Gale Warning 15, NWS Anchorage, AK

121 
FZAK62 PAFC 171247
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
347 AM AKST Thu Jan 17 2019

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-180315-
347 AM AKST Thu Jan 17 2019
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A front over the central Aleutians will weaken Fri afternoon. 
A second front over the western Aleutians will persist through 
Sat morning.

$$

PKZ411-180315-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
347 AM AKST Thu Jan 17 2019

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft. Freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...S wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 8 to 16 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 25 to 35 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind 25 to 35 kt. Seas 14 to 19 ft.
.SAT THROUGH MON...NE wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft.

$$

PKZ412-180315-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
347 AM AKST Thu Jan 17 2019

.TODAY...W wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 10 ft. Freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...S wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 8 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.SAT THROUGH MON...NE wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.

$$

PKZ413-180315-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
347 AM AKST Thu Jan 17 2019

.TODAY...W wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 9 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 12 ft.
.SAT THROUGH MON...NE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.

$$

PKZ414-180315-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
347 AM AKST Thu Jan 17 2019

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...N wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft. Freezing spray.
Snow.
.TONIGHT...N wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI...NE wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft.
.SAT THROUGH MON...NE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft.

$$

840 
FZAK62 PAFC 180022
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
322 PM AKST Thu Jan 17 2019

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-181430-
322 PM AKST Thu Jan 17 2019
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

North Pacific high pressure moves to the Northern Bering through 
Sat afternoon. A 985 mb low at 48N 171E heads to Kamchatka and
dissipates Fri afternoon. A 971 mb low at 45N 171E Fri afternoon 
drives to Kamchatka at 965 mb for Sat afternoon. Its front 
persists over the Western Aleutians through Sat afternoon.

$$

PKZ411-181430-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
322 PM AKST Thu Jan 17 2019

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 15 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 25 to 35 kt. Seas 12 to 19 ft. Snow and rain showers.
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 14 to 20 ft.
.SAT...E wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 14 to 22 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 25 to 35 kt. Seas 17 to 22 ft.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...NE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft.

$$

PKZ412-181430-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
322 PM AKST Thu Jan 17 2019

.TONIGHT...S wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 8 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft. Freezing spray E of
174 W.
.SAT...E wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...NE wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.

$$

PKZ413-181430-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
322 PM AKST Thu Jan 17 2019

.TONIGHT...SE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 9 ft.
.FRI...E wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.SAT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 10 to 15 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 11 to 16 ft.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...NE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.

$$

PKZ414-181430-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
322 PM AKST Thu Jan 17 2019

.TONIGHT...N wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft. Freezing spray N of
56 N.
.FRI...N wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft. Freezing spray N of 56 N.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft. Freezing spray N
of 56 N.
.SAT...NE wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 12 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...NE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
335 AM AKST Wed Jan 16 2019

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...A deformation zone in the col between
a vertically stacked low in the north Pacific and a vertically
stacked low over eastern Siberia is oriented roughly north to
south from the Seward Peninsula to south of the AKPEN. This is
bringing precipitation to the eastern Aleutians/AKPEN up to the
Pribilofs. A shortwave associated with the north Pacific low is
bringing areas of precipitation to Southcentral, primarily the
Gulf coast/coastal mountains and another shortwave is bringing
steady rain to Kodiak. A strengthening Arctic high over the Yukon
is driving northeast flow and cooling conditions in Southwest AK,
particularly in the lower Kuskokwim valley, while an upper ridge
building over the interior is supporting stable conditions and
likely patchy fog in the Y-K Delta.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...Models are generally resolving current
weather well and are in good agreement for the short term, but
uncertainty builds Friday into Saturday as models struggle to
resolve the progression of the north Pacific low. The GFS has been
particularly inconsistent run to run with a low that develops to
the south and shifts into the Gulf Saturday, with previous runs
depicting this as high end gale force, while the EC has
consistently had this low weaker. The recent run of the GFS is
more in line with the EC for this feature, so leaned toward the EC
for day 3. Models diverge further next week with the development
of a low in the eastern Pacific that tracks westward.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...VFR conditions and light winds will persist.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
The low south of Kodiak Island is helping to bring southeast flow
to the area resulting in precipitation along the north Gulf coast
and Kodiak Island today. There is enough warm air for the
majority of the impacted areas to see rain but some of the
locations at higher elevations could still see snow. Precip will
diminish overnight as the low weakens and the main stream of
moisture moves to the south. Late Thursday a shortwave will move
toward Southcentral Alaska from the north helping to clear out
cloud cover and bring colder temperatures to the area for
Thursday night.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

East to northeasterly offshore flow will continue across
Southwest Alaska with several troughs rotating from the western
Gulf to the east across Southwest Alaska over the next two days.
The first and the weakest of the series of easterly waves will
rotate into the Bristol Bay area this morning. A secondary,
slightly stronger trough will reinforce it this afternoon and
evening, extending precipitation farther north into the lower
Kuskokwim Valley and Kuskokwim Delta areas as well. The trough and
precipitation band will consolidate into a deformation zone late
tonight stretching from the Kuskokwim Delta coast to the Alaska
Peninsula where it will remain stalled but gradually weakening
through Thursday. Another trough with an accompanying compact
surface low will rotate from the western Gulf to the east along
the south side of the Alaska Peninsula Thursday afternoon through
Thursday night. Over mainland Southwest Alaska precipitation will
taper off from north to south Thursday night with dry
northeasterly flow strengthening through the day Friday. The
lingering frontal system will drop south of the Alaska Peninsula
Friday night.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3)...

An arctic trough over the northwestern Bering will continue to
bring cold west to northwesterly flow to the western and central
Bering and Aleutians today and tonight. A vertically stacked low
south of the Alaska Peninsula and ridging over mainland Alaska
will continue to steer a somewhat warmer airmass and series of
easterly waves into the eastern Bering. Tonight through Thursday
the upper level arctic trough will shift northeastward over
eastern Russia and the Bering strait with an upper level ridge
building in over the central Aleutians and Bering. This progression
will shift the stronger northerly flow east into the eastern
Bering on Thursday with gusty northerly channeling through the
eastern Aleutians and gaps and passes in the western Alaska
Peninsula.

On Thursday, a north Pacific frontal system will track north over
the western Aleutians where it will stall through Friday with
several frontal waves rippling north along the front. A stronger
north Pacific frontal system will deepen to a roughly 965 mb low
south of the western Aleutians Friday night sending an associated
frontal system north towards western Aleutians. Meanwhile the
ridging over the central Aleutians will lift north and strengthen
Friday to be centered over much of the Bering as a large blocking
high by Friday night with the surface flow turning predominantly
easterly in response.

&&

.MARINE (Days 3 through 5...Fri through Sun)...
The marine waters will be significantly quieter than they have
been for the past few weeks. To the west over the Bering,
northerly winds through the Eastern Aleutians and the Alaska
Peninsula will weaken from gale force to small craft through the
day Fri. Over the Western Aleutians, a decaying front will support
gale force southerly winds early in the day, but those too will
diminish to small craft by Sat. An elongated front over the
Aleutians will keep moderate east to southeast small craft winds
across the Bering through the weekend. By late Sun, another
developing low could bring gale force winds back into the Alaska
Peninsula, but confidence in exact timing and strength remain low.

For the Gulf of AK, a weakening front stretches from east to west
just south of Kodiak Island. This will support small craft level
winds in this relatively small area of the Gulf. By late Fri into
Sat, the developing low near SE AK will increase easterly winds
across the Gulf. In general, speeds look to top out at small
craft, but there could be a small swath of gales for a short
period. Seas will also likely increase (to 10-15') with that
longer duration easterly fetch Sat into Sun.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7...Sat through Tue)...

The period starts with a complicated pattern across the state.
Several weak waves are embedded in an elongating trough over the
Aleutians while a potent surface low develops over the SE Gulf of
Alaska. A cut-off upper level low over the mainland will serve to
block any real Arctic air from being able to make it south of
Interior AK.

Over the Bering, the upper level low that anchors the trough is
located south of the Kamchatka Peninsula. A quasi-stationary front
extends to the east from the low center all the way through the
Aleutian Chain. As we head into the late weekend and early next
work week (21 Jan-25 Jan), all models indicate that a stronger
surface low will develop somewhere along this front. Exactly where
it forms and how strong is still up for debate. This low will
then move quickly to the north and weaken into an open wave by
Tue.

For the Gulf of AK and the Southern Mainland, the low over the SE
Gulf on Sat never really makes much progress towards the North
Gulf Coast. Instead, the system moves inland over SE AK and starts
to quickly weaken. Induced ridging will keep sensible weather
relatively quiet for the area through the weekend. Temperatures
will generally be near normal and largely driven by how much
radiation can occur (i.e. locations with clouds will remain
warmer overnight, while clear areas will see the coldest
temperatures). The next best chance for precipitation will come
early next week courtesy of the triple point low mentioned above.
This system looks to weaken as it approaches from the Alaska
Peninsula area. With no real Arctic air over any of southern AK,
precipitation types could lend towards a rain/snow mix or all rain
(especially for coastal locations).

Towards the middle of next week, all models hint at a building
North American Ridge extending north through the Panhandle of AK.
While there is still a high amount of uncertainty in the details,
this pattern would certainly favor continued mild temperatures and
a higher likelihood of precipitation for south facing coasts.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...Gale: 130 155 165 170 171 172 178.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...MM/JA
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...DK
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...JR
MARINE/LONG TERM...MO/KO