Severe Thunderstorm Warning 186, NWS Albuquerque, NM

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
526 PM MDT Thu Jun 27 2019

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
Upper high center to drift over nrn NM next 24 hrs with moisture
continuing to spread into wrn NM. Sct showers and tstms from the
Contdvd over ern NM at 23Z to persist until around 06Z, with
forecast models indicating some of the convection over ne NM at 23Z
to congeal and track swd into the east central and se plains thru 09Z
before dissipating. Brief MVFR cigs/vsbys in the stronger storms over
central and ern NM will also contain small hail and gusts to around
45kt. Convection to redevelop over the higher terrain aft 18Z, with
cell motions generally slower and more erratic due to the lighter
winds aloft.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...330 PM MDT Thu Jun 27 2019...
.SYNOPSIS...
Monsoon moisture will continue to stream northward over the state
through the weekend with daily rounds of showers and thunderstorms.
Moisture will become rich enough for locally heavy rainfall over
central, south central and potentially west central areas Friday and
Saturday, then over north central areas Sunday. Drier air will spread
into western areas early in the coming work week, while an easterly
wave keeps the eastern half of the state active with thunderstorms.
High temperatures will vary around normal until a few degrees of
cooling occurs during the first half of the coming work week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
The subtropical ridge will remain over the state through Friday
before migrating to the vicinity of NE this weekend with a ridge
axis stretching southwestward over NM. Meanwhile, under the ridge, a
plume of monsoon moisture will continue to stream northward across
NM. The moisture will become especially rich Friday and possibly
Saturday when precipitable water values are forecast to clim between
1-1.2 inches across central and south central parts of the forecast
area. Ample moisture and slow steering flow should enable locally
heavy rainfall with minor flooding problems and a risk of flash
flooding below burn scars.

Some of the moisture being sheared off of Pacific Tropical Storm
Alvin will cross the central Rockies late Sunday, as an upper trough
crosses the central Rockies, favoring the northern mountains for
1-1.15 inch PWATs and numerous thunderstorms.

The upper high is then forecast to build to the southwest of NM
during the first half of the coming work week, which should allow
some drier air to filter over northwest areas. However, an easterly
wave is forecast to lift northward from Big Bend along the eastern
NM/western TX border keeping storms active at least along and east
of the central mountain chain.

High temperatures will generally vary near normal until a few degrees
of cooling occurs in the wake of Sunday's upper trough.

44

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
The monsoon is slowly getting underway with a ridge of high pressure
expected to remain anchored over the Southwest U.S. allowing low and
mid-level moisture to move up from the south and southeast during
the next week to 10 days. Daily rounds of mainly scattered afternoon
and evening thunderstorms are expected Friday through the weekend,
especially central and west. Drier air is forecast to work in from
the northwest on Tuesday limiting thunderstorm coverage across
western and central NM but a backdoor cold front will bring low-
level moisture back into NM late-day Wednesday into Wedesday night.
A return of scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms is
forecast for Thursday and Friday.

33

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
5:00 AM MDT Thu Jun 27 2019

NMZ501>540-280945-
Northwest Plateau-Chuska Mountains-Far Northwest Highlands-
Northwest Highlands-West Central Plateau-West Central Mountains-
West Central Highlands-Southwest Mountains-
San Francisco River Valley-San Juan Mountains-Jemez Mountains-
West Slopes Sangre de Cristo Mountains-
Northern Sangre de Cristos above 9500 feet/Red River-
Southern Sangre de Cristos above 9500 feet-
East Slopes Sangre de Cristo Mountains-Upper Rio Grande Valley-
Lower Chama River Valley-Santa Fe Metro Area-
Middle Rio Grande Valley/Albuquerque Metro Area-
Lower Rio Grande Valley-Sandia/Manzano Mountains-Estancia Valley-
Central Highlands-South Central Highlands-Upper Tularosa Valley-
South Central Mountains-Raton Ridge/Johnson Mesa-
Far Northeast Highlands-Northeast Highlands-Union County-
Harding County-Eastern San Miguel County-Guadalupe County-
Quay County-Curry County-Roosevelt County-De Baca County-
Chaves County Plains-Eastern Lincoln County-Southwest Chaves County-
335 AM MDT Thu Jun 27 2019

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of north and central
New Mexico.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Gusty winds from virga or dry thunderstorms are possible this
afternoon and evening west of the Central Mountain Chain. Gusts may
exceed 50 mph. Meanwhile, across eastern New Mexico a few strong to
severe storms with large hail and damaging winds are possible
between 200 PM and 8 PM MDT. Storms near the Texas border have the
best chance of turning severe.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

Daily rounds of showers and thunderstorms are expected Friday through
the middle of next week. They will gradually turn wetter through the
period. Flash flooding will be possible on sensitive burn scars, and
become more likely as we go through the next week. Strong to
potentially severe thunderstorms are possible from roughly Roswell
to Clayton Friday afternoon.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report rain amounts, large hail or strong
winds through the National Weather Service Albuquerque web site at
weather.gov/abq or by calling 1.888.386.7637. You can also submit
storm reports and photos on our Facebook page or via Twitter using
the hashtag nmwx.

40

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