Gale Warning 229, NWS Anchorage, AK

472 
FZAK52 PAFC 050024
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
324 PM AKST Mon Mar 4 2019

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-051300-
324 PM AKST Mon Mar 4 2019
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 1002 mb low 265 nm west of Saint Paul Monday afternoon moves to
85 nm west of Mekoryuk at 1002 mb by Tue afternoon. A front 
reaches the western Aleutians Tuesday afternoon. The associated 
low moves to 290 nm southwest of Shemya at 965 mb by Tue 
afternoon, and then to 55 nm northeast if Shemya at 957 mb by
Wednesday afternoon.

$$

PKZ150-051300-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
324 PM AKST Mon Mar 4 2019

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind increasing to 35 kt. Seas 14 ft. Rain.
.TUE...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED...W wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...S wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.SAT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 21 ft.

$$

PKZ155-051300-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
324 PM AKST Mon Mar 4 2019

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 30 kt becoming W 20 kt after midnight. From the
Shumagin Islands E, SE wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft. Rain.
.TUE...W wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft. Patchy fog.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. Patchy fog.
.WED...S wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 40 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.THU...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 30 ft.

$$

PKZ160-051300-
Bristol Bay-
324 PM AKST Mon Mar 4 2019

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain.
.TUE...S wind 25 kt becoming W in the afternoon. Seas 7 ft. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt after midnight.
Seas 6 ft.
.WED...S wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU THROUGH SAT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ165-051300-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
324 PM AKST Mon Mar 4 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain.
.TUE...W wind 25 kt except W 20 kt from Port Moller E. Seas 9 ft.
Patchy fog.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. Patchy fog.
.WED...S wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU...S wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...S wind 35 kt. Seas 20 ft.

$$

PKZ170-051300-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
324 PM AKST Mon Mar 4 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. Patchy fog.
.TUE...W wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. Patchy fog.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. Patchy fog.
.WED...SE wind 45 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 40 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.THU...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 24 ft.

$$

PKZ171-051300-
Unalaska Bay-
324 PM AKST Mon Mar 4 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Patchy fog.
.TUE...W wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft. Patchy fog.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 15 kt becoming S after midnight. Seas 2 ft. 
Patchy fog.
.WED...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ172-051300-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
324 PM AKST Mon Mar 4 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft. Patchy fog.
.TUE...W wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft. Patchy fog.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. Patchy fog.
.WED...SE wind 45 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.THU...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 27 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 26 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 36 ft.

$$

PKZ173-051300-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
324 PM AKST Mon Mar 4 2019

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. Patchy fog.
.TUE...W wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. Patchy fog.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 20 kt becoming SE 40 kt after midnight. Seas
7 ft building to 12 ft after midnight. Patchy fog. Rain.
.WED...S wind 50 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 40 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.THU...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 22 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...SW wind 45 kt. Seas 25 ft.

$$

PKZ174-051300-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
324 PM AKST Mon Mar 4 2019

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft. Patchy fog.
.TUE...W wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft. Patchy fog.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 25 kt becoming SE 40 kt after midnight. Seas
10 ft building to 15 ft after midnight. Patchy fog. Rain.
.WED...S wind 50 kt. Seas 24 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 33 ft.
.THU...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 34 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...SW wind 45 kt. Seas 35 ft.

$$

PKZ175-051300-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
324 PM AKST Mon Mar 4 2019

...STORM WARNING TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. Patchy fog.
.TUE...W wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Patchy fog.
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 35 kt increasing to 50 kt after midnight.
Seas 9 ft building to 18 ft after midnight. Rain.
.WED...S wind 50 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 45 kt. Seas 27 ft.
.THU...SW wind 45 kt. Seas 26 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...SW wind 45 kt. Seas 20 ft.

$$

PKZ176-051300-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
324 PM AKST Mon Mar 4 2019

...STORM WARNING TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft. Patchy fog.
.TUE...W wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft. Patchy fog.
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 40 kt increasing to 50 kt after midnight.
Seas 15 ft building to 27 ft after midnight. Rain and snow.
.WED...S wind 50 kt. Seas 30 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 50 kt. Seas 42 ft.
.THU...SW wind 50 kt. Seas 42 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...SW wind 45 kt. Seas 39 ft.

$$

PKZ177-051300-
Adak to Kiska-
324 PM AKST Mon Mar 4 2019

...STORM WARNING TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft. Patchy fog.
.TUE...SW wind 20 kt becoming SE 40 kt in the afternoon. Seas 13
ft. Patchy fog. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 50 kt. Seas 23 ft Bering side...27 ft Pacific 
side. Rain.
.WED...S wind 50 kt. Seas 39 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 55 kt. Seas 47 ft.
.THU...SW wind 55 kt. Seas 44 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 45 kt. Seas 32 ft.
.SAT...W wind 45 kt. Seas 32 ft.

$$

PKZ178-051300-
Kiska to Attu-
324 PM AKST Mon Mar 4 2019

...STORM WARNING TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft. Patchy fog and freezing fog.
.TUE...S wind 25 kt becoming E 45 kt in the afternoon. Bering
side, seas 11 ft. Pacific side, seas 11 ft building to 19 ft in the 
afternoon. Snow and rain.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 50 kt. Seas 26 ft. Rain.
.WED...E wind 40 kt. Seas 29 ft.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 55 kt. Seas 37 ft.
.THU...W wind 50 kt. Seas 32 ft.
.FRI...S wind 40 kt. Seas 22 ft.
.SAT...W wind 35 kt. Seas 22 ft.

$$

PKZ179-051300-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
324 PM AKST Mon Mar 4 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TUE...W wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt becoming S after midnight. Seas 10 ft.
Patchy fog.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...S wind 40 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.THU...S wind 30 kt. Seas 22 ft.
.FRI...S wind 35 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 19 ft.

$$

PKZ180-051300-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
324 PM AKST Mon Mar 4 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain.
.TUE...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. Freezing spray.
.WED...S wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.THU...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

PKZ181-051300-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
324 PM AKST Mon Mar 4 2019

.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE...S wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. Patchy freezing fog. Freezing
spray.
.WED...E wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED NIGHT...E wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.THU...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ185-051300-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
324 PM AKST Mon Mar 4 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...E of Saint Matthew Island, NW wind 20 kt. W of Saint
Matthew Island, N wind 15 kt becoming E 25 kt after midnight. Seas
8 ft. Patchy freezing fog. Freezing spray.
.WED...E wind 45 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.WED NIGHT...E wind 45 kt. Seas 24 ft.
.THU...E wind 40 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.FRI...E wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SAT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
433 PM AKST Sun Mar 3 2019

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

The main weather maker today is a strong vertically stacked low
that continues to spin just to the west of the Bering Sea. In the
upper levels, warm moist air is advecting over the central
Aleutians ahead of the low. Cold air is wrapping around the low
and moving over the western Aleutians and Bering. This low can
easily be identified in satellite imagery as a "textbook" curl in
the west, with a northwesterly oriented front over the central and
eastern Bering. Surface south-southeasterly flow through the
Southwest is amplified by an increased pressure gradient in the
location of the front. These gusty winds is partnered with
precipitation that is falling throughout the Aleutian chain and
Bering.

A persistent ridge is situated over the Gulf of Alaska and
portions of the southwestern mainland. This ridge is keeping skies
generally clear and conditions dry. Within the flow of the ridge,
a shortwave is present over southcentral. This shortwave causing
scattered snow showers through the greater Anchorage area.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

Models remain in good agreement through Tuesday. As the current
system in the Bering begins to decay tonight, the next storm is
advancing from the North Pacific towards the eastern Aleutians.
With this next low, models are in decent agreement though they
begin to slightly diverge Monday evening regarding the location.
The GFS is the slightly faster solution while the NAM, EC, and
Canadian remain in decent agreement, but this is disagreement is
short lived. Yet another Kamchatka low will move into the area
Tuesday afternoon and models remain consistent with the
approaching storm.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...The snow flurries around the airport should end before the
afternoon is done and the question then turns to whether or not
there will be fog or stratus. Clearing skies in the evening will
help temperatures to drop and the likelihood for fog to develop
increases as the night goes on. Bringing in some to the vicinity
around 12Z and then dropping conditions lower for the daily
'sunrise surprise.' Only it is not much of a surprise anymore as
it has happened most days this winter when skies haver cleared
out. The fog should then burn off no later than noon.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

An upper-level trough will move east this evening, stretching
from the Copper River Basin south along the Alaska Panhandle where
scattered clouds and snow showers will linger into the early
morning hours. Behind it, a ridge will build in from Kodiak Island
north through the Susitna Valley. Diminishing cloud cover and
weak surface winds will allow for radiational cooling and the
development of surface inversions. As a result, areas of fog are
likely overnight tonight through tomorrow morning from Kenai
north across the southern portions of the Mat-Su Valleys. In
addition, outflow winds will be on the increase tonight, lingering
through tomorrow, as the north/south pressure gradient between
the building surface ridge over the interior and the trough along
the northern Gulf strengthens.

A second shortwave trough and associated surface low will then
track east from the AKPEN toward Southcentral Monday night into
Tuesday with increasing clouds and areas of rain and snow from
Kodiak Island north across eastern Kenai Peninsula and into the
western half of the Susitna Valley. This system will quickly
weaken by early Wednesday as the upper-level jet support dives
south, outruns the initial surface low, and spins up a new low
well south of Kodiak.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: Today
through Tuesday)...

Moist southerly flow along and in advance of a front that extends
along 170W will move east over the Bering Sea coast from
Dillingham north into the Kuskokwim Delta overnight. This will
bring with it warmer low level air resulting in a mix of rain and
snow over the southwest mainland tomorrow. As the front
approaches the coast, gale force wind will move in to the
Kuskokwim Delta coast and potentially into the western portion of
Bristol Bay. A low is forming along the front and will move north
to just off of Nunivak Island Monday night. This low will wrap
cold air around it into the southwest mainland through Tuesday
afternoon resulting in any precipitation that does fall to fall as
snow. A low will form near Cold Bay Monday night. As we move into
Tuesday morning and afternoon, the low near Cold Bay will move
toward Kodiak Island as the low off Nunivak Island elongates to
the north into the Bering Strait with a remaining trough along the
Bering Sea Coast. The Bering Strait low will then continue north
and the associate trough moves inland as a ridge builds into the
eastern Bering Sea Wednesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3: Today
through Tuesday)...

A strong low over the western Bering Sea will move over the
Russian far east overnight tonight. The front associated with this
low moved into the eastern Bering Sea as discussed above. A
weaker low forms near the Kurile Islands Late Monday and high
pressure builds from the north Pacific to south of the ALeutians.
This tightens the pressure gradient along the Aleutian Islands
resulting in near gale force winds at times. The next big storm on
tap will start to impact the western Aleutians Tuesday afternoon
as the front approaches from the south. This storm should bottom
out in the mid 950 MB range Wednesday afternoon. The associated
front will barrel across the Aleutians into the Bering Sea and
push east to the eastern Aleutians through Wednesday.

&&

.MARINE (Days 3 through 5)...
A storm force front enters the western Bering Wednesday with the
surface low deepening to 952 mb as it crosses into the southern
Bering Thursday morning. The low then fills rapidly and is
absorbed by the next powerful North Pacific storm which moves
across the Chain by Friday afternoon. This fast paced storm pushes
its front to the eastern Bering by late Friday. Monitor this
system as it is expected to bring significant winds and waves
during the second part of the week as the subtropical jet noses
toward the Alaska Peninsula.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...

The long range forecast beginning Wednesday marks the beginning
of a synoptic pattern shift that breaks down the upper level split
flow pattern...where the ridge is currently dominant over Yukon
and Alcan border. This change is onset due to the combination of
strong storms moving along the Bering while the subtropical jet
streak noses to the Alaska Peninsula toward the end of the week.
The forthcoming changes in the storm pattern will bring higher
chances for precipitation across the southern mainland and
surrounding waters along with gusty winds as the storm generally
tracks to the Southwest coast at the end of the week and pushes
its front eastward next weekend.

Models are in good agreement with this overall synoptic shift;
therefore, a blend of the ECMWF and GFS ensembles were used to
make extended updates today.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...Gales 178 185 411.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...RA
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...TM
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...SA
MARINE/LONG TERM...KH