Wind Chill Advisory 7, NWS Aberdeen, SD

Big Stone County, MN, Traverse County, MN, Brown County, SD, Buffalo County, SD, Campbell County, SD, Clark County, SD, Codington County, SD, Corson County, SD, Day County, SD, Deuel County, SD, Dewey County, SD, Edmunds County, SD, Faulk County, SD, Grant County, SD, Hamlin County, SD, Hand County, SD, Hughes County, SD, Hyde County, SD, Jones County, SD, Lyman County, SD, Marshall County, SD, McPherson County, SD, Potter County, SD, Roberts County, SD, Spink County, SD, Stanley County, SD, Sully County, SD, Walworth County, SD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1139 PM CST Wed Feb 6 2019

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1139 PM CST Wed Feb 6 2019

06z aviation discussion updated below.

UPDATE Issued at 903 PM CST Wed Feb 6 2019

Snow expanding this evening on radar with all obs showing light
snow as lift from upper low pressure trough moves in. Winds will
be on the increase tonight causing blowing snow. Updated pops and
weather through the night.

UPDATE Issued at 559 PM CST Wed Feb 6 2019

00z aviation discussion updated below.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday Night)
Issued at 225 PM CST Wed Feb 6 2019

A broad upper low will move through the Dakotas overnight. Shortwave
energy in the accompanying upper trough will enhance local area
snowfall. However, accumulations of 2 to 5 inches are expected to be
widespread. As the upper low traverses northeastern SD and west
central MN tonight and early Thursday morning, this region could see
up to 6 inches.

At the same time, a sfc low making its way across the central and
southern Plains will shift northeast into the Great Lakes while
Arctic high pressure moves down from Canada and into MT/ND. Winds
will increase between these two systems. Cold air advection and a
westerly component will create strong, gusty winds along the Coteau,
especially in the Sisseton Hills, on Thursday. Blizzard conditions
are expected to develop along the I-29 corridor and into west
central MN Thursday morning.

As cold air rushes in with the Arctic high, wind chill values will
plummet by Thursday night. Winter weather headlines will need to
transition to wind chill headlines as values as low as -40F are
possible. Actual temperatures will remain well below normal with
highs on Thursday not far off tonight's lows. Temps in the negative
single digits are expected tonight and Thursday with lows on Thu
night tanking into the negative 20s.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 225 PM CST Wed Feb 6 2019

More quiet conditions will start off this period of the forecast as
an area of arctic high pressure will be centered over the CWA on
Friday. A pretty cold start to the day with not much of a recovery
should be the result. Zones east of the Missouri River valley are
likely to stay subzero all day. There will also be enough wind to
persist dangerously cold wind chills through Friday morning that
will likely need headlines in future forecast iterations.

As the high slips off to the east by the start of the weekend,
southerly flow does begin to return. Still expecting a pretty cold
start on Saturday, but not quite as cold as Friday morning. Things
try to modify by afternoon with high temps inching near zero to
single digits above across our northern zones while southern areas
of the CWA see afternoon readings potentially into the teens to near
20 degrees. Some mid lvl energy combined with a sfc trough could
provide a brief shot of some light snow to northern counties on
Saturday. A more stronger wave is progged to slide through the
region on Sunday which should bring a better chance of some snow,
especially farther south. At this point, accumulations with these 2
systems appear to be minor. Looking into next week, another trough
of low pressure slides through Monday into Tuesday bringing with it
another round of snow. Some modification in the temperature trends
will try to take place as these systems successively move through
the area, but with the extensive snowpack on the ground don't expect
much in the way of real warmth or anything close to normal for
early/mid February.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1139 PM CST Wed Feb 6 2019

Snow will end from southwest to northeast across the region
into early Thursday afternoon as lift from an upper level low
pressure trough moves out. The issue along with the snowfall will be
increasing north winds to 20 to 40 mph, especially at ABR/ATY
causing low vsbys in blowing snow. Vsbys will fall to a mile or less
at times, especially at ATY. MVFR/IFR ceilings and vsbys will slowly
improve tonight through Thursday except for at ATY where they
will remain into Thursday evening.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM CST /5 PM MST/ Thursday for
     SDZ003>006-009-010-015>018-033>037-045-048-051.

     Winter Weather Advisory until 9 AM CST Thursday for SDZ007-008-
     011-020>023.

     Blizzard Warning from 9 AM Thursday to midnight CST Thursday
     night for SDZ007-008-011-020>023.

     Winter Weather Advisory until 9 PM CST Thursday for SDZ019.

MN...Winter Weather Advisory until 9 AM CST Thursday for MNZ039-046.

     Blizzard Warning from 9 AM Thursday to midnight CST Thursday
     night for MNZ039-046.

&&

UPDATE...Mohr
SHORT TERM...Wise
LONG TERM...Vipond
AVIATION...Mohr

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
845 PM CST Wed Feb 6 2019

SDZ003>006-009-010-015>018-033>037-045-048-051-080245-
Corson-Campbell-McPherson-Brown-Walworth-Edmunds-Dewey-Potter-Faulk-
Spink-Stanley-Sully-Hughes-Hyde-Hand-Jones-Lyman-Buffalo-
845 PM CST Wed Feb 6 2019 /745 PM MST Wed Feb 6 2019/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central South Dakota, north
central South Dakota and northeast South Dakota.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Snow is expected into Thursday morning with additional accumulations
of 2 to 4 inches. Blowing and drifting snow is likely tonight and
Thursday. Wind chills will also get as cold as 35 below.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Bitterly cold wind chills as well as areas of blowing and drifting
snow are expected on Thursday. More light snow is possible late in
the weekend.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

SDZ019-080245-
Clark-
845 PM CST Wed Feb 6 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast South Dakota.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Snow is expected into Thursday with blowing and drifting snow
likely tonight. Wind chills will also get as cold as 30 below.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Snow will linger into Thursday, with areas of blowing/drifting
expected through the day. Bitterly cold wind chills are expected.
More light snow is possible late in the weekend.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

MNZ039-046-SDZ007-008-011-020>023-080245-
Traverse-Big Stone-Marshall-Roberts-Day-Codington-Grant-Hamlin-Deuel-
845 PM CST Wed Feb 6 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for west central Minnesota and
northeast South Dakota.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Snow is expected into Thursday with blowing and drifting snow
likely tonight. Wind chills will also get as cold as 30 below
tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Snow will linger into Thursday, with widespread blowing/drifting
snow through the evening with blizzard conditions expected.
Dangerously cold wind chills are expected Thursday and Thursday
night. More light snow is possible late in the weekend.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

Mohr

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1021 PM CST WED FEB 6 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0800 PM     HEAVY SNOW       LONG LAKE               45.86N 99.20W
02/06/2019  M12.0 INCH       MCPHERSON          SD   PUBLIC

            RELAYED VIA SOCIAL MEDIA, STILL SNOWING.

&&

RL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1053 PM CST WED FEB 6 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0800 PM     HEAVY SNOW       7 W LONG LAKE           45.85N 99.35W
02/06/2019  E12.0 INCH       MCPHERSON          SD   PUBLIC

            RELAYED VIA SOCIAL MEDIA. A FOOT IS A
            CONSERVATIVE ESTIMATE. STILL SNOWING.

&&

RL