Gale Warning 367, NWS Anchorage, AK

862 
FZAK52 PAFC 202352
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
352 PM AKDT Sat Jul 20 2019

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-211230-
352 PM AKDT Sat Jul 20 2019
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A frontal boundary in the western Bering associated with a 
Siberian low enters the central Bering by Sun afternoon then 
dissipates by Mon afternoon. A 1011 mb north Pacific low 260 nm
south of Adak Sun morning moves to 150 nm south of Adak at 1009 
mb Sun afternoon then moves to 130 nm south of Dutch Harbor at 
1007 mb by Mon afternoon.

$$

PKZ150-211230-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
352 PM AKDT Sat Jul 20 2019

.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...S wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ155-211230-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
352 PM AKDT Sat Jul 20 2019

.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Patchy fog.
.SUN...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. Patchy fog.
.SUN NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. Patchy fog.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ160-211230-
Bristol Bay-
352 PM AKDT Sat Jul 20 2019

.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Patchy fog.
.SUN...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Patchy fog.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. Patchy fog.
.MON...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE THROUGH THU...W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ165-211230-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
352 PM AKDT Sat Jul 20 2019

.TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Patchy fog.
.SUN...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft. Patchy fog.
.SUN NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. Patchy fog.
.MON...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...S wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU...W wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ170-211230-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
352 PM AKDT Sat Jul 20 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft. Patchy fog.
.SUN...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming SE 15 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 3 ft. Patchy fog.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Patchy fog.
.MON...E wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...N wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ171-211230-
Unalaska Bay-
352 PM AKDT Sat Jul 20 2019

.TONIGHT...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. Patchy fog.
.SUN...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming SE 15 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 2 ft. Patchy fog.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Patchy fog.
.MON...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ172-211230-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
352 PM AKDT Sat Jul 20 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. Patchy fog.
.SUN...Variable wind less than 10 kt, except SE wind 15kt W of Dutch
Harbor. Seas 3 ft. Patchy fog.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Patchy fog.
.MON...E wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE...N wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ173-211230-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
352 PM AKDT Sat Jul 20 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. Patchy fog.
.SUN...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Patchy fog.
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Patchy fog. Rain.
.MON...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...W wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ174-211230-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
352 PM AKDT Sat Jul 20 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. Patchy fog.
.SUN...E wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Patchy fog. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Patchy fog. Rain.
.MON...S wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...W wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ175-211230-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
352 PM AKDT Sat Jul 20 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Patchy fog.
.SUN...E wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Patchy fog.
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Patchy fog.
.MON...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...W wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ176-211230-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
352 PM AKDT Sat Jul 20 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Patchy fog.
.SUN...E wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. Patchy fog. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. Patchy fog.
.MON...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE...W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ177-211230-
Adak to Kiska-
352 PM AKDT Sat Jul 20 2019

.TONIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. Patchy fog.
.SUN...E wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. Patchy fog.
.SUN NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Patchy fog.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE THROUGH THU...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ178-211230-
Kiska to Attu-
352 PM AKDT Sat Jul 20 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Patchy fog.
.SUN...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. Patchy fog.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. Patchy fog.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ179-211230-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
352 PM AKDT Sat Jul 20 2019

.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Patchy fog.
.SUN...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Patchy fog.
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft. Patchy fog.
.MON...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE THROUGH THU...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ180-211230-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
352 PM AKDT Sat Jul 20 2019

.TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. Patchy fog.
.SUN...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. Patchy fog.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft. Patchy fog.
.MON...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE THROUGH THU...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ181-211230-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
352 PM AKDT Sat Jul 20 2019

.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. Patchy fog.
.SUN...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. Patchy fog.
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Patchy fog.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ185-211230-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
352 PM AKDT Sat Jul 20 2019

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E of Saint Matthew Island, SW wind 20 kt. W of Saint
Matthew Island, SW wind 20 kt increasing to 30 kt after midnight.
Seas 8 ft. Patchy fog.
.SUN...SW wind 25 kt E of Saint Matthew Island...S 40 kt W of
Saint Matthew Island. Seas 11 ft. Patchy fog.
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 25 kt E of Saint Matthew Island...S 35 kt W of 
Saint Matthew Island. Seas 12 ft. Patchy fog.
.MON...S wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...S wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

924 
FZAK52 PAFC 211115
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
315 AM AKDT Sun Jul 21 2019

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-220015-
315 AM AKDT Sun Jul 21 2019
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

High pressure over the Eastern Bering dissipates Mon afternoon. A
front from a 998 mb Northern Kamchatka low sweeps into the 
Central Bering by Tue morning. A 1018 mb low 310 nm South of Adak 
moves to 410 nm South of Chignik at 1004 mb for Tue morning. Its 
front pushes over the Alaska Peninsula through Tue morning.

$$

PKZ150-220015-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
315 AM AKDT Sun Jul 21 2019

.TODAY...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...S wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ155-220015-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
315 AM AKDT Sun Jul 21 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MONDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Patchy fog.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. Patchy fog.
.MON...SE wind 25 kt except variable 10 kt from the Shumagin
Islands E. Seas 4 ft. Patchy fog.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ160-220015-
Bristol Bay-
315 AM AKDT Sun Jul 21 2019

.TODAY...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Patchy fog.
.TONIGHT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. Patchy fog.
.MON...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming SE 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 2 ft. Patchy fog.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE THROUGH THU...W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ165-220015-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
315 AM AKDT Sun Jul 21 2019

.TODAY...W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Patchy fog.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt becoming E 15 kt after midnight.
Seas 3 ft. Patchy fog.
.MON...E wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Patchy fog.
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...S wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ170-220015-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
315 AM AKDT Sun Jul 21 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND MONDAY...

.TODAY...Variable wind 10 kt becoming SE 20 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 3 ft. Patchy fog.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Gusts to 35 kt out of bays and passes. 
Seas 5 ft. Patchy fog.
.MON...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Patchy fog.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...N wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ171-220015-
Unalaska Bay-
315 AM AKDT Sun Jul 21 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MONDAY...

.TODAY...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming SE 15 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 2 ft. Patchy fog.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Patchy fog.
.MON...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft. Patchy fog. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ172-220015-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
315 AM AKDT Sun Jul 21 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND MONDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Patchy fog.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Patchy fog.
.MON...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Patchy fog. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE...N wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ173-220015-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
315 AM AKDT Sun Jul 21 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E wind 15 kt increasing to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 4 
ft. Patchy fog.
.TONIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Gusts to 35 kt out of bays and passes. Seas
7 ft. Patchy fog. Rain.
.MON...E wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. Patchy fog.
.MON NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...W wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ174-220015-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
315 AM AKDT Sun Jul 21 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Patchy fog. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Patchy fog. Rain.
.MON...Variable wind 10 kt becoming NW 15 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 6 ft. Patchy fog.
.MON NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...W wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ175-220015-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
315 AM AKDT Sun Jul 21 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Patchy fog.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Patchy fog.
.MON...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Patchy fog.
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...W wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ176-220015-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
315 AM AKDT Sun Jul 21 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. Patchy fog. Rain.
.TONIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. Patchy fog.
.MON...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Patchy fog.
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ177-220015-
Adak to Kiska-
315 AM AKDT Sun Jul 21 2019

.TODAY...E wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. Patchy fog.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Patchy fog.
.MON...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. Patchy fog.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE THROUGH THU...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ178-220015-
Kiska to Attu-
315 AM AKDT Sun Jul 21 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. Patchy fog.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. Patchy fog.
.MON...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. Patchy fog.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ179-220015-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
315 AM AKDT Sun Jul 21 2019

.TODAY...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Patchy fog.
.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Patchy fog.
.MON...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. Patchy fog.
.MON NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ180-220015-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
315 AM AKDT Sun Jul 21 2019

.TODAY...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. Patchy fog.
.TONIGHT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft. Patchy fog.
.MON...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Patchy fog.
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...S wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ181-220015-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
315 AM AKDT Sun Jul 21 2019

.TODAY...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. Patchy fog.
.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Patchy fog.
.MON...S wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. Patchy fog.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...S wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...S wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ185-220015-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
315 AM AKDT Sun Jul 21 2019

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW wind 25 kt E of Saint Matthew Island...S 40 kt W of
Saint Matthew Island. Seas 11 ft. Patchy fog.
.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt E of Saint Matthew Island...S 35 kt W of
Saint Matthew Island. Seas 12 ft. Patchy fog.
.MON...S wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft. Patchy fog.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...S wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

302 
FZAK52 PAFC 212320
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
320 PM AKDT Sun Jul 21 2019

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-221230-
320 PM AKDT Sun Jul 21 2019
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A frontal boundary in the western Bering associated with a Bering
Strait low dissipates by Mon afternoon. A frontal boundary
associated with a Kamchatka low enters the western Aleutians Mon
afternoon. A 1008 mb low 160 nm southwest of Adak Sun afternoon 
moves to 120 nm southwest of Dutch Harbor at 1003 mb by Mon 
afternoon and then moves to 220 nm south of Sand Point at 1005 mb
by Tue afternoon.

$$

PKZ150-221230-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
320 PM AKDT Sun Jul 21 2019

.TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ155-221230-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
320 PM AKDT Sun Jul 21 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Patchy fog.
.MON...SE wind 15 kt becoming E 25 kt except SE 15 kt from the 
Shumagin Islands E. Seas 4 ft. Patchy fog.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Patchy fog.
.TUE...E wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED...S wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ160-221230-
Bristol Bay-
320 PM AKDT Sun Jul 21 2019

.TONIGHT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. Patchy fog.
.MON...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming SE 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 2 ft. Patchy fog.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 10 kt becoming SE after midnight. Seas 2 ft.
Patchy fog.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED THROUGH FRI...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ165-221230-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
320 PM AKDT Sun Jul 21 2019

.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. Patchy fog.
.MON...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Patchy fog.
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Patchy fog.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED THROUGH FRI...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ170-221230-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
320 PM AKDT Sun Jul 21 2019

.TONIGHT...SE wind increasing to 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Patchy fog.
.MON...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Patchy fog.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Patchy fog.
.TUE...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ171-221230-
Unalaska Bay-
320 PM AKDT Sun Jul 21 2019

.TONIGHT...SE wind increasing to 20 kt. Seas 2 ft. Patchy fog.
.MON...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Patchy fog.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 15 kt becoming NE after midnight. Seas 3 ft.
Patchy fog.
.TUE...E wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ172-221230-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
320 PM AKDT Sun Jul 21 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind increasing to 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Patchy fog.
.MON...E wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Patchy fog. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Patchy fog.
.TUE...N wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU...W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ173-221230-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
320 PM AKDT Sun Jul 21 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind increasing to 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Patchy fog. Rain.
.MON...E wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Patchy fog.
.MON NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. Patchy fog.
.TUE...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ174-221230-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
320 PM AKDT Sun Jul 21 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Patchy fog. Rain.
.MON...E wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Patchy fog.
.MON NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Patchy fog.
.TUE...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED...W wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ175-221230-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
320 PM AKDT Sun Jul 21 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Patchy fog.
.MON...N wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. Patchy fog.
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. Patchy fog.
.TUE...W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ176-221230-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
320 PM AKDT Sun Jul 21 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Patchy fog.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Patchy fog.
.TUE...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...W wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ177-221230-
Adak to Kiska-
320 PM AKDT Sun Jul 21 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind increasing to 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. Patchy fog.
.MON...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Patchy fog.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Patchy fog.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ178-221230-
Kiska to Attu-
320 PM AKDT Sun Jul 21 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. Patchy fog.
.MON...W wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. Patchy fog.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. Patchy fog. Rain.
.TUE...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ179-221230-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
320 PM AKDT Sun Jul 21 2019

.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Patchy fog.
.MON...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft. Patchy fog. 
.MON NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft. Patchy fog.
.TUE...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ180-221230-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
320 PM AKDT Sun Jul 21 2019

.TONIGHT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft. Patchy fog.
.MON...E wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. Patchy fog.
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft. Patchy fog.
.TUE...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ181-221230-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
320 PM AKDT Sun Jul 21 2019

.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. Patchy fog.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. Patchy fog.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...S wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI...S wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ185-221230-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
320 PM AKDT Sun Jul 21 2019

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt E of Saint Matthew Island...S 35 kt W of
Saint Matthew Island. Seas 13 ft. Patchy fog.
.MON...S wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft. Patchy fog.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. Patchy fog.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...S wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

574 
FZAK52 PAFC 221105
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
305 AM AKDT Mon Jul 22 2019

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-230000-
305 AM AKDT Mon Jul 22 2019
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 1002 mb north Kamchatka low dissipates in the central Bering Tue 
afternoon. Its front pushes into the eastern Bering for Wed morning.
A 1008 mb low 200 nm south of Atka moves to 415 nm south of Chignik 
at 1005 mb by Wed morning. Its front remains south of the Aleutians 
through Wed morning.

$$

PKZ150-230000-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
305 AM AKDT Mon Jul 22 2019

.TODAY...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...W wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ155-230000-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
305 AM AKDT Mon Jul 22 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 25 kt except SE 15 kt from the Shumagin Islands E.
Seas 3 ft. Patchy fog.
.TONIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Patchy fog.
.TUE...E wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Patchy fog.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED...S wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...W wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ160-230000-
Bristol Bay-
305 AM AKDT Mon Jul 22 2019

.TODAY...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming SE 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 2 ft. Patchy fog.
.TONIGHT...E wind 10 kt becoming SE after midnight. Seas 2 ft.
Patchy fog.
.TUE...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Patchy fog.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI...W wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ165-230000-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
305 AM AKDT Mon Jul 22 2019

.TODAY...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Patchy fog.
.TONIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Patchy fog.
.TUE...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Patchy fog.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED...S wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...W wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ170-230000-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
305 AM AKDT Mon Jul 22 2019

.TODAY...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Patchy fog.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Patchy fog.
.TUE...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft. Patchy fog.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED THROUGH FRI...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ171-230000-
Unalaska Bay-
305 AM AKDT Mon Jul 22 2019

.TODAY...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Patchy fog.
.TONIGHT...E wind 15 kt becoming NE after midnight. Seas 3 ft.
Patchy fog.
.TUE...E wind 10 kt in the morning becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 3 ft. Patchy fog.
.TUE NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...W wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ172-230000-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
305 AM AKDT Mon Jul 22 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Patchy fog. Rain.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Patchy fog.
.TUE...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. Patchy fog.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...W wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ173-230000-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
305 AM AKDT Mon Jul 22 2019

.TODAY...E wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Patchy fog.
.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. Patchy fog.
.TUE...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. Patchy fog.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI...W wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ174-230000-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
305 AM AKDT Mon Jul 22 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Patchy fog.
.TONIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Patchy fog.
.TUE...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. Patchy fog.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED...W wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ175-230000-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
305 AM AKDT Mon Jul 22 2019

.TODAY...N wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. Patchy fog.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. Patchy fog.
.TUE...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Patchy fog.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...W wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ176-230000-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
305 AM AKDT Mon Jul 22 2019

.TODAY...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Patchy fog.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Patchy fog.
.TUE...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. Patchy fog.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED...W wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU...W wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ177-230000-
Adak to Kiska-
305 AM AKDT Mon Jul 22 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Patchy fog.
.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Patchy fog.
.TUE...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Patchy fog.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED...W wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ178-230000-
Kiska to Attu-
305 AM AKDT Mon Jul 22 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. Patchy fog.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. Patchy fog. Rain.
.TUE...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. Patchy fog.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ179-230000-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
305 AM AKDT Mon Jul 22 2019

.TODAY...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft. Patchy fog.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft. Patchy fog.
.TUE...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. Patchy fog.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...W wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI...W wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ180-230000-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
305 AM AKDT Mon Jul 22 2019

.TODAY...E wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft. Patchy fog.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft. Patchy fog.
.TUE...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft. Patchy fog.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ181-230000-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
305 AM AKDT Mon Jul 22 2019

.TODAY...S wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. Patchy fog.
.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. Patchy fog.
.TUE...S wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Patchy fog.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ185-230000-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
305 AM AKDT Mon Jul 22 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft. Patchy fog.
.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. Patchy fog.
.TUE...S wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. Patchy fog.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
429 PM AKDT Fri Jul 19 2019

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
In the upper levels a broad ridge encompasses most of the Bering
Sea and Aleutians. A second ridge over western Canada is building
westward into south central Alaska. To the north a deep closed
low is spinning over the Beaufort Sea with a weaker closed low to
the south over the Gulf of Alaska. A weak short-wave trough is
dropping into the col area between the two ridges, across the
Kuskokwim Valley and toward the western Alaska Range.

As far as the sensible weather at the surface, stable conditions
are producing widespread low clouds across the Bering Sea,
Aleutians, and much of southwest Alaska. There are some clouds
and a few showers along the Gulf of Alaska coast, but the bulk of
rain with the low remains offshore. South central Alaska started
out the day mostly clear, but airmass instability (and perhaps to
a lesser extent some weak upper level waves embedded in upper
flow) is leading to development of showers and thunderstorms along
mountain ranges, particularly from the Talkeetna Mountains north
to the Alaska Range.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
Models remain in pretty good agreement with the evolution of the
large scale pattern. One of the biggest challenges through the
weekend will be the cloud cover forecast for south central
Alaska. The atmosphere will trend more and more stable, with some
favorable indicators of potential for formation of low clouds in
the Cook Inlet region (including Anchorage). The cloud forecast
will of course affect the temperature forecast as well. Therefore,
confidence in these forecast parameters is low. The overall
forecast confidence for the remainder of the area as well as for
precipitation over south central Alaska is above average.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...The forecast for the next 24 hours is complicated. First
off, an increase in southerly flow, with both a Turnagain wind and
strong up-Inlet flow, will likely transport more smoke into the
Anchorage area tonight through Saturday morning. With the presence
of the Turnagain wind for much of the night, any surface inversion
which does form should be weaker than the past couple mornings, which
works against really low visibility from smoke. We do think there
will be a period of visibility reduction from smoke sometime
Saturday morning.

There are also some favorable signs for development of a marine
layer, with sub-VFR ceilings. The air mass is already fairly
moist and we will continue to further stabilize the low to mid
levels of the atmosphere. Working against this is the presence of
the Turnagain wind for much of the night and potential for some
mid level clouds from afternoon/evening convection over the Kenai
and Chugach Mountains to drift over Anchorage. For now, we have
left out any indications of low clouds in the TAF and focused on
the aforementioned smoke.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Fire weather concerns over southern Alaska will continue to
diminish through the weekend as the atmosphere becomes more and
more stable with increasing ridging aloft, increasing clouds, and
cooler temperatures and increasing humidity. Isolate thunderstorms
will be focused today over interior south central Alaska, particularly
from the Susitna Valley to the Copper River Basin. A few storms
will also be possible over the Copper River Basin on Saturday,
while Sunday looks stable enough to preclude storm development.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
Not much change to the forecast today. Showers and thunderstorms
will continue to form over the ranges through the evening. By
tomorrow the main source of instability will move further eastward
over the Copper River Basin. The main question for tonight is
whether the southwest flow in the low levels will really cloud in
Southcentral. Current thinking is that a midlevel deck will form
overnight, but dissipate by tomorrow afternoon. This should give a
cool start to Saturday. On Sunday, skies look a little sunnier
and this should push a return to warmer temperatures again.

Smoke also remains a concern around Southcentral. The main smoke
source continues to be the Swan Lake Fire. Southwesterly flow in
the evening will become more southerly overnight, pushing smoke up
into the Anchorage area. Anchorage area residents should not be
surprised to wake up to the smell of smoke again tomorrow morning.

&&

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3; Tonight
through Monday evening)...

Mostly cloudy skies are expected across southwest Alaska through
Monday ahead of a weakening ridge. Weak onshore flow will likely
continue the fog along coastal areas, potentially moving further
inland Saturday and Sunday mornings.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3;
Tonight through Monday evening)...

Gusty northwesterly winds are presently occurring in bays and
passes generally east of Unalaska. These will gradually diminish
through Saturday with generally light winds and low seas
persisting through the forecast period across much of the region.
Drizzle and fog are likely through Monday under a ridge for the
AKPEN and eastern Aleutians. A weak low will move near Adak on
Sunday and track west to east across the western and central
Aleutians through Monday, bringing widespread showers.

&&

.MARINE (Days 3 through 5; Monday through Wednesday)...

Sub gales are expected to persist through Wednesday over the Gulf
of Alaska waters. A front moving into the western Bering Sea
Monday may result in near Gale force wind west of 180.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7; Tuesday through Friday)...

Long range models are generally in good agreement through
Wednesday then begin to diverge. The overall general concept of
low pressure in the north central Bering Sea with a trough over
the Bering Sea and moist onshore flow into western Alaska is
consistent between the models. The Bering Sea and Aleutians will see a
continuation of lows tracking across the region.

The mid to long range for the Gulf and southern mainland looks to
be under generally weak low pressure over the Gulf with weak
ridging over the southern mainland. The models are in good
agreement with the upper level high moving into the Yukon
Territory with an upper level low over the Gulf of Alaska. This
pattern is indicative of a return to more seasonal temperatures
and precipitation over the southern mainland for the middle to
later part of next week.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...SB
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...LF
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...AP
MARINE/LONG TERM...SA