Severe Thunderstorm Warning 83, NWS Albuquerque, NM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
319 PM MDT Sun Jun 2 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
Severe thunderstorm season is in full swing across New Mexico and
will continue through the next couple of days before a Pacific low
moves over the state on Wednesday and brings much drier air in from
the west. Thunderstorms will favor central and eastern New Mexico on
Monday, with more severe thunderstorms likely. Potential for severe
storms will decrease some Tuesday and especially on Wednesday. A
late week warming trend will send daytime temperatures back to normal
for a change. Saturday will likely be the warmest day so far this
calendar year, with Albuquerque hitting 90 degrees for the first time
and Roswell hitting 100 degrees for the first time. A backdoor cold
front may replenish moisture late next weekend, bringing and
resurgence of thunderstorms going into early the following week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Another round of severe storms ongoing this afternoon, with a more
favorable shear profile (0-6km bulk shear 45-50kts) providing an
atmosphere favoring supercells...even west of the central mountain
chain. Giant hail is likely with a couple supercell storms currently,
one over SW Valencia Co, another over far SE Lincoln and yet another
moving from Torrance into Guadalupe Co. A severe thunderstorm watch
is in place for much of eastern NM and will likely be expanded this
evening to include the remaining counties in the east central plains.

Look for more severe storms Monday in what looks to be a repeat of
today. Severe potential will decrease Tuesday as winds aloft
decrease with approach of the filling/weakening Pacific low, still
forecast to push over on Wednesday. Dry westerly flow will prevail
toward the end of the week and into the weekend, leading to a
significant downtrend in thunderstorm activity and an uptrend in
daytime temperatures. By Friday, highs will be back to normal for
early June. Albuquerque is forecast to reach 90 degrees for the first
time the calendar year by Saturday, although we'll be close on
Friday. Roswell is forecast to hit 100 degrees for the first time
this year on Saturday, but will also be close on Friday. A backdoor
front is forecast to slide down late in the weekend and replenish
moisture for a significant uptick in storms going into early the
following week as an upper level ridge parks over the region, making
for slow moving, soaking storms.

11

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
An upper level low inching eastward toward NM will continue drawing
low level moisture westward into eastern NM the next several days.
Daily rounds of showers and storms will impact much of the area with
a gradient from dry along the Cont Dvd to wet over the eastern
plains through Tuesday. The main upper level wave will cross NM on
Wednesday and allow temperatures to trend cooler with greater
coverage of wetting rainfall westward to the Cont Dvd. This system
will exit northeastern NM on Thursday while an upper ridge begins to
strengthen over southern NM through Sunday. High temperatures will
rebound slightly above normal with this ridge, especially over the
eastern plains. Min humidity will fall below 20% on most days across
western NM however overnight recoveries will still range from good
over the west to excellent across the east each night. High haines
and excellent vent rates will be present most days. Extended model
guidance is dragging a moist back door cold front into eastern NM
early next week with a big uptick in storm coverage over the state.

Guyer

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
The focus again today will be severe convection across eastern NM and
gusty virga activity across western NM. Low clouds over portions of
eastern NM late this morning will continue to erode through early
afternoon then transition to scattered TSRA with large hail, damaging
winds, and frequent lightning thru early evening. The best chance
for severe storms will likely focus in the area from near Corona to
Ruidoso eastward to Roswell and Clovis. SHRA is likely to continue
overnight across parts of east central and southeastern NM with
additional development of low cigs and perhaps patchy fog before
sunrise.

Guyer

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  52  86  51  86 /   5   0   0  10
Dulce...........................  42  80  41  79 /  30  10  10  20
Cuba............................  48  81  46  78 /  10  20  10  20
Gallup..........................  40  84  41  82 /   0   0   0  10
El Morro........................  42  82  40  78 /   0   5   0  20
Grants..........................  44  83  39  81 /   0  10   0  20
Quemado.........................  46  81  45  79 /   0   0   0  10
Glenwood........................  52  87  51  85 /   0   0   0  10
Chama...........................  37  73  39  73 /  30  30  20  20
Los Alamos......................  55  79  54  78 /  20  20  20  20
Pecos...........................  48  76  50  77 /  50  40  40  30
Cerro/Questa....................  45  74  45  74 /  30  20  20  30
Red River.......................  39  65  39  65 /  30  20  20  40
Angel Fire......................  31  69  32  69 /  40  40  30  50
Taos............................  41  78  41  78 /  20  20  20  20
Mora............................  41  75  43  74 /  40  40  40  50
Espanola........................  51  83  51  83 /  20  20  20  20
Santa Fe........................  53  78  55  78 /  30  30  30  30
Santa Fe Airport................  49  82  51  81 /  20  20  20  20
Albuquerque Foothills...........  56  85  58  84 /  10  20  20  20
Albuquerque Heights.............  58  86  58  85 /  10  20  20  20
Albuquerque Valley..............  57  88  57  86 /  10  20  20  20
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  56  86  57  86 /  10  20  20  20
Los Lunas.......................  50  88  53  86 /  10  20  20  20
Rio Rancho......................  57  87  56  86 /  10  20  20  20
Socorro.........................  55  91  56  89 /   5  20  20  20
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  50  79  52  78 /  10  20  20  30
Tijeras.........................  51  83  52  81 /  10  20  20  30
Moriarty/Estancia...............  41  83  44  82 /  20  20  20  40
Clines Corners..................  48  78  51  77 /  30  30  30  40
Gran Quivira....................  50  83  53  81 /  10  20  20  30
Carrizozo.......................  59  84  57  81 /  10  20  30  30
Ruidoso.........................  48  75  48  73 /  30  40  40  50
Capulin.........................  47  78  48  78 /  30  30  40  40
Raton...........................  43  80  45  81 /  30  20  20  30
Springer........................  46  81  45  81 /  30  40  50  40
Las Vegas.......................  45  76  46  77 /  40  40  40  40
Clayton.........................  53  83  55  84 /  30  20  40  20
Roy.............................  52  78  54  79 /  40  20  50  20
Conchas.........................  58  85  59  86 /  50  20  30  20
Santa Rosa......................  55  84  56  84 /  40  30  30  30
Tucumcari.......................  59  87  60  86 /  40  30  40  20
Clovis..........................  57  85  59  83 /  60  30  40  30
Portales........................  59  86  59  84 /  60  40  60  30
Fort Sumner.....................  60  86  60  85 /  50  30  30  20
Roswell.........................  64  90  63  88 /  60  30  60  30
Picacho.........................  57  82  56  81 /  40  50  60  40
Elk.............................  54  81  52  78 /  50  40  60  50

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

11

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
356 AM MDT Sun Jun 2 2019

NMZ501>540-031100-
Northwest Plateau-Chuska Mountains-Far Northwest Highlands-
Northwest Highlands-West Central Plateau-West Central Mountains-
West Central Highlands-Southwest Mountains-
San Francisco River Valley-San Juan Mountains-Jemez Mountains-
West Slopes Sangre de Cristo Mountains-
Northern Sangre de Cristos above 9500 feet/Red River-
Southern Sangre de Cristos above 9500 feet-
East Slopes Sangre de Cristo Mountains-Upper Rio Grande Valley-
Lower Chama River Valley-Santa Fe Metro Area-
Middle Rio Grande Valley/Albuquerque Metro Area-
Lower Rio Grande Valley-Sandia/Manzano Mountains-Estancia Valley-
Central Highlands-South Central Highlands-Upper Tularosa Valley-
South Central Mountains-Raton Ridge/Johnson Mesa-
Far Northeast Highlands-Northeast Highlands-Union County-
Harding County-Eastern San Miguel County-Guadalupe County-
Quay County-Curry County-Roosevelt County-De Baca County-
Chaves County Plains-Eastern Lincoln County-Southwest Chaves County-
356 AM MDT Sun Jun 2 2019

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of north and central
New Mexico.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Strong to severe storms are likely this afternoon and evening from
the central mountains to the Texas border. Most of the activity will
be between 1200pm and 900pm. Damaging wind gusts and large hail are
the main threats with these storms, although we cannot rule out an
isolated tornado. Additionally, thunderstorms west of the central
mountain chain may result in gusty and erratic winds.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

Daily rounds of showers and thunderstorms are expected through mid
week across eastern New Mexico. Some storms will be severe with large
hail and damaging winds, although a tornado is also possible. The
potential for severe weather is greatest through Monday. Also, any
area that sees repeated rounds of heavy rainfall will be at risk for
localized flooding.

Meanwhile, across central and western New Mexico, a mix of wet and
dry storms may produce gusty and erratic winds Monday and Tuesday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report severe weather through the
National Weather Service Albuquerque web site at weather.gov/abq or
by calling 1.888.386.7637. You can also submit storm reports and
photos on our Facebook page or via Twitter using the hashtag nmwx.

40

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