Gale Warning 355, NWS Anchorage, AK

819 
FZAK62 PAFC 302332
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
332 PM AKDT Sun Jun 30 2019

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-011330-
332 PM AKDT Sun Jun 30 2019
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 1004 mb low at 50N 173E moves to 51N 177E at 1001 mb by Mon 
afternoon then moves to 61N 179W at 996 mb by Tue afternoon.

$$

PKZ411-011330-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
332 PM AKDT Sun Jun 30 2019

.TONIGHT...E of 177E, E wind 10 to 25 kt becoming S after midnight. W
of 177E, E wind 10 to 25 kt becoming N after midnight. Seas 6 ft. 
Rain.
.MON...E of 177E, S wind 10 to 25 kt. W of 177E, N wind 10 to 25 kt.
Seas 6 ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...E of 177E, S wind 10 to 20 kt becoming NW after
midnight. W of 177E, NW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...SW wind up to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 6 ft.
.FRI...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ412-011330-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
332 PM AKDT Sun Jun 30 2019

...GALE WARNING MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain.
.MON...S wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 15 ft. Rain.
.TUE...SW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.WED THROUGH FRI...SE wind up to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 9 ft.

$$

PKZ413-011330-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
332 PM AKDT Sun Jun 30 2019

...GALE WARNING MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 4 to 9 ft. Rain.
.MON...S wind 25 to 35 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft. Rain.
.TUE...SW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft.
.WED...NE wind up to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 8 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...SE wind up to 10 kt. Seas 4 to 9 ft.

$$

PKZ414-011330-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
332 PM AKDT Sun Jun 30 2019

.TONIGHT...S wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 4 to 8 ft.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.TUE...S wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...S wind up to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 9 ft.
.FRI...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.

$$

613 
FZAK62 PAFC 011133
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
333 AM AKDT Mon Jul 1 2019

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-020245-
333 AM AKDT Mon Jul 1 2019
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 1003 mb low at 52N 174E will move to 62N 177W at 1000 mb Tue
morning. The associated front will intensify and move over the
central Bering Tue morning. The low will then weaken over the 
eastern Aleutians Wed morning.

$$

PKZ411-020245-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
333 AM AKDT Mon Jul 1 2019

.TODAY...NE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 8 ft.
.TONIGHT...N wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind up to 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...N wind up to 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI...E wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ412-020245-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
333 AM AKDT Mon Jul 1 2019

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...S wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft. Rain.
.TUE...SW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind up to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.WED...NE wind up to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 8 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...E wind up to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 8 ft.

$$

PKZ413-020245-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
333 AM AKDT Mon Jul 1 2019

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 30 kt becoming 20 to 35 kt in the afternoon. Seas
9 to 14 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...S wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft. Rain.
.TUE...SW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind up to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.WED...NE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 9 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...E wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 9 ft.

$$

PKZ414-020245-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
333 AM AKDT Mon Jul 1 2019

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 4 to 9 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.TUE...S wind 25 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 13 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...SE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 9 ft.
.FRI...NE wind up to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.

$$

752 
FZAK62 PAFC 012341
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
341 PM AKDT Mon Jul 1 2019

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-021345-
341 PM AKDT Mon Jul 1 2019
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A 1002 mb low at 50N 178E moves into the northern Bering by Tue
afternoon. A 1009 mb north Pacific low at 48N 179W Tue afternoon 
moves to 48N 176W at 1003 mb by Wed afternoon. The frontal
boundary associated with these lows moves from the central Bering
Mon afternoon into the eastern Bering by Tue afternoon then
weakens by Wed afternoon.

$$

PKZ411-021345-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
341 PM AKDT Mon Jul 1 2019

.TONIGHT...N wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind up to 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU...N wind up to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ412-021345-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
341 PM AKDT Mon Jul 1 2019

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft. Rain.
.TUE...W wind 15 to 20 kt except S wind 20 to 30 kt E of 175W. Seas 
9 to 14 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.WED...N wind up to 15 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft.
.WED NIGHT...E wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 8 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...E wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 8 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ413-021345-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
341 PM AKDT Mon Jul 1 2019

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...S wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft. Rain.
.TUE...W wind 15 to 20 kt except S wind 20 to 30 kt E of 175W. Seas 
8 to 13 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...N wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.WED...NE wind up to 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED NIGHT...E wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft.
.THU THROUGH SAT...NE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft.

$$

PKZ414-021345-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
341 PM AKDT Mon Jul 1 2019

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...S wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft. Rain.
.TUE...S wind 25 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 15 ft. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 12 ft. Rain.
.WED...S wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft.
.THU...SE wind up to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 8 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NE wind up to 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

427 
FZAK62 PAFC 021133
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
333 AM AKDT Tue Jul 2 2019

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-030245-
333 AM AKDT Tue Jul 2 2019
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A front over the central Bering will move over the eastern
Aleutians and dissipate Wed morning. A weak front, associated with
a North Pacific low will move over the central Aleutians Thu
morning. 

$$

PKZ411-030245-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
333 AM AKDT Tue Jul 2 2019

.TODAY...NW wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 10 to 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED...NW wind 10 to 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind up to 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU...N wind up to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 8 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...E wind up to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 8 ft.

$$

PKZ412-030245-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
333 AM AKDT Tue Jul 2 2019

.TODAY...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.WED...N wind 10 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft.
.WED NIGHT...E wind up to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 7 ft.
.THU THROUGH SAT...E wind up to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 8 ft.

$$

PKZ413-030245-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
333 AM AKDT Tue Jul 2 2019

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...W wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.TONIGHT...N wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.WED...NE wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED NIGHT...E wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 9 ft.
.THU THROUGH SAT...E wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft.

$$

PKZ414-030245-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
333 AM AKDT Tue Jul 2 2019

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...S wind 25 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 15 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft. Rain.
.WED...S wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 9 ft.
.THU...SE wind up to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 8 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NE wind up to 15 kt. Seas 0 to 5 ft.

$$

435 
FZAK62 PAFC 022330
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
330 PM AKDT Tue Jul 2 2019

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-031230-
330 PM AKDT Tue Jul 2 2019
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 1001 mb low at 63N 175W moves into the Chukchi Sea Wed morning.
Its front extends to a 1009 mb North Pacific low and dissipates
over the Eastern Bering Wed afternoon. The second low slides to
46N 174W at 998 mb with its front South of the Aleutians for Thu
afternoon.

$$

PKZ411-031230-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
330 PM AKDT Tue Jul 2 2019

.TONIGHT...W wind 10 to 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED...NW wind 10 to 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 10 to 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU...N wind up to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 6 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 8 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...E wind up to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 8 ft.

$$

PKZ412-031230-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
330 PM AKDT Tue Jul 2 2019

.TONIGHT...NW wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.WED...N wind 10 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft.
.WED NIGHT...E wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 7 ft. Rain.
.THU...E wind up to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 8 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...NE wind up to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 8 ft.

$$

PKZ413-031230-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
330 PM AKDT Tue Jul 2 2019

.TONIGHT...N wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.WED...NE wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED NIGHT...E wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 9 ft.
.THU...E wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft.
.THU NIGHT...E wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...E wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 9 ft.

$$

PKZ414-031230-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
330 PM AKDT Tue Jul 2 2019

.TONIGHT...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft. Rain.
.WED...S wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 9 ft.
.THU...SE wind up to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 8 ft.
.THU NIGHT...E wind up to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 6 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NE wind up to 15 kt. Seas 0 to 5 ft.
.SUN...N wind 10 kt. Seas 1 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
527 PM AKDT Sat Jun 29 2019

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
High pressure continues to dominate the southern mainland but is
now starting to slowly move to the east. The inversion from this
high pressure has trapped smoke from the Swan Lake fire and that
smoke has drifted to areas all around Southcentral Alaska with the
most dense areas on the Kenai Peninsula. Out west, a front is
pushing through the central Bering as it tracks to the east.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
The main meteorological models are in decent agreement through
the mid term with the major synoptic features. However, the smoke
dispersion models are struggling to handle the smoke from the Swan
Lake fire. How far north to bring the more dense smoke on Sunday
as the flow switches to the south has been a particular area of
struggle. However, most of the models are now bringing in the more
dense areas of smoke over the Anchorage area Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...Smoke from the Swan Lake fire continues to be the main
impact at the airport. As the inversion enhances overnight tonight
smoke will spread from the fire and move over the Anchorage area.
It looks to be dense enough to drop visibilities to MVFR. Early
in the morning winds will shift to the south bringing up more
smoke from the fire and further reducing visibilities at the
airport. The southerly flow and reduced visibilities will last
through much of Sunday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
High pressure over Southcentral Alaska will last through tonight
keeping conditions clear and dry for the Swan Lake fire. The high
pressure has also created an inversion that is trapping smoke near
the surface that will strengthen overnight tonight. This will
result in smoke spreading out for areas around the Kenai
Peninsula and areas farther north including the Susitna Valley.
The most dense areas of smoke will be in the interior Kenai
Peninsula and the Seward area. The Dense Smoke Advisories for
these locations will last through much of the night.

Early on Sunday the front approaching from the west will change
the flow over the area to a southerly direction which will help to
clear out some of the smoke over Seward and interior Kenai
Peninsula, but will drive that smoke to the north to locations
including Anchorage. There is some uncertainty with the smoke
dispersion models on the farthest reaches of the smoke and the
duration that it will linger over some of the more northerly
locations such as the Susitna Valley. However, there is fairly
high confidence in dense smoke moving in over Anchorage on Sunday
resulting in a Dense Smoke Advisory for the area.

Looking out into next week there is good agreement from the models
of high pressure building back in over Southcentral Alaska by mid
week. This high pressure looks to last through the end of the week
bringing the potential for more smoke concerns to interior Kenai
Peninsula for the July 3-5 timeframe. This setup looks somewhat
similar to the current setup which would also mean areas in and
around Seward could see more smoke. There is low confidence in
determining how dense any smoke around the Kenai Peninsula would
be looking that far out into the week.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
(Tonight through Monday evening)

Persistence is a virtue they say, and mother nature will be
following that trend as the latest numerical guidance has trended
warmer with afternoon high temperatures for Sunday and Monday.
This looks reasonable given a slower breakdown/less displacement
of the ridge of high pressure dominating our weather.

That said, southwesterly flow ahead of an approaching weak
disturbance trying to round the top of the ridge will be
sufficient to cool 850 mb about 2 air 3 degrees Celsius for all
of southcentral, allowing surface temps to decrease somewhat.
However, this looks to be short-lived though, with more of this in
the long term portion of the discussion.

The other net affect of this incoming disturbance is a switch to
southwesterly flow tonight. Much of the Anchorage Bowl, Matanuska
Valley, and Copper Basin has seen smoke for days now in the lower
valley locations, aided by nocturnal inversions helping to trap
that smoke due. This will allow the smoke density to increase for
the Anchorage Bowl, with our first ever Dense Smoke Advisory
having already been issued for the Anchorage area.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

Clear and dry conditions will persist across interior Southwest
Alaska through tomorrow as a ridge of high pressure remains
anchored over the southern mainland. The stratus and fog that
developed early this morning across the Bristol Bay region will
likely redevelop during the early morning hours Sunday, aided in
part by the ridge aloft and an increasing moist, onshore flow
ahead of a trough currently over the central Bering. As the
trough moves toward the coast tomorrow, it will suppress the
ridge, allowing clouds and scattered showers to develop along the
coast and over the Y-K Delta. A westerly, onshore flow will also
help lower temperatures a bit as well. This system will quickly
fall apart as it moves into the interior, limiting the development
of clouds and showers south and east of the Kilbuck Mountains to
mainly the higher elevations. Drier conditions return by Monday
for much of the southwest as another surface ridge moves east over
the region. The exception to this will be the Y-K Delta where
some cloud cover and showers will skirt the region late Monday
into Tuesday as a front lifts north across the Bering.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3)...

A frontal boundary currently west of the Pribilofs will continue
to push east tonight, edging closer to the Southwest Alaska coast
for tomorrow. Behind it, a ridge of high pressure will develop
across the Bering with areas of low stratus and fog through Sunday.
Farther west, a warm front associated with a north Pacific low
will lift north across the western half of the Aleutian Chain
overnight. This system will continue to advance north tomorrow,
with rain overspreading much of the western and central Bering as
the center of the low tracks toward Shemya. This low then slowly
lifts over the western Bering on Monday and Tuesday with
widespread rain and gales persisting from the central Aleutians
north across the Bering, including the Pribilofs.

&&

.MARINE (Days 3 through 5; Tuesday through Friday)...

A front will track across the central Bering Tuesday. As it
interacts with strong high pressure to the east and its parent
low to the west slightly strengthens, localized gales and
moderate showers across will be likely across the region. Winds
will gradually diminish trough the end of the week, however
showers will continue. Further towards the AKPEN, showers are less
likely and the usually marine stratus is more likely northwest of
high pressure.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7; Wednesday through Sunday)...

Models are in good agreement that a strong ridge will rebuild over
Alaska through next week. Hot and dry conditions will persist
across Southcentral with temperatures again approaching 80 in the
Anchorage area.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Flood warning 145. Dense smoke advisory 101 and 121.
MARINE...NONE.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...DK
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...PD
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...TM
MARINE/LONG TERM...AP