Special Weather Statement, NWS Albuquerque, NM

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1123 AM MDT Sat Jul 27 2019

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
Upper high center over se AZ will allow convection that forms over
the higher terrain aft 18Z to move to the southeast and south into
the valleys and northeast/east central plains aft 21Z. Lcl MVFR
cigs/vsbys in the stronger storms will briefly obscure higher
terrain. Drier air pushing to far nw NM will limit convection there.
Convection to wane after 03Z with sct-bkn mid clouds thereafter.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...336 AM MDT Sat Jul 27 2019...
.SYNOPSIS...
An upper level trough will cross today with scattered to numerous
showers and thunderstorms favoring an axis from the southwest
mountains to the far northeast highlands. The potential exists for
locally heavy rainfall and minor flooding again, especially where
the ground is already saturated from recent heavy rain. Drier air
will move over western areas from the northwest Sunday, but a back
door front will keep thunderstorms active across eastern areas during
the afternoon and evening. A modest crop of showers and
thunderstorms will favor the western and northern mountains Monday
and Tuesday, then a gradual increase of storm coverage is expected
central and west through the remainder of the week. High temperatures
will vary from near normal to around 6 degrees above normal through
the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
An upper level trough crossing the central Rockies and northern NM
today will clip northeast NM tonight as it slowly exits eastward
onto the Great Plains. This will produce another round of scattered
to numerous showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon and
evening around an axis from the southwest mountains to the far
northeast highlands. Drier air will begin to filter into northwest NM
from the northwest, so the best chance for locally heavy rainfall
will be along and southeast of this axis. While isolated flash
flooding will be possible, storms will move toward the southeast at a
faster pace than the last two days, and models are forecasting less
QPF, so we will not issue any headlines for today's round of
convection. That said, there should be a number of Flood Advisories
issued.

In the wake of the upper trough, drier air will infiltrate western
NM on Sunday, while a back door cold front dives southwestward
through the eastern plains. This will make Sunday another active day
for showers and thunderstorms along and east of the Sangre de Cristo
Mountains. Whatever complex gets going there is forecast to track
south and southeastward across the remainder of the eastern plains
Sunday evening. West of the central mountain chain, convection should
be fairly sparse and favor the northwest and southwest mountains.

The back door front will push all the way to the AZ border Sunday
night, and it will actually increase moisture enough across the west
for a little better coverage of showers and thunderstorms in the
vicinity of the continental divide on Monday. However, the center of
the mid-level high pressure system aloft will move northeastward over
the Four Corners region by then, steering drier air over central
and eastern NM from the northeast. Nonetheless, the south central
and northern mountains will still have a chance for showers and
thunderstorms, and some of these may be able to track
southeastward across northeast areas Monday evening.

GFS and ECMWF layer 700-500 mb streamlines continue to depict the
high pressure system aloft begrudgingly migrating slowly eastward
along the CO/NM border Tuesday and Wednesday, then onto the
western high plains during the latter part of the week ahead. This
will enable a gradual increase in monsoon moisture across western,
northern, and eventually central areas. Models suggest there
could be a further uptick in the coverage and wetness of storms
at the end of the week as a disturbance embedded in the ridge
crosses CO and northern NM.

High temperatures should vary from near to around 6 degrees above
normal for the next 7 days.

44

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Another crop of showers and storms with heavy rainfall is likely
today along and east of the Cont Dvd. Storm motion will be slow to
the south and southeast. Upper level high pressure will take shape
over the Four Corners region Sunday and force the majority of storm
activity along and east of the central mt chain. Storm motion will
shift more south to southwest.

The upper high will slide east across northern NM Monday through
Wednesday and lead to a general downtick in storm coverage as drier
mid level air moves into the area. The greater threat for locally
heavy rainfall will shift into the southwest mountains. Min humidity
will drop into the 15 to 25% range while overnight recoveries remain
good to excellent areawide. A slight deterioration in vent rates
will occur beneath the upper high over northern NM.

Guyer

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
426 AM MDT Sat Jul 27 2019

NMZ501>540-281100-
Northwest Plateau-Chuska Mountains-Far Northwest Highlands-
Northwest Highlands-West Central Plateau-West Central Mountains-
West Central Highlands-Southwest Mountains-
San Francisco River Valley-San Juan Mountains-Jemez Mountains-
West Slopes Sangre de Cristo Mountains-
Northern Sangre de Cristos above 9500 feet/Red River-
Southern Sangre de Cristos above 9500 feet-
East Slopes Sangre de Cristo Mountains-Upper Rio Grande Valley-
Lower Chama River Valley-Santa Fe Metro Area-
Middle Rio Grande Valley/Albuquerque Metro Area-
Lower Rio Grande Valley-Sandia/Manzano Mountains-Estancia Valley-
Central Highlands-South Central Highlands-Upper Tularosa Valley-
South Central Mountains-Raton Ridge/Johnson Mesa-
Far Northeast Highlands-Northeast Highlands-Union County-
Harding County-Eastern San Miguel County-Guadalupe County-
Quay County-Curry County-Roosevelt County-De Baca County-
Chaves County Plains-Eastern Lincoln County-Southwest Chaves County-
426 AM MDT Sat Jul 27 2019

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of north and central
New Mexico.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected today through the
overnight. Storm motions will be faster than the past couple days,
but abundant moisture in the atmosphere east of the continental
divide will enable some storms to produce locally heavy rainfall.
This may lead to localized areas of flash flooding, especially below
recent burn scars. Stronger storms may produce small hail and wind
gusts to 50 mph.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

Sunday, locally heavy rainfall will again be possible across
northeast and east central areas during the afternoon.

Friday, a disturbance is forecast to pass eastward over New Mexico
with a greater risk of locally heavy rainfall and flash flooding
areawide.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report rainfall amounts and any flooding
through the National Weather Service Albuquerque web site at
weather.gov/abq or by calling 1.888.386.7637.

44

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
125 PM MDT Sat Jul 27 2019

NMZ515-528-272000-
Far Northeast Highlands-East Slopes Sangre de Cristo Mountains-
125 PM MDT Sat Jul 27 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTH CENTRAL MORA AND SOUTH
CENTRAL COLFAX COUNTIES UNTIL 200 PM MDT...

At 125 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Ocate, or 24 miles northeast of Mora, moving southeast at 15 mph.

Dime size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this
storm.

Heavy rain and frequent and dangerous cloud to ground lightning will
also be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Ocate.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3626 10517 3634 10505 3627 10479 3608 10506
TIME...MOT...LOC 1925Z 298DEG 12KT 3625 10505

CA