Severe Thunderstorm Warning 176, NWS Albuquerque, NM

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
502 PM MDT Mon Jun 17 2019

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
The Severe Tstorm Watch over eastern NM will be the main aviation
impact thru sunset as linear segments and discrete cells move to the
east into west TX overnight. The main impacts will be large hail,
strong outflow winds, frequent lightning, and locally heavy rainfall
with very low vsbys. Precip will exit overnight followed by low cigs
and patchy fog development east of the central mt chain. Favored
locales will include KLVS and any areas that receive heavier rains.
Drier air will move into the region Tuesday with overall less storm
coverage and slightly breezy southwest winds.

Guyer

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...324 PM MDT Mon Jun 17 2019...
.SYNOPSIS...
The focus for strong to severe thunderstorms will migrate to the
central mountain chain eastward this evening, with more ordinary
storms expected further west by then. Drier air will move over the
state on Tuesday, but enough moisture and instability should linger
for another round of strong to severe thunderstorms along and east of
the northern mountains Tuesday and Wednesday. Southwest winds will
begin to strengthen Thursday with breezy to windy conditions expected
on Friday and Saturday. A disturbance crossing the central Rockies
will return a chance of thunderstorms to the forecast for northern
areas on Saturday, then mainly to the northeast on Sunday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Strong to severe thunderstorms are expected this evening across
portions of central and eastern NM as a disturbance passing eastward
over the CO/NM border interacts with unusually rich moisture for
June. Drier air will infiltrate the state from the west tonight and
Tuesday in the wake of the disturbance with dry weather expected most
places on Tuesday. Scattered to isolated showers and thunderstorms on
Tuesday will favor the northern mountains eastward, where a back door
cold front may sag into the state with better moisture. An upper
level trough will also exit the central Rockies to the southeast on
Tuesday producing enough shear for a slight risk of severe
thunderstorms over NM's northeast plains. Another disturbance will
exit the central Rockies on Wednesday bringing yet another chance of
strong to severe storms to the northeast.

Thursday through the end of the work week a long wave trough will
deepen over the western US steering a dry southwest flow over the
state. Temperatures will rise near and above normal areawide on
Thursday, but readings will fall across the west on Friday as a
upper level low pressure system moves into the central Rockies.
Winds will begin to strengthen Thursday, then breezy to windy
conditions are expected Friday and Saturday as the upper low steers a
moderate jet stream over NM. If the storm system drops far enough to
the south, there will be a chance of showers and thunderstorms north
of I-40 on Saturday and Saturday night, then along and east of the
Sangre de Cristo Mountains on Sunday.

44

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Afternoon thunderstorm activity has flared up this afternoon over
the western and northern high terrain, and will expand in coverage
and progress over central and then eastern NM late this afternoon
and evening. Some storms will become severe with large hail,
frequent lightning, and damaging winds being the main concerns.
Storms across the west this afternoon will be a mix of dry and wet.

Storm coverage will be less Tue and more confined to along the NM/CO
border, with storms progressing into far northeastern NM later in
the day. A drier and warmer transition is expected to start
Wednesday with NW transport winds. Transport winds turn westerly Thu
and southwesterly by Fri, accompanied by warmer than normal
temperatures across the east and degrading humidity recoveries.
Single-digit MinRHs are also forecast across much of south-central
NM Thu and Fri. Haines6 becomes more widespread Thu and Fri,
enhancing the critical fire weather threat notably on Fri when winds
will be the strongest. Dry, hot, and breezy weather continues
Saturday.

24/RJH

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
409 AM MDT Mon Jun 17 2019

NMZ501>540-181200-
Northwest Plateau-Chuska Mountains-Far Northwest Highlands-
Northwest Highlands-West Central Plateau-West Central Mountains-
West Central Highlands-Southwest Mountains-
San Francisco River Valley-San Juan Mountains-Jemez Mountains-
West Slopes Sangre de Cristo Mountains-
Northern Sangre de Cristos above 9500 feet/Red River-
Southern Sangre de Cristos above 9500 feet-
East Slopes Sangre de Cristo Mountains-Upper Rio Grande Valley-
Lower Chama River Valley-Santa Fe Metro Area-
Middle Rio Grande Valley/Albuquerque Metro Area-
Lower Rio Grande Valley-Sandia/Manzano Mountains-Estancia Valley-
Central Highlands-South Central Highlands-Upper Tularosa Valley-
South Central Mountains-Raton Ridge/Johnson Mesa-
Far Northeast Highlands-Northeast Highlands-Union County-
Harding County-Eastern San Miguel County-Guadalupe County-
Quay County-Curry County-Roosevelt County-De Baca County-
Chaves County Plains-Eastern Lincoln County-Southwest Chaves County-
409 AM MDT Mon Jun 17 2019

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of north and central
New Mexico.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Severe storms are possible from the east slopes of the central
mountain chain east to the Texas border this afternoon and evening,
with the highest probabilities across the eastern plains. Large hail
and damaging winds will be the primary threats.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

A critical fire weather pattern will develop toward the end of the
work week and may extend into Saturday across eastern and southern
portions of New Mexico. Widespread critical fire weather conditions
are possible on Friday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be required this afternoon and evening for
portions of eastern New Mexico due to a severe thunderstorm threat.

11

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