Gale Warning 346, NWS Anchorage, AK

918 
FZAK51 PAFC 222350
CWFAER

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
350 PM AKDT Wed May 22 2019

Coastal Waters Forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast
up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ197-231230-
350 PM AKDT Wed May 22 2019
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A 987 mb Pacific low 110 nm southwest of Sitkinak will move to 
near Kodiak at 1008 mb Thu morning. The low will then dissipate 
near 60 nm southwest of Middleton Island Fri morning. A front 
will move into the southwestern Gulf Fri afternoon.

$$

PKZ119-231230-
Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare-
350 PM AKDT Wed May 22 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain.
.THU...SE wind 25 kt becoming S 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 13
ft.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON...S wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ120-231230-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point-
350 PM AKDT Wed May 22 2019

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft. Rain.
.THU...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft. Rain showers.
.THU NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.FRI...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON...S wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ121-231230-
Resurrection Bay-
350 PM AKDT Wed May 22 2019

.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt diminishing to 10 kt after midnight. Seas 3 
ft. Rain.
.THU...S wind 10 kt increasing to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3
ft. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...S wind 15 kt becoming Variable wind 10 kt after
midnight. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ125-231230-
Prince William Sound-
350 PM AKDT Wed May 22 2019

.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.THU...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft subsiding to 2 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...E wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt after midnight.
Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ126-231230-
Port Valdez-
350 PM AKDT Wed May 22 2019

.TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt in the evening becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming W 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less
than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ127-231230-
Valdez Narrows-
350 PM AKDT Wed May 22 2019

.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt becoming N 15 kt after midnight. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...NE wind 10 kt becoming SW 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt in the evening becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ128-231230-
Valdez Arm-
350 PM AKDT Wed May 22 2019

.TONIGHT...SW wind 10 kt becoming NE 15 kt after midnight. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...NE wind 15 kt becoming SW 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less
than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ129-231230-
Passage Canal-
350 PM AKDT Wed May 22 2019

.TONIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.THU...E wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...E wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt after midnight.
Seas 2 ft.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT THROUGH MON...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ130-231230-
West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-
350 PM AKDT Wed May 22 2019

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 45 kt diminishing to 35 kt after midnight. Seas
17 ft. Rain.
.THU...E wind 30 kt becoming NE 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 11 ft
subsiding to 5 ft in the afternoon.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...E wind 40 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ131-231230-
Barren Islands East-
350 PM AKDT Wed May 22 2019

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 45 kt diminishing to 35 kt after midnight. Seas
15 ft.
.THU...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.FRI...S wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...E wind 40 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON...S wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ132-231230-
Marmot Island to Sitkinak-
350 PM AKDT Wed May 22 2019

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 21 ft. Rain.
.THU...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...S wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ136-231230-
Chiniak Bay-
350 PM AKDT Wed May 22 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain.
.THU...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...S wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...S wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ137-231230-
Marmot Bay-
350 PM AKDT Wed May 22 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft. Rain.
.THU...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft subsiding to 3 ft in the afternoon.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 15 kt becoming SW 10 kt after midnight. Seas
3 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ138-231230-
Shelikof Strait-
350 PM AKDT Wed May 22 2019

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 40 kt. Seas 12 ft. Rain.
.THU...SE wind 25 kt becoming SW 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 6 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft subsiding to 4 ft after midnight.
.FRI...E wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 45 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SAT...E wind 40 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ139-231230-
Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede-
350 PM AKDT Wed May 22 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 10 kt becoming SW after midnight. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...S wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...E wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...S wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ140-231230-
Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-
350 PM AKDT Wed May 22 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft building to 6 ft after midnight.
.THU...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU NIGHT...E wind 15 kt becoming SE 10 kt after midnight. Seas 
2 ft.
.FRI...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 1 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN...E wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...S wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ141-231230-
Kachemak Bay-
350 PM AKDT Wed May 22 2019

.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...E wind 15 kt becoming SE 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
.THU NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming SW 10 kt after
midnight. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

682 
FZAK51 PAFC 231143
CWFAER

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
343 AM AKDT Thu May 23 2019

Coastal Waters Forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast
up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ197-240015-
343 AM AKDT Thu May 23 2019
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 1001 mb low over Sitkinak Thu morning moves to 70 south of
Middleton Island at 1019 mb by Fri morning and then dissipates. A
front moves into the southwest Gulf by Sat morning.

$$

PKZ119-240015-
Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare-
343 AM AKDT Thu May 23 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas
13 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.FRI...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON...S wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ120-240015-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point-
343 AM AKDT Thu May 23 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft. Rain showers.
.TONIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.FRI...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON...S wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ121-240015-
Resurrection Bay-
343 AM AKDT Thu May 23 2019

.TODAY...N wind 10 kt becoming S 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 ft.
 Widespread rain showers.
.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt becoming Variable wind 10 kt after midnight. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...Variable wind 10 kt becoming S 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ125-240015-
Prince William Sound-
343 AM AKDT Thu May 23 2019

.TODAY...E wind 20 kt diminishing to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 4 
ft. Widespread rain showers.
.TONIGHT...E wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less than 
10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...E wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ126-240015-
Port Valdez-
343 AM AKDT Thu May 23 2019

.TODAY...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming SW 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less
than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming W 10 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 2 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ127-240015-
Valdez Narrows-
343 AM AKDT Thu May 23 2019

.TODAY...NE wind 10 kt becoming SW 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas
3 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt in the evening becoming variable less
than 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming SW 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ128-240015-
Valdez Arm-
343 AM AKDT Thu May 23 2019

.TODAY...NE wind 15 kt becoming SW 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas
3 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less
than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming SW 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ129-240015-
Passage Canal-
343 AM AKDT Thu May 23 2019

.TODAY...E wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.TONIGHT...E wind 15 kt becoming Variable wind 10 kt after
midnight. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...Variable wind 10 kt in the morning becoming variable less
than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT THROUGH MON...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ130-240015-
West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-
343 AM AKDT Thu May 23 2019

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 35 kt diminishing to 20 kt this afternoon. Seas 14 ft subsiding
to 8 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas subsiding to 5 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT...E wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SUN...E wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ131-240015-
Barren Islands East-
343 AM AKDT Thu May 23 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.TONIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.FRI...S wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...E wind 40 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON...S wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ132-240015-
Marmot Island to Sitkinak-
343 AM AKDT Thu May 23 2019

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 35 kt diminishing to 20 kt after midnight. Seas
13 ft.
.FRI...Variable wind 10 kt becoming SE 25 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 7 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...S wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ136-240015-
Chiniak Bay-
343 AM AKDT Thu May 23 2019

.TODAY...SE wind 20 kt becoming W 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 7
ft subsiding to 2 ft in the afternoon.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt becoming W 10 kt after midnight. Seas 3
ft.
.FRI...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming SE 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN...S wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ137-240015-
Marmot Bay-
343 AM AKDT Thu May 23 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...E wind 25 kt becoming N 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 8 ft
subsiding to 3 ft in the afternoon.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt becoming W 10 kt after midnight. Seas 2
ft.
.FRI...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming E 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ138-240015-
Shelikof Strait-
343 AM AKDT Thu May 23 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI...Variable wind 10 kt becoming E 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas
4 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 45 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.SAT...E wind 40 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ139-240015-
Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede-
343 AM AKDT Thu May 23 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...N wind 30 kt diminishing to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 9 ft subsiding
to 4 ft. 
.TONIGHT...NW wind 10 kt becoming SW after midnight. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...S wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON...S wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ140-240015-
Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-
343 AM AKDT Thu May 23 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 5 ft subsiding
to 2 ft.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt becoming S 10 kt after midnight. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...S wind 10 kt in the morning becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...S wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ141-240015-
Kachemak Bay-
343 AM AKDT Thu May 23 2019

.TODAY...N wind 10 kt becoming W 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming SW 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
422 PM AKDT Tue May 21 2019

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
The synoptic pattern is made up a complex series of lows aloft.
The first is a decaying vertically stacked low over the eastern
Bering. This low is driving much of the cyclonic flow that
encompasses the Bering Sea and Gulf of Alaska. The second is a
weakening low aloft in the southern Gulf of Alaska. This low sits
at the base of a shortwave that is moving through the flow around
the low in the Bering. At the surface, conditions are fairly mild
with some showers occurring in the Kuskokwim Delta ahead of the
surface low in the eastern Bering. An inverted trough has
positioned itself over the Gulf of Alaska, with high pressure
inland, is bringing calm, dry and generally sunny conditions to
much of south central Alaska. This area of general low pressure
can be observed in visual satellite imagery as the slight curl of
clouds in the central Gulf of Alaska. The next active system, a
strong 985 mb low in the North Pacific, is moving north towards
the eastern Aleutians.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
Models have come into good agreement through Thursday and there
is very little variation between them at this point. All models
depict a similar track of the North Pacific low as it moves
through the western Gulf of Alaska on Wednesday. The main,
although slight, difference is the overall strength of this system
as it moves through the western Gulf.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...VFR conditions will persist. Light wind are expected into
Wednesday morning. Expect gusty south wind to develop Wednesday
afternoon, persisting well into Wednesday evening, as a weather
front approaches.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2/Tuesday
afternoon through Thursday afternoon)...

A surface ridge in place along the northern Gulf coast has
brought generally clear skies to much of south central Alaska today.
However, a pattern change is underway for Wednesday as a North
Pacific low lifts northward and tracks over the Alaska Peninsula.
A front associated with this low will extend over the Gulf of
Alaska, bringing rain to Kodiak Island beginning Wednesday
morning. As the front approaches, the usual southeasterly gap
winds (including Turnagain Arm into Anchorage and Knik River
Valley into Palmer) will begin during the morning hours on
Wednesday, increasing by Wednesday afternoon. The front will
progress northward and lift over south central Alaska by
Wednesday evening, by which time most of the northern Gulf coast
will see rain. Given the southeasterly flow, the Anchorage Bowl
will likely not see very much precipitation due to downsloping.
The heaviest precipitation will be along the northern Gulf coast
and will eventually taper off by Thursday afternoon as the front
weakens.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3; Today
through Friday)...

Showers and possible thunderstorms will continue tracking south
to north along the Kuskokwim Delta today under a weak front. Low
pressure will approach Kodiak Island Wednesday morning and
continue to move northward through the day, bringing gusty
easterly winds to southwest Alaska (with gusts potentially
exceeding 50 mph in the Kamishak Gap). Downsloped areas including
King Salmon should see very little rain. Widespread showers will
remain well north of the low center over the Kuskokwim Delta. The
low will weaken Thursday and winds will subsequently diminish,
although scattered showers will persist over much of the region.
After a brief break Friday morning, another low will lead to rain
developing over southwest Alaska, north of its associated warm
front.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3; Today
through Friday)...

Generally benign conditions are expected for the majority of the
region. The lone exception will be a low that will approach the
Alaska Peninsula and eastern Aleutians Wednesday morning bringing
gales and moderate rain to areas generally east of Unalaska
through the day. Conditions will improve Thursday as the low
weakens. As a ridge amplifies over the western Bering, another low
will approach the same aforementioned area Friday morning
bringing more rain to the central and eastern Aleutians north of
its associated warm front.

&&

.MARINE (Days 3 through 5)...
A low tracking north towards the eastern Aleutians late Thursday
night through Friday morning and its associated front will bring
the potential for wind in the 25 to 30 kt range with localized
areas up to 35 kt to the waters around the eastern Aleutians, east
into the western Gulf. Following that, a more active southerly
storm track will set up in the vicinity over the western Gulf,
increasing the potential for periodic Small Craft Advisory to Gale
strength wind through the weekend as a series of frontal waves
push north over the western Gulf.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...
By Thursday evening the upper level pattern will have progressed
to having an upper level trough extending from a North Pacific
upper low across the central and eastern Aleutians to a second
upper low over southwest Alaska with ridging pushing slowly east
over the western Aleutians. To the east, a strong upper level
ridge centered over northwest Canada will extend a spur ridge
west across northern interior Alaska. The upper low over
southwest Alaska with troughing extending into south central
Alaska will lift gradually north into interior Alaska Thursday
night through Friday as a broad upper level ridge over the eastern
Pacific builds north into the Gulf of Alaska. Although conditions
will be cool for fire weather concerns, this pattern shift will
lead to rather breezy conditions in the Copper River Basin
Thursday afternoon/evening through Friday.

By Friday, another North Pacific low will have tracked north to be
located south of the eastern Aleutians and western Alaska
Peninsula with its associated front lifting north into the western
Gulf of Alaska. The ridge in the Gulf of Alaska will sharpen in
response on Friday with its axis shifting east over the eastern
Gulf of Alaska and southeast Alaska Friday night as the front
pushes north over Kodiak Island and southwest Alaska. The ridge
will continue to amplify over the eastern Gulf of Alaska and
build into western Canada as well on Saturday, while the front
pushes north to stretch across both southwest and south central
Alaska as its supporting surface low tracks into Bristol Bay.

With a very long southerly fetch and temperatures warming at all
levels under the ridge, concerns are growing for an atmospheric
river event developing for southern Alaska. While details regarding
the location of the heaviest coastal precipitation and whether or
not it will stall over one spot or oscillate back and forth
across the western and northern Gulf coast remain uncertain,
confidence is increasing in the pattern shifting to a significantly
wetter one starting Friday night and persisting through the
weekend.

By around Monday, the upper level ridge shifts east and inland to
be centered over British Columbia and Alberta with its axis
negatively tilted and extending northwestward across the Yukon
Territory and into far northeastern Alaska. With an elongated
upper low setting up over western Alaska and the eastern Bering,
south to southeasterly flow will continue to bring frontal systems
across the Gulf of Alaska and into southern Alaska through the
first half of next week. This will keep the pattern on the damp
and active side even if not with as much continuous moderate to
heavy rain as the weekend has the potential to bring to coastal
areas.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...Gale 130 131 132 137 138 351 352 150 155.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...RA
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...DK/KO
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...AP
MARINE/LONG TERM...JR