Gale Warning 294, NWS Anchorage, AK

550 
FZAK52 PAFC 020002
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
402 PM AKDT Mon Apr 1 2019

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-021245-
402 PM AKDT Mon Apr 1 2019
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 987 mb low 500 nm south of Nikolski and a 974 mb low 345 nm
south of Attu will merge to form a 970 mb 345 nm southwest of Attu for
Wed morning. Its front pushes across the Aleutians into the 
Southwest Bering through Wed afternoon. A 972 mb North Pacific low
moves to 460 nm south of Nikolski by Wed afternoon.

$$

PKZ150-021245-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
402 PM AKDT Mon Apr 1 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE...E wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ155-021245-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
402 PM AKDT Mon Apr 1 2019

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...E wind 40 kt except E 30 kt from the Shumagin Islands E. 
Seas 18 ft.
.TUE...E wind 40 kt diminishing to 30 kt in the afternoon, except E
wind 25 kt from the Shumagin Islands E. Seas 19 ft. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft. Rain.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.THU...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ160-021245-
Bristol Bay-
402 PM AKDT Mon Apr 1 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...E wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ165-021245-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
402 PM AKDT Mon Apr 1 2019

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...E wind 35 kt, except 25 kt E of Port Moller. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE...E wind 35 kt diminishing to 25 kt in the afternoon, except E
wind 25 kt from Port Moller E. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ170-021245-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
402 PM AKDT Mon Apr 1 2019

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...E wind 40 kt. Seas 13 ft. Rain.
.TUE...E wind 40 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt after midnight. Seas
11 ft.
.WED...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU THROUGH SAT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ171-021245-
Unalaska Bay-
402 PM AKDT Mon Apr 1 2019

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...E wind increasing to 40 kt by midnight. Seas 6 ft. Rain.
.TUE...E wind 35 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ172-021245-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
402 PM AKDT Mon Apr 1 2019

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...E wind 40 kt. Seas 20 ft. Rain.
.TUE...E wind 35 kt. Seas 20 ft. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft. Rain.
.WED...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.THU...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ173-021245-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
402 PM AKDT Mon Apr 1 2019

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 35 kt. Seas 17 ft. Rain.
.TUE...E wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 35 kt diminishing to S 25 kt after midnight. 
Seas 16 ft.
.WED...S wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.WED NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU THROUGH SAT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ174-021245-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
402 PM AKDT Mon Apr 1 2019

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...E wind 40 kt. Seas 19 ft. Rain.
.TUE...E wind 35 kt. Seas 18 ft. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt after midnight. Seas 
19 ft.
.WED...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.WED NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.THU...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.FRI...N wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ175-021245-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
402 PM AKDT Mon Apr 1 2019

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft. Rain.
.TUE...E wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.WED...S wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ176-021245-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
402 PM AKDT Mon Apr 1 2019

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 35 kt diminishing to 25 kt after midnight. Seas
18 ft. Rain.
.TUE...E wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 22 ft.
.WED...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.THU...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ177-021245-
Adak to Kiska-
402 PM AKDT Mon Apr 1 2019

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 40 kt Bering side, E 30 kt Pacific side. Seas 16 ft.
Rain.
.TUE...E wind 25 kt. Seas 18 ft. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft Bering side... 20 ft
Pacific side. Rain and snow.
.WED...S wind 25 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.THU...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ178-021245-
Kiska to Attu-
402 PM AKDT Mon Apr 1 2019

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...E wind 40 kt. Seas 18 ft. Rain.
.TUE...E wind 35 kt diminishing to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 18 ft.
Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 17 ft. Rain and snow.
.WED...S wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 22 ft.
.THU...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.FRI...N wind 15 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ179-021245-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
402 PM AKDT Mon Apr 1 2019

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 25 kt increasing to 35 kt after midnight. Seas 12 ft.
.TUE...E wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 35 kt diminishing to 25 kt after midnight. Seas 
15 ft. Rain.
.WED...E wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ180-021245-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
402 PM AKDT Mon Apr 1 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE...E wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED...E wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU THROUGH SAT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ181-021245-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
402 PM AKDT Mon Apr 1 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 15 kt increasing to 25 kt after midnight. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...E wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU THROUGH SAT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ185-021245-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
402 PM AKDT Mon Apr 1 2019

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE...E wind 40 kt, except E 30 kt E of Saint Matthew Island. Seas 
15 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt E of Saint Matthew Island... NE wind 40 
kt W of Saint Matthew Island. Seas 18 ft.
.WED...E wind 35 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.WED NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.THU...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

559 
FZAK52 PAFC 021107
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
307 AM AKDT Tue Apr 2 2019

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-030000-
307 AM AKDT Tue Apr 2 2019
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 974 mb low 300 nm South of Attu loops to 430 nm West of Attu at
971 mb by Thu morning. Its front wraps over the Aleutians and 
Bering through Thu morning.

$$

PKZ150-030000-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
307 AM AKDT Tue Apr 2 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.WED...E wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SAT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ155-030000-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
307 AM AKDT Tue Apr 2 2019

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E wind 40 kt except E 30 kt from the Shumagin Islands E.
Seas 19 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft. Rain.
.WED...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SAT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ160-030000-
Bristol Bay-
307 AM AKDT Tue Apr 2 2019

.TODAY...E wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...E wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ165-030000-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
307 AM AKDT Tue Apr 2 2019

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E wind 35 kt except E 30 kt from Port Moller E. 
Seas 9 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...E wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ170-030000-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
307 AM AKDT Tue Apr 2 2019

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E wind 40 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.WED...S wind 15 kt in the morning becoming variable 10 kt. 
Seas 7 ft.
.WED NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU THROUGH SAT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ171-030000-
Unalaska Bay-
307 AM AKDT Tue Apr 2 2019

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E wind 40 kt diminishing to 30 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 5 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt after midnight. 
Seas 4 ft subsiding to 2 ft after midnight. Widespread rain showers.
.WED...S wind 10 kt in the morning becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ172-030000-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
307 AM AKDT Tue Apr 2 2019

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E wind 40 kt diminishing to 30 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 21 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt becoming S 15 kt after midnight. 
Seas 15 ft.
.WED...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...N wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ173-030000-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
307 AM AKDT Tue Apr 2 2019

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.WED...S wind 20 kt in the morning becoming variable 10 kt. 
Seas 10 ft.
.WED NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI...N wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ174-030000-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
307 AM AKDT Tue Apr 2 2019

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E wind 35 kt. Seas 18 ft. Rain showers.
.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.WED...S wind 15 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.WED NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...N wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ175-030000-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
307 AM AKDT Tue Apr 2 2019

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft. Rain showers.
.TONIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.WED...S wind 25 kt becoming SE 15 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 11 ft.
.WED NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI...N wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ176-030000-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
307 AM AKDT Tue Apr 2 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.WED...S wind 20 kt in the morning becoming variable 10 kt. 
Seas 18 ft.
.WED NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.THU...W wind 20 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ177-030000-
Adak to Kiska-
307 AM AKDT Tue Apr 2 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft. Rain showers.
.TONIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 19 ft. Rain showers and snow
showers.
.WED...S wind 25 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.THU...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.FRI...N wind 15 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ178-030000-
Kiska to Attu-
307 AM AKDT Tue Apr 2 2019

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E wind 35 kt. Seas 18 ft. Rain showers.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 16 ft. Rain and snow showers.
.WED...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft. Rain showers and snow showers.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.THU...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.FRI...N wind 15 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ179-030000-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
307 AM AKDT Tue Apr 2 2019

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E wind 40 kt. Seas 16 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...E wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.WED...SE wind 25 kt becoming E 15 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 10 ft. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ180-030000-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
307 AM AKDT Tue Apr 2 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED...E wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU THROUGH SAT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ181-030000-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
307 AM AKDT Tue Apr 2 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED...E wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU THROUGH SAT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ185-030000-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
307 AM AKDT Tue Apr 2 2019

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 30 kt E of Saint Matthew Island...E 40 kt W of
Saint Matthew Island. Seas 15 ft.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 30 kt E of Saint Matthew Island...E 40 kt W of
Saint Matthew Island. Seas 18 ft.
.WED...E of Saint Matthew Island, E wind 30 kt. W of Saint Matthew
Island, E wind 40 kt diminishing to 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas
18 ft. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.THU THROUGH SAT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
521 PM AKDT Sun Mar 31 2019

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

The strong Arctic high, at both the surface and aloft, remains
positioned over interior Alaska today stretching from the Al-Can
border to the western mainland. This persistent high is keeping
much of the southern mainland dry, clear and warm. Visible
satellite shows most of the southwestern mainland, the northern
Gulf of Alaska and Southcentral cloud free. The 12Z upper-air
sounding from Anchorage further depicts the dry nature of the
atmosphere. Within the flow around the high, a short wave is
passing over the eastern Bering stemming from the North Pacific.
The combination of the flow around the shortwave, and the
rotation around the high is enhancing southeasterly flow. Thus
advecting warm, moist air over the southwestern Gulf, AK- Pen and
the Aleutian Chain. The influx of moisture is creating cloudy
conditions through the much of the southwest, while scattered
rainfall is occurring over the central and eastern Aleutians.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

Models are in good agreement through early this week as they
continue to maintain the high over the mainland, and transition
the shortwave out of the Bering on Sunday. In addition, they are
consistently depicting a shortwave, moving up from the North
Pacific, over the western Aleutians on Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...VFR conditions and light winds will persist.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
The strong upper level high, currently centered over Mainland
Alaska will shift slowly to the southeast through Monday before
weakening to a flat ridge over the Gulf through Tuesday. A rather
flat pressure gradient over the area today bringing light general
winds, will allow for the development of localized sea breezes in
the afternoon. Troughing will develop along the northern Gulf
coast tonight, shifting winds to light offshore. Weak offshore
flow will persist Monday and then gradually increase Tuesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3/Sunday
through Tuesday)...

Strong high pressure over the southern mainland is hold at bay the
clouds and precipitation associated with a upper level short wave
trough/low that is moving north through the eastern Bering Sea
this evening. The upper trough will push inland along the Bering
Sea coast late tonight allowing some cloud cover spread in along
the immediate coastal locations Monday. An upper level ridge of
high pressure will follow in behind this trough Tuesday. As we
move into Wednesday an upper level trough swings south across the
interior that will push colder lower level 850 mb air into the
Kuskokwim Valley. This will result in cooling temperatures, back
to the normal temperatures for this time of year, Wednesday. The
models have been very consistent with this pattern and we do not
plan on many changes to the forecast in the short term.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3/Sunday
through Tuesday).

Over the eastern bering we will see the upper level tough/low move
through this evening followed by an upper level ridge. A low over
the northwest Bering with a trough extending through the central
Aleutians essentially stalls and weakens as another strong low
approaches the western Aleutians Monday afternoon. Monday with a
broad swath of gale force wind in advance of it, extending through
the Pribilofs.

&&

.MARINE (Days 3 through 5/Wednesday through Friday)...

Gulf of Alaska...Confidence remains high for benign conditions
in the Gulf of Alaska waters through Friday.

Bering Sea/Aleutians...Confidence is greater now that Wednesday
will likely see Gales in the northern Bering/St Matthew Island
region Wednesday as well as gales in the western Aleutians.
Thursday and Friday will likely see large swaths of near gale
force wind from the Pribilofs north in the Bering Sea. Timing the
passing of the fronts/lows is the main challenge and this will be
hashed out in the forecasts.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7/Thursday through Sunday)...

The long-term period begins on Thursday with the deep upper level
trough from the Canadian Yukon and Northwest Territories extending
into the eastern interior. At the end of this trough a cutoff
upper level low is expected to form. More significantly is the
deep cold air that is pushing into the southern mainland and more
specifically the Copper River Basin. The models diverge on how far
west the closed upper low moves. This brings in different
solutions to the sensible weather, thus an increased uncertainty
to the forecast as we move into the weekend. This will bear
watching as the combination of cold air and potentially moisture
moving in from the east and the upper level flow becoming more
southwest could be the ideal set up for a snow event for south
central Alaska and the Copper River Basin Friday through Sunday.

The models are in some agreement on moving the upper low to the
Bering coast Sunday coupled with low pressure moving north across
the southwest mainland. This has the potential for snow across
Bristol Bay north into the middle Kuskokwim Valley to the Alaska
Range Sunday.

Over the Bering Sea and Aleutians strong upper level high pressure
over the Russian far east coupled with a low moving north across
the eastern Aleutians sets up a broad area for east northeast to
west southwest flow across much of the Bering Sea by Friday. The
surface low moves off to the east over the southwest mainland as
weak surface high pressure is established over the central
Aleutians and Bering Sea Saturday and Sunday. Another low moves
into the picture out over the western Aleutians Sunday.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...Gale 155 165 170-175 177 178 179.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...RA
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...ML
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...SA
MARINE/LONG TERM...SA