Special Weather Statement, NWS Albuquerque, NM

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1134 AM MDT Fri Aug 2 2019

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
A seasonably moist and increasingly unstable air mass will support
an active crop of thunderstorms across the area this afternoon into
the evening. The mid- to upper level high center has shifted a little
farther west during the past 24-hours with a rather ill- defined
center wobbling just southeast of ABQ. As a result, storm motions
will be nearly stationary and erratic. The one exception will be
across the northeast quarter of the state where the flow aloft will
steer storms to the southeast. This is also one area where isolated
strong if not briefly severe storms will be possible 20Z to 02Z.
Elsewhere, mountain top obscurations will be possible with lcl MVFR
or IFR cigs and vsby with any of the stronger thunderstorms. Outflow
boundary interactions becoming key for impacts at ABQ area terminals
after 22Z. KJ

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...1130 AM MDT Fri Aug 2 2019...
.UPDATE...
Updated the forecast package to include a Flash Flood Watch across
the eastern slopes of the Sangre de Cristos, with a particular
concern for the Ute Park burn scar. Slow moving thunderstorms in
this area have the potential for locally heavy rainfall and
associated flash flooding. In addition, increased sky cover from
Union to Quay counties based on current satellite trends. Also,
lowered temperatures in these areas based off the current sky cover.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...535 AM MDT Fri Aug 2 2019...
.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
Upper high center drifting back to the west and over NM. This will
allow a surface boundary to drop into ne NM aft 18Z, with convection
increasing in association with the boundary through ern NM. Plentiful
moisture persisting so expect showers and tstms to redevelop aft 18Z
over the wrn and nrn high terrain as well. Movement will be slow and
erratic, with terrain briefly obscured in lcl MVFR cigs/vsbys in the
stronger storms.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...301 AM MDT Fri Aug 2 2019...
.SYNOPSIS...
An increase in moisture today will result in an uptick in showers and
storms, especially across northeast New Mexico. The primary concern
today will be flash flooding as storm motions will be slow. Locally
heavy rainfall will be likely especially with the strongest and
slower moving storms. Burn scars will be especially susceptible to
flash flooding. Scattered to numerous storms will remain in the
forecast through the weekend for most of the area, and flash
flooding will remain a concern each day. Temperatures today will be
near normal in the west and above normal across the eastern plains.
Temperatures will cool down slightly to more seasonable normals in
the east this weekend before rising again early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
The upper-level high is currently centered near the NM/TX border, and
one of the more important features to note with it is the shortwave
that is embedded within the flow. Currently, that shortwave is
located in eastern CO and was responsible for generating convection
in that area yesterday. The high will move slightly west today,
centering itself over the state, and as it does so, that disturbance
will rotate clockwise around the high and into eastern NM. This will
also send a weak backdoor cold front southwestward through the plains
Friday. Moisture will increase substantially behind the boundary,
and the shortwave will enhance lift and increase convective activity
into the weekend. PWAT values are forecast to be near to over an inch
across most of the forecast area on Friday with slightly lower PWATs
across the southeast plains and the Four Corners region. With the
high pressure centered over NM, storm motions will be slow and
erratic. This combined with deep moisture will likely result in
torrential rainfall, especially over the northeast. Burn scars, such
as the Ute Park burn area, will be especially vulnerable to flash
flooding. Outflow boundaries will play a big part in new storm
development and propagation.

As the high stays in place over the state this weekend, drier air
will begin to work its way around the high and into eastern NM. This
will reduce storm chances across the eastern third of the state
Saturday and especially Sunday. Scattered to numerous showers and
storms will stay in the forecast though for areas along and west of
the central mountain chain as the moisture continues to be recycled.
Storm motions will continue to be slow, and flash flooding will
remain a significant concern through the weekend.

The GFS and ECMWF have come into better agreement with shifting the
upper high to our west into AZ early next week. However, there are
differences between the two as to storm coverage. The GFS continues
to be the more enthusiastic model and has a lot more QPF and storm
coverage than the ECMWF. Regardless, enough moisture will stay in
place to keep precipitation chances in the forecast through the first
half of the week with the high terrain being the usual favored
areas. One of the more interesting features to note in the models
late next week is a strong low pressure system approaching the
Pacific NW coast by late Wednesday/early Thursday. Both models depict
this feature which pushes the upper high back to our east. This
placement of the high would draw Gulf moisture into western NM which,
in turn, generates more convection late next week. However, the
current run of the ECMWF has a secondary low farther south near the
SoCal border at the same time. This feature helps pull in even more
moisture into western NM. If this pans out, it would certainly help
our precipitation chances.

15

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Upper high center to migrate back from Texas into New Mexico during
the next 24 hours. This will allow storms to drift off the Sangre de
Cristo mountains into northeast New Mexico as well as for surface
fronts to enhance convection over northeast New Mexico which then
propagate into the east central and southeast plains during the
evening/overnight hours. Low level moisture will be enhanced into
central and western New Mexico on an east to west flow Saturday and
Sunday. Slow and erratic movement of showers and storms will lead to
potential for locally heavy rain and flooding today through the
weekend. The upper high center will attempt to drift back to the
east of New Mexico mid to late next week, possibly leading to a
better defined monsoon plume over western and northern New Mexico.

Overnight humidity recoveries through next week will be good to
excellent. The proximity of the upper high center will result in
some localized fair to poor ventilation rates over the west and
north today and Saturday, and from the Continental Divide to the
central mountain chain Sunday. Areas of fair to poor rates will
persist through much of next week.

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flash Flood Watch until 9 PM MDT this evening for the following
zones... NMZ515-528.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
319 AM MDT Fri Aug 2 2019

NMZ501>540-031100-
Northwest Plateau-Chuska Mountains-Far Northwest Highlands-
Northwest Highlands-West Central Plateau-West Central Mountains-
West Central Highlands-Southwest Mountains-
San Francisco River Valley-San Juan Mountains-Jemez Mountains-
West Slopes Sangre de Cristo Mountains-
Northern Sangre de Cristos above 9500 feet/Red River-
Southern Sangre de Cristos above 9500 feet-
East Slopes Sangre de Cristo Mountains-Upper Rio Grande Valley-
Lower Chama River Valley-Santa Fe Metro Area-
Middle Rio Grande Valley/Albuquerque Metro Area-
Lower Rio Grande Valley-Sandia/Manzano Mountains-Estancia Valley-
Central Highlands-South Central Highlands-Upper Tularosa Valley-
South Central Mountains-Raton Ridge/Johnson Mesa-
Far Northeast Highlands-Northeast Highlands-Union County-
Harding County-Eastern San Miguel County-Guadalupe County-
Quay County-Curry County-Roosevelt County-De Baca County-
Chaves County Plains-Eastern Lincoln County-Southwest Chaves County-
319 AM MDT Fri Aug 2 2019

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of north and central
New Mexico.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected across
the area today, and some will be capable of producing heavy rainfall.
Northeast New Mexico will be especially favored for localized heavy
rainfall and flash flooding through the evening. Burn areas, such as
the Ute Park burn scar, will be the most vulnerable to flash flooding
due to slow storm motions.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

Scattered to numerous showers and storms will favor central and
western New Mexico this weekend and through early next week where
locally heavy rainfall is possible. Localized areas of flash
flooding may occur Saturday and Sunday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report rainfall amounts and any flooding
through the National Weather Service Albuquerque web site at
weather.gov/abq or by calling 1.888.386.7637.

15

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