Alert archive / Alaska / Gale Warnings in 2019

Gale Warning 375, NWS Anchorage, AK

August 13, 2019

NWS Anchorage, AK issued this gale warning at Aug 13, 2019, 3:00 AM AKDT. It was in force for 61 hr. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued
Aug 13, 2019, 3:00 AM AKDT (11:00 UTC)
Expired
Aug 15, 2019, 3:34 PM AKDT
In force
61 hr
Issued by
NWS Anchorage, AK

The text

As transmitted.

601 
FZAK62 PAFC 131100
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
300 AM AKDT Tue Aug 13 2019

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-140100-
300 AM AKDT Tue Aug 13 2019
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 998 mb low at 40N 175E moves to 48N 177E at 995 mb Wed morning
and then moves to 51N 176E at 998 mb before dissipating Wed
afternoon. A 990 mb low at 44N 174E Wed night moves to 47N 173E at
989 mb by Thu morning.

$$

PKZ411-140100-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
300 AM AKDT Tue Aug 13 2019

.TODAY...S wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft. Patchy fog.
.TONIGHT...SE wind up to 15 kt becoming E 10 to 25 kt after
midnight. Seas 6 ft. Patchy fog. Rain.
.WED...NE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft. Patchy fog. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 11 ft.
.THU THROUGH SAT...E wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.

$$

PKZ412-140100-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
300 AM AKDT Tue Aug 13 2019

.TODAY...SW wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Patchy fog.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Patchy fog. Rain.
.WED...SE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft. Patchy fog. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.THU THROUGH SAT...E wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.

$$

PKZ413-140100-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
300 AM AKDT Tue Aug 13 2019

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind up to 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. Patchy fog.
.TONIGHT...E wind 10 to 25 kt becoming SE 20 to 30 kt after
midnight. Seas 5 to 8 ft. Patchy fog.
.WED...SE wind 20 to 30 kt becoming S 35 kt in the afternoon. Seas
8 to 13 ft. Patchy fog.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.THU THROUGH SAT...E wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.

$$

PKZ414-140100-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
300 AM AKDT Tue Aug 13 2019

.TODAY...SW wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Patchy fog.
.TONIGHT...S wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft. Patchy fog.
.WED...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 5 to 9 ft. Patchy fog.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.THU...S wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft.
.FRI...SE wind up to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$
5 follow-up statements
629 
FZAK62 PAFC 132336
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
336 PM AKDT Tue Aug 13 2019

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-141245-
336 PM AKDT Tue Aug 13 2019
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A 995 mb low at 44N 177E moves to 52N 171E at 986 mb for Thu
afternoon. Its front sweeps the Bering by Thu afternoon. High 
pressure lingers over the Alaska Peninsula and Bristol Bay through
Thu afternoon.

$$

PKZ411-141245-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
336 PM AKDT Tue Aug 13 2019

.TONIGHT...SE wind up to 15 kt becoming E 10 to 25 kt after
midnight. Seas 6 ft. Patchy fog. Rain.
.WED...NE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft. Patchy fog. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 15 to 30 kt diminishing to 10 to 20 kt after
midnight. Seas 7 to 11 ft. Patchy fog.
.THU...E wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 13 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 10 to 14 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...E wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.

$$

PKZ412-141245-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
336 PM AKDT Tue Aug 13 2019

.TONIGHT...SE wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Patchy fog. Rain.
.WED...SE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft. Patchy fog. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft. Patchy fog.
.THU...SE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 8 to 11 ft.
.THU NIGHT...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...NE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.

$$

PKZ413-141245-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
336 PM AKDT Tue Aug 13 2019

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...E wind 10 to 25 kt becoming SE 20 to 30 kt after
midnight. Seas 5 to 8 ft. Patchy fog.
.WED...SE wind 20 to 30 kt becoming S 35 kt in the afternoon. Seas
8 to 13 ft. Patchy fog.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft. Patchy fog.
.THU...SE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 10 to 13 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 25 to 35 kt. Seas 10 to 15 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...E wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.

$$

PKZ414-141245-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
336 PM AKDT Tue Aug 13 2019

.TONIGHT...S wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft. Patchy fog.
.WED...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 5 to 9 ft. Patchy fog.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft. Patchy fog.
.THU...S wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 10 ft.
.THU NIGHT...S wind up to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 8 ft.
.FRI...SE wind up to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$
689 
FZAK62 PAFC 141102
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
302 AM AKDT Wed Aug 14 2019

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-150215-
302 AM AKDT Wed Aug 14 2019
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 990 mb low at 49N 176E moves to 51N 170E at 985 mb Thu morning
and then moves to 54N 166E at 993 mb by Fri morning.

$$

PKZ411-150215-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
302 AM AKDT Wed Aug 14 2019

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft. Patchy fog. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft. Patchy fog.
.THU...SE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft. Patchy fog. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 11 to 15 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...E wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.

$$

PKZ412-150215-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
302 AM AKDT Wed Aug 14 2019

.TODAY...SE wind 10 to 25 kt increasing to 20 to 30 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 6 to 11 ft. Patchy fog. Rain.
.TONIGHT...S wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft. Patchy fog.
.THU...S wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. Patchy fog.
.THU NIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 10 to 14 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.SAT...E wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ413-150215-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
302 AM AKDT Wed Aug 14 2019

...GALE WARNING TODAY AND THURSDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 25 to 35 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft. Patchy fog.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft. Patchy fog.
.THU...SE wind 25 to 35 kt. Seas 10 to 15 ft. Patchy fog.
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 25 to 35 kt. Seas 11 to 16 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...NE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.

$$

PKZ414-150215-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
302 AM AKDT Wed Aug 14 2019

.TODAY...S wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 8 ft. Patchy fog.
.TONIGHT...S wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 9 ft. Patchy fog.
.THU...S wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 9 ft. Patchy fog.
.THU NIGHT...S wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 9 ft.
.FRI...S wind up to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 8 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NE wind up to 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$
398 
FZAK62 PAFC 142342
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
342 PM AKDT Wed Aug 14 2019

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-151330-
342 PM AKDT Wed Aug 14 2019
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 983 mb low at 50N 173E moves to 53N 164E at 995 mb by Fri 
afternoon. Its front sweeps across the Bering through Fri 
afternoon. High pressure lingers over the southeast Bering and 
Bristol Bay for Fri afternoon.

$$

PKZ411-151330-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
342 PM AKDT Wed Aug 14 2019

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft. Patchy fog.
.THU...SE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 15 ft. Patchy fog. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 11 to 15 ft. Patchy fog.
.FRI...SE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 10 to 13 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 11 ft.
.SAT THROUGH MON...NE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.

$$

PKZ412-151330-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
342 PM AKDT Wed Aug 14 2019

.TONIGHT...S wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft. Patchy fog.
.THU...S wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. Patchy fog.
.THU NIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 10 to 14 ft. Patchy fog.
.FRI...S wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 8 to 12 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 11 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ413-151330-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
342 PM AKDT Wed Aug 14 2019

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft. Patchy fog.
.THU...SE wind 25 to 35 kt. Seas 10 to 15 ft. Patchy fog.
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 10 to 15 ft. Patchy fog. Rain.
.FRI...SE wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.SAT THROUGH MON...E wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.

$$

PKZ414-151330-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
342 PM AKDT Wed Aug 14 2019

.TONIGHT...S wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 9 ft. Patchy fog.
.THU...S wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 9 ft. Patchy fog.
.THU NIGHT...S wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 9 ft. Patchy fog.
.FRI...S wind up to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 8 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind up to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 7 ft.
.SAT THROUGH MON...NE wind up to 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$
848 
FZAK62 PAFC 151129
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
329 AM AKDT Thu Aug 15 2019

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-160045-
329 AM AKDT Thu Aug 15 2019
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 982 mb low at 49N 169E moves to 52N 166E at 991 mb Fri morning.
It's associated front remains over the central Bering through Sat
morning.

$$

PKZ411-160045-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
329 AM AKDT Thu Aug 15 2019

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 10 to 15 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 12 to 15 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 9 to 13 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 8 to 11 ft.
.SAT THROUGH MON...NE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.

$$

PKZ412-160045-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
329 AM AKDT Thu Aug 15 2019

.TODAY...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. Patchy fog. Rain.
.TONIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 10 to 14 ft. Patchy fog.
.FRI...S wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 9 to 13 ft. Patchy fog.
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 10 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NE wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 8 ft.

$$

PKZ413-160045-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
329 AM AKDT Thu Aug 15 2019

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 25 to 35 kt. Seas 10 to 15 ft. Patchy fog. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 10 to 15 ft. Patchy fog. Rain.
.FRI...SE wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft. Patchy fog. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...E wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft.

$$

PKZ414-160045-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
329 AM AKDT Thu Aug 15 2019

.TODAY...S wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 9 ft. Patchy fog.
.TONIGHT...S wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 9 ft. Patchy fog.
.FRI...S wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 8 ft. Patchy fog.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind up to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 6 ft.
.SAT THROUGH MON...NE wind up to 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$
397 
FZAK62 PAFC 152334
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
334 PM AKDT Thu Aug 15 2019

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-161330-
334 PM AKDT Thu Aug 15 2019
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 983 mb low at 51N 170E moves into southern Kamchatka at 995 mb by 
Sat afternoon. Its front extends across the Bering into western 
Alaska through Sat afternoon. High pressure persists over the 
southeastern Bering through Sat afternoon.

$$

PKZ411-161330-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
334 PM AKDT Thu Aug 15 2019

.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 12 to 15 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 9 to 13 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 8 to 11 ft. Rain.
.SAT...SE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 12 ft.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...NE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.

$$

PKZ412-161330-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
334 PM AKDT Thu Aug 15 2019

.TONIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 10 to 14 ft. Patchy fog.
.FRI...S wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 9 to 13 ft. Patchy fog.
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 10 ft. Patchy fog.
.SAT...SE wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 10 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...E wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 9 ft.

$$

PKZ413-161330-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
334 PM AKDT Thu Aug 15 2019

.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 10 to 15 ft. Patchy fog. Rain.
.FRI...SE wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft. Patchy fog. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft. Patchy fog.
.SAT...SE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...E wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.

$$

PKZ414-161330-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
334 PM AKDT Thu Aug 15 2019

.TONIGHT...S wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 9 ft. Patchy fog.
.FRI...S wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 8 ft. Patchy fog.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind up to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 6 ft. Patchy fog.
.SAT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind up to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NE wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...E wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this gale warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Anchorage, AK wrote its last area forecast discussion before this gale warning went out at Aug 12, 4:41 PM AKDT, 10 hours 19 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Aug 12, 4:41 PM AKDT, 10 hours 19 minutes before
Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
441 PM AKDT Mon Aug 12 2019

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
A strong upper level ridge remains over Southcentral Alaska today
with Southwest mainland Alaska under southwest flow aloft on the
other side of the ridge axis. This pattern is bringing in the
areas of rain to Southwest mainland Alaska with just high clouds
moving over the ridge in Southcentral. This ridge is strong enough
to suppress convection across Southcentral Alaska.

At the surface the ridge is over the Gulf of Alaska and
stretching to the south of the Alaska Peninsula. The main low in
Eastern Russia has a front stretching across the Bering Strait and
then southward over the Bering Sea. A wave along this front can
be prominently seen on IR satellite near Adak.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
Models remain in good agreement through the middle of the week and
not much needs to be mentioned for that time period. What is quite
notable is for the end of the week where there has been a good
amount of uncertainty in the models. Overall we have been leaning
toward the ECMWF solution which maintains the strong ridge over
the mainland part of the state over the GFS solution which shows a
strong trough digging southward near the Alcan border on Friday
and Saturday. Part of the reasoning has been the stability of the
ECMWF and the way the GFS has tied to break down the ridges too
fast this summer. With all that said, the 12Z ECMWF run did a
major jump toward the GFS solution and shows a 500 mb low over
Northwest Alaska Thursday night sweeping to the northeast Gulf of
Alaska by Friday night. This would drop upper level temperatures
significantly and surface temperatures will follow. This is the
first run of late where the models are showing similar solutions
and more runs will be needed to confirm this forecast shift.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...VFR conditions will persist. Winds are expected increase as
they shift to the south-southeast late this evening and persist
through tomorrow.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...
(Tonight through Thursday evening)

The main forecast challenges were afternoon high temperatures and
our potential for some much needed rainfall. Speaking of those
temperatures, Ted Stevens International Airport has climbed to 77
degrees this afternoon, tying the record from 2005. We may climb
another degree or two before leveling off and beginning our
descent. These warm temperatures look to continue, as the models
have decreased the 700 mb RH for the next few days, especially for
Tuesday night and wednesday. This will allow for more breaks in
the cloud cover to develop, boosting afternoon highs. Thursday is
where we may have to really boost them some more, as 850 mb temps
are progged to be 12 deg. C, which is a degree C above today, when
we hit 77. At that time, projected RH fields indicate scattered
cloud cover at best. Overnight lows look to remain relatively
unchanged, compared to what has been observed the last few days.

As for the precipitation, a series of disturbances will pass by to
our north over the next 48 hours. The first of which will send a
weak front southward, reaching the north central portions of the
Matanuska Valley and Copper Basin, before frontolysis commences
(the weakening/dissolving of a front). This combined with
southwest winds just above the surface should provide enough
surface convergence for some showers to develop, reaching as far
south as a Kenai to coastal Gulf line for Tuesday into Wednesday.
These rainfall chances fall by the wayside for Thursday, with dry
weather expected for most locations, with the exception being
near the Alaska Range.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3/Monday
evening through Thursday)...

A frontal system continues its slow push across Southwest
Alaska. It will continue to move slowly and drag warm, moist air
behind it. So expect it to bring rain, cloud cover, and cooler
temperatures to the area for the next couple days. Closely following
this system is another low that will skirt the southwest coast
Wednesday into Thursday. This low will take a more northerly track
so it will only provide a chance of precipitation for all except
the Yukon Delta. The more northerly track will also provide a
chance for interior areas of southwest AK to warm and dry some.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3/Monday
evening through Thursday)...

A frontal system is entering the central Bering Sea from the south,
just as the frontal system in the eastern Bering Sea moves over
Southwest AK. This quick succession of systems that are tied together
means continued southerly winds, low level clouds, fog, and rain
for the Bering Sea and Aleutians. Tuesday night into Wednesday a
strong system enters the Bering, again from the south. Gale force
winds will also accompany this system as well as more rain. This
system takes a more northerly track and enters through the western
Aleutians, so the western and central Bering will see most of the
action later in the week.

&&

.MARINE (Days 3 through 5)...

With upper-level ridging remaining over the Gulf through midweek,
expect west-southwesterly winds in the 20 to 25 knot range for
Shelikof Strait, southern Cook Inlet and across the Barren
Islands. Offshore flow then increases Thursday and lingers into
Saturday with areas of northwesterly gales likely across the
Barren Islands, out of terrain gaps, and in other favored
offshore flow locations.

For the Bering and Aleutians, a ridge building across the eastern
Aleutians and Bering will produce gusty offshore winds across the
channeled bays of the southern AKPEN Thursday evening through
Saturday. Low pressure south of Shemya will produce southeasterly
gales along a stalled front draped across the western and central
Aleutians Thursday and Friday. Winds will weaken late Friday into
Saturday but remain at small-craft advisory levels.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...

By Thursday evening, a broad upper-level ridge stretching from
the eastern Aleutians to the Alaska Panhandle begins to weaken
with the axis shifting to the south and west. This is in response
to a vigorous upper-level shortwave dropping southeast from the
Chukchi Sea toward the Yukon. This shortwave elongates as it moves
into the Yukon on Saturday, introducing a northerly cyclonic flow
across the state as the ridge retreats over the Bering. At the
surface, the upper-level dynamics will result in the movement of a
frontal system across the state with the redevelopment of a
surface low over the eastern Gulf sometime late Friday or
Saturday. The bulk of the moisture with this system will remain
north of Southcentral due to upslope flow along the Alaska Range;
however, areas of light rain showers remain possible over the
mountains and within the Copper River Basin through late Friday as
the system passes. Another area of focus will be the likely
development of stronger offshore winds through the favored
channeled areas across coastal Southcentral in response to the
development of low pressure in the Gulf. There is still quite a
bit of uncertainty with timing and intensity with this feature
(see aforementioned model discussion), but these winds are
expected to increase late Friday and linger through the weekend.
Finally, temperatures are also expected trend cooler, becoming
more seasonal through the weekend, as the northerly flow advects
in colder air, dropping temperatures aloft by around 5C.

Farther west, the retreating ridge will keep conditions rather
quiet and slightly cooler over Southwest Alaska and the eastern
half of the Bering through the weekend as a stalled frontal
boundary allows southerly winds and precipitation to persist
across the central and western Aleutians.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...EZ
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...PD
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...BB
MARINE/LONG TERM...TM

The office that day

Everything else NWS Anchorage, AK issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Aug 13, 3:00 AM AKDTGale WarningAFC5 days
Aug 13, 3:00 AM AKDTSmall Craft AdvisoryAFC3 days
Aug 13, 3:04 AM AKDTSmall Craft AdvisoryAFC49 hr
Aug 13, 3:40 PM AKDTSmall Craft AdvisoryAFC60 hr
Aug 13, 3:49 PM AKDTSmall Craft AdvisoryAFC24 hr

Nearby

Gale Warnings in Alaska, 2019Every gale warning in 2019

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text.