Severe Thunderstorm Warning 108, NWS Albuquerque, NM

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
505 PM MDT Mon Jun 3 2019

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
Upper low over SoCal drifting to s of KPHX by 05/00Z with a moist
s-swly flow aloft continuing over NM. Tstms may produce a gusty e-se
wind at KSAF and KABQ between 04/01-06Z before diminishing. Sct
showers and tstms from the Contdvd ewd generally moving to the ne,
with a few strong to severe storms with large hail and wind gusts to
50kt from the east slopes of the central mt chain to the TX border.
Convection diminishing aft 04/03Z but isold activity possible til
around 04/07Z. Brief MVFR to IFR cigs/vsbys obscuring terrain in
convection. Potential for lcl MFVR to IFR cigs along the east slopes
of the central mt chain at 04/08Z but confidence low. Convection to
redevelop over the higher terrain by 04/18Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...142 PM MDT Mon Jun 3 2019...
.SYNOPSIS...
Strong to severe thunderstorms will remain possible over the area
tonight through Tuesday as a slow-moving storm system approaching
from the west interacts with abundant moisture across eastern New
Mexico. Large hail, damaging winds, heavy rainfall, lightning, and a
couple tornados are possible over parts of central and eastern New
Mexico. The storm system responsible for all the severe weather will
move over New Mexico Wednesday and increase the chance for showers
and storms in many areas, but fortunately, the threat for severe
weather will decrease. The focus for thunderstorms will shift into
northeast New Mexico Thursday while the remainder of the state warms
up and dries out. More typical June heat will arrive over the region
Friday through the weekend as high pressure develops over northern
Mexico.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A 574dm H5 low over southern CA will drift eastward into AZ through
Tuesday while low level moisture across TX continues advecting
northwestward into eastern New Mexico. This pattern will continue
the threat for strong to severe storms over the eastern half of the
state through Tuesday. Fortunately, the stronger mid and upper level
winds that assisted with deeper sheer and instability will shift
east and reduce the coverage of severe weather. Nonetheless, there
remains a slight risk for severe storms with damaging winds, large
hail, and a couple tornados today through Tuesday over at least
eastern NM.

By Wednesday, the upper wave fills to near 578dm while shifting east
over NM. This will lead to a lesser severe threat with the focus
more on slow-moving storms with heavy rainfall. PW values will rise
to near 0.75" over central and western NM so localized heavy rain
will increase compared to recent days. High temperatures Wednesday
will also be well below normal with deeper moisture and numerous
showers and storms. The upper wave shifts onto the south plains
Thursday and deepens again to near 574dm. Meanwhile, a shortwave
ridge begins building over western NM. This will lead to stronger
northwest flow over northeastern NM and the potential for stronger
storms again across the plains.

Much drier and warmer conditions are on the way Friday through the
weekend as strong warm advection leads to highs more typical for
early June. The first 90F reading is possible at KABQ with perhaps
the first 100F at KROW. If KABQ doesn't hit 90 by June 5th it will
be the latest first 90F reading since 1999.

Guyer

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
The potential for critical fire weather conditions will remain low
for at least the next 7 days with relatively light winds expected
over the entire region. Daily rounds of showers and storms will
continue over much of the area through Wednesday as an upper level
storm system moves slowly east through NM. Moisture levels will be
increasing even more as this storm system moves overhead Wednesday,
so a greater coverage of wet storms is likely across central and
western NM. Pics shared from the area over the recent stretch of
active weather show significant green up across a large chunk of
northern and eastern NM. Temps will also be below normal through
Wednesday.

Conditions will transition more into a typical early June pattern as
a ridge of high pressure begins building over the area Friday into
the weekend. This will result in widespread high haines with lower
humidity, much warmer temperatures, and continued light winds.

Guyer

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
104 PM MDT Mon Jun 3 2019

NMZ501>540-041100-
Northwest Plateau-Chuska Mountains-Far Northwest Highlands-
Northwest Highlands-West Central Plateau-West Central Mountains-
West Central Highlands-Southwest Mountains-
San Francisco River Valley-San Juan Mountains-Jemez Mountains-
West Slopes Sangre de Cristo Mountains-
Northern Sangre de Cristos above 9500 feet/Red River-
Southern Sangre de Cristos above 9500 feet-
East Slopes Sangre de Cristo Mountains-Upper Rio Grande Valley-
Lower Chama River Valley-Santa Fe Metro Area-
Middle Rio Grande Valley/Albuquerque Metro Area-
Lower Rio Grande Valley-Sandia/Manzano Mountains-Estancia Valley-
Central Highlands-South Central Highlands-Upper Tularosa Valley-
South Central Mountains-Raton Ridge/Johnson Mesa-
Far Northeast Highlands-Northeast Highlands-Union County-
Harding County-Eastern San Miguel County-Guadalupe County-
Quay County-Curry County-Roosevelt County-De Baca County-
Chaves County Plains-Eastern Lincoln County-Southwest Chaves County-
104 PM MDT Mon Jun 3 2019

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of north and central
New Mexico.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

There is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms this afternoon and
evening over eastern New Mexico where large hail, damaging winds,
flooding, frequent lightning strikes, and a couple tornados are
possible. Farther west into central and western New Mexico a couple
storms today will be capable of large hail and damaging winds.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

There is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms over southeastern New
Mexico Tuesday afternoon and evening where large hail, damaging
winds, flooding, frequent lightning strikes, and a couple tornados
are possible. Central New Mexico may see a couple strong storms with
mainly damaging winds and large hail Tuesday.

The storm system responsible for the extended stretch of severe
weather will move across New Mexico Wednesday. The threat for severe
storms will decrease however the potential for flooding and small
hail accumulations will increase as storm motions will be very weak.
The focus for a couple strong storms will shift into northeastern
New Mexico Thursday.

A more typical June hot weather pattern is in store for the state
Friday through the weekend.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be required today and Tuesday for eastern New
Mexico due to severe weather. To report severe weather you can reach
the National Weather Service at 1-888-386-7637 or by posting to
Twitter with #nmwx or visiting the Albuquerque Facebook page.

Guyer

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
522 PM MDT Mon Jun 3 2019

NMZ530-040000-
Union County-
522 PM MDT Mon Jun 3 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL UNION COUNTY UNTIL 600 PM
MDT...

At 521 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 8
miles south of Clayton Lake State Park, or 9 miles west of Clayton,
moving east at 35 mph.

Penny size hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Heavy rain will also be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Clayton, Grenville, Clayton Lake State Park, Seneca and Mount Dora.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor your preferred
media outlets and NOAA Weather Radio for additional information and
possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 900 PM MDT for
northeastern New Mexico.

LAT...LON 3650 10304 3633 10305 3636 10391 3660 10374
      3671 10300 3650 10300
TIME...MOT...LOC 2321Z 257DEG 31KT 3645 10334

KJ

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