Gale Warning 340, NWS Anchorage, AK

572 
FZAK52 PAFC 091147
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
347 AM AKDT Thu May 9 2019

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-100045-
347 AM AKDT Thu May 9 2019
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A front associated with a 987 mb Pacific low at 155 nm southeast
of Chignik will move over the Alaska Peninsula Fri morning. The
front will then dissipate Fri evening. A 1009 mb Kamchatka low 
will move to 100 nm north of Adak at 1004 mb Fri morning then it 
will move to 110 nm northwest of Dutch Harbor and dissipate Sat 
morning.

$$

PKZ150-100045-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
347 AM AKDT Thu May 9 2019

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 20 kt becoming NE 30 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 8 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain.
.FRI...W wind 40 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...S wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ155-100045-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
347 AM AKDT Thu May 9 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

.TODAY...Variable wind 10 kt becoming NW 15 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 6 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt except W 30 kt from the Shumagin Islands
E. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...W wind 20 kt except W 30 kt from the Shumagin Islands E.
Seas 8 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ160-100045-
Bristol Bay-
347 AM AKDT Thu May 9 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.FRI...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ165-100045-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
347 AM AKDT Thu May 9 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FRIDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI...W wind 20 kt except W 30 kt from Port Moller E. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ170-100045-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
347 AM AKDT Thu May 9 2019

.TODAY...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ171-100045-
Unalaska Bay-
347 AM AKDT Thu May 9 2019

.TODAY...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain showers.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ172-100045-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
347 AM AKDT Thu May 9 2019

.TODAY...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ173-100045-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
347 AM AKDT Thu May 9 2019

.TODAY...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ174-100045-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
347 AM AKDT Thu May 9 2019

.TODAY...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain showers.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...W wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ175-100045-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
347 AM AKDT Thu May 9 2019

.TODAY...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain showers.
.FRI...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ176-100045-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
347 AM AKDT Thu May 9 2019

.TODAY...W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain showers.
.FRI...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ177-100045-
Adak to Kiska-
347 AM AKDT Thu May 9 2019

.TODAY...W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ178-100045-
Kiska to Attu-
347 AM AKDT Thu May 9 2019

.TODAY...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI...N wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ179-100045-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
347 AM AKDT Thu May 9 2019

.TODAY...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ180-100045-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
347 AM AKDT Thu May 9 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FRIDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN...S wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ181-100045-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
347 AM AKDT Thu May 9 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FRIDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...N wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ185-100045-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
347 AM AKDT Thu May 9 2019

.TODAY...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TONIGHT...E of Saint Matthew Island, variable wind 10 kt. W of
Saint Matthew Island, SW wind 20 kt becoming E after midnight.
Seas 6 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN...N wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

025 
FZAK52 PAFC 092312
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
312 PM AKDT Thu May 9 2019

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-101145-
312 PM AKDT Thu May 9 2019
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A front associated with a 987 mb Pacific low at 155 nm southeast of 
Chignik will move over the Alaska Peninsula Fri morning. The front 
will then dissipate Fri evening. A 1009 mb Kamchatka low will move to
100 nm north of Adak at 1004 mb Fri morning then it will move to 110
nm northwest of Dutch Harbor and dissipate Sat morning.

$$

PKZ150-101145-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
312 PM AKDT Thu May 9 2019

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 35 kt in the evening becoming NW. Seas building to
14 ft. Rain.
.FRI...W wind 40 kt. Seas 15 ft. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 35 kt in the evening diminishing to 25 kt. Seas
14 ft subsiding to 10 ft after midnight.
.SAT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN...S wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ155-101145-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
312 PM AKDT Thu May 9 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E of the Shumagin Islands, W wind 20 kt increasing to 30
kt after midnight. W of Shumagin Islands, W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft
except seas 6 ft building to 10 ft after midnight from the Shumagin 
Islands E.
.FRI...W wind 20 kt except W 30 kt from the Shumagin Islands E.
Seas 7 ft except seas 10 ft from the Shumagin Islands E.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ160-101145-
Bristol Bay-
312 PM AKDT Thu May 9 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.FRI...N wind 20 kt becoming W 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 6 ft. 
Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ165-101145-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
312 PM AKDT Thu May 9 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. W of Port Moller, variable wind 10 kt
becoming NW 15 kt after midnight. Seas building to 7 ft. W of Port
Moller, seas 3 ft. Rain.
.FRI...W wind 20 kt except W 30 kt from Port Moller E. Seas 9 ft.
Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 20 kt except W 30 kt from Port Moller E. Seas
8 ft.
.SAT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...E wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ170-101145-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
312 PM AKDT Thu May 9 2019

.TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI...W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...E wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ171-101145-
Unalaska Bay-
312 PM AKDT Thu May 9 2019

.TONIGHT...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...W wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas
2 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming SW 10 kt after
midnight. Seas 2 ft. Rain showers.
.SAT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ172-101145-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
312 PM AKDT Thu May 9 2019

.TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ173-101145-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
312 PM AKDT Thu May 9 2019

.TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...E wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ174-101145-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
312 PM AKDT Thu May 9 2019

.TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain showers.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ175-101145-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
312 PM AKDT Thu May 9 2019

.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain showers.
.FRI...W wind 20 kt becoming NW in the afternoon. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ176-101145-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
312 PM AKDT Thu May 9 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain showers.
.FRI...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ177-101145-
Adak to Kiska-
312 PM AKDT Thu May 9 2019

.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...E wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ178-101145-
Kiska to Attu-
312 PM AKDT Thu May 9 2019

.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI...N wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ179-101145-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
312 PM AKDT Thu May 9 2019

.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ180-101145-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
312 PM AKDT Thu May 9 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.FRI...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain showers.
.SAT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ181-101145-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
312 PM AKDT Thu May 9 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI...N wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain.
.SAT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ185-101145-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
312 PM AKDT Thu May 9 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E of Saint Matthew Island, variable wind 10 kt. W of
Saint Matthew Island, W wind 20 kt becoming E after midnight. Seas
5 ft.
.FRI...N wind 25 kt E of Saint Matthew Island...E 20 kt W of Saint
Matthew Island. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN...N wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
416 AM AKDT Wed May 8 2019

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
The pattern is defined by a broad area of low pressure over the
Bering with ridging off to the east over the panhandle. This
setup allows for southerly flow over most of the southern
mainland. Multiple lows are rotating around the main low with one
of the stronger shortwaves having spun up a low in the Gulf. That
low is pulling a long fetch of moisture to the north Gulf coast
resulting in rain for areas around Southcentral Alaska with the
heaviest rain along the coast.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
The models are in decent agreement with the main features through
the mid term but there are a few small scale problems. The
biggest concern is with a low tracking toward Kodiak Island on
Thursday from the North Pacific. Guidance is struggling with the
timing of this feature which will play a factor for winds and
precipitation for areas around the Gulf. A middle ground solution
was preferred.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...Rain and lower ceilings will continue until late this
morning when winds will pick back up from a southeast direction.
The winds should stay fairly consistent and help to raise
ceilings and diminish the rain through Wednesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
A weather system bringing rain to most of Southcentral this
morning will move north of the area by this afternoon. The rain
will then change to showers and taper off through tonight.
Southerly winds will also sweep across much of the area as the low
level flow becomes strongly onshore with the surface low moving
north. There will be a brief quiet period in the weather tonight
into Thursday morning. Another system will move into the Gulf on
Thursday. The leading front will reach the north Gulf coast by
noon and then push inland. This low will take a more westerly
track than this mornings system, and the flow aloft will become
more easterly. This will limit the precipitation that makes it
inland, with most of the rain falling along and near the coast.
The low will begin to move northward Thursday night, pushing into
the Southcentral mainland on Friday. As this low moves north of
the area Friday afternoon, southerly winds will increase and
become quite gusty.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
Moist southerly flow with a few weak shortwaves moving through
will continue to bring showers to Southwest Alaska through
Thursday. A frontal system associated with a low tracking north
through the southwest Gulf will rotate into the area from the
east late Thursday afternoon through Thursday night bringing more
widespread rain with it. The low will track slowly to the
northwest across Southwest Alaska on Friday with rain changing
back over to showers Friday night.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...
A broad upper level low with multiple fairly weak surface lows
rotating around its periphery will persist over the Bering and
Aleutians through the end of the week. The cool, unstable airmass
associated with the upper low will keep isolated to scattered
showers going over the Bering with more numerous showers
accompanying each of the surface lows and troughs rotating
through.

&&

.MARINE (Days 3 through 5: Friday through Sunday)...

On Friday morning, the low inland over Southwest Alaska will
continue to produce gale force winds through Bristol Bay, Shelikof
Strait, and the Gulf waters east of Kodiak. The winds will subside
from east to west through Friday night. There is some potential
for a low to impact many of the same areas Saturday night into
Sunday with an additional round of gale force winds in Shelikof
Strait and the waters around Kodiak. However, there is substantial
model disagreement about this system and uncertainty is high.
Elsewhere, there is good confidence that no areas of high winds
or waves will occur through Sunday.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Saturday through Tuesday)...

The long-term forecast remains a quiet one overall across much of
southern mainland Alaska. Two different features: a low moving to
near Kodiak and/or Bristol Bay on Sunday, and a cold front and
associated low moving across the northern Bering into the
Kuskokwim Delta are both depicted by only one forecast model, and
left out by the others. Thus, there is high uncertainty about
whether they will impact the area at all. The low that moves
through Southwest Alaska Friday will slowly depart during the day
Saturday, taking most of its associated precipitation with it by
Saturday night across Southwest Alaska. Disorganized shower
activity will be common across most of southern mainland Alaska on
Saturday and Sunday, with high pressure and quieter weather likely
taking over for Monday and Tuesday.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...Gales...131 138.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...DK
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...BL
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...JR
MARINE/LONG TERM...JW