Winter Weather Advisory 21, NWS Albuquerque, NM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
215 AM MDT Wed Oct 23 2019

...FIRST WINTER STORM OF THE SEASON ARRIVES TONIGHT INTO NORTHEASTERN
NEW MEXICO...

.SYNOPSIS...
Enjoy one more day of pleasant weather over New Mexico today as an
early winter visit arrives through eastern New Mexico late tonight
through Thursday. Snowfall will begin at Raton Pass late this
evening, spreading through the Sangre de Cristo Mountains and
northeastern New Mexico through Thursday morning. Snowfall
accumulations of 3 to 9 inches are forecast over the Sangre de Cristo
Mountains with higher amounts of up to a foot likely impacting travel
through Raton Pass. Lesser amounts of 1 to 4 inches will also likely
impact travel along I-25 from Las Vegas to Raton. Very cold
temperatures with struggle to reach the 40s through the east.
Meanwhile, central and western New Mexico to include Santa Fe and
Albuquerque will likely miss out on much if any precipitation and
only see a drop in temperatures Thursday. A warming trend returns
Friday to at least Saturday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today...One more day of fairly tranquil weather with relaxing NW
flow aloft. Daytime highs will climb to near normal over northern NM
and several degrees above normal south of I-40. The leading edge of a
backdoor front will bring a NE wind shift into far northeastern NM,
but the switch to wintry weather won't arrive until tonight.

Tonight/Thursday...The season's first significant winter storm system
will arrive tonight into northeastern NM, first via a reinforcing
backdoor cold front bringing a sharp drop in temperatures overnight.
As an upper-level trough digs down the inter-mountain west, snowfall
will begin at the Raton Pass area late tonight increasing in
intensity into Thursday morning. As the trough axis reaches over the
San Juan Mtn Range sfc upslope flow behind the backdoor cold front
will interact with the forcing aloft to drive snow over the Sangre de
Cristo Mountains after midnight through Thursday morning. Snowfall
accumulations here will range from 3"-6" over the southern Sangres
and 4"-9" over the northern Sangres, with locally higher amounts up
to a foot over Raton Pass. Lesser amounts of 1"-4" will likely
impact travel along the I-25 corridor from Las Vegas to Raton. The
trough axis will move through central NM during the day as the
backdoor cold front will dive through eastern NM and to or just west
of the central mtn chain. An east canyon gap wind is likely at Santa
Fe and ABQ but any wintry precipitation will be hard to come by any
further south than I-40. A light dusting to an inch of snow is
possible over the Jemez and Tusas Mtns as the stronger backdoor push
just isn't expected to get that far west. Winter Weather Advisories
will be issued for the Sangres and adjacent high plains and Union
County with a Winter Storm Warning for Raton Pass and Johnson/Bartlett
Mesas.

Temperature wise, daytime highs across eastern NM will struggle to
reach 40 with long-duration sub-freezing temperatures likely for
Raton to Capulin/Des Moines starting Wed night and going until Fri
morning. 700mb Ts will be well below freezing -6 to -9C even during
the day suggesting evaporative cooling. So although daytime highs
will reach above 40 through the Canadian River Basin through eastern
San Miguel and Quay Counties and areas south of there, precipitation
will likely be a rain-snow mix favoring snow melting on the ground.

Long Range...As the ECMWF has trended to a more progressive track for
the Thursday system and the GFS continues to hold the system as a
trough through the TX/OK Panhandles, have elected to go with an
earlier ending for precipitation over eastern NM Fri morning. Morning
lows Fri will likely be the coldest of the forecast period with near
zero possible at Angel Fire and single digits at Raton to Springer.
Places that haven't yet seen their season-ending freeze (parts of
ABQ, Socorro, and Roswell) will likely see it Fri morning.
Temperatures trend back up through at least Sat, but then models go
right back into inconsistencies by Sun. The GFS shows another quick-
hitting storm with similar yet less extensive impacts on Sun, while
the ECMWF continues to show a more amplified jet pattern and develops
the trough into a closed low that moves over CA and delays the onset
of any sensible weather impacts until Mon. Needless to say, Sun and
beyond looks up in the air for now.

24/RJH

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Dry and warmer conditions are forecast today with high temperatures
meeting or slightly exceeding normal and afternoon humidity
plummeting to near 15 percent or less in most of the forecast area.
Moderately breezy conditions will develop this afternoon with the
strongest gusts expected in northwestern to central high terrain
areas, but critical wind speeds are not anticipated. It should also
be noted, a wind shift will also be observed in northeastern NM
ahead of a stronger cold front. Overall smoke ventilation rates will
improve slightly today, but it will still be mid to late afternoon
before mixing heights rise high enough to support decent dispersion.

Into tonight, a sudden pattern shift will begin unfolding and this
will carry over to Thursday as the deep trough of low pressure aloft
sags southeastward with an unseasonably strong cold front associated
with it. While windy conditions will cover much of eastern NM as the
cold front invades Thursday morning, a gusty canyon/gap wind will
also surge into central valleys. Despite the windy conditions, the
cooler air statewide and precipitation over north central to
northeastern NM will alleviate any threat for critical fire weather
conditions. However, very low afternoon RH is still anticipated in
far western zones Thursday afternoon. Friday will be characterized
by more tranquil conditions, but chilly temperatures. And just as
temperatures begin to rebound Saturday, another cold front is
forecast to impact NM Sunday into Monday. Gusty winds could briefly
precede and accompany the Sunday front, but otherwise no blatant
critical fire weather threats appear.

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&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
Just a few high clouds are expected overnight and through the daytime
hours Wednesday with VFR conditions prevailing. Winds will turn
moderately breezy in the afternoon, primarily in northwestern parts
of the state and also over some high terrain areas of central New
Mexico. Winds will shift east northeast in the northeastern plains
Wednesday with a more pronounced and gusty wind shift arriving
Wednesday evening into early Thursday as a stout cold front arrives.
Rain and snow will accompany the front with deteriorating
visibility/ceilings Wednesday night, primarily in north central to
northeastern New Mexico.

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&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  67  31  56  23 /   0   0   0   0
Dulce...........................  62  21  52  16 /   0   5  20   0
Cuba............................  62  29  49  22 /   0   0  20   0
Gallup..........................  67  23  54  14 /   0   0   5   0
El Morro........................  64  26  52  17 /   0   0   5   5
Grants..........................  67  25  53  14 /   0   0  10   5
Quemado.........................  66  30  55  24 /   0   0   5   5
Datil...........................  65  33  54  25 /   0   0   5   5
Glenwood........................  76  44  71  33 /   0   0   0   5
Chama...........................  56  20  43  14 /   0  10  40   0
Los Alamos......................  62  34  43  26 /   0   5  50   5
Pecos...........................  62  31  41  22 /   0   5  50  10
Cerro/Questa....................  59  25  39  13 /   0  30  70   5
Red River.......................  51  21  29  11 /   0  50  80   5
Angel Fire......................  56  15  32   1 /   0  60  80  10
Taos............................  61  24  41   8 /   0  20  60   5
Mora............................  63  22  37  13 /   0  40  70  10
Espanola........................  67  32  49  21 /   0   5  50   5
Santa Fe........................  62  34  41  25 /   0   5  40   5
Santa Fe Airport................  65  31  45  20 /   0   0  30   5
Albuquerque Foothills...........  67  39  50  30 /   0   0  20   5
Albuquerque Heights.............  69  39  51  29 /   0   0  10   5
Albuquerque Valley..............  71  37  54  26 /   0   0  10   5
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  70  38  53  27 /   0   0  10   5
Los Lunas.......................  71  34  54  22 /   0   0  10   5
Rio Rancho......................  69  38  52  29 /   0   0  10   5
Socorro.........................  75  39  60  27 /   0   0  10   5
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  62  36  42  27 /   0   0  20   5
Tijeras.........................  65  35  47  27 /   0   0  20   5
Moriarty/Estancia...............  68  27  46  15 /   0   0  20   5
Clines Corners..................  64  28  40  19 /   0   5  30  10
Gran Quivira....................  66  32  48  22 /   0   0  10  10
Carrizozo.......................  71  39  54  26 /   0   0  10  10
Ruidoso.........................  66  33  47  23 /   0   0  10  10
Capulin.........................  61  24  30  13 /   0  70  90  10
Raton...........................  65  25  36   8 /   0  70  80  10
Springer........................  67  26  37   9 /   0  60  80  10
Las Vegas.......................  64  27  38  17 /   0  20  60  10
Clayton.........................  64  28  38  21 /   0  50  70  10
Roy.............................  65  29  38  18 /   0  20  60  10
Conchas.........................  72  35  44  22 /   0  10  50  10
Santa Rosa......................  73  34  44  22 /   0   5  40  10
Tucumcari.......................  72  36  43  24 /   0   5  40  20
Clovis..........................  71  35  43  26 /   0   0  40  20
Portales........................  74  38  46  26 /   0   5  30  20
Fort Sumner.....................  73  35  46  23 /   0   0  30  10
Roswell.........................  81  43  54  31 /   0   0  10  10
Picacho.........................  76  38  52  27 /   0   0  10  10
Elk.............................  74  36  53  24 /   0   0   5  10

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 6 PM MDT Thursday
for the following zones... NMZ213>215-228>230.

Winter Storm Warning from 9 PM this evening to 6 PM MDT Thursday
for the following zones... NMZ227.

&&

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Hazardous Weather Outlook...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1120 AM MDT Tue Oct 22 2019

NMZ201>241-231100-
Northwest Plateau-Chuska Mountains-Far Northwest Highlands-
Northwest Highlands-West Central Plateau-West Central Mountains-
West Central Highlands-Southwest Mountains-
San Francisco River Valley-Tusas Mountains Including Chama-
Jemez Mountains-Glorieta Mesa Including Glorieta Pass-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains-
East Slopes Sangre de Cristo Mountains-Upper Rio Grande Valley-
Espanola Valley-Santa Fe Metro Area-
Middle Rio Grande Valley/Albuquerque Metro Area-
Lower Rio Grande Valley-Sandia/Manzano Mountains Including Edgewood-
Estancia Valley-Central Highlands-South Central Highlands-
Upper Tularosa Valley-South Central Mountains-
Johnson and Bartlett Mesas Including Raton Pass-
Far Northeast Highlands-Northeast Highlands-Union County-
Harding County-Eastern San Miguel County-Guadalupe County-
Quay County-Curry County-Roosevelt County-De Baca County-
Chaves County Plains-Eastern Lincoln County-Southwest Chaves County-
San Agustin Plains and Adjacent Lowlands-
1120 AM MDT Tue Oct 22 2019

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of north and central
New Mexico.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

No hazardous weather is expected.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

The season's first significant snowfall is likely to arrive Wednesday
night through Thursday across the Sangre de Cristo Mountains and
Raton Pass with lesser amounts over the adjacent high plains. Travel
impacts are likely in the I-25 corridor at Raton Pass Thursday. A
passing storm system responsible for the snowfall will also bring a
sharp drop in temperatures across eastern New Mexico where freezing
temperatures may persist for 24 to 30 hours from Raton to Capulin.
Season ending freezes are also likely in Chaves County and the Lower
Rio Grande Valley to include Roswell and Socorro Thursday night into
Friday morning. Stay tuned to the latest forecast as snowfall totals
are likely to be updated over northeastern New Mexico for Thursday.

Temperatures warm back up by the weekend.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.

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