Gale Warning 3, NWS Anchorage, AK

531 
FZAK62 PAFC 040055
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
355 PM AKST Thu Jan 3 2019

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-041415-
355 PM AKST Thu Jan 3 2019
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 999 mb low at 58N 163W Thu afternoon moves into Southwest 
Alaska and dissipates by Sat morning. A 975 mb low at 48N 173E
Fri morning moves to 51N 178E at 966 mb by Fri afternoon and then
moves to 57N 178E at 956 mb by Sat afternoon. Its front spreads to
the eastern Aleutians through Sat afternoon.

$$

PKZ411-041415-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
355 PM AKST Thu Jan 3 2019

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 15 to 25 kt becoming E 20 to 35 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 7 to 11 ft. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft. Rain showers
with snow showers.
.SAT...N wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 15 to 23 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 15 to 23 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft.
.MON...S wind 25 kt. Seas 16 to 23 ft.
.TUE...E wind up to 15 kt. Seas 9 to 15 ft.

$$

PKZ412-041415-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
355 PM AKST Thu Jan 3 2019

...STORM WARNING FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI...S wind up to 15 kt becoming SE 10 to 25 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind 25 to 40 kt becoming E 35 to 50 kt after
midnight. Seas 7 to 12 ft building to 10 to 18 ft after midnight.
Rain showers with snow.
.SAT...SE wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 15 to 20 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 16 to 25 ft.
.SUN...S wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 15 to 23 ft.
.MON...SE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft.
.TUE...E wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 11 to 16 ft.

$$

PKZ413-041415-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
355 PM AKST Thu Jan 3 2019

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...S wind 10 to 25 kt becoming SE 25 to 40 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 6 to 11 ft. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft. Rain and snow.
.SAT...SW wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 13 to 28 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 19 to 29 ft.
.SUN...S wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 14 to 22 ft.
.MON...S wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft.
.TUE...NE wind up to 20 kt. Seas 9 to 15 ft.

$$

PKZ414-041415-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
355 PM AKST Thu Jan 3 2019

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind 15 to 30 kt increasing to 25 to 40 kt after
midnight. Seas 5 to 10 ft. Rain.
.SAT...SE wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft.
.SUN...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft.
.MON...E wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 9 to 12 ft.

$$

679 
FZAK62 PAFC 041241
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
341 AM AKST Fri Jan 4 2019

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-050215-
341 AM AKST Fri Jan 4 2019
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 978 mb low at 48N 174E and a 982 mb low at 52N 166E merge to 
form a 961 mb low near 55N 176E for Sat morning which then moves 
to 59N 175E at 971 mb by Sun morning. Its front moves over the 
Aleutians and Bering through Sun morning. A 969 mb low at 51N 173E
and its front approach the Western Aleutians for Sun morning.

$$

PKZ411-050215-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
341 AM AKST Fri Jan 4 2019

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 15 to 30 kt becoming E 25 to 40 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 8 ft building to 9 to 14 ft in the afternoon.
Rain.
.TONIGHT...E wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft. Rain and snow.
.SAT...S wind 20 to 35 kt becoming SW 30 to 45 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 14 to 29 ft. Snow.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 14 to 27 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...S wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft.
.TUE...S wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 10 to 14 ft.

$$

PKZ412-050215-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
341 AM AKST Fri Jan 4 2019

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 10 to 20 kt becoming SE 15 to 30 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 7 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft building to 11 to
19 ft after midnight. Rain with snow.
.SAT...SE wind 30 to 45 kt diminishing to 20 to 30 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 15 to 20 ft. Rain and snow.
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 15 to 27 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...S wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 15 to 25 ft.
.TUE...S wind up to 20 kt. Seas 10 to 16 ft.

$$

PKZ413-050215-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
341 AM AKST Fri Jan 4 2019

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 15 to 30 kt increasing to 25 to 40 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 6 ft building to 8 to 13 ft in the afternoon.
Rain.
.TONIGHT...S wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft. Rain.
.SAT...SW wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 13 to 28 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 18 to 29 ft.
.SUN...S wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 16 to 25 ft.
.MON...SW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 14 to 20 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 10 to 15 ft.

$$

PKZ414-050215-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
341 AM AKST Fri Jan 4 2019

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 15 kt becoming S in the afternoon. Seas 6 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 to 30 kt increasing to 25 to 40 kt after
midnight. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.SAT...S wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft. Rain and snow.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...S wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft.
.TUE...S wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.

$$

569 
FZAK62 PAFC 042358
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
258 PM AKST Fri Jan 4 2019

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-051415-
258 PM AKST Fri Jan 4 2019
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 969 mb low at 53N 176E moves to 57N 170E at 968 mb Sat
afternoon. The low then exits the Bering to the northwest Sun
morning. A second 962 mb low moves to 51N 171E Sat night and then
moves to 56N 170E at 957 mb Sun afternoon.

$$

PKZ411-051415-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
258 PM AKST Fri Jan 4 2019

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N of 56N, E wind 35 to 50 kt. S of 56N, E wind 30 to 45 
kt becoming W 10 to 25 kt after midnight. Seas 12 to 20 ft. Rain and 
snow.
.SAT...N of 56N, E wind 25 to 35 kt. S of 56N, SW wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas
14 to 29 ft. Snow.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 14 to 27 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 14 to 21 ft.
.MON...S wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 15 to 21 ft.
.TUE...S wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 10 to 14 ft.
.WED...SE wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ412-051415-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
258 PM AKST Fri Jan 4 2019

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft building to 11 to
19 ft after midnight. Rain with snow.
.SAT...SE wind 30 to 45 kt diminishing to 20 to 30 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 15 to 20 ft. Rain and snow.
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 15 to 27 ft.
.SUN...S wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 15 to 22 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 16 to 25 ft.
.MON...S wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 15 to 23 ft.
.TUE...S wind up to 20 kt. Seas 10 to 16 ft.
.WED...NE wind up to 15 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft.

$$

PKZ413-051415-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
258 PM AKST Fri Jan 4 2019

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft. Rain.
.SAT...SW wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 13 to 28 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 25 to 40 kt diminishing to 20 to 30 kt after
midnight. Seas 18 to 29 ft.
.SUN...S wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 16 to 25 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 17 to 25 ft.
.MON...SW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 14 to 20 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...SW wind up to 20 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.

$$

PKZ414-051415-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
258 PM AKST Fri Jan 4 2019

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 to 30 kt increasing to 25 to 40 kt after
midnight. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.SAT...S wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft. Rain and snow.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft.
.MON...S wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft.
.TUE...S wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.WED...W wind up to 15 kt. Seas 6 to 10 ft.

$$

374 
FZAK62 PAFC 051255
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
355 AM AKST Sat Jan 5 2019

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-060215-
355 AM AKST Sat Jan 5 2019
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A 963 mb low at 55N 175E moves to Northern Kamchatka and
dissipates Sun morning. Its front pushes into the Gulf of Alaska
by Mon morning. A 957 mb low near 49N 171E moves to 53N 171E at 
949 mb Sat afternoon and shifts to 57N 166E at 952 mb for Mon 
morning. Its front drives to the Eastern Aleutians by Mon morning.

$$

PKZ411-060215-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
355 AM AKST Sat Jan 5 2019

...STORM WARNING SUNDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 15 to 29 ft. 
Rain showers and snow.
.TONIGHT...S wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 16 to 28 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 16 to 24 ft. Rain and snow.
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 22 to 25 ft.
.MON...S wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 15 to 23 ft.
.TUE...S wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 12 to 15 ft.
.WED...SE wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 8 to 11 ft.

$$

PKZ412-060215-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
355 AM AKST Sat Jan 5 2019

...STORM WARNING SUNDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 30 to 45 kt becoming S 20 to 30 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 14 to 21 ft. Rain and snow.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 15 to 25 ft.
.SUN...S wind 20 to 35 kt becoming SE 35 to 50 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 15 to 23 ft. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 16 to 24 ft.
.MON THROUGH WED...S wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft.

$$

PKZ413-060215-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
355 AM AKST Sat Jan 5 2019

...STORM WARNING SUNDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 14 to 26 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 17 to 25 ft.
.SUN...S wind 40 to 55 kt. Seas 15 to 26 ft. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 15 to 23 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...SW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft.
.WED...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft.

$$

PKZ414-060215-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
355 AM AKST Sat Jan 5 2019

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...S wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft. Snow and rain.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 9 to 16 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 10 to 20 kt increasing to 15 to 30 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 10 to 15 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 8 to 16 ft.
.MON THROUGH WED...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
519 PM AKST Wed Jan 2 2019

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
There is a broad upper low over the Bering Sea into northeast
Russia. The Canadian west coast ridge has been temporarily
"squashed", and broad west-southwest flow exists from the
western Bering through the Panhandle. There are a number of
short-wave troughs associated with the Bering low. One of these
is moving slowly northeast through Southcentral this afternoon.
This trough is pushing colder air through southern Alaska. It is
also producing some snow, mainly north of Anchorage. A surface
low associated with this trough is over western Prince William
Sound and this is producing fairly strong winds over the northern
Gulf, southern Cook Inlet and Kodiak Island. Another trough is
over the eastern Bering Sea, with an associated surface low over
the north-central Bering with a front stretching east- southeast
to the Alaska Peninsula. There is another trough and surface low
just north of the western Aleutians.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
Through Friday afternoon, the numerical models are in good
agreement on the over-all pattern. They also agree fairly well on
the precipitation and surface features over Southcentral through
Thursday afternoon, with just some timing differences. The story
is a little different over the Bering, with the models still
struggling with a number of small scale features. These
discrepancies then slowly work their way east into the southern
Alaska mainland beginning Thursday. There are also some
differences on where they bring up a strong surface low into the
Aleutians/southern Bering on Friday.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...VFR conditions are expected, however brief MVFR conditions
are possible this evening in snow showers. Winds will taper down
this evening and then be light through the remainder of the TAF
period.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
The upper level trough swinging from Southwest Alaska into
Southcentral Alaska this evening will continue snow showers over
the Susitna Valley, Talkeetna and Chugach Mountains and Matanuska
Valley. As the upper trough continues east into the Copper River
Basin, the snow showers will follow along with it, with the colder
and drier air pushing in behind it tapering off the snow showers
further to the west. The breezy west to southwesterly winds across
the area this afternoon and evening will gradually diminish
through the early morning hours as pressure gradients ease in
response to a small ridge building in behind the trough. Offshore
flow will increase Thursday night through Friday as a deep cold
pool becomes well entrenched in the Copper River Basin. A cold,
dry air mass will remain in place across Southcentral Alaska
through at least Saturday.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: Today
through Saturday)...

After generally clear skies and colder air have moved in over
most of Southwest today, a weak shortwave trough ahead of a ridge
currently over the eastern Bering will move in overnight tonight,
bringing scattered snow showers to areas throughout the Kuskokwim
Valley through Thursday. As this shortwave continues to move
further inland to the northeast by Friday, the subsequent ridge
arrives for Saturday, allowing for a clearing trend as winds
remain predominately offshore. A few areas across Southwest may
see some potential fog development Fri night into Sat morning,
especially in places where the winds fall slack and skies scatter
out. Toward the end of the forecast period, southerly flow
returns as an occluded front associated with a Bering low
approaches the Southwest coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3:
Today through Saturday)...

A word to sum up the general pattern over the Bering would be
disorganized. Several areas of cyclonic flow are spinning adrift
of a weakening main low centered north of the Pribilofs. By
Thursday night, this low dissipates and moves north, making room
for an approaching Kamchatka low to move over the western
Aleutians. Another round of southerly flow is inevitable across
the western and central Aleutians as the leading edge of the front
accompanying the low traverses eastward, quickly occluding over
the eastern Aleutians by Sat afternoon. As the front reaches the
Pribilofs, blowing snow and possible blizzard conditions may
ensue for Saturday. Winds around the immediate low center will
reach gale-force with embedded swaths of storm-force winds seen
across the western Aleutians and Bering Friday night and
Saturday.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7)...

Beginning the extended period forecast on Saturday evening, there
will be a strong storm force low over the western Bering Sea and
associated upper low with a developing high amplitude blocking
high over Eastern Siberia. Over Southern Alaska, there will be a
series of weak upper level waves merging into a consolidated
trough. With time, the upper trough over the mainland will deepen
in response to the building blocking high over the high latitudes,
so this will keep a storm track over the Bering Sea with cold and
dry high pressure forming over Southern Alaska. This pattern will
last through Tuesday until high uncertainty develops with the
development and placement of an arctic low over Alaska. The ECWMF
and GFS both show a low, but the GFS favors a quicker transition
to southwest progressive flow from the Pacific which would
eventually bring in more precip threats as early as Tuesday
whereas the ECMWF favors a much colder and longer lasting dry
spell, through at least Wednesday. Due to the anomalous ECMWF
upper level pattern, and overall high uncertainty with developing
arctic lows, this forecast will trend in more precip threats
beginning Tuesday. Precipitation threats will likely be all snow
given the cold air which will be in place, but for now, there is
no strong signal.

&&

.MARINE (Days 3 through 5)...

Beginning the extended period marine forecast, the main impacts
will be a developing storm force low over the western Bering Sea
on Friday. The low track is now highly certain with a general
track moving along and then north of Attu Island. The front will
extend northward into the Bering on Saturday and may reach storm
force as the low tracks north. With an easterly component to the
winds, heavy freezing spray may become an issue closer to the ice
edge.

Another powerful storm force low is on track to move into the
western Bering again on Sunday and Sunday night. Confidence with
this second low is quite good, and model trends have remained
consistent.

In the Gulf of Alaska waters, with the storm track over the Bering
Sea, there is high confidence that winds will remain well below
gale force through the period.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...Gales...120 127 130 131 139 141.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...BL
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...JR
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...KVP/KO
MARINE/LONG TERM...JA