Gale Warning 366, NWS Anchorage, AK

052 
FZAK51 PAFC 022323
CWFAER

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
323 PM AKDT Tue Jul 2 2019

Coastal Waters Forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast
up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ197-031200-
323 PM AKDT Tue Jul 2 2019
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

High pressure remains across the Gulf through Wed afternoon. A 
weak front pushes across the North Gulf Coast into Southeast
Alaska for Thu afternoon. 

$$

PKZ119-031200-
Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare-
323 PM AKDT Tue Jul 2 2019

.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft. Areas of smoke.
.WED...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft. Areas of smoke.
.WED NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft. Areas of smoke.
.THU...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ120-031200-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point-
323 PM AKDT Tue Jul 2 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Smoke.
.WED...NW wind 20 kt in the morning becoming variable 10 kt. Seas
6 ft. Smoke.
.WED NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft. Smoke.
.THU...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ121-031200-
Resurrection Bay-
323 PM AKDT Tue Jul 2 2019

.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Smoke.
.WED...N wind 20 kt becoming S wind 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 4 
ft subsiding to 2 ft in the afternoon. Smoke.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 10 kt becoming N 20 kt after midnight. Seas 4 
ft. Smoke.
.THU...Variable wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ125-031200-
Prince William Sound-
323 PM AKDT Tue Jul 2 2019

.TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Areas of smoke.
.WED...W wind 15 kt becoming SW 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 ft. 
Areas of smoke.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Areas of smoke.
.THU...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ126-031200-
Port Valdez-
323 PM AKDT Tue Jul 2 2019

.TONIGHT...W wind 10 kt becoming NE 15 kt after midnight. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...NE wind 10 kt becoming W 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 ft.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 15 kt becoming NE 10 kt after midnight. Seas 3 
ft.
.THU...Variable wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ127-031200-
Valdez Narrows-
323 PM AKDT Tue Jul 2 2019

.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt becoming NE after midnight. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...NE wind 15 kt becoming SW 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3
ft.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt becoming NE 15 kt after midnight. Seas 3 
ft.
.THU...Variable wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ128-031200-
Valdez Arm-
323 PM AKDT Tue Jul 2 2019

.TONIGHT...SW wind 10 kt becoming N 15 kt after midnight. Seas 3 ft.
Areas of smoke.
.WED...N wind 10 kt becoming SW in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft. Areas
of smoke.
.WED NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ129-031200-
Passage Canal-
323 PM AKDT Tue Jul 2 2019

.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Gusts to 30 kt near Whittier. Seas 2 ft. 
Areas of smoke.
.WED...W wind 15 kt. Gusts to 25 kt near Whittier. Seas 2 ft. Areas 
of smoke.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Gusts to 25 kt near Whittier. Seas 2 ft. 
Areas of smoke.
.THU...W wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ130-031200-
West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-
323 PM AKDT Tue Jul 2 2019

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED...W wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ131-031200-
Barren Islands East-
323 PM AKDT Tue Jul 2 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED...W wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Areas of smoke.
.THU...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ132-031200-
Marmot Island to Sitkinak-
323 PM AKDT Tue Jul 2 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED...W wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...N wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ136-031200-
Chiniak Bay-
323 PM AKDT Tue Jul 2 2019

.TONIGHT...W wind 10 kt becoming SW 20 kt after midnight. Seas 3
ft.
.WED...SE wind 10 kt becoming NE in the afternoon. Seas 3 ft.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 10 kt becoming W 15 kt after midnight. Seas
3 ft.
.THU...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ137-031200-
Marmot Bay-
323 PM AKDT Tue Jul 2 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED...W wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ138-031200-
Shelikof Strait-
323 PM AKDT Tue Jul 2 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ139-031200-
Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede-
323 PM AKDT Tue Jul 2 2019

.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...SW wind 20 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas
4 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less
than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ140-031200-
Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-
323 PM AKDT Tue Jul 2 2019

.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt in the evening becoming variable less
than 10 kt. Seas 3 ft subsiding to 1 ft after midnight.
.THU...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ141-031200-
Kachemak Bay-
323 PM AKDT Tue Jul 2 2019

.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft subsiding to 2 ft after
midnight.
.WED...SW wind 10 kt increasing to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2
ft building to 4 ft in the afternoon.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt in the evening becoming variable less
than 10 kt. Seas 4 ft subsiding to 2 ft after midnight. Areas of 
smoke.
.THU...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

674 
FZAK51 PAFC 031139
CWFAER

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
339 AM AKDT Wed Jul 3 2019

Coastal Waters Forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast
up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ197-040030-
339 AM AKDT Wed Jul 3 2019
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A tight pressure gradient between low pressure and high pressure 
will persist across the western Gulf through Wed night. High pressure
will then build over the Gulf Thu through Thu night.

$$

PKZ119-040030-
Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare-
339 AM AKDT Wed Jul 3 2019

.TODAY...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft. Areas of smoke and fog.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft. Areas of smoke.
.THU...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ120-040030-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point-
339 AM AKDT Wed Jul 3 2019

.TODAY...NW wind 20 kt in the morning becoming variable 10 kt.
Seas 6 ft. Smoke.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft. Smoke.
.THU...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. Areas of smoke.
.THU NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ121-040030-
Resurrection Bay-
339 AM AKDT Wed Jul 3 2019

.TODAY...N wind 20 kt becoming S wind 10 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 4 ft subsiding to 2 ft in the afternoon. Smoke.
.TONIGHT...S wind 10 kt becoming N 20 kt by midnight. Seas 2 ft
building to 4 ft after midnight. Smoke.
.THU...N wind 15 kt becoming S wind 10 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 3 ft. Smoke.
.THU NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...Variable wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ125-040030-
Prince William Sound-
339 AM AKDT Wed Jul 3 2019

.TODAY...Variable wind 10 kt, except W wind to 15 kt 
W of Naked Island. Seas 2 ft. Areas of smoke.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Areas of smoke.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ126-040030-
Port Valdez-
339 AM AKDT Wed Jul 3 2019

.TODAY...NE wind 10 kt becoming W 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt becoming NE 10 kt after midnight. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...NE wind 10 kt becoming W 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ127-040030-
Valdez Narrows-
339 AM AKDT Wed Jul 3 2019

.TODAY...NE wind 15 kt becoming SW 20 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 3 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt becoming NE 15 kt after midnight. 
Seas 3 ft.
.THU...NE wind 15 kt becoming SW 20 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 3 ft.
.THU NIGHT...Variable wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ128-040030-
Valdez Arm-
339 AM AKDT Wed Jul 3 2019

.TODAY...N wind 10 kt becoming SW in the afternoon. 
Seas 2 ft. Areas of smoke.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...N wind 10 kt becoming S in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
.THU NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ129-040030-
Passage Canal-
339 AM AKDT Wed Jul 3 2019

.TODAY...W wind 15 kt. Gusts to 25 kt near Whittier. 
Seas 2 ft. Areas of smoke.
.TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Gusts to 25 kt near Whittier. 
Seas 2 ft. Areas of smoke.
.THU...W wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 2 ft.
.THU NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 1 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 1 ft.

$$

PKZ130-040030-
West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-
339 AM AKDT Wed Jul 3 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU...NW wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt late. Seas 8 ft.
.THU NIGHT THROUGH SUN...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ131-040030-
Barren Islands East-
339 AM AKDT Wed Jul 3 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Areas of smoke.
.THU...NW wind 25 kt becoming Variable wind 10 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 5 ft. Areas of smoke.
.THU NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ132-040030-
Marmot Island to Sitkinak-
339 AM AKDT Wed Jul 3 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ136-040030-
Chiniak Bay-
339 AM AKDT Wed Jul 3 2019

.TODAY...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...NW wind 15 kt becoming variable wind 10 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 3 ft.
.THU NIGHT AND FRI...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ137-040030-
Marmot Bay-
339 AM AKDT Wed Jul 3 2019

.TODAY...W wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...W wind 15 kt becoming variable less than 10 kt 
in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
.THU NIGHT AND FRI...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ138-040030-
Shelikof Strait-
339 AM AKDT Wed Jul 3 2019

.TODAY...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ139-040030-
Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede-
339 AM AKDT Wed Jul 3 2019

.TODAY...Variable wind to 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 10 kt in the evening becoming N 10 kt 
after midnight. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ140-040030-
Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-
339 AM AKDT Wed Jul 3 2019

.TODAY...SW wind to 15 kt. Seas to 3 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt in the evening becoming variable 
less than 10 kt. Seas 3 ft subsiding.
.THU...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ141-040030-
Kachemak Bay-
339 AM AKDT Wed Jul 3 2019

.TODAY...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming SW wind 15 kt 
in the afternoon. Seas building to 3 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt in the evening becoming variable 
less than 10 kt. Seas 3 ft subsiding. Areas of smoke.
.THU...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Areas of smoke.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
507 PM AKDT Mon Jul 1 2019

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
A weak trough is riding over top and dampening our record-
breaking ridge of high pressure that was in place over the
weekend. This has served to cool things down a few degrees today
and dry things out with a wind shift to the northwest. These
northwest winds have also helped to clear much out of the smoke
out of the population centers the the Mat-Su Valleys and the
Anchorage Bowl. However, satellite shows plenty of smoke over the
Swan Lake area drifting down the Seward Highway into Seward. There
is also still plenty of elevated smoke lingering in the higher
passes across Southcentral. Some minor cumulus fields have started
to form across part of the Copper River Basin. These should
continue to develop and a few thunderstorms are possible in that
area this afternoon.

For Southwest AK, riding over the ridge is a warm front stretching
towards the YK-Delta. Light rain is falling along the coastline
near Kipnuk through Hooper Bay. Plenty of low clouds and rain
dominate the rest of the Bering associated with this front and its
parent low over the Western Bering. A zonal upper-level (30,000')
parallels the Western Aleutians running west to east at 90 kts.
It then turns to the northeast at about 80 kts in support of the
warm front.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
The models are in excellent agreement resulting in very high
forecast confidence in the synoptic pattern. The ridge starts to
rebound from the North Pacific over Kodiak and into the Alaska
Range. This will yield another very hot and dry pattern across
most of Southern AK, especially in places with increasing offshore
flow (Seward). The only chances for rain across the mainland will
be near the YK-Delta as various fronts try to push over the
ridge. The biggest challenges will be exactly where the smoke goes
and how dense it gets. It will also be tough to nail down high
temperatures in a few local areas near the coast where sea
breezes may be overwhelmed by offshore flow. Record max
temperatures look likely again in many locations so long as the
smoke doesn't get too thick.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...VFR conditions and light winds will persist. Smoke should
start to drift back in slowly overnight. Confidence is low in
whether or not it will restrict visibility at the terminal.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Swan Lake Fire...Western Kenai Peninsula:
Conditions will return to very hot and dry as the ridge rebounds
during the week. Temperatures will start to approach 90F by Thu
afternoon. Minimum RH values will start to trend drier as well
with low-mid 30 percent range expected by late week. While the
general steering flow will generally be north-northwest, the
surface winds will be mostly terrain and diurnally driven during
this pattern. As the ridge establishes, expect stronger overnight
inversions with increasing subsidence. This will only serve to cap
(picture a "lid") any existing smoke and allow it to spread it
slowly across the area.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...

The ridge of high pressure maintains its hold over Southcentral,
and continues to rebuild northward over the next few days. This
will allow for another round of warm, dry conditions this week,
despite the brief reprieve we've seen today. Currently, weak
upper level waves traversing the north side of the ridge have
allowed for a few areas of convection over the northern parts of
the Copper River Basin. As the ridge builds northward on Tuesday,
offshore flow will strengthen, thus overpowering any potential for
sea breezes to develop along the northern Gulf coast. This will
allow for warmer daytime temperatures along the coast, especially
in Seward, Valdez, and Whittier for Tuesday and Wednesday. Inland
areas of Southcentral will see warmer daytime temperatures as
well.

A Dense Smoke Advisory is still in place for the Kenai Peninsula
through Wednesday 1PM as northwest flow will steer smoke from the
Swan Lake Fire toward the southeast. It is possible this advisory
will need to be extended through later in the week. Nighttime
inversions will likely keep the smoke trapped closer to the
surface, leading to the possibility of the smoke becoming more
widespread during the overnight hours.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (through Thursday)...
Currently a warm front is bringing rain to the Kuskokwim Delta,
but a brief break is in store tonight before a Bering Sea front
makes landfall tomorrow afternoon. The remainder of the mainland
will mostly see an increase in cloud cover and southerly winds,
with just a chance of precipitation. The front weakens in place
on Wednesday. Late Wednesday into Thursday, high pressure builds
back overhead from the southeast, bringing a very warm air mass
with it. Expect a return of hot temperatures and drier conditions
through the end of the week.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (through Thursday)...
The current frontal boundary draped from south to north over the
Bering Sea will stall in the eastern Bering as it weakens Tuesday
into Wednesday. On Wednesday a disturbance will reinvigorate the
front as it moves it back to the west through Thursday.

&&

.MARINE (Days 3 through 5)...
Tuesday through Saturday will be characterized by high pressure
rebuilding over southern Alaska. There is high confidence in this
setup that will result in winds below gale force throughout the
marine areas.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...
Models are in good agreement that a strong ridge will rebuild over
southern Alaska mid this week and remain into the weekend. Hot
and dry conditions will persist across the southern mainland with
above average temperatures and light winds expected. By early next
week, there is a chance that an Arctic low over Canada will bring
a trough from the north through the state. However, the current
forecast shows that the ridge will remain strong enough that this
northerly trough may have little effect at the surface.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NPW 121 125, Flood warning 145(Yentna River).
MARINE...Gales 165 170 173-176 179 181 185 412-414.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...MO
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...KO
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...ML
MARINE/LONG TERM...LF