Gale Warning 221, NWS Anchorage, AK

483 
FZAK62 PAFC 301104
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
304 AM AKDT Sat Mar 30 2019

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-310100-
304 AM AKDT Sat Mar 30 2019
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A front over the central Aleutians and Bering will begin to 
weaken Sun morning. A second front approaches the western 
Aleutians Mon morning.

$$

PKZ411-310100-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
304 AM AKDT Sat Mar 30 2019

.TODAY...SE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 13 to 18 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 12 to 17 ft. Rain.
.SUN...SE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 10 to 17 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.MON THROUGH WED...E wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft.

$$

PKZ412-310100-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
304 AM AKDT Sat Mar 30 2019

.TODAY...SE wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 12 to 19 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 10 to 15 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 15 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 to 12 ft.
.MON THROUGH WED...E wind 30 kt. Seas 8 to 16 ft.

$$

PKZ413-310100-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
304 AM AKDT Sat Mar 30 2019

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 to 35 kt. Seas 10 to 16 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 9 to 15 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 8 to 11 ft.
.MON THROUGH WED...E wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 15 ft.

$$

PKZ414-310100-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
304 AM AKDT Sat Mar 30 2019

.TODAY...SE wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 10 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 9 ft.
.SUN...E wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON THROUGH WED...E wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
413 AM AKDT Fri Mar 29 2019

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

Strong ridging persists over Southcentral AK while troughing
persists in over the Bering Sea. This overall pattern is largely
stagnant, making for little change in the weather. Areas of
Southcentral will continue to see intermittent stratus trapped
under high pressure, otherwise very quiet weather is expected for
the area. A low pressure system is currently pushing through the
Bering Sea. Over the weekend, the western edge of the high will
extend into the eastern Bering. This will push any low pressure
systems farther west, calming weather for all areas except the
western Aleutians.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
Models continue to be in great agreement through the short term.
This stagnant pattern has enabled models to really lock in on a
forecast. Therefore, forecast confidence remains high.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...VFR conditions and light winds will persist. Areas of
stratus will persist over the airfield, but cloud bases are
expected to remain above the VFR minimum.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...
The trough over Southcentral Alaska will continue to diminish
through the day. This will make way for ridging to build in from
the west that will clear out skies. More nice weather is on the
way for the weekend with warm temperatures and clear skies
looking to last through Sunday. Additionally, winds should remain
light under the high pressure with some areas seeing a light sea
breeze.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

A quiet pattern will continue over Southwest Alaska through this
weekend. Strong high pressure will dominate the region leading to
above average highs, colder lows and little to no precipitation.
The main concern will be potential radiation fog in the mornings.
Patchy fog is currently occurring over the Kuskokwim Delta in
southeasterly flow. As the high continues to build, offshore flow
becomes more likely. The highest probability of more dense fog
occurring will be in valleys and low-lying areas where wind speeds
and cloud cover are expected to be minimal. A weak upper level low
could trigger some scattered showers over the Bristol Bay coast on
Monday. Fair skies should remain in place elsewhere under the
high.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3)...

A weakening low southwest of Attu will continue to bring periods
of low end gales and precipitation to the western and central
Aleutians and Bering along its associated occluded front through
Saturday. The low will weaken Sunday and Monday, diminishing winds
to sub-gales.

&&

.MARINE (Days 3 through 5/Sunday through Tuesday)...

Confidence remains high for benign conditions in the Gulf of
Alaska waters.

Things are a little less clear out west. Though the forecast has
largely been advertising small craft winds, there is potential for
gale force winds as a deep low passes south of the western
Aleutians on Monday. Winds will then diminish on Tuesday.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7/Monday through Thursday)...

The steering flow is complicated to starting out early next Monday
and this is being reflected in the run-to-run model inconsistencies
with handling of key features. A small, weak upper level low near
Kodiak today wanders along the southern periphery of the strong
closed ridge which builds over mainland Alaska this weekend. As
the ridge shifts eastward, this low begins to head northward up
the west side of the ridge. However, as heights rise upstream of
the low it becomes caught between ridges in really weak flow.
This creates uncertainty in the evolution of the entire large
scale pattern over the Alaska region. The one notable trend in
model guidance is for strong ridging to develop over the northern
Bering Sea and eastern Russia early next week. This would allow
short-waves to drop down from the Arctic, ushering colder air
southward. Despite all the uncertainty in placement/strength of
features, all of the solutions point toward continued dry (or
mostly dry) conditions for Southwest and Southcentral through
the extended forecast period. If arctic air does make it to the
southern mainland, would expect a cooling trend as we head through
next week.

More active weather will persist across the Aleutian chain and
southern Bering Sea. As has been the case the past few days, there
is uncertainty in the track of a deep low south of the western
Aleutians on Monday. The latest models have trended further west
with the track, more toward the Kamchatka Peninsula. Thus, it's
looking like less impact of winds, seas, and rains along the
Aleutians. Even so, with an old front still sitting over the
Bering/Aleutians on Sunday, the arrival of this system on Monday
will tighten pressure gradients and the Aleutians can still
expect some response in the form of strengthening winds and rain.
Behind this system, the Pacific storm track will shift south, as a
trough builds eastward across the north Pacific. These systems
could still impact the Aleutians/Bering depending on what happens
with the ridging over the northern Bering. With large model spread
in solutions, forecast confidence drops to low for Wednesday and
Thursday.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...Gales 173 175-178 185 412 413.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...BJB
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...DK
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...AP
MARINE/LONG TERM...SEB