Gale Warning 176, NWS Anchorage, AK

022 
FZAK51 PAFC 210057
CWFAER

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
357 PM AKST Wed Feb 20 2019

Coastal Waters Forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast
up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ197-211400-
357 PM AKST Wed Feb 20 2019
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A 1011 mb low 55 nm South of Homer moves to 45 nm Northwest of
Sitka at 995 mb for Thu afternoon. Its front pushes across the 
Gulf by Thu afternoon. High pressure builds into the Western Gulf 
through Fri afternoon. 

$$

PKZ119-211400-
Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare-
357 PM AKST Wed Feb 20 2019

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Gusts to 40 kt along the coast after
midnight. Seas 8 ft. Rain and snow.
.THU...W wind 40 kt. Gusts to 50 kt along the coast. Seas 13 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 35 kt. Gusts to 45 kt along the coast. Seas 14 
ft.
.FRI...N wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ120-211400-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point-
357 PM AKST Wed Feb 20 2019

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 25 kt shifting to SW in the late evening then becoming
NW after midnight. Seas 7 ft. Rain and snow.
.THU...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...E wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ121-211400-
Resurrection Bay-
357 PM AKST Wed Feb 20 2019

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Snow.
.THU...N wind 35 kt. Gusts to 45 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU NIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Gusts to 40 kt. Seas 6 ft. Freezing 
spray.
.FRI...N wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT THROUGH MON...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ125-211400-
Prince William Sound-
357 PM AKST Wed Feb 20 2019

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE wind increasing to 25 kt. Seas building to 4 ft. Snow.
.THU...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft subsiding to 4 ft after
midnight.
.FRI...N wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT THROUGH MON...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ126-211400-
Port Valdez-
357 PM AKST Wed Feb 20 2019

.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming NE 10 kt after
midnight. Seas 2 ft. Snow.
.THU...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT THROUGH MON...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ127-211400-
Valdez Narrows-
357 PM AKST Wed Feb 20 2019

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray. Snow.
.THU...NE wind 20 kt increasing to 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas
3 ft. Snow.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ128-211400-
Valdez Arm-
357 PM AKST Wed Feb 20 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Snow.
.THU...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Snow.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ129-211400-
Passage Canal-
357 PM AKST Wed Feb 20 2019

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray. Snow.
.THU...W wind 35 kt. Gusts to 45 kt near Whittier. Seas 5 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Gusts to 40 kt near Whittier. Seas 5 ft. 
Freezing spray.
.FRI...W wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...W wind 20 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...E wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ130-211400-
West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-
357 PM AKST Wed Feb 20 2019

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Snow.
.THU...W wind 35 kt. Gusts to 50 kt out of western bays and passes. Seas
10 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...E wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ131-211400-
Barren Islands East-
357 PM AKST Wed Feb 20 2019

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 3increasing to 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain with snow.
.THU...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 11 ft building to 16 ft in the
afternoon.
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ132-211400-
Marmot Island to Sitkinak-
357 PM AKST Wed Feb 20 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft. Rain.
.THU...W wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.FRI...W wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ136-211400-
Chiniak Bay-
357 PM AKST Wed Feb 20 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.THU...W wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ137-211400-
Marmot Bay-
357 PM AKST Wed Feb 20 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 10 kt becoming W 20 kt after midnight. Seas 3
ft. Rain.
.THU...W wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ138-211400-
Shelikof Strait-
357 PM AKST Wed Feb 20 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt increasing to 30 kt after midnight. Seas
7 ft. Rain and snow.
.THU...W wind 30 kt. Gusts to 55 kt out of western bays and passes. Seas
7 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...E wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON...E wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ139-211400-
Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede-
357 PM AKST Wed Feb 20 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Freezing spray. Snow.
.THU...W wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt after midnight.
Seas 5 ft subsiding to 3 ft after midnight.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT THROUGH MON...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ140-211400-
Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-
357 PM AKST Wed Feb 20 2019

.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Freezing spray. Snow.
.THU...SW wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon.
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 10 kt.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt.
.SAT...NE wind 15 kt.
.SUN...NE wind 10 kt.
.MON...NE wind 15 kt.

$$

PKZ141-211400-
Kachemak Bay-
357 PM AKST Wed Feb 20 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 10 kt becoming NW 15 kt after midnight. Seas 2
ft. Snow.
.THU...W wind 25 kt. Gusts to 35 kt near the Inlet. Seas 8 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt becoming N 10 kt after midnight. Gusts to
35 kt near the Inlet in the evening. Seas 8 ft subsiding to 2 ft 
after midnight.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

347 
FZAK51 PAFC 211242
CWFAER

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
342 AM AKST Thu Feb 21 2019

Coastal Waters Forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast
up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ197-220115-
342 AM AKST Thu Feb 21 2019
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A 998 mb low near Middleton Island will move to the northeastern 
Gulf Thu afternoon. The associated front over the central and 
western Gulf will dissipate Thu night. High pressure builds over 
the Gulf Fri.


$$

PKZ119-220115-
Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare-
342 AM AKST Thu Feb 21 2019

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E wind 25 kt becoming NW 35 kt by late morning. seas 8 ft 
building to 12 ft. 
.TONIGHT...NW wind 35 kt. Gusts to 55 kt out of the Copper River
Delta. Seas 14 ft. Freezing spray near the coast.
.FRI...N wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. Freezing spray near the Coast.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ120-220115-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point-
342 AM AKST Thu Feb 21 2019

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW wind 25 kt increasing to 35 kt late this morning. Seas 8 ft
building to 12 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 35 kt diminishing to 30 kt after midnight. Seas 
12 ft. Freezing spray near the coast.
.FRI...NW wind 30 kt becoming N 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 8 ft.
Freezing spray near the coast.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ121-220115-
Resurrection Bay-
342 AM AKST Thu Feb 21 2019

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...N wind 35 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TONIGHT...N wind 35 kt. Seas 7 ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI...N wind 35 kt diminishing to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas
7 ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ125-220115-
Prince William Sound-
342 AM AKST Thu Feb 21 2019

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NW wind increasing to 35 kt. Seas building to 7 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI...N wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ126-220115-
Port Valdez-
342 AM AKST Thu Feb 21 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 20 kt. Gusts to 35 kt. Seas 4 ft. Snow. 
.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Gusts to 40 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI...E wind 25 kt. gusts to 40 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ127-220115-
Valdez Narrows-
342 AM AKST Thu Feb 21 2019

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 30 kt becoming N 40 kt in the afternoon. Seas 4
ft. Snow. Freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...N wind 40 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI...N wind 35 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ128-220115-
Valdez Arm-
342 AM AKST Thu Feb 21 2019

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. Snow.
.TONIGHT...N wind 35 kt. Seas 7 ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI...N wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ129-220115-
Passage Canal-
342 AM AKST Thu Feb 21 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...W wind increasing to 30 kt. Gusts to 40 kt near Whittier. 
Seas 5 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Gusts to 45 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI...W wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. Gusts to 45 kt in the morning. Freezing
spray.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ130-220115-
West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-
342 AM AKST Thu Feb 21 2019

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 35 kt becoming W 50 kt in the afternoon. Seas 12 
ft. Freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...W wind 45 kt. Seas 12 ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI...NW wind 30 kt becoming NE 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 9 ft
subsiding to 4 ft in the afternoon. Freezing spray.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...E wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ131-220115-
Barren Islands East-
342 AM AKST Thu Feb 21 2019

...STORM WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW wind 40 kt increasing to 50 kt in the afternoon. Seas
19 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 50 kt diminishing to 40 kt after midnight. Seas
20 ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft subsiding to 7 ft in the afternoon.
Freezing spray.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ132-220115-
Marmot Island to Sitkinak-
342 AM AKST Thu Feb 21 2019

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.MON...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ136-220115-
Chiniak Bay-
342 AM AKST Thu Feb 21 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI...NW wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas
2 ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 1 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ137-220115-
Marmot Bay-
342 AM AKST Thu Feb 21 2019

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 35 kt diminishing to 25 kt after midnight. Seas
5 ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ138-220115-
Shelikof Strait-
342 AM AKST Thu Feb 21 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI...W wind 20 kt in the morning becoming variable 10 kt. Seas
4 ft subsiding to 2 ft in the afternoon. Freezing spray.
.FRI NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...E wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON...E wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ139-220115-
Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede-
342 AM AKST Thu Feb 21 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW wind 15 kt becoming W 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3
ft building to 6 ft in the afternoon. Freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt after midnight. Seas
6 ft subsiding to 4 ft after midnight. Freezing spray.
.FRI...N wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ140-220115-
Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-
342 AM AKST Thu Feb 21 2019

.TODAY...N wind 15 kt becoming W wind 10 kt. Seas in ice free waters
1 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 10 kt increasing to 15 kt after midnight. Seas
in ice free waters 1 ft.
.FRI...N wind 10 kt in the morning becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas in ice free waters 1 ft. Areas of freezing fog.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas in ice free waters 2 ft.
.SAT...N wind 10 kt. Seas in ice free waters 2 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas in ice free waters 2
ft.
.MON...NE wind 10 kt. Seas in ice free waters 2 ft.

$$

PKZ141-220115-
Kachemak Bay-
342 AM AKST Thu Feb 21 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW wind 15 kt becoming W 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2
ft building to 8 ft in the afternoon.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 25 kt becoming N 15 kt after midnight. Seas 6
ft subsiding to 2 ft after midnight. Freezing spray.
.FRI...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

967 
FZAK51 PAFC 220056
CWFAER

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
356 PM AKST Thu Feb 21 2019

Coastal Waters Forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast
up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ197-221415-
356 PM AKST Thu Feb 21 2019
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A 990 mb low 100 nm Southwest of Yakutat exits the Southeast Gulf
of Alaska Fri morning leaving gusty NW flow in its wake. High 
pressure spreads over the Gulf of Alaska through Sat afternoon.

$$

PKZ119-221415-
Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare-
356 PM AKST Thu Feb 21 2019

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 35 kt. Gusts to 55 kt out of the Copper River
Delta. Seas 13 ft.
.FRI...N wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ120-221415-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point-
356 PM AKST Thu Feb 21 2019

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 40 kt diminishing to 30 kt after midnight. Gusts
to 55 out of northern bays and passes. Seas 12 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 30 kt becoming N 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ121-221415-
Resurrection Bay-
356 PM AKST Thu Feb 21 2019

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...N wind 35 kt with gusts to 55 KT near Seward. Seas 7 ft. 
Freezing spray.
.FRI...N wind 35 kt diminishing to 20 kt in the afternoon. Gusts to
45 kt near Seward in the morning. Seas 7 ft subsiding to 4 ft in the
afternoon. Freezing spray.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt after midnight. Seas 3
ft. Freezing spray.
.SAT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ125-221415-
Prince William Sound-
356 PM AKST Thu Feb 21 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Gusts to 40 kt out of northern bays and
passes. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt after midnight. Seas 3
ft.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ126-221415-
Port Valdez-
356 PM AKST Thu Feb 21 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Gusts to 40 kt near Valdez in the evening. Seas
5 ft.
.FRI...E wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt after midnight. Seas 
3 ft. Freezing spray.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ127-221415-
Valdez Narrows-
356 PM AKST Thu Feb 21 2019

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...N wind increasing to 40 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI...N wind 35 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray.
.SAT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ128-221415-
Valdez Arm-
356 PM AKST Thu Feb 21 2019

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind increasing to 35 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...N wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ129-221415-
Passage Canal-
356 PM AKST Thu Feb 21 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...W wind 30 kt with gusts to 50 KT near Whittier. Seas 5 
ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI...W wind 25 kt with gusts to 40 KT near Whittier. Seas 4 ft. 
Freezing spray.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt after midnight. Seas 
2 ft. Freezing spray.
.SAT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ130-221415-
West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-
356 PM AKST Thu Feb 21 2019

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 45 kt. Seas 13 ft. Freezing spray along the west
coast.
.FRI...NW wind 30 kt becoming N 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 10 ft subsiding
to 5 ft in the afternoon. Freezing spray in the morning.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...E wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ131-221415-
Barren Islands East-
356 PM AKST Thu Feb 21 2019

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 50 kt diminishing to 40 kt after midnight. Seas 16
ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. Freezing spray in the morning.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 15 kt in the evening becoming variable 10 kt. Seas
5 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ132-221415-
Marmot Island to Sitkinak-
356 PM AKST Thu Feb 21 2019

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt in the evening becoming variable 10 kt.
Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...E wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ136-221415-
Chiniak Bay-
356 PM AKST Thu Feb 21 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt with gusts to 45 KT. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less
than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...E wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ137-221415-
Marmot Bay-
356 PM AKST Thu Feb 21 2019

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 35 kt diminishing to 25 kt after midnight. Seas
5 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less
than 10 kt. Seas 1 ft building to 3 ft after midnight.
.SAT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ138-221415-
Shelikof Strait-
356 PM AKST Thu Feb 21 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Gusts to 45 kt out of western bays and 
passes. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI...W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft subsiding to 2 ft in the afternoon.
.FRI NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...E wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...E wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ139-221415-
Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede-
356 PM AKST Thu Feb 21 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt after midnight. Seas
8 ft subsiding to 4 ft after midnight. Freezing spray.
.FRI...N wind 10 kt becoming NE 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. Freezing spray.
.SAT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ140-221415-
Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-
356 PM AKST Thu Feb 21 2019

.TONIGHT...NW wind 10 kt increasing to 15 kt after midnight. Seas in
ice free waters 2 ft.
.FRI...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas in ice free waters 2 ft. 
Areas of freezing fog.
.FRI NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas in ice free waters 
2 ft. Areas of freezing fog.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas in ice free waters 2 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas in ice free waters 2 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NE wind 10 kt. Seas in ice free waters 2 ft.

$$

PKZ141-221415-
Kachemak Bay-
356 PM AKST Thu Feb 21 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 25 kt becoming N 15 kt after midnight...strongest
near the Inlet. Seas 6 ft subsiding to 2 ft after midnight.
.FRI...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

724 
FZAK51 PAFC 221233
CWFAER

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
333 AM AKST Fri Feb 22 2019

Coastal Waters Forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast
up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ197-230200-
333 AM AKST Fri Feb 22 2019
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A front over the central Gulf will dissipate Fri afternoon. High
pressure builds over the Gulf through Sun.

$$

PKZ119-230200-
Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare-
333 AM AKST Fri Feb 22 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...N wind 30 kt. Gusts to 45 kt out of the Copper River Delta. Seas
10 ft.
.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Gusts to 30 kt out of the Copper River
Delta. Seas 6 ft. Freezing spray near the coast.
.SAT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ120-230200-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point-
333 AM AKST Fri Feb 22 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 30 kt becoming N 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 8 ft.
.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing spray near the coast.
.SAT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ121-230200-
Resurrection Bay-
333 AM AKST Fri Feb 22 2019

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...N wind 35 kt diminishing to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas
7 ft subsiding to 4 ft in the afternoon. Freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray.
.SAT...N wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas
3 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...N wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ125-230200-
Prince William Sound-
333 AM AKST Fri Feb 22 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...N wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt after midnight. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.SAT NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ126-230200-
Port Valdez-
333 AM AKST Fri Feb 22 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...E wind 25 kt with gusts to 35 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing 
spray.
.TONIGHT...E wind 20 kt diminishing to 10 kt after midnight. Seas
4 ft subsiding to 2 ft after midnight. Freezing spray.
.SAT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ127-230200-
Valdez Narrows-
333 AM AKST Fri Feb 22 2019

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...N wind 35 kt diminishing to 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas 4 
ft. 
.TONIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray.
.SAT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ128-230200-
Valdez Arm-
333 AM AKST Fri Feb 22 2019

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...N wind 35 kt diminishing to 25 kt this afternoon. Seas 7 
ft.
.TONIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ129-230200-
Passage Canal-
333 AM AKST Fri Feb 22 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...W wind 25 kt with gusts to 35 kt. Winds diminishing to 20 kt
in the afternoon. Seas 4 ft. 
.TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt after midnight. Seas
2 ft. Freezing spray.
.SAT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ130-230200-
West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-
333 AM AKST Fri Feb 22 2019

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 35 kt becoming N 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 10 ft
subsiding to 5 ft in the afternoon. Freezing spray this morning.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Freezing spray.
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...E wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ131-230200-
Barren Islands East-
333 AM AKST Fri Feb 22 2019

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 35 kt diminishing to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas
14 ft subsiding to 8 ft in the afternoon.
.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt in the evening becoming variable 10 kt.
Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ132-230200-
Marmot Island to Sitkinak-
333 AM AKST Fri Feb 22 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY AND SATURDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas
9 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 kt in the evening becoming variable 10 kt.
Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...E wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ136-230200-
Chiniak Bay-
333 AM AKST Fri Feb 22 2019

.TODAY...NW wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas
2 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less
than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming SE 15 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 1 ft building to 4 ft in the afternoon.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ137-230200-
Marmot Bay-
333 AM AKST Fri Feb 22 2019

.TODAY...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less
than 10 kt. Seas 1 ft building to 3 ft after midnight.
.SAT...SE wind 10 kt increasing to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas
4 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ138-230200-
Shelikof Strait-
333 AM AKST Fri Feb 22 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SATURDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 20 kt in the morning becoming variable 10 kt. Seas
4 ft subsiding to 2 ft in the afternoon.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 15 kt increasing to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3
ft building to 8 ft in the afternoon.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN...E wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...E wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ139-230200-
Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede-
333 AM AKST Fri Feb 22 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SATURDAY...

.TODAY...N wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Freezing spray.
.SAT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Freezing spray.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ140-230200-
Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-
333 AM AKST Fri Feb 22 2019

.TODAY...N wind 10 kt in the morning becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas in ice free waters 2 ft.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas in ice free waters
2 ft. Areas of freezing fog.
.SAT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas in ice free waters 1 ft. Patchy
freezing fog.
.SAT NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas in ice free waters 2 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas in ice free waters
1 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NE wind 10 kt. Seas in ice free waters 2 ft.

$$

PKZ141-230200-
Kachemak Bay-
333 AM AKST Fri Feb 22 2019

.TODAY...NE wind 15 kt becoming N 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2
ft.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming NE 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
509 PM AKST Tue Feb 19 2019

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
The overall synoptic pattern remains much the same as the last
forecast package with an upper level ridge positioned over
mainland Alaska with a trough to the west over the Bering. The
main weather driver is the vertically stacked low that moved up
from the North Pacific yesterday to the central Aleutians and
eastern Bering this afternoon. The front arcs through Bristol Bay
then south across the Alaska Peninsula and Southwest. There is a
150-160 knot jet along this front supporting this low along with a
strong plume of moisture advecting along this frontal boundary
from 25 north latitude. Currently along the front and in advance
of the low we are seeing strong gusts and primarily snow showers
for across the eastern Aleutians into the Alaska Peninsula.
Conditions are clearing from the west across Southcentral Alaska
as the upper trough that moved through last night continues to
push east. This is bringing dry conditions, gusty outflow winds, and
even blue skies to the Anchorage Bowl, before the pattern shifts
for tomorrow afternoon.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
Models are in good consensus with the overall synoptic setup
through the forecast package, including the low lifting north from
the central to northern Bering through tomorrow afternoon. The
high resolution models are also in strong agreement bringing ample
moisture supporting the higher QPF amounts across the west side of
the Alaska Range tonight that migrate to the Cook Inlet and
Southcentral Alaska regions through Wednesday. The models are
also in good agreement with the placement and intensity of the
second low approaching the western Aleutians tomorrow afternoon.

Since there is strong model run to run consistency, this is
leading to high confidence in model solutions for snow returning
to Southcentral Alaska starting tomorrow afternoon. At this point,
the NAM is slightly further north with the surface low and thus,
the most bullish with the QPF. More details for the evolution of
this snow event will follow in the short term south central Alaska
discussion.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...VFR conditions and light winds will persist through the
night with some patchy fog possible after midnight into the
morning hours. Snow is expected to return to the airport late
tomorrow afternoon ushering in IFR CIGS and VSBY tomorrow evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
(Tonight through Thursday evening)

The forecast remains on track as model consensus is good, leading
a higher than average forecast. A strong mid-level disturbance,
currently in the eastern Bering, will cross the Alaska Range and
into our neck of the woods tomorrow. This system has abundant
moisture with it, as it has tapped the tropics as a moisture
feed. A strong jet to our south will place Southcentral in the
left exit region of the mid and upper-level jet streams leading to
abundant lift, aided by strong vorticity advection. All of these
features will help induce cyclogenesis (low pressure development
at the surface) over Prince William Sound, with the deformation
zone (an area of lift where winds tend to converge as you increase
in height) looking to set up along the the western Kenai
Peninsula, through the west side of Anchorage, into the western
Matanuska Valley.

As the surface low develops and low level winds change directions,
this should allow this band to move further inland towards the
upper Hillside and eastern portions of the Matanuska Valley. As
this occurs, orographic lifting will further enhance precipitation
efficiency, with a pretty uniform distribution of snowfall
accumulation expected, which looks to be in the 4 to 8 inch range
for these areas. Further south along the western Kenai, both of
these processes will help boost snowfall totals by a couple
inches. If the latest trends in the models depicting the surface
low being slower to depart to our east end up verifying, the
current snowfall forecast will likely need to be increased.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...

In the wake of the recent frontal passage a surface ridge has
moved into Southwest Alaska. The latest nighttime microphysics
satellite image shows an area of fog around Bethel and extending
northward. But the fog hasn't been able to make it south of the
Kuskokwim mountains. With that surface ridge in place, today will
be the respite between storms. Looking down range, there is a
mature low south of Adak. The latest AMSU (Advanced Microwave
Sounding Unit) has the richest portion of the moisture plume south
of Adak, Unalaska and Sand Point. Expect the edge of the
precipitation shield to continue to push north and east today but
it won't actually reach SW AK until tomorrow morning. The thermal
profiles of the atmosphere suggest that this will be a mixed mode
event meaning, expect some snow and potentially a change in
precipitation type at least for the Bristol Bay area and the
AKPEN. Portions of SW AK that are further inland look
substantially colder and those communities (such as Bethel, Aniak
and Sleetmute) can expect a fresh blanket of snow.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...

The latest ASCAT/Advanced Scatterometer pass has detected gale
force winds south of the Aleutians and in the Western Pacific.
There is a mature low south of Adak with a well-defined occlusion
and warm front. The latest GOES Airmass image already has the
associated cirrus shield over the Pribilof Islands and clouds
wrapped behind the low near Shemya with the cold front extending
into the North Pacific. The storm is expected to intensify as it
moves northeastward bring gale and storm force winds to the
Bering, as well as rough seas and another round of precipitation.
All of the major operational models suggest that there is a
thermal ridge that will develop bringing a wedge of warm air into
the Bering. There is no doubt that cold air will continue to
advect on the back side of this frontal boundary. However, this
storm absolutely has a warm sector. Rain and snow will accompany
this system.

&&

.MARINE (Days 3 through 5)...
Thursday through Saturday continue to look windy across the
Bering Sea as a strong low moves up the Kamchatka Peninsula. Winds
ahead of the low in the central Bering are still expected to be
around gale force, but the forecast winds around the low center
have increased in strength and storm force winds are expected for
the Bering Sea and just north of the western Aleutians through
Friday. Saturday appears to be a bit of a break as most of the
energy will go into a low moving up into the central Aleutians,
but gales can be expected to persist across the central Bering.

In the Gulf of Alaska, a low moving into the Prince William Sound
and sliding off to the east on Thursday will increase
northwesterly winds through the gaps. These are expected to be
gale force through the Barren Islands and into the Gulf of Alaska
but higher gusts are possible, especially along the coast in the
gap areas.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...
The long term forecast continues to be on track from yesterday,
with a ridge of high pressure building in over mainland Alaska,
pushing the main storm track westward over the Bering Sea. Models
are trending towards a stronger high pressure system, which means
that it looks less and less likely for precip to make its way
inland from any lingering fronts over the weekend. This high is an
unusually warm high pressure system for this time of year,
looking more like a spring time high pressure system than the cold
winter highs we see in late January. Solar heating is still
marginal, so spring is not here yet...but temperature forecasts
for the weekend and early next week across the mainland look to be
a bit of a challenge. Strong high pressure like this can also
bring ample valley fog the longer it persists. If this occurs, it
will further complicate the temperature forecasts.

As for the Bering Sea, the usual active storm track of the winter
will continue. The storms moving through aren't expected to be
unusually strong, but the amount of warm air aloft will bring rain
much further north than we normally expect at this time of year.
Warm and wet conditions are expected to continue for the eastern
half of the Bering through early next week.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Winter Weather Advisories: 101, 111, 121, 145, 141.
MARINE...Storm Warning 177-185 412 414
		 Gale Warning 119 125 170 173 175 176 411 413
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...AH/SA
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...PD
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...MM
MARINE/LONG TERM...LF