Severe Thunderstorm Warning 53, NWS Albuquerque, NM

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1110 AM MDT Sat Jun 1 2019

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
The primary focus today will be severe convection along and east of
the central mt chain, particularly in the window from 20Z to 03Z.
Convective activity within the RGV and surrounding higher terrain
will produce strong and erratic outflow wind gusts while the activity
in the east will be capable of producing large hail, damaging winds,
and perhaps a tornado or two. Once convective activity shifts east
into the plains overnight an area of low cigs is expected to develop
in its wake. Areas around KLVS and KTCC will be most favorable for
MVFR low cigs with perhaps some SHRA and patchy fog around sunrise.
Another round of severe storms is possible on Sunday over eastern NM.

Guyer

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...243 AM MDT Sat Jun 1 2019...
.SYNOPSIS...
Daily rounds of showers and thunderstorms are expected for portions
of eastern New Mexico through the middle of next week. Some storms
may be severe with large hail and damaging winds, though an tornado
cannot be ruled out. Best chances for severe weather will be today
through Monday. Heavy rain and flooding will also become an
increasing concern as storms roll over the same areas repeatedly.
Thunderstorms will be possible across western New Mexico today and
Monday as well. These storms may produce gusty winds. Temperatures
will remain at or below normal for the next seven days.
/evening
&&

.DISCUSSION...
An active pattern remains forecast over the next few days as abundant
low level moisture remains in place across eastern NM and an upper
level low pressure system remains over southern CA. Weak
perturbations in southwest flow aloft should help trigger storms
each afternoon.

For today, storms are expected to develop early this afternoon and
shift east/northeast. Storms roughly north of I-40 look to become
multicellular rather quickly thanks to lower effective shear values.
Hail will be the main threat with these storms initially, but as
they grow upscale as they shift toward Texas/Oklahoma, winds will
become more of a threat. Further south, storms look to have the
potential to remain more discrete initially with greater instability
present and effective shear values AOA 35kts. Thus, potential for
severe weather seems somewhat greater here.

What happens on Sunday will largely depend on what happens today. If
cloud cover persists, or if remnant boundaries are present, it will
change the outlook some. For now, potential for severe weather exists
again across eastern NM. The dryline will be sharper than today near
or just east of the central mountain chain as dry southwest flow
mixes to the surface across the west. Flow at the surface should be
backed more than today and CAPE values will be higher. Models are
hinting at two areas of storm development. The first near/east of the
Sangre de Cristo Mountains which again looks to grow upscale and
organize as it moves across northeast NM. Hail and damaging winds
should be the main threats with these storms. The second is along the
east slopes of the south central mountains, much like last night.
These storms again will have the potential to remain more discrete
initially before shifting eastward toward Texas.

And then there's Monday, and again, it should go without saying that
it will depend on how today and tomorrow shake out. Overall though,
the pattern will be similar to today and Sunday. Thus, a severe
weather threat will exist across eastern NM with moist upslope flow.

By Tuesday, the upper low will be scooting across the southern AZ
border. Models are suggesting that the low level moisture will mix
out somewhat more than previous days with a slightly more westerly
component to the winds. This remains to be seen, but even still,
moisture values will remain quite high across the plains.
Interestingly though, the GFS remains quite bullish at breaking out
widespread precip across the plains, while the ECMWF breaks out
little QPF.

The low will cross over NM from southwest to northeast on Wednesday,
a bit earlier than thought previously. Thunderstorms will remain in
the forecast across the north and east, but behind the system on
Thursday, drier air will be marching into NM, significantly limiting
thunderstorm potential. Perhaps even a few dry days are in store for
the east at the end of next week.

What about western NM? A few thunderstorms will be possible today
mainly along and east of the ContDvd. Gusty winds will be possible
with these storms as suggested by the large inverted-V forecast
soundings. Sunday should just feature breezy southwest winds but not
much, if any, storms. However, Monday should be more like today, with
a few storms with gusty winds possible.

34

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
The weather will be dominated by low level, moist flow from the
south through the middle of next week, thanks to a stalled upper low
over CA. It will take until Wednesday for the low to reach NM. This
will result in daily rounds of showers and thunderstorms each
afternoon into the night through Wednesday. Storms in the west will
be a mixture of dry and wet, with strong and gusty outflow winds
possible the closer to AZ you go. Storms in the east will be wet with
heavy rain in many of the storms. The closer to the TX border, the
greater the threat for severe weather with large hail and damaging
wind gusts and potentially an isolated tornado. Brief drying in the
mid levels Sunday will cut back on convection in the west. The most
active days in the east will be this weekend and perhaps early next
week. The most widespread convection looks to be Monday through
Wednesday with the approach and passage of the upper low. A drying
trend will begin Thursday and continue into next weekend. It may take
until next Saturday before the forecast area is completely free of
rain.

There will be no critical fire weather conditions through the next
seven days and no widespread poor ventilation. High Haines will
favor the west through mid-week. Moderate or lower Haines is
forecast for Thursday, then widespread moderate to high values are
expected Friday into next weekend.

CHJ

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
254 AM MDT Sat Jun 1 2019

NMZ501>540-021100-
Northwest Plateau-Chuska Mountains-Far Northwest Highlands-
Northwest Highlands-West Central Plateau-West Central Mountains-
West Central Highlands-Southwest Mountains-
San Francisco River Valley-San Juan Mountains-Jemez Mountains-
West Slopes Sangre de Cristo Mountains-
Northern Sangre de Cristos above 9500 feet/Red River-
Southern Sangre de Cristos above 9500 feet-
East Slopes Sangre de Cristo Mountains-Upper Rio Grande Valley-
Lower Chama River Valley-Santa Fe Metro Area-
Middle Rio Grande Valley/Albuquerque Metro Area-
Lower Rio Grande Valley-Sandia/Manzano Mountains-Estancia Valley-
Central Highlands-South Central Highlands-Upper Tularosa Valley-
South Central Mountains-Raton Ridge/Johnson Mesa-
Far Northeast Highlands-Northeast Highlands-Union County-
Harding County-Eastern San Miguel County-Guadalupe County-
Quay County-Curry County-Roosevelt County-De Baca County-
Chaves County Plains-Eastern Lincoln County-Southwest Chaves County-
254 AM MDT Sat Jun 1 2019

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of north and central
New Mexico.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Strong to severe storms are likely this afternoon and evening across
eastern New Mexico. Damaging wind gusts and large hail are the main
threats with these storms. Additionally, thunderstorms west of the
central mountain chain may also result in gusty and erratic winds.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

Daily rounds of showers and thunderstorms are expected through mid
week across eastern New Mexico. Some storms will be severe with large
hail and damaging winds, though a tornado is also possible. The
potential for severe weather is greatest through Monday. Also, any
area that sees repeated rounds of heavy rainfall will be at risk for
localized flooding.

Meanwhile, across central and western New Mexico, a mix of wet and
dry storms may produce gusty and erratic winds on Monday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report severe weather through the
National Weather Service Albuquerque web site at weather.gov/abq or
by calling 1.888.386.7637. You can also submit storm reports and
photos on our Facebook page or via Twitter using the hashtag nmwx.

34

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