Copper River Basin
this afternoon. In general though, the synoptic pattern is
shifting to much more like Fall with cooler and wetter conditions.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

Scattered showers continue this morning over the Kuskokwim Delta,
lower Kuskokwim Valley and Bristol Bay areas as a shortwave
rotates northward around a weakening low in the northern Bering.
Showers will diminish in coverage somewhat this afternoon, but not
clear up completely as cold air aloft will still support some
instability. Brief ridging will develop over the Bering Sea Tuesday,
thus expect quieter conditions over the Southwest mainland, and
cloud cover should diminish a skosh. A strong front with a deep
subtropical fetch will arrive Wednesday, bringing heavy
precipitation and strong southwest winds particularly along the west
coast. The prolonged southwesterly winds across the Bering south of
the associated low may bring about storm surge and/or coastal
erosion issues. The impacts will be dependent on the overall track
of the low which is uncertain at this time... this time frame will
continue to be monitored and updated in the next few forecast
packages.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3)...

Scattered showers over the Bering Sea are diminishing as a ridge
builds in from the western Bering. Generally benign conditions are
expected today over the Bering and Aleutians. Tuesday, a gale
force low will approach the western Bering, with its leading front
making it into the central Bering by mid-day. Gales will spread to
wide swaths of the Bering and parts of the Aleutians by Wednesday,
as the low progresses eastward. Heavy precipitation and strong
southerly winds are likely, given the southern extent of the front
and subtropical moisture draw. Along the low, high wind waves are
likely, on top of heavy swell...wave heights could exceed 20 ft in
the heaviest areas.

&&

.MARINE (Days 3 through 5/Wednesday through Friday)...
Confidence is high that a gale force low will track eastward
across the northern Bering Sea Wednesday through Friday. This will
lead to widespread gale force westerlies across the southern
Bering Sea and much of the coastal waters along the Aleutians and
all the way to Southwest Alaska. There is a chance for a small
area of storm force winds along the west coast of Alaska Wednesday
and possibly just south of the low center over the Bering Sea
offshore, but these winds would be brief and over a fairly small
area. The long fetch of westerly winds across the southern Bering
Sea will effectively build up the seas through this time period,
reaching a range of around 15 to 20 ft.

The western Gulf and nearby coastal waters will be quiet until
the front out ahead of the Bering low arrives on Thursday. The
front will be in a weakening state as it arrives and small craft
advisory winds are likely. However, there is a possibility a new
low may form along the front and strengthen winds. Thus, there is
some potential for gale force winds Thursday into Friday.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7/Thursday through Sunday)...
The beginning of the extended period will start out wet and windy
as we deal with the remnants of multiple typhoons. Starting
Thursday, the extra-tropical low which formed from Typhoon
Lingling will be sitting over the northern Bering Sea, with a
strong north-south oriented front pushing onshore across Southwest
Alaska. By this time, moisture from a second Typhoon (Faxai) will
be feeding into the front side of the trough and headed to
Southwest Alaska. Thus, expect a ton of available moisture in the
atmosphere. When you add dynamic lift to the equation, expect
widespread heavy rain.

The heavy rain will spread from Southwest Alaska on Thursday to
Southcentral Alaska and the Gulf Thursday night and Friday. There
will be strong southeasterly flow ahead of the front, which
oftentimes produces downslope drying on the west side of mountain
ranges. However, in this case flow will quickly veer to south to
southwest as you head up in the atmosphere. When you factor in the
high amounts of moisture and intensity of the rainfall, downslope
flow will be a minor player with this storm and would expect all
of Southwest and Southcentral Alaska will see at least moderate
rainfall out of this. While it has been wet of late, we remain
well below normal for rainfall this time of year. Thus, do not
expect flooding will be a big threat.

The threat storm surge induced erosion and flooding along the
Southwest Alaska coast will be something we'll continue to watch
Thursday through Friday. The Bering low will track eastward to
Southwest Alaska with multiple days of a long fetch of westerly
winds across the southern Bering Sea and into Southwest Alaska -
all very favorable for producing storm surge.

By Saturday, conditions will become more showery over the
Southern mainland as the remnants of the Bering Low and upper
trough settle overhead. Then expect a drying trend as we head
through the weekend and this all begins to exit eastward.

Beyond this initial system, models diverge significantly and
forecast confidence is low. With upper level flow likely to remain
progressive, would expect another storm to move into the Bering
Sea by next weekend. All indications are the west Pacific tropics
will remain active, as is common this time of year. So the threat
of recurving tropical systems affecting Alaska will likely
continue.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...Gale Warning: 178 185 411 412.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...JPW
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...MO
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...MM
MARINE/LONG TERM...SB