Severe Thunderstorm Warning 45, NWS Albuquerque, NM

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
543 PM MDT Sun May 26 2019

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
Severe weather impacting much of the eastern plains through 03Z with
large hail, damaging winds and an isolated tornado. Winds will begin
to taper off after 00Z in the west and central area impacted by gusty
thunderstorms. VFR conditions expected everywhere after 06Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...224 PM MDT Sun May 26 2019...
.SYNOPSIS...
An active afternoon and evening of weather on the eastern plains as
convection is beginning to fire along the dry line. Dry thunderstorms
a concern farther west as well into the evening. The east will finally
dry out Monday as the west coast storm moves east toward the four
corners region late Monday. Strong winds are expected in southern and
especially eastern areas Monday afternoon. Showers will be delegated
to the northwest. Temperatures will turn cooler. The storm will move
away Tuesday leaving mostly dry and cool weather. The next trough
wills wing through Wednesday with a back door cold front into the
east Wednesday night. Return flow moisture may re-activate the eastern
plains with daily rounds of showers and storms for the end of the
week into the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Severe weather a threat through early to mid evening across the
eastern plains with deep moisture and instability to go with decent
lower level inflow. Some dry storms with lots of high based CU
developing within the thin layer of mid-level moisture seen on
morning soundings in western and central NM. Strong outflow winds
may create some virga bombs into early evening in central and western
zones. Dry later tonight everywhere.

The western storm will move to the Great Basin Monday and four corners
region Monday night before lifting northeast Tuesday. Surface cold
front will follow from west to east Tuesday, with a weak back door
front sneaking into the northeast Tuesday night. Biggest concern
Monday will be the winds, with advisory criteria winds over much of
the south and east. Any showers/storms will be in the northwest
closest to the approaching system. Tuesday will be mostly dry with
less wind, but with below normal temperatures.

A weak short wave trough in the northwest flow will cross NM
Wednesday with showers and storms in the west and north and below
normal high temperatures continuing. A healthier back door front push
will move south across all the east Wednesday night. Return flow
moisture Thursday into the weekend may set up another dry line in
the east with daily rounds of showers and thunderstorms. High
temperatures will increase while winds will not be too strong.

CHJ

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Strong south to southwest winds will begin to taper off after
sunset this evening. The threat of erratic gusty winds from dry
thunderstorm activity has increased over the western half of the
state focusing over the middle RGV then extending into the Central
Highlands and far Northeast Highlands this evening. Meanwhile, the
dryline is oriented just west of the Pecos River, and just east of
Las Vegas to Raton this afternoon. Strong to severe storms will
develop along this line before quickly moving northeast capable of
producing frequent lightning, large hail, locally heavy rainfall, and
strong downburst winds.

Strong southwest winds peak in strength Monday, focusing through
FWZ103 with peak gusts up to 50kts. The dryline will keep early
morning moisture roughly one county deep into eastern NM Monday, but
will quickly advance eastward into TX in the afternoon. MinRHs
plummet as a result across the east. Ventilation remains excellent
Tuesday with cooler temperatures and winds turning westerly behind a
Pacific cold front. Showers will favor the northern high terrain
Monday night into Tuesday. Lighter winds for the rest of the week,
backdoor cold front will replenish moisture through the eastern
plains Wednesday with return moisture from the Gulf late in the week.
Temperatures also trend back up Wed-Fri.

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory until 8 PM MDT this evening for the following zones...
 NMZ505>508-516-518>529-532-533-537>540.

Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for the following
zones... NMZ106-107-109.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
351 AM MDT Sun May 26 2019

NMZ501>540-271100-
Northwest Plateau-Chuska Mountains-Far Northwest Highlands-
Northwest Highlands-West Central Plateau-West Central Mountains-
West Central Highlands-Southwest Mountains-
San Francisco River Valley-San Juan Mountains-Jemez Mountains-
West Slopes Sangre de Cristo Mountains-
Northern Sangre de Cristos above 9500 feet/Red River-
Southern Sangre de Cristos above 9500 feet-
East Slopes Sangre de Cristo Mountains-Upper Rio Grande Valley-
Lower Chama River Valley-Santa Fe Metro Area-
Middle Rio Grande Valley/Albuquerque Metro Area-
Lower Rio Grande Valley-Sandia/Manzano Mountains-Estancia Valley-
Central Highlands-South Central Highlands-Upper Tularosa Valley-
South Central Mountains-Raton Ridge/Johnson Mesa-
Far Northeast Highlands-Northeast Highlands-Union County-
Harding County-Eastern San Miguel County-Guadalupe County-
Quay County-Curry County-Roosevelt County-De Baca County-
Chaves County Plains-Eastern Lincoln County-Southwest Chaves County-
351 AM MDT Sun May 26 2019

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of north and central
New Mexico.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

There is an enhanced risk of severe thunderstorms for the eastern
plains of New Mexico this afternoon into the early evening hours.
The primary hazards will be large hail and damaging winds; however,
a tornado or two cannot be ruled out. Meanwhile, virga showers and
downburst winds are possible across central New Mexico during the
afternoon hours.

Widespread strong winds will impact areas along and south of the
Interstate 40 corridor in western and central New Mexico and lee of
the central mountain chain. Peak wind gusts up to 50 mph will result
in hazardous cross winds. Low relative humidities will combine with
the winds to create critical fire weather conditions for areas along
and south of southern McKinley to Torrance counties. Any fires that
develop will have the ability to spread rapidly.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

Strong to damaging winds are forecast for the northeast and central
highlands in eastern New Mexico on Monday afternoon. This will also
create dangerous cross winds along the Interstate 40 corridor from
Clines Corners to Santa Rosa.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be required from 12pm to 9pm MDT for areas
along and east of Colfax to Chaves Counties in eastern New Mexico
due to the potential for severe thunderstorms.

46

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
531 PM MDT SUN MAY 26 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0525 PM     TORNADO          1 W CLAYTON             36.45N 103.19W
05/26/2019                   UNION              NM   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

EVENT NUMBER ABQ201902209

DAK

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
553 PM MDT SUN MAY 26 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0522 PM     HAIL             12 S MOUNT DORA         36.34N 103.49W
05/26/2019  M2.50 INCH       UNION              NM   STORM CHASER

&&

EVENT NUMBER ABQ201902214

RJH