Gale Warning 260, NWS Anchorage, AK

258 
FZAK52 PAFC 172343
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
343 PM AKDT Sun Mar 17 2019

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-181300-
343 PM AKDT Sun Mar 17 2019
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A 979 mb low 370 nm south of Shemya Sun afternoon moves to 275 nm 
south of Dutch Harbor at 980 mb by Mon afternoon. The associated 
front moves over the central Aleutians and Bristol Bay through Tue 
afternoon. A new front approaches the western Aleutians by Tue 
afternoon.

$$

PKZ150-181300-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
343 PM AKDT Sun Mar 17 2019

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.MON...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.MON NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE...N wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.WED...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.THU...E wind 15 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.FRI...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 15 ft.

$$

PKZ155-181300-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
343 PM AKDT Sun Mar 17 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON...Variable wind 10 kt becoming E 20 kt in the afternoon. From
the Shumagin Islands E, NW wind 15 kt in the morning becoming
variable 10 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 25 kt except E 20 kt from the Shumagin Islands
E. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.FRI...W wind 15 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ160-181300-
Bristol Bay-
343 PM AKDT Sun Mar 17 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Freezing spray.
.MON...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Freezing spray.
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 10 kt becoming NE after midnight. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED...E wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ165-181300-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
343 PM AKDT Sun Mar 17 2019

.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...N wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing spray.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED...N wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU...N wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ170-181300-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
343 PM AKDT Sun Mar 17 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...E wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED...N wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...W wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ171-181300-
Unalaska Bay-
343 PM AKDT Sun Mar 17 2019

.TONIGHT...NW wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less
than
10 kt. Seas 3 ft. Patchy freezing fog.
.MON...E wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. Patchy freezing fog.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft building to 4 ft after
midnight.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED...N wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ172-181300-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
343 PM AKDT Sun Mar 17 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 kt becoming E after midnight. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...E wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft. Snow and rain.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.FRI...W wind 20 kt. Seas 16 ft.

$$

PKZ173-181300-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
343 PM AKDT Sun Mar 17 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt becoming E 20 kt after midnight.
Seas 5 ft.
.MON...E wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.WED...N wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...W wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ174-181300-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
343 PM AKDT Sun Mar 17 2019

...GALE WARNING MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 kt becoming E 30 kt after midnight. Seas 7
ft.
.MON...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 17 ft. Snow and rain.
.TUE...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.WED...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...W wind 20 kt. Seas 19 ft.

$$

PKZ175-181300-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
343 PM AKDT Sun Mar 17 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED...N wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI...W wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ176-181300-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
343 PM AKDT Sun Mar 17 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.MON NIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.WED...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...W wind 20 kt. Seas 22 ft.

$$

PKZ177-181300-
Adak to Kiska-
343 PM AKDT Sun Mar 17 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON...N wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.MON NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft Bering side... 14 ft Pacific
side.
.TUE...N wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED...S wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.THU...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 23 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 16 ft.

$$

PKZ178-181300-
Kiska to Attu-
343 PM AKDT Sun Mar 17 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Freezing spray.
.MON...N wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft. Patchy freezing fog.
.TUE...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED...S wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 15 ft.

$$

PKZ179-181300-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
343 PM AKDT Sun Mar 17 2019

.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft. Patchy freezing fog.
.MON...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft. Patchy freezing fog.
.MON NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.WED...N wind 40 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.THU...N wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ180-181300-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
343 PM AKDT Sun Mar 17 2019

.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing spray.
.MON...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing spray.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray.
.TUE...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ181-181300-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
343 PM AKDT Sun Mar 17 2019

.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft. Patchy freezing fog.
.MON...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. Patchy freezing fog.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED...N wind 40 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ185-181300-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
343 PM AKDT Sun Mar 17 2019

.TONIGHT...E of Saint Matthew Island, variable wind 10 kt. W of
Saint Matthew Island, variable wind 10 kt becoming SE 15 kt after
midnight. Seas 5 ft.
.MON...S wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing spray.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Freezing spray.
.TUE...E wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

502 
FZAK52 PAFC 181153
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
353 AM AKDT Mon Mar 18 2019

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-190030-
353 AM AKDT Mon Mar 18 2019
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 976 mb low 300 nm south of Shemya Mon morning moves to 495 nm
south of Dutch Harbor at 982 mb Tues morning and then stalls. A 
strong front approaches Shemya and the western Bering Wed morning.

$$

PKZ150-190030-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
353 AM AKDT Mon Mar 18 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 11
ft.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt becoming NE 15 kt after midnight.
Seas 9 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 15 kt increasing to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 9 
ft.
.TUE NIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.WED...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.THU...E wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.FRI...E wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

PKZ155-190030-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
353 AM AKDT Mon Mar 18 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...Variable wind 10 kt becoming E 20 kt in the afternoon.
From the Shumagin Islands E, NW wind 15 kt becoming variable less
than 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 8 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 25 kt. From the Shumagin Islands E, E wind 10 kt
increasing to 20 kt after midnight. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.WED...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU...N wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI...N wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

PKZ160-190030-
Bristol Bay-
353 AM AKDT Mon Mar 18 2019

.TODAY...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Freezing spray in the morning.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 kt in the evening becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind 10 kt early becoming NE 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED...E wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ165-190030-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
353 AM AKDT Mon Mar 18 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TUESDAY...

.TODAY...N wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt except NE 15 kt from Port Moller E. Seas
5 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 25 kt except NE 20 kt from Port Moller E. Seas 6
ft. Freezing spray in the morning.
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI...N wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.

$$

PKZ170-190030-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
353 AM AKDT Mon Mar 18 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...

.TODAY...E wind increasing to 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...N wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.FRI...N wind 35 kt. Seas 18 ft.

$$

PKZ171-190030-
Unalaska Bay-
353 AM AKDT Mon Mar 18 2019

.TODAY...E wind increasing to 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft building to 5 ft after
midnight.
.TUE...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...N wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...N wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ172-190030-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
353 AM AKDT Mon Mar 18 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 20 kt early increasing to 30 kt. Seas building to 8 
ft.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.  Snow and rain.
.TUE...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft. Rain showers and snow showers.
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

PKZ173-190030-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
353 AM AKDT Mon Mar 18 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...E wind increasing to 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.FRI...N wind 35 kt. Seas 19 ft.

$$

PKZ174-190030-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
353 AM AKDT Mon Mar 18 2019

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE wind increasing to 35 kt. Seas building to 12 ft.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft. Snow.
.TUE...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.  Snow and rain showers.
.TUE NIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.WED...N wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.THU...N wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 17 ft.

$$

PKZ175-190030-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
353 AM AKDT Mon Mar 18 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TONIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE...N wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED...N wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU...E wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.FRI...N wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.

$$

PKZ176-190030-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
353 AM AKDT Mon Mar 18 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.TONIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.TUE...N wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.WED...N wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.THU...E wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI...N wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft.

$$

PKZ177-190030-
Adak to Kiska-
353 AM AKDT Mon Mar 18 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...N wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.TUE...N wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED...E wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU...E wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.FRI...N wind 30 kt. Seas 21 ft.

$$

PKZ178-190030-
Kiska to Attu-
353 AM AKDT Mon Mar 18 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft. Patchy freezing fog.
.TUE...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.THU...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.FRI...E wind 40 kt. Seas 28 ft.

$$

PKZ179-190030-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
353 AM AKDT Mon Mar 18 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TUESDAY...

.TODAY...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming NE 15 kt after 
midnight. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 15 kt in the morning increasing to 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
Freezing spray in the morning.
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.WED...N wind 40 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.THU...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.FRI...N wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft.

$$

PKZ180-190030-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
353 AM AKDT Mon Mar 18 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TUESDAY...

.TODAY...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray.
.TUE...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing spray.
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...N wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ181-190030-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
353 AM AKDT Mon Mar 18 2019

.TODAY...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind 10 kt in the morning becoming N 20 kt. Seas 4 
ft. Freezing spray in the afternoon.
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED...N wind 40 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.THU...N wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.FRI...N wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ185-190030-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
353 AM AKDT Mon Mar 18 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TUESDAY...

.TODAY...E of Saint Matthew Island, variable wind 10 kt becoming
SE 15 kt in the afternoon. W of Saint Matthew Island, SE wind 20 kt 
becoming SW in the afternoon. Seas 5 ft. Freezing spray W of Saint
Matthew Island.
.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Freezing spray.
.TUE...N wind 15 kt E of Saint Matthew Island...S 25 kt W of Saint
Matthew Island. Seas 7 ft. Freezing spray.
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.FRI...N wind 40 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

098 
FZAK52 PAFC 182326
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
326 PM AKDT Mon Mar 18 2019

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-191200-
326 PM AKDT Mon Mar 18 2019
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A 978 mb low 400 nm South of Nikolski remains nearly stationary as it 
weakens through Wed afternoon. The associated front will track just 
south of the Eastern Aleutians and Alaska Peninsula. A separate front 
will approach the Western Aleutians on Wed afternoon.

$$

PKZ150-191200-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
326 PM AKDT Mon Mar 18 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt in the evening becoming variable 10 kt.
Seas 8 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.WED...S wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.WED NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.FRI...E wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SAT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ155-191200-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
326 PM AKDT Mon Mar 18 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 25 kt. From the Shumagin Islands E, variable
wind 10 kt becoming E 20 kt after midnight. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE...E wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.WED...N wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.WED NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU THROUGH SAT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ160-191200-
Bristol Bay-
326 PM AKDT Mon Mar 18 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray.
.TUE...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray.
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing spray.
.WED...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ165-191200-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
326 PM AKDT Mon Mar 18 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt except variable 10 kt from Port Moller E.
Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 25 kt except NE 20 kt from Port Moller E. 
Seas 6 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.

$$

PKZ170-191200-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
326 PM AKDT Mon Mar 18 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED...N wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED NIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.THU...N wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 17 ft.

$$

PKZ171-191200-
Unalaska Bay-
326 PM AKDT Mon Mar 18 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft building to 4 ft 
after midnight.
.TUE...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...N wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ172-191200-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
326 PM AKDT Mon Mar 18 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft. Snow and rain.
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft. Rain showers.
.WED...N wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.WED NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

PKZ173-191200-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
326 PM AKDT Mon Mar 18 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.THU...N wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.FRI...N wind 35 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.SAT...N wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

PKZ174-191200-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
326 PM AKDT Mon Mar 18 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.THU...N wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 17 ft.

$$

PKZ175-191200-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
326 PM AKDT Mon Mar 18 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.THU...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.FRI...N wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.SAT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ176-191200-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
326 PM AKDT Mon Mar 18 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.THU...N wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI...N wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.SAT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 28 ft.

$$

PKZ177-191200-
Adak to Kiska-
326 PM AKDT Mon Mar 18 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TUE...N wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.FRI...N wind 30 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 25 ft.

$$

PKZ178-191200-
Kiska to Attu-
326 PM AKDT Mon Mar 18 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft. Patchy freezing fog.
.TUE...W wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.THU...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.FRI...E wind 40 kt. Seas 28 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 28 ft.

$$

PKZ179-191200-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
326 PM AKDT Mon Mar 18 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing spray.
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. Freezing spray.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...N wind 40 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.THU THROUGH SAT...N wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft.

$$

PKZ180-191200-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
326 PM AKDT Mon Mar 18 2019

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TUESDAY NIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray.
.TUE...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing spray.
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft. Heavy freezing spray 
north of Cape Newenham.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...N wind 40 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU THROUGH SAT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ181-191200-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
326 PM AKDT Mon Mar 18 2019

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TUESDAY NIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt increasing to 30 kt after midnight.
Seas 6 ft. Heavy freezing spray after midnight.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...N wind 40 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU...N wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...N wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ185-191200-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
326 PM AKDT Mon Mar 18 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing spray.
.TUE...Variable wind 10 kt E of Saint Matthew Island...SW 20 kt W
of Saint Matthew Island. Seas 6 ft. Freezing spray.
.TUE NIGHT...E of Saint Matthew Island, NE wind 15 kt increasing
to 25 kt after midnight. W of Saint Matthew Island, S wind 15 kt. 
Seas 5 ft. Freezing spray.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU...N wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.FRI...N wind 40 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SAT...N wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
507 PM AKDT Sat Mar 16 2019

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
A warm and rainy weather pattern continues along the Gulf coast
this afternoon as a front associated with a low near Kodiak
continues to lift northward into the North Gulf Coast. Rain
showers have been observed on radar, along with gusty conditions,
extending from Kodiak Island to east of Cordova along coastal
areas. Interior Southcentral has remained mostly dry, with
temperatures remaining above freezing today and gusty conditions
through Turnagain Arm and other favorable gaps in the terrain.
Looking out west, fairly benign conditions remain throughout most
of the Bering with the only feature being a weak low moving
eastward from the central Bering towards Bristol Bay. Snow showers
were occurring today along the Aleutian Chain and over much of the
Bering Sea including the Pribilofs. A shortwave over the
Southwest continues to bring below snow, strong winds, and
reduced visibilities to coastal areas. Temperatures are also well
below freezing in the Kuskokwim Delta area with the northwesterly
flow on the west side of the low.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
The numerical models are in good agreement over much of southern
Alaska and the Bering Sea through Monday afternoon. The important
exception is how they deal with a low moving into the western Gulf
from the south on Sunday morning through its transition into
southwest Alaska Sunday night into Monday morning. The NAM is the
furthest east and fastest with this low, and was not used in the
forecast. The ECMWF begins as the slowest, then catches up to and
possibly passes the GFS Monday morning. The GFS was the preferred
model for this low and was used in the afternoon forecast.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC... VFR conditions are expected to persist through Sunday
afternoon. Gusty southerly winds are expected through this
evening, then end overnight as the next system approaches from the
south. Wind shear is then expected as the surface winds turn
northerly and the winds aloft become strong from the southeast.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2: Today
through Monday)...
A series of low pressure systems moving across Southern Alaska
will keep the area in a very active weather pattern over the next
couple days. A weakening low pressure system over Southwest Alaska
continues to keep a strong southeasterly wind going across the
Gulf and into Southcentral. This onshore flow is leading to
widespread upslope precipitation across coastal areas and the
adjacent mountains all along the Gulf Coast. For immediate coastal
communities, such as Seward, Valdez, and Whittier, the
precipitation has been primarily rain, but in the mountains,
steady snow will continue through into Monday.

Once the low currently over Southwest Alaska moves into the
interior and dissipates tonight, a second low will move south of
Kodiak Island Sunday morning, which will continue the onshore flow
and upslope precipitation. The low will slowly track north,
passing Kodiak late Sunday night and move into Cook Inlet on
Monday. Then it will dissipate as it moves into the Susitna
Valley late Monday. Along this track, onshore flow will persist
along the Gulf Coast the entire time, resulting in the mountain
snows and coastal rains.

The lows following this track will also keep the gap winds through
Turnagain Arm, the Knik and Matanuska Valleys, and the Copper
River Basin going through Monday. While the Turnagain Arm wind
will persist, it will vary in intensity and position, so Anchorage
will not be subject to it constantly through Monday, just at
certain times. However, its warming and drying effect will still
persist regardless of where the strongest winds are. Thus,
relatively little precipitation and highs in the 40s are expected
the next couple days. Those temperatures will approach the daily
records. The other areas subject to the gusty winds, like the
Matanuska Valley and Copper River Basin, will also see highs
spike well into the 40s for the same reason. With relatively
little sunshine due to the onshore flow, expect nighttime lows to
also remain relatively warm with a diminishing number of
locations seeing temperatures drop below freezing. Thus, the March
thaw will continue until there is a substantial weather pattern
change.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
A deformation zone has setup over southwest Alaska which has
brought a mix of rain and snow to the area. Eastern locations are
seeing more rain with areas farther west seeing primarily snow.
Tonight it will slowly shift east and setup over the Bristol Bay
area and extend north into the Lower Kuskokwim Valley. It will
linger there through Sunday as it gets reinforced with a low
approaching from the south. The deformation zone will then
diminish on Monday as high pressure and cold air move in from the
west.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...
Cold air will remain over the Bering through the forecast period
with broad westerly flow shifting to northerly flow as high
pressure builds in from the west beginning Sunday night. This
pattern is also conducive for light snow showers over the area.
Similarly, the Aleutians will begin with westerly flow but winds
over the islands will switch to the east as a North Pacific low
approaches on Sunday. The low will stay south of the Aleutians but
will bring some warmer air to the eastern Aleutians and a mix of
rain and snow on Monday.

&&

.MARINE (Days 3 through 5)...
(Tuesday through Thursday

...Bering Sea/Aleutians...

The numerical models aren't in the best agreement, so this
forecast may change in the coming days. In general, a broad
cyclonic flow pattern looks to persist, with rain and snow showers
crossing the region through Wednesday north of the Aleutian
chain. Here, seas look to remain in the 5 to 15 feet range for
most areas. The exception to this will be south of there, where a
series of lows will trek eastward from the central Aleutians
towards the western Gulf in the Tuesday through Wednesday time
frame, where seas will build to near 20 feet with high-end Small
craft/low-end sustained gales likely.

Then on Thursday, some of the models want to bring a sub 975 mb
low towards Shemya, resulting in high-end gales for western
portions of the chain and Bering, with the other half indicate
winds under 15 knot's with a light sea state. All of this will be
determined by the eventual track of a strong low (~955 to 965 mb
range) heading towards Kodiak on Friday, as the overall pattern
(surface and aloft).

Forecast confidence: Low

...Gulf of Alaska...

An active pattern will continue for the region, as one low moves
ashore from the Gulf on Wednesday,with small craft criteria winds
and seas of 10 to 15 feet expected. An even stronger system will
affect starts to affect the area on Thursday, moving into the
Gulf on Friday. This next storm is where the forecast confidence
goes down hill, as model guidance has almost a 200 nm displacement
of where the low goes, and at what strength, leading to a
difference between small craft wind conditions near the coast and
gales for the outer waters and storm force near the Barren Islands
(all winds sustained). This would have a large effect on wave
height given the good fetch length as well. Thus, additional
forecast changes are almost a certainty in the coming days.

Forecast confidence: Moderate Wednesday, low by Thursday evening

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...
(Tuesday through Saturday)

A high degree of uncertainty exists for the long term portion of
the forecast, as model continuity quickly disintegrates. Overall,
what we do know is a series of lows will trek northward through
the Gulf into Southwest Alaska. The question remains as to what
track? Overall, look for the first low to on Wednesday to bring
another surge of moisture and increasing temperatures to the
eastern into southwest and southcentral Alaska, with a front also
moving into the western Bering and Aleutians.

After this, virtually all models show a strong low lifting north
northwest into the western or central Gulf for Thursday into
Friday evening, with the GFS suggesting a low moving towards the
gulf from sough of Adak getting absorbed into the larger system,
where as the other models don't show this. Additionally, they all
show another storm approaching Shemya, but the isobaric pattern at
the surface and aloft are out of phase amongst the numerical
members.

Heading into early next week, the spaghetti plots are all over the
place with no sign of model agreement south of the Aleutian chain,
nor over southwest/south central Alaska through the Gulf, with
some modest agreement over the northwest Bering. This all looks to
be related to how quickly a downstream ridge becomes more
progressive, and less upper air observations across the
Bering/island chain compared to points further east.

That said, pattern persistent has been the dominate mode as of
late, so will hedge the forecast in that direction. This leads to
a warm and active pattern for the eastern Bering/AKPEN into
southcentral and the Gulf, with a general showery pattern driven
by cyclonic flow for the west.

Forecast confidence: Low

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...Gale Warning 119 120 125 130 150 176 351
         Heavy Freezing Spray Warning 185
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...AH/BL
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...JW
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...DK
MARINE/LONG TERM...PD