Gale Warning 326, NWS Anchorage, AK

335 
FZAK61 PAFC 212339
OFFAER

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
339 PM AKDT Tue May 21 2019

Offshore waters forecast for the Gulf of Alaska West of 144W

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ399-221245-
339 PM AKDT Tue May 21 2019
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...

A front associated with a 983 mb North Pacific low will move into
the southwestern Gulf Wed morning then it will move into the 
northern Gulf Wed night. The front will dissipate Thu morning. 

$$

PKZ351-221245-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore North of 57N and West of 144W-
339 PM AKDT Tue May 21 2019

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 10 to 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED...SE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 6 to 10 ft. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.THU...SW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 11 to 16 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 to 13 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...S wind up to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.

$$

PKZ352-221245-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore South of 57N North of 55N and West of
144W-
339 PM AKDT Tue May 21 2019

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind up to 15 kt increasing to 15 to 30 kt after
midnight. Seas 7 ft.
.WED...SE wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft.
.THU...SW wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 12 to 18 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 8 to 12 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.

$$

864 
FZAK61 PAFC 221145
OFFAER

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
345 AM AKDT Wed May 22 2019

Offshore waters forecast for the Gulf of Alaska West of 144W

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ399-230130-
345 AM AKDT Wed May 22 2019
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A front in the southwestern Gulf Wed morning spreads across the
northern Gulf by Thu morning and then dissipates by Fri morning.
The associated 983 mb North Pacific low moves to 57N 154W at 1002
mb by Thu morning. High pressure builds across the Gulf starting 
Fri morning.


$$

PKZ351-230130-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore North of 57N and West of 144W-
345 AM AKDT Wed May 22 2019

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 15 to 30 kt increasing to 25 to 40 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 6 ft building to 8 to 15 ft in the afternoon. 
Rain.
.TONIGHT...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 15 ft.
.THU...SW wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 11 to 16 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.

$$

PKZ352-230130-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore South of 57N North of 55N and West of
144W-
345 AM AKDT Wed May 22 2019

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 8 to 16 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft.
.THU...SW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 13 to 19 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...SE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.SUN...S wind 20 kt. Seas 7 to 11 ft.

$$

647 
FZAK61 PAFC 222347
OFFAER

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
347 PM AKDT Wed May 22 2019

Offshore waters forecast for the Gulf of Alaska West of 144W

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ399-231330-
347 PM AKDT Wed May 22 2019
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...

A 987 mb Pacific low at 54N 156W will move to 58N 152W at 1008 mb
Thu morning. The low will then dissipate near 59N 147W Fri
morning. A front will move into the southwestern Gulf Fri
afternoon.

$$

PKZ351-231330-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore North of 57N and West of 144W-
347 PM AKDT Wed May 22 2019

.TONIGHT...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 16 ft.
.THU...SW wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 12 to 17 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.FRI...SW wind up to 15 kt. Seas 7 to 11 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT THROUGH MON...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.

$$

PKZ352-231330-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore South of 57N North of 55N and West of
144W-
347 PM AKDT Wed May 22 2019

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...S wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft.
.THU...SW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 13 to 20 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.FRI...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.SAT THROUGH MON...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.

$$

050 
FZAK61 PAFC 231136
OFFAER

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
336 AM AKDT Thu May 23 2019

Offshore waters forecast for the Gulf of Alaska West of 144W

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ399-240115-
336 AM AKDT Thu May 23 2019
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A 1001 mb low at 57N 154W Thu morning moves to 58N 146W at 1019 mb
by Fri morning and then dissipates. A front moves into the
southwest Gulf by Sat morning.

$$

PKZ351-240115-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore North of 57N and West of 144W-
336 AM AKDT Thu May 23 2019

.TODAY...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 12 to 17 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.FRI...W wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT THROUGH MON...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.

$$

PKZ352-240115-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore South of 57N North of 55N and West of
144W-
336 AM AKDT Thu May 23 2019

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 25 to 35 kt. Seas 14 to 20 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.FRI...W wind 10 to 20 kt becoming S 10 to 25 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 7 to 10 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.SAT THROUGH MON...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.

$$

463 
FZAK61 PAFC 232357
OFFAER

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
357 PM AKDT Thu May 23 2019

Offshore waters forecast for the Gulf of Alaska West of 144W

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ399-241300-
357 PM AKDT Thu May 23 2019
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...

A 1014 mb low at 58N 148W will move to 57N 142W Fri morning at
1021 mb then dissipate. A front will move into the Gulf from the 
southwest Fri afternoon through Sat afternoon.

$$

PKZ351-241300-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore North of 57N and West of 144W-
357 PM AKDT Thu May 23 2019

.TONIGHT...W wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 9 to 15 ft.
.FRI...W wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 10 to 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 8 to 11 ft.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...S wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 11 ft.

$$

PKZ352-241300-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore South of 57N North of 55N and West of
144W-
357 PM AKDT Thu May 23 2019

.TONIGHT...W wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.FRI...S to W wind up to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 10 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 8 to 11 ft.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...S wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
458 PM AKDT Mon May 20 2019

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
Unsettled weather continues today as a surface low pressure system
moving over the Kenai Peninsula spreads rain into the Susitna
Valley and showers over the Peninsula itself.

Another surface low over the Kuskokwim Bay area is working with
modest instability to keep showers moving off the Alaska Peninsula
toward the Kuskokwim Delta...while the sun was out over the area
this morning.

Aloft, the Pacific jet is well south of Alaska south of 50N, with
a sharp trough into the Pacific Northwest. The downwind side of
the trough is providing ample southeast flow over Southeast Alaska
and allowing for spin-ups of new waves working toward Western
Alaska.

Water vapor imagery shows a digging trough moving toward the
Aleutians which will help change the pattern heading into the
midweek.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
Models initialized well this morning and move together with track
and intensity through midday Tuesday. After that, we begin to see
deviation in strength and track, especially with regard to the
strengthening low moving north between 150-160 West. Overnight
model runs had the ECMWF moving the system into Southwest, but the
latest versions are more in alignment in both intensity and
track- keeping the low moving toward Kodiak Island. This, and the
placement of a trough over the Boundary Range later in the week,
will be quite enough for forecasters to focus on in the coming
days.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC... Gusty conditions should taper off this evening with
somewhat variable breezes becoming southwesterly late tonight. VFR
conditions will continue.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2/Mon
evening through Wed afternoon)...

Residual showers associated with a departing upper level
shortwave will gradually continue to diminish this evening. High
pressure at the surface has begun to build over the Gulf
resulting in gusty southeasterly winds through the usual gaps and
passes along the Kenai Peninsula, Turnagain Arm, and Knik Valley
this afternoon. These winds will persist into the early evening
before tapering off overnight tonight.

Generally fair, quiet weather is expected across Southcentral for
Tuesday before a North Pacific low approaches moves into the Gulf
for Wednesday. The leading edge of the front associated with this
low will bring precipitation to Kodiak Island beginning Wednesday
morning before lifting to the northern Gulf coast by Wednesday
afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2...Mon evening
through Wed)... An upper trough crossing the Alaska Range this
afternoon will continue to rotate to the west across Southwest
Alaska through this evening, supporting numerous showers as well
as the bringing potential for an isolated thunderstorm or two.
Showers will diminish late tonight through Tuesday morning, but
with an upper level low remaining offshore over the eastern Bering
and weak troughing extending inland, scattered showers will
develop again Tuesday afternoon and evening. As the upper low
offshore weakens to a trough and rotates further to the west in
response to a strengthening North Pacific frontal system tracking
north towards the Alaska Peninsula, weak ridging building into
Southwest Alaska Tuesday night will end the showers over the area.
Easterly winds ahead of the front will increase through the gaps
and passes in the Alaska and Aleutian Ranges through Wednesday
morning with the frontal system reaching the Bristol Bay area
Wednesday afternoon. The front will shear apart Wednesday night
but continue to bring precipitation to the Southwest Alaska as the
vertically stacked low tracks slowly to the north.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2...Monday
evening through Wed)... A frontal system extends east from a
vertically stacked low along the Aleutian Chain near 180 to a
second low just to the north of Nikolski. The more western low
will track to the southeast tonight swinging the eastern low up
towards the Pribilof Islands. The upper low near the Pribilofs
will remain in that general location and weaken through Tuesday
night while upper level ridging builds slowly east towards the
western Aleutians. A strengthening North Pacific low and
associated frontal system will track towards the Alaska Peninsula
late Tuesday night through Wednesday morning bringing gale-force
winds with it.

&&

.MARINE (Days 3 through 5...Thu through Sat)...

A weakening low will drift north towards Bristol Bay, leaving
mostly benign conditions and broad cyclonic flow over the Bering
and Aleutians Thursday through Saturday. Winds will also diminish
in the Gulf during the day Thursday with a high building in the
North Pacific. That said, expect combined seas around 15 feet in
the central Gulf in swell originating from the weakening low. Seas
will subside late Thursday into Friday. South to southeast flow
will prevail in the Gulf Saturday.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7...Thu through Mon)...

The long term commences with a compact, but weakening low in the
western Gulf shifting northward towards Bristol Bay. The leading
front will bring precipitation to Southwest early Thursday. As it
heads northeastward, precipitation will spread to the northern Gulf
Coast, but likely not make it far inland. The front will be
relatively fast moving, and expect downsloping to limit
precipitation chances in the Anchorage Bowl.

The next low will approach the Central Aleutians late Thursday
into Friday. There is some uncertainty with its strength and
track, but the general consensus is that there will be a wetter
trend for Southwest Friday into Saturday as the associated front
passes over. Deep southerly fetch ahead of the low will support
precipitation in southern mainland Alaska over the weekend. It's a
bit soon to say with confidence where the heaviest precipitation
will be, but we are leaning towards the focus being in
Southcentral. While the operational GFS projects a much deeper low
heading into Bristol Bay, thus keeping more of the energy farther
west, the ECMWF and FV3 continue to maintain a weaker low. This
is diminishing confidence in the GFS solution. So, the current
expectation is for persistent wet weather over Southcentral
Saturday and Sunday. Precipitation will taper off Sunday night
into Monday and another low will develop over the western
Aleutians, potentially bringing unsettled weather to the southern
mainland by mid next week.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...Gale Warnings 150 155 178.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...DS
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...KO
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...JER
MARINE/LONG TERM...MM