Gale Warning 307, NWS Anchorage, AK

756 
FZAK51 PAFC 201157
CWFAER

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
357 AM AKDT Sat Apr 20 2019

Coastal Waters Forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast
up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ197-210045-
357 AM AKDT Sat Apr 20 2019
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A North Pacific low moves into the Southern Gulf at 990 mb Sat night
then it will move to 50 nm west of Middleton Island at 983 mb Sun 
morning. The low will then move inland over the Kenai Peninsula Sun 
night.

$$

PKZ119-210045-
Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare-
357 AM AKDT Sat Apr 20 2019

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind increasing to 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...E wind 30 kt increasing to 40 kt after midnight. Seas
9 ft building to 15 ft after midnight. Rain.
.SUN...SE wind 35 kt becoming S 20 kt in the afternoon. Near the
coast, E wind 40 kt. Seas 18 ft. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.MON...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ120-210045-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point-
357 AM AKDT Sat Apr 20 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...

.TODAY...Variable wind 10 kt becoming NE 15 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft building to 9 ft after
midnight. Rain and snow.
.SUN...E wind 25 kt becoming SW in the afternoon. Seas 13 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.MON...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ121-210045-
Resurrection Bay-
357 AM AKDT Sat Apr 20 2019

.TODAY...Variable wind 10 kt becoming N in the afternoon. Seas 2
ft. Snow.
.TONIGHT...N wind 10 kt increasing to 20 kt after midnight. Seas
2 ft building to 4 ft after midnight. Rain and snow.
.SUN...N wind 20 kt becoming S in the afternoon. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ125-210045-
Prince William Sound-
357 AM AKDT Sat Apr 20 2019

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 25 kt early becoming E 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain and 
snow.
.TONIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft building to 6 ft after
midnight. Rain and snow.
.SUN...E wind 35 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON THROUGH WED...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ126-210045-
Port Valdez-
357 AM AKDT Sat Apr 20 2019

.TODAY...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming E 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 2 ft. Snow and rain.
.TONIGHT...E wind 10 kt becoming NE 15 kt after midnight. Seas 3
ft. Rain and snow.
.SUN...NE wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas
3 ft. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ127-210045-
Valdez Narrows-
357 AM AKDT Sat Apr 20 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SUNDAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Snow.
.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain and snow.
.SUN...N wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ128-210045-
Valdez Arm-
357 AM AKDT Sat Apr 20 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SUNDAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 10 kt increasing to 15 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 3 ft. Snow and rain.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain and snow.
.SUN...NE wind 15 kt becoming SE 25 kt in the afternoon...strongest
near the Sound. Seas 3 ft building to 5 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON THROUGH WED...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ129-210045-
Passage Canal-
357 AM AKDT Sat Apr 20 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY AND SUNDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 25 kt early diminishing to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain 
and snow.
.TONIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Snow and rain.
.SUN...E wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON THROUGH WED...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ130-210045-
West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-
357 AM AKDT Sat Apr 20 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...

.TODAY...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt increasing to 25 kt after midnight. Seas
5 ft building to 9 ft after midnight. Snow.
.SUN...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. Snow.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...W wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ131-210045-
Barren Islands East-
357 AM AKDT Sat Apr 20 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...

.TODAY...Variable wind 10 kt becoming NE 20 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 4 ft. Snow and rain.
.TONIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Snow and rain.
.SUN...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft. Snow.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.MON...W wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ132-210045-
Marmot Island to Sitkinak-
357 AM AKDT Sat Apr 20 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 10 kt early increasing to 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain 
and snow.
.TONIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...W wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ136-210045-
Chiniak Bay-
357 AM AKDT Sat Apr 20 2019

.TODAY...N wind 10 kt increasing to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas
3 ft.
.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ137-210045-
Marmot Bay-
357 AM AKDT Sat Apr 20 2019

.TODAY...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming NE 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 3 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ138-210045-
Shelikof Strait-
357 AM AKDT Sat Apr 20 2019

.TODAY...Variable wind to 15 kt early becoming NE wind 15 kt. Seas 2
ft building to 4 ft in the afternoon.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON...W wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ139-210045-
Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede-
357 AM AKDT Sat Apr 20 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 10 kt becoming N in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt increasing to 25 kt after midnight. Seas
5 ft building to 9 ft after midnight. Snow.
.SUN...N wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft subsiding to 5 ft in the afternoon.
Widespread snow and rain showers.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ140-210045-
Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-
357 AM AKDT Sat Apr 20 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SUNDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 10 kt in the morning becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft building to 7 ft after
midnight. Snow.
.SUN...N wind 25 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 7
ft subsiding to 4 ft in the afternoon. Snow.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...N wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ141-210045-
Kachemak Bay-
357 AM AKDT Sat Apr 20 2019

.TODAY...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt in the evening increasing to 20 kt. Seas 2 
ft. Snow.
.SUN...N wind 20 kt becoming W in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft
building to 6 ft in the afternoon. Snow and rain showers.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

603 
FZAK51 PAFC 202330
CWFAER

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
330 PM AKDT Sat Apr 20 2019

Coastal Waters Forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast
up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ197-211230-
330 PM AKDT Sat Apr 20 2019
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A 992 mb low 270 nm southeast of Sitkinak Sat afternoon moves 
inland over northwest Gulf coast. A 986 mb north Pacific low 
moves to 120 nm south of Yakutat at 977 mb by Mon morning then 
moves into north Gulf coast by Mon afternoon.

$$

PKZ119-211230-
Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare-
330 PM AKDT Sat Apr 20 2019

...STORM WARNING SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...E wind 25 kt increasing to 45 kt after midnight. Seas 9 
ft building to 16 ft after midnight. Widespread rain showers.
.SUN...SE wind 40 kt becoming S 20 kt in the afternoon. Near the
coast, E wind 50 kt becoming SE 40 kt in the afternoon. Seas 19
ft. Widespread rain showers.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft. Rain showers.
.MON...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TUE...S wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ120-211230-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point-
330 PM AKDT Sat Apr 20 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 20 kt increasing to 30 kt after midnight. Seas
5 ft building to 10 ft after midnight. Widespread rain showers.
.SUN...E wind 30 kt becoming SW in the afternoon. Seas 14 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt after midnight.
Seas 12 ft.
.MON...W wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ121-211230-
Resurrection Bay-
330 PM AKDT Sat Apr 20 2019

.TONIGHT...N wind 10 kt increasing to 15 kt after midnight. Seas
3 ft. Widespread rain and snow showers.
.SUN...N wind 20 kt becoming S in the afternoon. Seas 4 ft.
Widespread rain showers.
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE THROUGH THU...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ125-211230-
Prince William Sound-
330 PM AKDT Sat Apr 20 2019

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...E wind increasing to 25 kt. Seas 4 ft building to 6 ft 
after midnight. Widespread rain and snow showers.
.SUN...E wind 45 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 25 kt diminishing to 10 kt after midnight.
Seas 4 ft subsiding to 2 ft after midnight. Rain and snow showers.
.MON...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ126-211230-
Port Valdez-
330 PM AKDT Sat Apr 20 2019

.TONIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain and snow.
.SUN...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain and snow.
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less
than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Widespread snow showers.
.MON...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ127-211230-
Valdez Narrows-
330 PM AKDT Sat Apr 20 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...N wind increasing to 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Widespread rain 
and snow showers.
.SUN...N wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain and snow.
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 20 kt in the evening becoming variable less
than 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. Widespread snow and rain showers.
.MON...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE THROUGH THU...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ128-211230-
Valdez Arm-
330 PM AKDT Sat Apr 20 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE wind increasing to 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Widespread rain 
and snow showers.
.SUN...NE wind 20 kt becoming E 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas 5 ft.
Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt in the evening becoming variable less 
than 10 kt. Seas 4 ft subsiding to 2 ft after midnight. Rain with 
snow.
.MON...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE THROUGH THU...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ129-211230-
Passage Canal-
330 PM AKDT Sat Apr 20 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...E wind increasing to 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Widespread snow 
showers and rain.
.SUN...E wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain and snow.
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 20 kt diminishing to 10 kt after midnight.
Seas 3 ft. Snow and rain showers.
.MON...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ130-211230-
West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-
330 PM AKDT Sat Apr 20 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt becoming NW 25 kt after midnight. Seas 8
ft. Snow.
.SUN...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt after midnight.
Seas 8 ft.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE THROUGH THU...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ131-211230-
Barren Islands East-
330 PM AKDT Sat Apr 20 2019

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Widespread rain and snow
showers.
.SUN...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE...W wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...N wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ132-211230-
Marmot Island to Sitkinak-
330 PM AKDT Sat Apr 20 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt becoming NW 30 kt after midnight. Seas 8 
ft. Rain showers.
.SUN...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE...W wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ136-211230-
Chiniak Bay-
330 PM AKDT Sat Apr 20 2019

.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain and snow.
.SUN...NW wind 20 kt becoming W 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...W wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...W wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ137-211230-
Marmot Bay-
330 PM AKDT Sat Apr 20 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...W wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ138-211230-
Shelikof Strait-
330 PM AKDT Sat Apr 20 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt becoming NW after midnight. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN...W wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.MON AND MON NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE...W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ139-211230-
Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede-
330 PM AKDT Sat Apr 20 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt increasing to 25 kt after midnight. Seas
4 ft building to 8 ft after midnight. Snow.
.SUN...N wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. Snow.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ140-211230-
Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-
330 PM AKDT Sat Apr 20 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 10 kt increasing to 20 kt after midnight. Seas
3 ft building to 5 ft after midnight. Snow.
.SUN...N wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. Snow.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...N wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ141-211230-
Kachemak Bay-
330 PM AKDT Sat Apr 20 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 10 kt increasing to 20 kt after midnight. Seas 2 
ft. Widespread snow showers and rain.
.SUN...N wind 20 kt becoming W 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft
building to 8 ft in the afternoon. Snow with rain.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt after midnight. Seas
8 ft subsiding to 4 ft after midnight.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
531 AM AKDT Fri Apr 19 2019

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

A broad upper level low is centered over the Kuskokwim Delta with
the flow encompassing much of the Bering and Southcentral. Water
vapor satellite imagery displays this low well as a textbook curl
over the Kuskokwim Delta. Several shortwaves are moving about the
flow with the most predominate shortwaves extending along the
Aleutian Islands from Cold Bay west, and a second over the
northern Gulf of Alaska. Cold air continues to wrap around this
low over southwest Alaska, pushing eastward into Southcentral.

At the surface, a deformation zone stretches from the Kenai
Peninsula over Anchorage into the Copper River Basin, producing
widespread snow over those areas. The atmosphere is generally
unstable through the Gulf and Southcentral. This is evident by the
increased lapse rates from the Anchorage 12Z sounding. In
addition, water vapor satellite imagery is detecting convective
cumulus clouds over the central Gulf behind the deformation zone.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
Synoptically, models have come into generally good agreement
through Sunday as the low over the Kuskokwim Delta tracks eastward
toward Southcentral. On Sunday, a Pacific low moves into the
southern Gulf and this system is not well handled by the models.
There is variation not only with the placement of the low center,
but also with the strength of the front it pushes into the
northern Gulf Sun morning. For the low and local effects, the
NamNest was the model of choice.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...Light snow will persist at the terminal for the next few hours,
before improving CIGS and visibilities are expected. Gusty south
winds will continue through the evening, before dropping to less
than 10 knots. Given the fresh snow cover, with afternoon
temperatures climbing into the mid to upper 30s, sublimation
should allow some light fog to persist, likely in the MVFR range.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2...Fri and
Sat)...
The potent upper level low is tracking through Bristol Bay this
morning. It is allowing an impressive shortwave to lift from south
to north across the northern Gulf Coast this morning. This will
keep widespread snow falling across the Cook Inlet up through the
Matanuska and Susitna Valleys this morning. Temperatures should
remain at or below freezing through the morning, so we are
expecting most of the inland precipitation to fall as snow.
Instability is already present on the 12z upper air sounding at
Anchorage and should only increase as we go through the day today.
This could aid in another quick couple of inches of snow to fall
at sea level this morning with higher amounts at elevations above
1,000 feet. The Special Weather Statement remains in effect to
address this.

The upper level low itself will move overhead this afternoon. This
will bring the peak of instability with 500 mb (18,000')
temperatures dropping to near -40C. There is even some jet support
at 30,000' to further support shower development. Thus, we have
added a slight chance of thunderstorms over the Northern Gulf of
AK and gulf coast this afternoon. There will also be some gusty
south-southeast winds across the area in our post-frontal
environment. As usual, these will be strongest in the usual places
such as the Turnagain Arm and the Copper River Valley.

More active weather is in store as we head into the weekend.
Strong southerly flow/upslope over the Northern Gulf will bring a
return to steady precipitation across much of the Prince William
Sound by late tonight. The one area of particular interest in this
pattern is Seward. They typically see fairly high precipitation
amounts with southerly flow and strong instability. While they
could see some snow mix in at times and possibly even some
accumulation, we do expect the April sun and warmer air off
Resurrection Bay to result in mostly rain. A new large low will
develop over the Central Gulf Sat. This system will reinforce the
precipitation along the Gulf Coast (with no perceivable break for
most) and bring another shot of snow to inland areas such as the
Cook Inlet and Mat-Su Valleys.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3/Today
through Sunday)...

An upper level low currently centered near Bristol Bay will
continue to bring isolated snow showers across the region through
this evening. This low will track northward and merge with a
second upper level low on Saturday creating a broad upper trough
over all of western Alaska. Cool temperatures and isolated snow
showers (particularly along the coast) are likely to continue
through the day.

A surface low will track into the Gulf this weekend. It is still
difficult to say exactly how much this will affect Southwest. It
will depend on how much the ridge upstream will amplify due to the
series of shortwave troughs in the Bering. Nonetheless, confidence
is at least moderate that some areas could see accumulating snow
starting early Sunday morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3/Today
through Sunday)...

The overall pattern experienced over the past several days is
expected to continue under an upper level trough. This combined
with light northerly flow (though gusts will be stronger in
channeled areas) will constitute onshore showers and/or flurries
and cooler temperatures over the Aleutians through the weekend.

&&

.MARINE (Days 3 through 5)...The forecast still looks likely for a
low pressure system to make its way up into the Gulf of Alaska on
Saturday, then move northward and linger there through Monday. A
relatively large swath of gales is expected through the Gulf of
Alaska on Saturday and Saturday night. The higher winds will
become confined to the North Gulf Coast by Sunday, but will remain
at gale strength possibly as late as Sunday afternoon. Northerly
winds on the west side of this low will also bring gale force
winds to Cook Inlet Saturday and Sunday. In the Bering Sea and
Aleutians, northerly flow is expected to continue through Monday.
Overall, this will be less than gale force, except for Bristol
Bay and south of the Alaska Peninsula, where winds will reach gale
force mainly on Sunday.
&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...
High pressure continues to hold strong in the Western Aleutians on
Sunday, meaning that most of the weather action will be happening
east and south of the Alaska Range through early next week. The
low that moves into the Gulf of Alaska on Saturday will bring a
front onshore on Sunday, then linger, bringing generally unsettled
weather for Southcentral and the Copper River Basin throughout
the long term period. This system will initially bring some
warmer air into the state, but by Monday, cooler air will
infiltrate from the west and temperatures closer to average or
slightly below will return. On Tuesday it starts to become less
clear as to how this pattern will break down across the region.
Some forecast solutions show a low pressure system developing
south of the Aleutians and then moving into the Gulf. Other
solutions show the high pressure system moving eastward and
bringing better weather to the mainland, while a storm develops in
the western Aleutians and tracks northward. Expect change in the
long term forecast over the next several days as things start to
shake out.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...RA
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...MSO
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...AP
MARINE/LONG TERM...LF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
1213 PM AKDT FRI APR 19 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1150 AM     SNOW             UPPER HILLSIDE          61.10N 149.72W
04/19/2019  M6.0 INCH        ANCHORAGE          AK   PUBLIC

            6 INCHES OVERNIGHT. DANGEROUS ROAD
            CONDITIONS ON THE HILLSIDE AT HIGHER
            ELEVATIONS.

1127 AM     SNOW             BIG LAKE                61.51N 149.95W
04/19/2019  M1.5 INCH        MATANUSKA-SUSITNA  AK   PUBLIC

            REPORTED AT BIG LAKE, AK.

1120 AM     SNOW             LAZY MOUNTAIN           61.61N 149.06W
04/19/2019  M6.5 INCH        MATANUSKA-SUSITNA  AK   PUBLIC

            6.5 INCHES SINCE LAST NIGHT AT 879 FT IN
            LAZY MOUNTAIN COMMUNITY.

0915 AM     SNOW             2 MILES ESE POTTER HILL 61.08N 149.78W
04/19/2019  M4.0 INCH        ANCHORAGE          AK   TRAINED SPOTTER

            4 HEAVY WET SHOW OVERNIGHT, STILL SHOWING.

0830 AM     SNOW             17 NNW HOPE             61.14N 149.77W
04/19/2019  E7.0 INCH        ANCHORAGE          AK   PUBLIC

0824 AM     SNOW             8 NW ANCHORAGE          61.27N 149.33W
04/19/2019  E5.0 INCH        ANCHORAGE          AK   PUBLIC

            STILL SNOWING.

0803 AM     SNOW             NEAR ARCTIC AND 76TH    61.15N 149.91W
04/19/2019  E2.7 INCH        ANCHORAGE          AK   NWS EMPLOYEE

0751 AM     SNOW             18 S KNIK               61.19N 149.78W
04/19/2019  E3.3 INCH        ANCHORAGE          AK   NWS EMPLOYEE

0730 AM     SNOW             NEAR MM. 61.5           61.80N 148.80W
04/19/2019  E2.0 INCH        MATANUSKA-SUSITNA  AK   TRAINED SPOTTER

            STILL SNOWING.

0711 AM     SNOW             EAST ANCHORAGE NEAR LOR 61.15N 149.81W
04/19/2019  E4.0 INCH        ANCHORAGE          AK   PUBLIC

0618 AM     SNOW             GIRDWOOD                60.94N 149.11W
04/19/2019  M10.0 INCH       ANCHORAGE          AK   NWS EMPLOYEE

            SNOW STARTED AFTER 10 PM ON THURSDAY. LIGHT
            TO MODERATE SNOW FALLING AT THE TIME OF THE
            OBSERVATION.

0612 AM     SNOW             O'MALLEY TRAILHEAD      61.12N 149.71W
04/19/2019  M5.0 INCH        ANCHORAGE          AK   TRAINED SPOTTER

            5 IN ACCUMULATION SINCE 6AM THUR NIGHT.
            LIGHT S WIND WITH VISIBILITY LESS THAN 0.25
            MI.

0612 AM     SNOW             NATIONAL WEATHER SERVIC 61.16N 149.98W
04/19/2019  M2.5 INCH        ANCHORAGE          AK   OFFICIAL NWS OBS

            SNOW AMOUNT FROM 4PM THURSDAY THROUGH 4AM
            FRIDAY. SNOWING AT THE TIME OF THE
            OBSERVATION.

0530 AM     SNOW             KLATT RD & OLD SEWARD   61.12N 149.88W
04/19/2019  M2.5 INCH        ANCHORAGE          AK   PUBLIC

1224 PM     SNOW             2 SW CAMPBELL           61.16N 149.94W
04/18/2019  M2.0 INCH        ANCHORAGE          AK   PUBLIC

            2 IN OVER NIGHT WED THROUGH THUR AFTERNOON.
            TOTAL FOR SNOW EVEN WAS 5.25 IN FROM WED AM
            THROUGH THU AFTERNOON.

1204 PM     SNOW             2 SW CAMPBELL           61.16N 149.94W
04/19/2019  M5.0 INCH        ANCHORAGE          AK   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TOTAL OF 5 SO FAR SINCE LAST NIGHT. WET
            SNOW. STILL LIGHTLY SNOWING.

&&