Severe Thunderstorm Warning 10, NWS Albuquerque, NM

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
554 PM MDT Thu Apr 25 2019

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
The backdoor front has pushed up to the eastern slopes of the central
mountain chain. A decent cu field has also developed over the higher
terrain, with a couple of spot ts pushing east off the Sangres into
the Northeast Highlands from KRTN to KLVS. Expect potentially erratic
gusty outflow winds from any nearby ts. MVFR cigs have a good chance
of developing at KLVS overnight thanks to the upslope flow as well. An
east canyon wind is still forecast for KSAF and KABQ, with it
already beginning at KSAF this hour and reaching KABQ by 02Z. At the
moment, not expecting winds to reach AWW criteria at KABQ, however
outflow from any storms east of the central mountain chain may give
enough of a boost to reach AWW so it is not entirely out of the
question. The east wind may also help allow the few light dry showers
sw of KABQ to make it into the RGV, so left the VCSH there. Winds
will turn southerly Friday across the east, with a lee sfc low
developing over southeast CO. This will strengthen winds across the
east Friday afternoon.

24/RJH

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...306 PM MDT Thu Apr 25 2019...
.SYNOPSIS...
Backdoor cold front has made it south through the eastern plains.
Showers and a few thunderstorms will be noted over the northeastern
quarter or so of our CWA into the night. A few light showers will
impact central areas this evening. Friday will be warmer with a
similar pattern for convection. A back door cold front will inch into
the northeast Saturday, with this area the main focus for showers
and storms into Saturday night. Sunday will be dry and very warm. The
next significant storm system should impact NM early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
The backdoor cold front has made it south through the eastern plains
and west through the highlands. The upslope flow behind the front
and the boundary the front has created will be the focus for showers
and some thunderstorms, which may last well into the night. The
central mountains on east will be the favored areas, but a few light
showers and virga will occur in the Rio Grande Valley on west to the
Divide.

Friday will be similar to Thursday with regard to the coverage of
convection, mainly for the central mountains and northeast. High
temperatures will be warmer and above normal just about everywhere.

Another back door cold front will try and sneak into the northeast
Saturday, with limited success. But it will set up an area of
convergence in the northeast, helping fuel some showers and storms
Saturday afternoon and evening. The back door cold front will push
farther south and west Saturday evening.

Sunday will be very warm and dry with critical fire weather
conditions. A storm deepening off the southern CA coast will come
inland Monday. Models then differ on the timing of the upper low,
with the GFS faster than the CMC and ECMWF. We will have
precipitation in the forecast from Monday through Tuesday night,
with Monday night and Tuesday the most active. Wednesday will be
mostly dry and warmer. A back door cold front could impact the east
again next Wednesday night and Thursday.

CHJ

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A relatively active weather pattern expected across northern and
central New Mexico into the middle of next week with temperatures
generally above normal. However, several cold fronts will cause
temperatures to yo-yo over northeast and east central New Mexico.
One front has plunged through most of the eastern plains today and
another is expected Saturday as winds aloft remain out of the
northwest. Thereafter, drier southwest to westerly winds strengthen
Sunday in advance of a potential storm system and associated cold
front next Monday into Tuesday. Critical conditions are now
appearing widespread over the eastern plains Sunday afternoon.
Strong westerly winds may return next Wednesday followed by a
vigorous back door cold front next Thursday.

Showers and a few storms over the northern mountains this afternoon
will expand south and eastward this evening as the cold front pushes
into the Rio Grande Valley. Isolated to scattered showers and storms
will favor the northern mountains and northeast Friday into Saturday
with spotty wetting precipitation, although isolated activity could
occur along and east of the ContDvd into the East Central Plains.
Southwest breezes Friday over the northeast and east central are not
expected to trigger critical conditions due to minimum humidities
ranging from 15-25 percent. Saturday's front in the eastern plains
is forecast to remain east of the RGV.

Drier and stronger southwest to west winds Sunday with critical fire
weather conditions appearing widespread over the eastern plains in
the afternoon. Fair to poor humidity recoveries expected both
Saturday and Sunday night portions of the west and central. A storm
system will swing over the region Monday into Tuesday, with
temperatures cooling down overall but the majority of any
precipitation falling over the north and east. Strong westerly winds
may return next Wednesday but will be followed by a vigorous back
door cold front Thursday.

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&