Special Weather Statement, NWS Albuquerque, NM

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1137 AM MDT Tue Aug 20 2019

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
Increasing low-level moisture should enhance development of
afternoon/evening shower and thunderstorm activity along and east of
the central mountain chain. Higher confidence for KABQ, KAEG, KSAF,
and KLVS. It's possible that storm activity could move as far south
and east at KTCC, but wasn't confident enough to include at this
time. Storms will mainly be dry, but can expect gusty winds and some
lightning. Brief periods of MVFR conditions are possible with
stronger storms.

31

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...259 AM MDT Tue Aug 20 2019...
.SYNOPSIS...
The coverage of showers and storms will increase over central and
eastern New Mexico today. Most locations will still be dry however
more cloud cover will at least cool temperatures a couple degrees.
The greatest chance for showers and storms will be Wednesday as a
weak weather disturbance passes through northeast New Mexico. The
chances for locally heavy rainfall will be highest east of the Rio
Grande Valley. A few more showers and storms are possible Thursday
over eastern New Mexico while drier air moves back into central and
western New Mexico. Very hot and dry weather will return to the
entire area once again Friday through the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
The main change to the latest forecast package was to lower PoPs for
central and western NM through Thursday. Model guidance is focusing
the main axis of showers and storms primarily over eastern NM today
through Thursday.

The 00Z PWAT at KABQ trended up to 0.55" and will continue to rise
closer to normal through Wednesday as 700-500mb layer flow becomes
southeasterly. Moist and unstable upslope flow into the central mt
chain will lead to an axis of showers and storms from near Ruidoso
north to Las Vegas and Raton this afternoon. Steering flow will be
slow toward the south and models are consistent congealing storms
around Torrance County by the evening. This will force convective
outflow into the Rio Grande Valley this evening.

A boundary will shift southwest into northeastern NM through the day
on Wednesday which will help increase coverage of storms with heavy
rainfall along and east of the Sangre de Cristos. Deeper moisture
with strong afternoon heating and instability over the remainder of
NM will lead to isolated to scattered storms east of the Divide.
Storm motions will be slow as upper level high pressure remains in
place over western NM. Outflow boundaries will be numerous late
Wednesday which will hopefully lead to storms in the Rio Grande
Valley through the evening. However, 00Z models backed way off on
coverage and focus most activity over eastern NM through Wednesday
night. Another round of storms is expected over eastern NM Thursday
while drier mid level air limits coverage over western NM.

Unfortunately, extended guidance remains consistent with another
area of strong upper level high pressure building over northern NM
with unseasonably dry air Friday through the weekend. MOS max temps
are near records for much of the area once again by late week.

Guyer

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Southeast winds will continue to slowly bring low-level moisture
back into portions of the forecast area today. Scattered convection
will return to the southwest mountains as well as over the central
mountain chain eastward this afternoon and evening. The moisture
will push to the divide Wednesday for a few storms there with most
of the activity central and east. Drier air starts to work back in
from the west Thursday and Friday, resulting in just isolated
coverage central and eastern areas. Weather models agree that the
weekend looks mostly dry and hot as the Four Corners high builds
back overhead and keeps monsoon moisture locked up over northern
Mexico.

33

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

31

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
324 AM MDT Tue Aug 20 2019

NMZ501>540-211100-
Northwest Plateau-Chuska Mountains-Far Northwest Highlands-
Northwest Highlands-West Central Plateau-West Central Mountains-
West Central Highlands-Southwest Mountains-
San Francisco River Valley-San Juan Mountains-Jemez Mountains-
West Slopes Sangre de Cristo Mountains-
Northern Sangre de Cristos above 9500 feet/Red River-
Southern Sangre de Cristos above 9500 feet-
East Slopes Sangre de Cristo Mountains-Upper Rio Grande Valley-
Lower Chama River Valley-Santa Fe Metro Area-
Middle Rio Grande Valley/Albuquerque Metro Area-
Lower Rio Grande Valley-Sandia/Manzano Mountains-Estancia Valley-
Central Highlands-South Central Highlands-Upper Tularosa Valley-
South Central Mountains-Raton Ridge/Johnson Mesa-
Far Northeast Highlands-Northeast Highlands-Union County-
Harding County-Eastern San Miguel County-Guadalupe County-
Quay County-Curry County-Roosevelt County-De Baca County-
Chaves County Plains-Eastern Lincoln County-Southwest Chaves County-
324 AM MDT Tue Aug 20 2019

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of north and central
New Mexico.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Scattered showers and thunderstorms along the east slopes of the
central mountain chain today and tonight will be capable of strong
outflow winds, frequent lightning, small hail, and locally heavy
rainfall with minor flooding possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

Scattered showers and thunderstorms over central and eastern NM
Wednesday and Thursday will be capable of strong outflow winds,
frequent lightning, small hail, and locally heavy rainfall with
minor flooding possible. The Ute Park burn scar will have the
greatest potential for flash flooding on Wednesday.

Strong upper level high pressure with unseasonably dry air will lead
to another round of record to near-record heat across much of NM
Friday through the weekend.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.

Guyer

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