Gale Warning 255, NWS Anchorage, AK

130 
FZAK52 PAFC 161159
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
359 AM AKDT Sat Mar 16 2019

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-170030-
359 AM AKDT Sat Mar 16 2019
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A 970 mb low 220 nm northwest of St. Paul will move near Bristol 
Bay and dissipate Sun morning. A 975 mb low 180 nm southeast of 
Chignik will move inland over King Salmon Sat night. Weak low 
pressure remains in the Bering through Mon morning. 

$$

PKZ150-170030-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
359 AM AKDT Sat Mar 16 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...N wind 30 kt. Gusts to 45 kt out of bays and passes. 
Seas 12 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SUN...N wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.MON...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.WED...E wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

PKZ155-170030-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
359 AM AKDT Sat Mar 16 2019

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 35 kt. Gusts to 50 kt out of 
bays and passes. Seas 11 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...E wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ160-170030-
Bristol Bay-
359 AM AKDT Sat Mar 16 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.SUN...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.SUN NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON...N wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...E wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ165-170030-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
359 AM AKDT Sat Mar 16 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 25 kt except NW 30 kt from Port Moller E. Seas
10 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt becoming W 20 kt after midnight. 
Seas 9 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ170-170030-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
359 AM AKDT Sat Mar 16 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON...E wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED...N wind 15 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ171-170030-
Unalaska Bay-
359 AM AKDT Sat Mar 16 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft building to 6 ft after
midnight.
.SUN...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft subsiding to 2 ft in the
afternoon.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ172-170030-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
359 AM AKDT Sat Mar 16 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 25 kt becoming W 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.WED...N wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ173-170030-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
359 AM AKDT Sat Mar 16 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED...N wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ174-170030-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
359 AM AKDT Sat Mar 16 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SUN...W wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.WED...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ175-170030-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
359 AM AKDT Sat Mar 16 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN...W wind 15 kt in the morning becoming variable 10 kt. 
Seas 8 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ176-170030-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
359 AM AKDT Sat Mar 16 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 20 kt becoming E in the afternoon. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...N wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.WED...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ177-170030-
Adak to Kiska-
359 AM AKDT Sat Mar 16 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt after midnight. 
Seas 10 ft.
.SUN...S wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...N wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ178-170030-
Kiska to Attu-
359 AM AKDT Sat Mar 16 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft. Freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON...W wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...N wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ179-170030-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
359 AM AKDT Sat Mar 16 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Freezing spray. Snow showers.
.TONIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. Freezing spray.
.SUN...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. Freezing spray.
.SUN NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...N wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ180-170030-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
359 AM AKDT Sat Mar 16 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft. Freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. Freezing spray.
.SUN...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing spray.
.SUN NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON THROUGH WED...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ181-170030-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
359 AM AKDT Sat Mar 16 2019

.TODAY...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing spray.
.SUN...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing spray.
.SUN NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON...S wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ185-170030-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
359 AM AKDT Sat Mar 16 2019

.TODAY...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Freezing spray.
.SUN...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. Freezing spray.
.SUN NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

330 
FZAK52 PAFC 162311
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
311 PM AKDT Sat Mar 16 2019

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-171215-
311 PM AKDT Sat Mar 16 2019
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 995 mb low 105 nm north of St Paul this afternoon moves over 
Bristol Bay and dissipates by Sun afternoon. A 977 mb low 450 nm 
south of Shemya Sun afternoon moves to 325 nm south of Dutch 
Harbor at 978 mb by Mon afternoon.

$$

PKZ150-171215-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
311 PM AKDT Sat Mar 16 2019

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SUN...N wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.MON...W wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...E wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.THU...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ155-171215-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
311 PM AKDT Sat Mar 16 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Gusts to 45 kt out of bays and passes this
evening. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON...N wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE...E wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.WED...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ160-171215-
Bristol Bay-
311 PM AKDT Sat Mar 16 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. Freezing spray after midnight.
.SUN...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Freezing spray in the morning.
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing spray.
.MON...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...E wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...E wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ165-171215-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
311 PM AKDT Sat Mar 16 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...N wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ170-171215-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
311 PM AKDT Sat Mar 16 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt becoming E 15 kt after midnight.
Seas 7 ft.
.MON...E wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED...N wind 15 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ171-171215-
Unalaska Bay-
311 PM AKDT Sat Mar 16 2019

.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NW wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less
than 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ172-171215-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
311 PM AKDT Sat Mar 16 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt becoming E after midnight. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...E wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.WED...N wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ173-171215-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
311 PM AKDT Sat Mar 16 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt becoming E 20 kt after midnight.
Seas 6 ft.
.MON...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.WED...N wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ174-171215-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
311 PM AKDT Sat Mar 16 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SUN...W wind 20 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 10 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 10 kt becoming E 30 kt after midnight. 
Seas 7 ft.
.MON...E wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.TUE...N wind 35 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...W wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ175-171215-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
311 PM AKDT Sat Mar 16 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt becoming NW 15 kt after midnight. 
Seas 9 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind 10 kt becoming SE 15 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 7 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE...N wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ176-171215-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
311 PM AKDT Sat Mar 16 2019

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN...W wind 20 kt becoming SE in the afternoon. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 20 kt increasing to 35 kt after midnight. 
Seas 10 ft.
.MON...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.MON NIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.TUE...N wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.WED...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU...W wind 15 kt. Seas 15 ft.

$$

PKZ177-171215-
Adak to Kiska-
311 PM AKDT Sat Mar 16 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON...N wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.MON NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 19 ft.

$$

PKZ178-171215-
Kiska to Attu-
311 PM AKDT Sat Mar 16 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...Variable wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN...E wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Freezing spray after midnight N
of Shemya.
.MON...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.WED...N wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.THU...S wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ179-171215-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
311 PM AKDT Sat Mar 16 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt increasing to 25 kt after midnight. 
Seas 10 ft. Freezing spray after midnight.
.SUN...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. Freezing spray in the morning.
.SUN NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...N wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...N wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ180-171215-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
311 PM AKDT Sat Mar 16 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Freezing spray.
.SUN...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing spray.
.MON...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ181-171215-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
311 PM AKDT Sat Mar 16 2019

.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing spray.
.SUN...W wind 20 kt in the morning becoming variable 10 kt. 
Seas 5 ft. Freezing spray in the morning.
.SUN NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ185-171215-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
311 PM AKDT Sat Mar 16 2019

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Freezing spray.
.SUN...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. Heavy freezing spray near the ice
edge in the morning.
.SUN NIGHT...E of Saint Matthew Island, variable wind 10 kt. W of
Saint Matthew Island, variable wind 10 kt becoming SE 15 kt after
midnight. Seas 5 ft.
.MON...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
525 AM AKDT Fri Mar 15 2019

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

An upper level low in the northern Bering is creating a broad
trough that encompasses much of the Bering. Cyclonic flow is
advecting cold air over the western and central Bering. A
vertically stacked low is advancing toward the southwestern Gulf
of Alaska, however it still remains well south of Kodiak Island.
General southerly flow aloft is ushering in warm and moist air to
the Gulf of Alaska.

In the Gulf, a front is draped along the northern and western
Gulf coastline. The alignment of this front is creating an
easterly wind through Southcentral and the northern Gulf, while a
more northerly flow is present over the western Gulf and Kodiak
Island. The easterly wind is creating gusty conditions through the
typical favored passes, Turnagain Arm and Anchorage area. The
Friday 12Z sounding depicts an unstable atmosphere which is
allowing the stronger winds from aloft to mix down to the surface
near Anchorage. Coastal areas like Seward and Cordova are
receiving the bulk of the precipitation, with warm temperatures
keeping it mostly as rain. In the southwest, weather conditions
remain fairly calm.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
Models remain in relatively good agreement lending to above
normal forecast confidence. The NAMNest was generally preferred
for short term updates in both the west and the east. The biggest
areas of discrepancy are the exact location of the next closed low
moving into the Western Gulf Sun afternoon and a shortwave diving
through the Northern Bering on Sat afternoon. The most critical
aspect of the forecast that models notoriously have a hard time
resolving are the snow levels across the Western Prince William
Sound and through Turnagain Pass. The overnight package generally
kept snow levels much the same for today's system and then used
manual edits to raise them into the weekend for that area.
Finally, models are coming into better agreement with a
deformation axis over the interior portions of Bristol Bay late
Sun. Right now, it looks as precipitation will be all snow with
this feature and we will need to keep an eye on it.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...Southeast winds are hanging on this morning, but should
sharply turn out of the north to northeast right around 15z, maybe
a bit earlier. This will set the stage for wind shear over the
Turnagain Arm and Chugach Mountains as southeast winds increase in
response to our next storm. Conditions should remain VFR with
showers along the mountains. It will be possible for a brief
shower to move over the terminal, especially during the afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Today and Saturday)...

Yet another storm system heads north across the western Gulf with
the center moving just south of Kodiak Island Saturday morning
and to over the Barren Islands Saturday evening. The associated
frontal trough moves to the North Gulf Coast late tonight then
weakens as it moves inland Saturday. Gale to Storm force winds are
expected along the leading edge of the front as it heads north.
Marine winds should peak along the North Gulf overnight tonight
then diminish Saturday. Strong and gusty gap winds are also
expected From Portage Valley to western Turnagain Arm, Matanuska
Valley, and mountain passes and channeled terrain. Pressure rises
on the backside of the front as it moves inland Saturday will
produce gusty southerly winds across the Copper River Basin as
well as the Anchorage Bowl and Knik Valley.

The brunt of the precipitation will be along the Gulf Coast (generally
the eastern Kenai Peninsula) and should fall mainly as rain at
the lower elevations. Snow levels will generally be 800 to 1000 ft
range through tonight then rising some on Saturday. Areas inland
of the coastal mountains will be largely downsloped and see very
little precipitation other than a few showers.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3...Fri
through Sun)...

The longwave pattern features an elongated trough from the Gulf Of
Alaska to NE Russia. Looking at 500 mb, there is a pair of lows
at 500 mb that are moving across the Bering and interacting with
each other resembling the "Fujiwhara Effect." At times, these
upper level shortwaves clip the Kipnuk and Hooper Bay area. At the
surface, there really isn't an organized frontal boundary, just a
few troughs which is seen in the latest ASCAT/Advanced
scatterometer pass and in the isobars at the surface of the
models. There will be enough dynamics in place to keep snow
showers in portions of west Alaska. Meanwhile, a front in the
North Pacific/GOA region will push towards the AKPEN later today.
A deformation band is expected to set up over Southwest along with
wrap around moisture which will bring accumulating snow to the
southern portion of Southwest Alaska starting tonight and
persisting through Sat.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3...Fri
through Sun)... There is a low southwest of Adak that will get
shunted southeast today taking the bulk of the stratiform
precipitation with it. Meanwhile, over the northern Bering there
is a surface low between St. Matthew and St. Lawrence Island and
the models show it continuing to decay and being absorbed into the
longwave pattern. Looking at the temperatures aloft, cold air
will continue to advect from NE Russia across much of the Bering
and into Western Alaska, resulting in a showery regime. Cold air
over warm water is inherently unstable, so expect more
convection/snow showers over the Bering.

&&

.MARINE (Days 3 through 5/Sunday through Tuesday)...

The Gulf of Alaska will continue to see an active storm track
with several systems moving into the area from south to north
between Sunday and Tuesday. There decent model agreement with a
system on Sunday with good confidence that an easterly gale force
barrier jet will develop along the North Gulf Coast in the AM with
southerly gales developing across the open Gulf later in the day.
Winds will diminish below gale force on Monday ahead of the next
system which is expected sometime between Monday night and
Tuesday. Model agreement falls apart with this storm, thus
forecast confidence diminishes past Monday.

The Bering Sea is expected to remain generally quiet with continued
weak northerly flow as high pressure builds in. A low is expected
to push east just south of the Aleutians, potentially bringing low
end gale force winds to the coastal waters on the south side of
the central and eastern portions of the island chain Monday into
Tuesday.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7/Sunday through
Thursday)...

The long term outlook continues to show a highly amplified and
active pattern with persistent mean upper-level troughing over the
Bering and an upper-level ridge axis building across western
Canada and the US West Coast. The ridge eventually builds north
over the Alaskan Panhandle. This setup will keep the storm track
south of the Bering with persistent southerly flow directing
energy north into the Gulf of Alaska and the southern mainland.
The active storm track will be supported by a strong southerly jet
which will pump warm moist air north from the sub-tropics. This
will lead to periods of heavy precipitation, especially along the
coast, above average temperatures, and rising snow levels
approaching 2000+ ft by early next week.

Though confidence is high regarding the longwave pattern, models
are still struggling quite a bit with specific features embedded
within the overall flow, especially after Monday. Thus, confidence
in timing and location of individual systems is still low at this
point.

Looking past Thursday, ensemble solutions add extra confidence to
the pattern persisting well into next week, with day 8 maximum
positive 500 mb height anomalies centered over west central Canada
and minimum negative anomalies centered between the Aleutians and
Hawaii. This will generally keep southerly flow directing storms
north into the Gulf of Alaska.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...Storm Warning 119 130.
         Gale Warning 120 125 129 131 138-140 351 352. FIRE
WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...RA/MSO
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...RMC
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...PJS
MARINE/LONG TERM...KVP