Gale Warning 306, NWS Anchorage, AK

286 
FZAK52 PAFC 151132
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
332 AM AKDT Mon Apr 15 2019

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-160015-
332 AM AKDT Mon Apr 15 2019
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 989 mb low near Adak will move into the North Pacific and 
dissipate Tue morning. High pressure builds in the Bering through 
Wed morning.

$$

PKZ150-160015-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
332 AM AKDT Mon Apr 15 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E wind 10 kt increasing to 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE...N wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...W wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...W wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ155-160015-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
332 AM AKDT Mon Apr 15 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 15 kt becoming N 25 kt in the afternoon. From the
Shumagin Islands E, NE wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...W wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ160-160015-
Bristol Bay-
332 AM AKDT Mon Apr 15 2019

.TODAY...E wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 10 kt becoming NW after midnight. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ165-160015-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
332 AM AKDT Mon Apr 15 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt except NE 15 kt from Port Moller E. Seas
5 ft.
.TUE...N wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ170-160015-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
332 AM AKDT Mon Apr 15 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming NE 25 kt in the 
afternoon. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED THROUGH FRI...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ171-160015-
Unalaska Bay-
332 AM AKDT Mon Apr 15 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TUESDAY...

.TODAY...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming NW 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain showers and snow showers.
.TUE...N wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ172-160015-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
332 AM AKDT Mon Apr 15 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt becoming NE 20 kt after midnight. Seas 7 ft 
building to 11 ft after midnight.
.TUE...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED THROUGH FRI...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ173-160015-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
332 AM AKDT Mon Apr 15 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...

.TODAY...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TONIGHT...N wind 10 kt becoming NE 30 kt after midnight. Seas 6 ft 
building to 10 ft after midnight.
.TUE...N wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED THROUGH FRI...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ174-160015-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
332 AM AKDT Mon Apr 15 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 15 kt becoming E in the afternoon. Seas 10 ft.
.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt increasing to 30 kt after midnight. Seas
12 ft.
.TUE...N wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ175-160015-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
332 AM AKDT Mon Apr 15 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TONIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TUE...N wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 11 
ft.
.TUE NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...N wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI...N wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ176-160015-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
332 AM AKDT Mon Apr 15 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt increasing to 30 kt after midnight. Seas
12 ft.
.TUE...N wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...N wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI...N wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ177-160015-
Adak to Kiska-
332 AM AKDT Mon Apr 15 2019

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 40 kt becoming N 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas
16 ft. Rain with snow.
.TONIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TUE...N wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 10 
ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...N wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI...N wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ178-160015-
Kiska to Attu-
332 AM AKDT Mon Apr 15 2019

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft. Snow showers and rain showers.
.TONIGHT...N wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt after midnight. Seas 11
ft.
.TUE...N wind 20 kt becoming NE 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...N wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...N wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ179-160015-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
332 AM AKDT Mon Apr 15 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. Freezing spray.
.TUE...N wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. Snow showers.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED THROUGH FRI...N wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ180-160015-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
332 AM AKDT Mon Apr 15 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TONIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Freezing spray.
.TUE...N wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Freezing spray.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ181-160015-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
332 AM AKDT Mon Apr 15 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Freezing spray.
.TUE...N wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Freezing spray.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED THROUGH FRI...N wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ185-160015-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
332 AM AKDT Mon Apr 15 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Freezing spray.
.TUE...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Freezing spray.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...N wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...N wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

828 
FZAK52 PAFC 152345
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
345 PM AKDT Mon Apr 15 2019

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-161215-
345 PM AKDT Mon Apr 15 2019
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 983 mb low at 260 nm southeast of Sand Point Mon afternoon will
move to 220 nm southeast of Middleton Island at 990 mb by Tue 
afternoon. A front over the western Aleutians and Bering Mon 
afternoon moves over the central Aleutians and weakens by Tue 
afternoon. High pressure builds in the Bering Wed afternoon.

$$

PKZ150-161215-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
345 PM AKDT Mon Apr 15 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE...N wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...W wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ155-161215-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
345 PM AKDT Mon Apr 15 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 20 kt, except variable 10 kt E of the Shumagin 
Islands. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SAT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ160-161215-
Bristol Bay-
345 PM AKDT Mon Apr 15 2019

.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.WED...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ165-161215-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
345 PM AKDT Mon Apr 15 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...N wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ170-161215-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
345 PM AKDT Mon Apr 15 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU THROUGH SAT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ171-161215-
Unalaska Bay-
345 PM AKDT Mon Apr 15 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft building to 5 ft after midnight. Rain.
.TUE...NE wind 15 kt increasing to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ172-161215-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
345 PM AKDT Mon Apr 15 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 kt becoming NE 25 kt after midnight. Seas 7 ft
building to 11 ft after midnight. Rain.
.TUE...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU THROUGH SAT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ173-161215-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
345 PM AKDT Mon Apr 15 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt becoming NE 25 kt after midnight. Seas 5 ft 
building to 9 ft after midnight.
.TUE...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU THROUGH SAT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ174-161215-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
345 PM AKDT Mon Apr 15 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt increasing to 25 kt after midnight. Seas 12 ft.
Rain.
.TUE...N wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ175-161215-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
345 PM AKDT Mon Apr 15 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt becoming NE 30 kt after midnight. Seas 11 ft.
.TUE...N wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...N wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ176-161215-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
345 PM AKDT Mon Apr 15 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt increasing to 30 kt after midnight. Seas
13 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt after midnight. Seas
8 ft.
.WED...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU...N wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI...N wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ177-161215-
Adak to Kiska-
345 PM AKDT Mon Apr 15 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TUE...N wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...N wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ178-161215-
Kiska to Attu-
345 PM AKDT Mon Apr 15 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TUE...N wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...N wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ179-161215-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
345 PM AKDT Mon Apr 15 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU THROUGH SAT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ180-161215-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
345 PM AKDT Mon Apr 15 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt, except NE 15 kt S of Cape Newenham. Seas 6
ft. Freezing spray.
.TUE...N wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Freezing spray.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Freezing spray.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ181-161215-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
345 PM AKDT Mon Apr 15 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Freezing spray.
.TUE...N wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Freezing spray.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray.
.WED...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU...N wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ185-161215-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
345 PM AKDT Mon Apr 15 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Freezing spray.
.TUE...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing spray.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray.
.WED...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...N wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
430 AM AKDT Sun Apr 14 2019

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

Synoptically, the pattern throughout southern Alaska is fairly
quiet. The jet stream continues to flow in a zonal pattern well
south the Aleutian Islands today at 30,000 ft. A weak vertically
stacked low is positioned near Adak this morning. Cold air is
wrapping around this low with generally north-northwest flow on
the backside. A second weak stacked low sits over the central Gulf
of Alaska. This low is at the base of a trough encompassing much
of Southcentral and the Interior. Between these two upper- level
lows, a negatively tilted ridge has built over much of the Bering.

Weather remains fairly benign. Satellite imagery shows that the
main area of cloud cover exists over the western Bering and along
mountain ranges throughout the southern mainland. Rain showers
this afternoon provided enough moisture, when combined with
dropping temperatures overnight, to cause fog to form throughout
the Copper River Basin and northern Gulf coast.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

Through Tuesday, models are in good agreement.  Monday night,
a low stemming from the Arctic is moving into the southwestern
mainland. This low is well handled by the numerical models at this
point. The first aspect in which models are struggling is a
Pacific low moving into the Gulf of Alaska on Tuesday. The GFS,
NAM and Canadian all depict a surface low moving into the eastern
Gulf Tue morning while the ECMWF has yet to incorporate this
feature.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC... Light and variable winds will persist through Monday
morning. There will be periods of scattered showers throughout
Sunday morning, however, they will be flurries at most.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
The upper level low over the northern Gulf will drift very slowly
south and east through Monday night. In general dry conditions are
expected over Southcentral. However, some showers are possible
over the area during the next couple of days as the flow aloft
remains weakly cyclonic. Most of these showers will be over the
western Kenai Peninsula through tonight, and the Copper River
Basin through Monday. These will be somewhat diurnally enhanced,
and more prevalent over the mountains.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...

Weak low pressure persists across the Gulf and along the central
Aleutians into the beginning of the week. This keeps the Southwest
coastal areas under an offshore regime with light and variable
winds inland. An upper level disturbance over the western interior
dives across the Kuskokwim Valley to Bristol Bay through this
afternoon. A few showers are expected to develop mainly along the
western Alaska Range and Aleutian Range...however there is some
uncertainty on the surface convergence which might be further west
than currently expected. A quick look a King Salmon's sounding
this morning supports brief small hail and downburst activity
(gusty winds where storms develop). Monday should be drier as a
surface ridge limits precipitation through the afternoon, then
expect increased chances for snow and rain through Wednesday as an
arctic cold front slides southward along the west coast becoming
nearly stationary over the Kuskokwim region on Wednesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...

A broad area of low pressure across the central Aleutians remains
nearly stationary through late Monday before taking a southward
turn Monday night. Increased winds across the Bering on Monday
into Tuesday as the surface low re-organizes with a significant
short wave diving south over the western Bering before wrapping
around the core of the low. Cold air advects across the Bering on
Tuesday as an Arctic low tracks south along the western coast. A
few snow showers are possible across the eastern Bering as
shortwaves propagate away from the parent low.

&&

.MARINE (Days 3 through 5...Tue through Thu)...
Over the Bering Sea...confidence is high in small craft northerly
winds to start the period, primarily in the Eastern Bering. As
high pressure builds in from the west, winds should slowly
decrease leaving very few concerns for the area.

Gulf of AK...the period will start out relatively quiet with high
confidence in sub- small craft cyclonic (counter-clockwise) flow.
As we move towards Thu, models diverge drastically with a strong
low moving quickly from south to north into the area. The GFS is
the strongest solution advertising a mid 970 mb low with gale-
force winds. However, the GFS is an outlier and the consensus is
to take this low further to the east and keep it slightly weaker.
Thus the forecast will continue to advertise small-craft winds or
less for winds. Because of these model differences, forecast
confidence remains low to moderate.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7...Tue through Sat)...
As is often the case in this timeframe, the extended forecast is
starting to become slightly more certain as it draws closer to the
short term. Early in the period, confidence has improved markedly in
a weak deformation band setting up over the interior portions of
SW Alaska on Tue. All models are advertising a potent upper level
shortwave dropping in from the Bering Strait area. With weak
cyclonic flow swinging moisture in from the Gulf of AK, this will
set the stage for some potential rain and/or snow Tue- Wed. There
is still some slight uncertainty regarding the exact timing of
the upper level wave. So for this forecast package, we have only
trended PoPs up rather than putting in a widespread area of
likelys. The other important note with this pattern would be a
return to much cooler (more seasonable) temperatures for the
middle portion of the week, primarily from Aniak west.

Towards the Gulf of AK, things look to remain fairly quiet early
in the period. There will be a weak low creating cyclonic
circulation. Where exactly that low sets up and exactly how strong
that flow is remains in flux. Models are trending slightly further
east and weaker, so this forecast moves ever-so-slightly in that
direction. This could also lead to another day of mostly sunny
skies for Southcentral.

As we move into the latter half of the week, model disparity jumps
up significantly. Over the Gulf of AK, all the models agree a
strong low moves from south to north by early Thu. However, the
GFS is an outlier with this system as it is by far the strongest
and further west. Thus, we are trending the forecast slightly
further to the east for the low track using some of the ensemble
model guidance. Either way, it looks like the potential for more
winds and rain for coastal areas. Over the Bering, a closed upper
level high builds in during this time. This will leave the Western
Bering relatively quiet, but will serve to dig out a longwave
trough over SW AK. That type of pattern supports unsettled weather
with cooler temperatures over SW with cloudy and showery
conditions extending over to Southcentral AK.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...Gale Warning: 178.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...RA
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...BL
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...KH
MARINE/LONG TERM...MSO