Gale Warning 159, NWS Anchorage, AK

516 
FZAK52 PAFC 160055
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
355 PM AKST Fri Feb 15 2019

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-161345-
355 PM AKST Fri Feb 15 2019
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A front over the Bering will dissipate Sat afternoon. A 994 mb low 
will develop 140 nm southeast of Adak Sat morning then it will move 
inland over Bethel at 1000 mb Sun morning. A 967 mb North Pacific low
will move to 215 nm south of Shemya Sun morning then it will move to
240 nm northeast of Shemya at 968 mb Sun afternoon.

$$

PKZ150-161345-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
355 PM AKST Fri Feb 15 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain.
.SAT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.MON...W wind 40 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft.

$$

PKZ155-161345-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
355 PM AKST Fri Feb 15 2019

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt becoming NE after midnight. Seas 11 ft.
.SAT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.SUN...W wind 40 kt. Seas 22 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 45 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.MON...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.TUE...S wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.WED...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 16 ft.

$$

PKZ160-161345-
Bristol Bay-
355 PM AKST Fri Feb 15 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt becoming NW 10 kt after midnight. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 15 kt increasing to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas
6 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.TUE...S wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.WED...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ165-161345-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
355 PM AKST Fri Feb 15 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt in the evening becoming variable 10 kt.
Seas 11 ft.
.SAT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SUN...W wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 40 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.MON...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 22 ft.
.TUE...S wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.WED...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

PKZ170-161345-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
355 PM AKST Fri Feb 15 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt becoming S 15 kt after midnight. Seas
15 ft.
.SAT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft. Rain and snow.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.  and rain showers.
.SUN...S wind 40 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 23 ft.
.MON...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 23 ft.
.TUE...S wind 30 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.WED...W wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

PKZ171-161345-
Unalaska Bay-
355 PM AKST Fri Feb 15 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 10 kt becoming SE after midnight. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 2 ft building to 5 ft in the afternoon.
Rain and snow.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 15 kt becoming NW 30 kt after midnight. Seas
2 ft building to 8 ft after midnight. Snow showers and rain
showers.
.SUN...S wind 35 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...S wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED...W wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ172-161345-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
355 PM AKST Fri Feb 15 2019

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt becoming E after midnight. Seas 14 ft.
.SAT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft. Rain and snow.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 30 kt in the evening becoming NW 40 kt. Seas 14 
ft.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...SW wind 45 kt. Seas 22 ft.
.MON...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 23 ft.
.TUE...S wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.WED...W wind 20 kt. Seas 15 ft.

$$

PKZ173-161345-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
355 PM AKST Fri Feb 15 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 30 kt becoming S 20 kt after midnight. Seas
20 ft subsiding to 12 ft after midnight.
.SAT...SE wind 20 kt becoming N in the afternoon. Seas 10 ft. Snow
showers and rain showers.
.SAT NIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN...S wind 45 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 26 ft.
.MON...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 22 ft.
.TUE...S wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.WED...W wind 20 kt. Seas 15 ft.

$$

PKZ174-161345-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
355 PM AKST Fri Feb 15 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 20 ft subsiding to 15 ft after
midnight.
.SAT...E wind 20 kt becoming N in the afternoon. Seas 13 ft. Rain
and snow.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SUN...S wind 50 kt. Seas 26 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 28 ft.
.MON...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 24 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.WED...W wind 20 kt. Seas 16 ft.

$$

PKZ175-161345-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
355 PM AKST Fri Feb 15 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 30 kt becoming S 20 kt after midnight. Seas
15 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 20 kt becoming NW in the afternoon. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN...S wind 50 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 45 kt. Seas 24 ft.
.MON...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ176-161345-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
355 PM AKST Fri Feb 15 2019

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 18 ft.  and rain showers.
.SAT...E wind 30 kt becoming NW 40 kt in the afternoon. Seas 14 ft. 
and rain showers.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SUN...S wind 50 kt. Seas 30 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 30 ft.
.MON...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.TUE...W wind 25 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.WED...W wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

PKZ177-161345-
Adak to Kiska-
355 PM AKST Fri Feb 15 2019

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.SAT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt becoming SE 45 kt after midnight. Seas
15 ft.
.SUN...S wind 55 kt. Seas 32 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 45 kt. Seas 27 ft.
.MON...S wind 35 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 16 ft.

$$

PKZ178-161345-
Kiska to Attu-
355 PM AKST Fri Feb 15 2019

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 20 ft. Snow showers.
.SAT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft. Freezing spray.
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 35 kt becoming SE 45 kt after midnight. Seas
15 ft. Snow showers.
.SUN...NW wind 50 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 40 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...W wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.WED...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 22 ft.

$$

PKZ179-161345-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
355 PM AKST Fri Feb 15 2019

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.SAT...S wind 25 kt becoming SE 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 14
ft. Snow showers.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft. Snow showers.
.SUN...S wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 40 kt. Seas 29 ft.
.MON...SW wind 45 kt. Seas 30 ft.
.TUE...S wind 25 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.WED...W wind 25 kt. Seas 16 ft.

$$

PKZ180-161345-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
355 PM AKST Fri Feb 15 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SAT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 25 kt becoming NW after midnight. Seas 8 ft.
Snow.
.SUN...W wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.MON...SW wind 45 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.TUE...S wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.WED...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ181-161345-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
355 PM AKST Fri Feb 15 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 11 ft. Freezing
spray north of Cape Newenham after midnight.
.SAT...S wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas in
ice free waters 10 ft. Freezing spray in the morning.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt becoming N after midnight. Seas in ice
free waters 6 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 6 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 35 kt. Seas in ice free waters 9 ft.
.MON...SW wind 40 kt. Seas in ice free waters 17 ft.
.TUE...S wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 14 ft.
.WED...SW wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 7 ft.

$$

PKZ185-161345-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
355 PM AKST Fri Feb 15 2019

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...S wind 35 kt E of Saint Matthew Island...S 45 kt W of
Saint Matthew Island. Seas 27 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 23 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 20 kt E of Saint Matthew Island...S 25 kt W of 
Saint Matthew Island. Seas 15 ft.
.SUN...S wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 40 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.MON...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 22 ft.
.TUE...S wind 25 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.WED...W wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

239 
FZAK52 PAFC 161235
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
335 AM AKST Sat Feb 16 2019

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-170200-
335 AM AKST Sat Feb 16 2019
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A Pacific low crosses the Alaska Peninsula tonight, reaching 59N 
162W Sunday morning at 998 mb, before moving onshore by early 
Sunday afternoon. At the same time, a 973 mb low at 270 nm south
of Shemya, sending a front into the western Aleutians. This low 
moves to 60 nm north of Saint Paul at 985 mb Monday morning, with 
a front moving into the eastern Bering and Alaska Peninsula.

$$

PKZ150-170200-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
335 AM AKST Sat Feb 16 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.MON...W wind 35 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.WED...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

PKZ155-170200-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
335 AM AKST Sat Feb 16 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft building to 15 ft in the
afternoon. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.SUN...W wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 45 kt. Seas 22 ft.
.MON...W wind 40 kt. Seas 23 ft.
.TUE...S wind 35 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.WED...W wind 35 kt. Seas 17 ft.

$$

PKZ160-170200-
Bristol Bay-
335 AM AKST Sat Feb 16 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 15 kt increasing to 30 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 6 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ165-170200-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
335 AM AKST Sat Feb 16 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt becoming SW after midnight. Seas 11 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 45 kt. Seas 22 ft.
.MON...W wind 45 kt. Seas 28 ft.
.TUE...S wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.WED...W wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ170-170200-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
335 AM AKST Sat Feb 16 2019

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 20 kt becoming NE 30 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 11 ft. Snow showers.
.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 25 kt becoming S 45 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 13 ft. 
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 50 kt. Seas 30 ft.
.MON...W wind 45 kt. Seas 29 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.WED...W wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ171-170200-
Unalaska Bay-
335 AM AKST Sat Feb 16 2019

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. Snow.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. Snow and rain.
.SUN...SW wind 15 kt becoming S 35 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 2 ft building to 5 ft in the afternoon. Snow showers and 
widespread rain showers.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...W wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ172-170200-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
335 AM AKST Sat Feb 16 2019

...STORM WARNING SUNDAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft. Snow and rain showers.
.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 25 kt becoming S 50 kt in the afternoon. Seas 13 ft
building to 21 ft in the afternoon. Widespread rain showers.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 45 kt. Seas 30 ft.
.MON...W wind 40 kt. Seas 28 ft.
.TUE...S wind 35 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.WED...W wind 35 kt. Seas 20 ft.

$$

PKZ173-170200-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
335 AM AKST Sat Feb 16 2019

...STORM WARNING SUNDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 20 kt in the morning becoming variable 10 kt.
Seas 10 ft. Snow showers.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN...S wind 40 kt increasing to 50 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 12 ft building to 23 ft in the afternoon. Widespread snow and 
rain showers.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 50 kt. Seas 30 ft.
.MON...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 22 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.WED...W wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ174-170200-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
335 AM AKST Sat Feb 16 2019

...STORM WARNING SUNDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 15 kt. Seas 12 ft. Snow showers and rain showers.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SUN...S wind 50 kt. Seas 16 ft building to 28 ft in the
afternoon. Widespread snow showers and rain.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 50 kt. Seas 37 ft.
.MON...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 25 ft.
.TUE...S wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.WED...W wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft.

$$

PKZ175-170200-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
335 AM AKST Sat Feb 16 2019

...STORM WARNING SUNDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 50 kt. Seas 19 ft. Widespread rain and snow
showers.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 50 kt. Seas 22 ft.
.MON...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.TUE...W wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

PKZ176-170200-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
335 AM AKST Sat Feb 16 2019

...STORM WARNING SUNDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 20 kt becoming NW 30 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 13 ft. Snow showers.
.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt becoming S 35 kt after midnight. 
Seas 13 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 55 kt. Seas 26 ft building to 40 ft in the
afternoon. Rain showers and widespread snow showers.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 55 kt. Seas 40 ft.
.MON...S wind 25 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.WED...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

PKZ177-170200-
Adak to Kiska-
335 AM AKST Sat Feb 16 2019

...STORM WARNING SUNDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt becoming SE 45 kt after midnight. 
Seas 15 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 50 kt becoming W in the afternoon. Bering side,
seas 16 ft. Pacific side, seas 26 ft building to 33 ft in the 
afternoon. Widespread snow and rain showers.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 45 kt. Seas 26 ft.
.MON...S wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.TUE...W wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.WED...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 21 ft.

$$

PKZ178-170200-
Kiska to Attu-
335 AM AKST Sat Feb 16 2019

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 30 kt becoming SE 40 kt after midnight. 
Seas 15 ft. Snow showers.
.SUN...NE wind 40 kt except NW 25 kt from Shemya W. Seas 16 ft.
Snow showers.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.MON...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.TUE...W wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.WED...S wind 40 kt. Seas 22 ft.

$$

PKZ179-170200-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
335 AM AKST Sat Feb 16 2019

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 20 kt. Seas 15 ft. Snow showers.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 11 ft. Snow showers.
.SUN...Variable wind 10 kt becoming SE 35 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 10 ft. Widespread snow showers.
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 40 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.MON...W wind 40 kt. Seas 23 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.WED...W wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

PKZ180-170200-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
335 AM AKST Sat Feb 16 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 20 kt becoming E 30 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 10 ft.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. Freezing spray.
.SUN...W wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Freezing spray.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.MON...W wind 40 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.TUE...S wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.WED...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ181-170200-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
335 AM AKST Sat Feb 16 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...S wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 10 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt becoming NE after midnight. 
Seas in ice free waters 7 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 5 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 9 ft.
.MON...NW wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 9 ft.
.TUE...S wind 35 kt. Seas in ice free waters 9 ft.
.WED...SW wind 35 kt. Seas in ice free waters 11 ft.

$$

PKZ185-170200-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
335 AM AKST Sat Feb 16 2019

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E of Saint Matthew Island, S wind 30 kt. W of Saint
Matthew Island, SW wind 40 kt becoming S 30 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 24 ft.
.TONIGHT...E of Saint Matthew Island, S wind 25 kt becoming SW 15
kt after midnight. W of Saint Matthew Island, SW wind 25 kt. 
Seas 16 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 15 kt E of Saint Matthew Island... SW 25 kt W of
Saint Matthew Island. Seas 13 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.MON...W wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.WED...W wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

584 
FZAK52 PAFC 170054
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
354 PM AKST Sat Feb 16 2019

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-171345-
354 PM AKST Sat Feb 16 2019
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A 998 mb low 135 nm southwest of Cold Bay moves to 70 nm south of 
Unalakleet at 995 mb by Sun afternoon. Its front wraps over Southwest
Alaska through Mon afternoon. A 973 mb low 250 nm south of Kiska Sun
morning drives to Southwest Alaska at 1000 mb by Mon afternoon. A 
997 mb low 260 nm west of Attu and its front approach the Western 
Aleutians for Mon afternoon.

$$

PKZ150-171345-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
354 PM AKST Sat Feb 16 2019

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt increasing to 40 kt after midnight.
Seas 14 ft building to 20 ft after midnight. Rain and snow.
.MON...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.WED...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.THU...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ155-171345-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
354 PM AKST Sat Feb 16 2019

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.SUN...W wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 45 kt. Seas 23 ft. Rain and snow.
.MON...W wind 40 kt. Seas 26 ft.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.TUE...S wind 35 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.WED...W wind 35 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.THU...W wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ160-171345-
Bristol Bay-
354 PM AKST Sat Feb 16 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft. Snow.
.SUN...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 20 kt in the evening increasing to 30 kt. Seas 9
ft. Widespread snow showers.
.MON...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 35 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU...W wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ165-171345-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
354 PM AKST Sat Feb 16 2019

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 kt becoming SW after midnight. Seas 12 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 45 kt. Seas 14 ft building to 26 ft after
midnight. From Port Moller E, seas 9 ft building to 15 ft after
midnight. Rain and snow.
.MON...SW wind 45 kt. Seas 29 ft.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 35 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.WED...W wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.THU...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ170-171345-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
354 PM AKST Sat Feb 16 2019

...STORM WARNING SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft. Snow and rain showers.
.SUN...SW wind 25 kt becoming S 45 kt in the afternoon. Seas 13
ft. Snow and rain.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 50 kt. Seas 30 ft.
.MON...W wind 45 kt. Seas 29 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.WED...W wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.THU...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ171-171345-
Unalaska Bay-
354 PM AKST Sat Feb 16 2019

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 10 kt in the evening increasing to 20 kt. Seas 7 
ft. Snow showers and rain showers.
.SUN...SW wind 15 kt becoming S 35 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft
building to 5 ft in the afternoon. Snow and rain.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain.
.MON...W wind 35 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...W wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ172-171345-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
354 PM AKST Sat Feb 16 2019

...STORM WARNING SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 25 kt becoming S 50 kt in the afternoon. Seas 13 ft
building to 21 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 45 kt. Seas 32 ft.
.MON...W wind 40 kt. Seas 29 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.WED...W wind 35 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.THU...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ173-171345-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
354 PM AKST Sat Feb 16 2019

...STORM WARNING SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN...S wind 30 kt increasing to 50 kt in the afternoon. Seas 11
ft building to 23 ft in the afternoon. Snow and rain.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 50 kt. Seas 30 ft.
.MON...W wind 35 kt. Seas 23 ft.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.WED...W wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU...S wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ174-171345-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
354 PM AKST Sat Feb 16 2019

...STORM WARNING SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SUN...S wind 35 kt in the morning increasing to 50 kt. Seas 16 ft 
building to 28 ft in the afternoon. Rain and snow.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 50 kt diminishing to 40 kt after midnight. Seas
38 ft.
.MON...W wind 30 kt. Seas 26 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.TUE...S wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.WED...W wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.THU...S wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ175-171345-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
354 PM AKST Sat Feb 16 2019

...STORM WARNING SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt becoming S after midnight. Seas 9 ft. Snow.
.SUN...SE wind 40 kt in the morning becoming S 50 kt. Seas 19 ft. 
Widespread rain showers and snow.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 50 kt diminishing to 35 kt after midnight. Seas 
21 ft.
.MON...W wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE...W wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.THU...S wind 40 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

PKZ176-171345-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
354 PM AKST Sat Feb 16 2019

...STORM WARNING SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt becoming S 35 kt after midnight. Seas 13
ft. Snow.
.SUN...SW wind 55 kt. Seas 26 ft building to 40 ft in the
afternoon. Rain and snow.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 55 kt diminishing to 40 kt after midnight.
Seas 39 ft subsiding to 30 ft after midnight.
.MON...W wind 25 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.WED...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.THU...S wind 35 kt. Seas 17 ft.

$$

PKZ177-171345-
Adak to Kiska-
354 PM AKST Sat Feb 16 2019

...STORM WARNING SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt becoming SE 45 kt after midnight. Seas
15 ft. Snow.
.SUN...SE wind 50 kt becoming W in the afternoon. Bering side,
seas 17 ft. Pacific side, seas 25 ft building to 33 ft in the 
afternoon. Widespread snow showers.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 45 kt diminishing to 30 kt after midnight.
Bering side, seas 18 ft. Pacific side, seas 30 ft subsiding to 20
ft after midnight.
.MON...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.TUE...W wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...S wind 40 kt. Seas 21 ft.

$$

PKZ178-171345-
Kiska to Attu-
354 PM AKST Sat Feb 16 2019

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...S wind 30 kt becoming SE 40 kt after midnight. Seas
15 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 40 kt except NW 25 kt from Shemya W. Seas 16 ft.
Snow showers.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.MON...S wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.TUE...W wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...S wind 40 kt. Seas 22 ft.

$$

PKZ179-171345-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
354 PM AKST Sat Feb 16 2019

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 kt in the evening becoming N. Seas 11 ft. Snow
showers.
.SUN...Variable wind 10 kt becoming SE 35 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 10 ft. Widespread snow showers.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 40 kt becoming W 35 kt after midnight. Seas 19 
ft. Widespread rain and snow showers.
.MON...W wind 40 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.WED...W wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.THU...S wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.

$$

PKZ180-171345-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
354 PM AKST Sat Feb 16 2019

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 30 kt becoming N 20 kt after midnight. Seas 9
ft. Freezing spray N of Cape Newenham. Snow.
.SUN...W wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Freezing spray in the morning N of 
Cape Newenham.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt in the evening increasing to 35 kt. Seas 
7 ft building to 13 ft after midnight. Freezing spray after midnight 
N of Cape Newenham. Widespread snow and rain showers.
.MON...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.TUE...S wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.WED...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.THU...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ181-171345-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
354 PM AKST Sat Feb 16 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt becoming N 15 kt after midnight. Seas in 
ice free waters 6 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 4 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt in the evening increasing to 30 kt. Seas 
in ice free waters 7 ft. Freezing spray.
.MON...N wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 7 ft.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 5 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 35 kt. Seas in ice free waters 9 ft.
.WED...SW wind 35 kt. Seas in ice free waters 11 ft.
.THU...SW wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 8 ft.

$$

PKZ185-171345-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
354 PM AKST Sat Feb 16 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt E of Saint Matthew Island...S 25 kt W of
Saint Matthew Island. Seas 17 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 15 kt E of Saint Matthew Island... SW 25 kt W of
Saint Matthew Island. Seas 12 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. Freezing spray N of Saint
Matthew Island.
.MON...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.WED...W wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.THU...S wind 25 kt. Seas 20 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
441 PM AKST Thu Feb 14 2019

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
A ridge is building aloft over mainland Alaska, and a short wave
trough extends from a vertically stacked low in the northern
Bering. These synoptic patterns combined are creating southerly
flow over much of the Bering, and weak offshore flow over the Gulf
of Alaska. The southerly fetch in the southwest is bringing in
warm and moist air to the Aleutian chain but most of the Bering is
encompassed by cooler air. Ahead of the ridge, there is
southeasterly flow over the western Gulf and northern Gulf coast.
At 30,000 ft, the jet stream is weakly meridional in nature and
maximum wind speeds are reaching 115 kts.

At the surface, a North Pacific low is advancing toward the
western Aleutians. A front extends in front of the low which is
pushing over the western Aleutians and into the southern Bering. A
second front, correlated with the short wave trough aloft, is
moving over the western mainland. This front is creating gusty
conditions and moderate to heavy snowfall. Blowing snow conditions
were reported on the Kuskokwim Delta coastline this morning.
These two fronts can easily be identified in infrared satellite
imagery as a band of increase cloud cover over the western
mainland, eastern Aleutians and into the northern Gulf.
Southcentral remains clear and dry under the ridge, and winds are
beginning to dwindle. Slowing winds in combination with clear
skies will cause temperatures to drop lower overnight throughout
Southcentral.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
The numerical models are in fairly good agreement for the short
term portion of the forecast (Saturday afternoon). By Saturday
afternoon there are some differences in the surface location near
the Alaska Peninsula. There are also some differences in how they
handle the moisture moving into Southcentral with this system
during the day Saturday. This creates some challenges with Pops
and snow amounts, so confidence in the forecast is below normal
today.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...VFR conditions and light winds are expected through Friday
afternoon.

&&
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through
3/Tonight through Sunday)...
A shortwave trough riding over the top of the ridge currently in
place over Southcentral will increase cloud cover across the
region overnight. As the trough slides east tonight, the
combination of subsidence and increased northerly flow from the
rebuilding of the ridge will allow for a brief uptick in the gusty
outflow winds through tomorrow morning. As the ridge crests over
Southcentral late tomorrow, a southwesterly flow aloft will
develop, driving a series of shortwave troughs across the area.

The first of these troughs and associated weak surface front will
move west to east across Southcentral late Friday night into
Saturday. Isentropic lift is expected to produce an area of light
snow from Cook Inlet north through the Susitna Valley. Snow
amounts, however, are expected to be very light across the region
given both the very dry air at the surface and the trend in recent
model runs of a weaker system. The best chance for measurable
snow with this system will be the upslope areas of the Talkeetna
and Chugach Mountains.

The upper-level ridge exits the region early Saturday as a surface
low east of Kodiak Island transitions into an open wave as it
lifts into the northern Gulf. This system gets absorbed into a
larger frontal system attached to a surface low south of the
AKPEN late Saturday/early Sunday. As both the low and the front
push north, widespread precipitation will develop along it. Snow
will quickly change to rain on Saturday for Kodiak Island with
snow overspreading the Kenai Peninsula and areas of Prince William
Sound late Saturday. An initial southerly push of warmer air
over the top of the colder air at the surface may lead to a brief
period of light snow in the Anchorage Bowl before the flow aloft
transitions to a downsloping southeasterly wind. Given the strong
southerly flow, snow is expected transition to rain along the
coast overnight Saturday into Sunday from Homer east into Prince
William Sound. The entire system then lifts northeast late Sunday
as the upper-level trough moves across Southcentral. Southeasterly
gap winds (Passage Canal, Turnagain Arm, etc.) will also increase
ahead of the frontal system from late Saturday through early
Sunday.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2...Friday and
Saturday)...
The pattern will remain very active heading into the weekend.
There will be three fronts impacting weather across the area. The
first front has just about cleared the YK Delta and will continue
to move east tonight and dissipate. The snow and blowing snow
conditions associated with it earlier today will continue to
rapidly improve. Westerly flow behind this front overnight could
bring some patchy fog, but instability should help to mitigate
that on the whole.

Front #2 is already taking shape over the Central Aleutians. A
rapidly deepening near bomb-force cyclone will push into the
Central Bering overnight. Much like the last system, it will sling
its associated warm front toward the coast. This will bring
another round of strong E to S winds and a couple inches of snow
to most of SW AK. The area of greatest concern is along the YK-
Delta coast. Low-level offshore winds could serve to reinforce
cold air into the area as they feed into the front. Much like
today, the combination of these conditions could lead to snow and
blowing snow making for very low visibilities along the coast and
Nunivak Island. A Winter Storm Watch has been issued to address
the potential for blizzard conditions Fri morning through Fri
evening.

Front #3 will take a completely different track into late Sat.
Instead of a powerful low over the Bering with an elongating warm
front affecting the coast, this system will move in starting from
the North Pacific and pushing north across the Alaska Peninsula.
Once again, with cold air in place, blowing snow will be a
concern. The warm air associated with this system should be
quickly shunted to the southeast (deflected by the Alaska Range),
so more places should pick up a couple inches of snow
accumulation Sat afternoon and evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...
An active pattern continues across the Bering. An area of gales
over the southwest Bering moves westward as the remnants of a
Siberian low exit the area this evening. Another low quickly
advances on the heels of the first, forming a closed center near
Adak this evening. The associated front pushes across the eastern
Bering, bringing warm southerly flow to the central and eastern
Aleutians by Fri morning. A large area of gales with embedded
pockets of storm force winds will move across the central and
northern Bering through Fri afternoon. Even though the fast moving
low departs the Bering to the north by Fri afternoon, it
continues to strengthen, and leaves a large trail of gale force
winds through Sat morning. West to southwest winds will persist
bringing in relatively colder air and widespread snow showers in
behind the passing front through Saturday.

&&

.MARINE (Days 3 through 5/Sunday through Tuesday)...
A strong ~970mb low will move into the Bering Sea Sunday and
confidence is growing for southwesterly storm force winds and high
seas across the western Aleutians. These winds are expected to
gradually diminish as they track west to east as the associated
front weakens, however gales will be possible as far east Bristol
Bay. Winds will gradually diminish and seas subside through Monday
as the low weakens and departs to the north. Generally light
winds and calm seas are expected Monday evening into early Tuesday
morning under a ridge. Although model agreement begins to degrade
Tuesday, it appears another low will track into the Bering,
though looks much weaker than Sunday's low and as of now models
are indicating gales for the western Aleutians and sub gale for
eastern regions.

A weak low will track into Bristol Bay Sunday and bring the
potential for marginal gales to the western Gulf, mainly through
the Barren Islands. Generally sub gales expected Monday under a
ridge. The ridge will remain in place Tuesday, however as models
are indicating a strong pressure gradient the gale potential will
return and seas will slightly build through the day, especially
over the southern Gulf.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...
Strong winds and moderate rain are likely over the Aleutians
Sunday into Monday as a strong low tracks across the Bering. As
this low tracks to the north and east across the Bering, a strong
fetch of southwesterly winds will impact the southwest coast by
Monday afternoon. If current guidance comes to fruition, there may
be potential surge and rough surf issues along the coast,
especially where shorefast ice is absent. A weaker low will
develop over the western Aleutians Tuesday bringing more light
rain over the region. Precipitation will continue moving west to
east Wednesday with partial clearing beginning to occur Wednesday
evening into Thursday as a ridge builds in behind the front.

Most of the latest model runs now indicate a weak low moving
across western mainland Sunday. Given the strong southerly flow
and subsequent moisture advection into the region, significant
snow could occur around the center of circulation near the
Iliamna area. Accumulation is much more uncertain for inland
areas in Southcentral area with some models splitting the low over
Prince William Sound which in turn would affect the flow pattern
over the Chugach Mountains and subsequently how much downsloping
occurs and how much snow makes it into the typical leeside
locations. Model agreement becomes poor into early next week. The
general pattern appears to look mostly benign with party to mostly
cloudy skies, seasonal temperatures and possible scattered show
showers through Wednesday. Both the ECMWF and Canadian model
solutions indicate a relatively strong cold front tracking over
southern Alaska on Thursday which would bring the potential for
snow, though confidence remains low at this time.

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Winter Storm Watch 155.
MARINE...Storm Warning 180 181 185.
 Gale Warning 155 165 170 172>179.
 Heavy Frz Spray 181.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...RA/BL
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...TM
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...KO
MARINE/LONG TERM...AP