High Wind Warning 6, NWS Albuquerque, NM

828 
WWUS75 KABQ 131840
NPWABQ

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1140 AM MST Wed Feb 13 2019

...ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG WINDS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN AND
EASTERN NM...

.A powerful jet stream moving over New Mexico today and tonight
will combine with surface low pressure over the eastern plains to
produce another round of strong winds. West winds will increase
over the Sangre de Cristo Mountains early this afternoon then
turn northwest and spread into the high plains of eastern New
Mexico tonight and Thursday. The strongest winds will impact the
east slopes of the Sangre de Cristo Mountains where gusts up to
65 mph are possible. The high plains of eastern New Mexico may
see gusts up to 55 mph. Winds will slowly diminish early Thursday
afternoon.

NMZ513>515-527-140500-
/O.CON.KABQ.HW.W.0006.190213T1900Z-190214T1900Z/
Northern Sangre de Cristos above 9500 feet/Red River-
Southern Sangre de Cristos above 9500 feet-
East Slopes Sangre de Cristo Mountains-Raton Ridge/Johnson Mesa-
1140 AM MST Wed Feb 13 2019

...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON MST THURSDAY...

* LOCATION...The Sangre de Cristo Mountains, Raton Ridge and 
  Johnson Mesa.

* WINDS...West to northwest 35 to 50 mph with gusts up to 65 mph.

* TIMING...Winds will increase early this afternoon then peak 
  tonight before tapering off through early Thursday afternoon. 

* VISIBILITY...Locally reduced in areas of blowing snow.

* LOCAL IMPACTS...The combination of high winds and blowing snow 
  will create hazardous travel conditions and reduced 
  visibility. Dangerous crosswinds will impact north to south 
  oriented roads. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Remember, A High Wind Warning means damaging winds are imminent
or highly likely. Sustained wind speeds of at least 40 mph or
gusts of 58 mph or more can lead to property damage.

&&

$$

NMZ523-528>534-537-539-140500-
/O.CON.KABQ.WI.Y.0010.190214T0700Z-190214T1900Z/
Central Highlands-Far Northeast Highlands-Northeast Highlands-
Union County-Harding County-Eastern San Miguel County-
Guadalupe County-Quay County-De Baca County-
Eastern Lincoln County-
1140 AM MST Wed Feb 13 2019

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON
MST THURSDAY...

* LOCATION...Union, Harding, Eastern San Miguel, Guadalupe, Quay,
  De Baca, and Eastern Lincoln counties as well as the Central 
  and Northeast Highlands. 

* WINDS...West to northwest 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 55 mph.

* TIMING...Winds will increase late this evening then peak early
  Thursday morning before tapering off early Thursday afternoon.

* VISIBILITY...Locally reduced in areas of blowing dust.

* LOCAL IMPACTS...Strong winds will lead to difficult travel 
  conditions along north to south oriented roads, including 
  Interstate 25 and U.S. Highways 54 and 285. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Motorists should exercise caution while travelling. Sudden gusts
of wind may cause you to lose control of your vehicle. Extra
attention should be given to cross winds.

&&

$$

174 
WWUS75 KABQ 132115
NPWABQ

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
215 PM MST Wed Feb 13 2019

...ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG WINDS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN AND
EASTERN NM...

.A powerful jet stream moving over New Mexico this afternoon and 
tonight will combine with surface low pressure over the eastern 
plains to produce another round of strong winds. West winds will 
increase over the Sangre de Cristo Mountains for the rest of this
afternoon then turn northwest while winds strengthen over much of
eastern New Mexico late this afternoon into Thursday. The 
strongest winds will impact the east slopes of the Sangre de 
Cristo Mountains where gusts up to 65 mph are possible. The high 
plains of eastern New Mexico may see gusts up to 55 mph. Winds 
will slowly diminish early Thursday afternoon.

NMZ513>515-527-140500-
/O.CON.KABQ.HW.W.0006.000000T0000Z-190214T1900Z/
Northern Sangre de Cristos above 9500 feet/Red River-
Southern Sangre de Cristos above 9500 feet-
East Slopes Sangre de Cristo Mountains-Raton Ridge/Johnson Mesa-
215 PM MST Wed Feb 13 2019

...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON MST THURSDAY...

* LOCATION...The Sangre de Cristo Mountains, Raton Ridge and 
  Johnson Mesa. 

* WINDS...West to northwest 35 to 50 mph with gusts up to 65 mph.

* TIMING...Winds will increase early this afternoon then peak 
  tonight before tapering off through early Thursday afternoon. 

* VISIBILITY...Locally reduced in areas of blowing snow.

* LOCAL IMPACTS...The combination of high winds and blowing snow 
  will create hazardous travel conditions and reduced 
  visibility. Dangerous crosswinds will impact north to south 
  oriented roads. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Remember, A High Wind Warning means damaging winds are imminent
or highly likely. Sustained wind speeds of at least 40 mph or
gusts of 58 mph or more can lead to property damage.

&&

$$

NMZ523-528>534-537-539-140500-
/O.EXT.KABQ.WI.Y.0010.190213T2115Z-190214T1900Z/
Central Highlands-Far Northeast Highlands-Northeast Highlands-
Union County-Harding County-Eastern San Miguel County-
Guadalupe County-Quay County-De Baca County-
Eastern Lincoln County-
215 PM MST Wed Feb 13 2019

...WIND ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON MST THURSDAY...

* LOCATION...Union, Harding, Eastern San Miguel, Guadalupe, 
  Quay, De Baca, and Eastern Lincoln counties as well as the 
  Central and Northeast Highlands. 

* WINDS...West to northwest 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 55 mph.

* TIMING...Strong winds this afternoon over portions of northeast
  and east central New Mexico may diminish around sunset but are
  expected to strengthen again late this evening. Winds should
  peak early Thursday morning before tapering off Thursday 
  afternoon. 

* VISIBILITY...Locally reduced in areas of blowing dust.

* LOCAL IMPACTS...Strong winds will lead to difficult travel 
  conditions along north to south oriented roads, including 
  Interstate 25 and U.S. Highways 54 and 285. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Motorists should exercise caution while travelling. Sudden gusts
of wind may cause you to lose control of your vehicle. Extra
attention should be given to cross winds.

&&

$$

404 
WWUS75 KABQ 140439
NPWABQ

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
939 PM MST Wed Feb 13 2019

...STRONG WINDS TO CONTINUE FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN AND EASTERN 
NM...

.A powerful jet stream moving over New Mexico tonight through
Thursday afternoon has combined with a strong surface pressure 
gradient over the eastern plains to produce another round of 
strong winds. Strong west-northwest winds will continue over the 
Sangre de Cristo Mountains and adjacent eastern slopes for the 
rest of tonight turning northwest while winds strengthen over much
of eastern New Mexico later Thursday morning. The strongest winds
will impact the east slopes of the Sangre de Cristo Mountains 
where gusts up to 65 mph are possible. The high plains of eastern 
New Mexico may see gusts up to 55 mph. Winds will slowly diminish 
Thursday afternoon.

NMZ513>515-527-141400-
/O.CON.KABQ.HW.W.0006.000000T0000Z-190214T1900Z/
Northern Sangre de Cristos above 9500 feet/Red River-
Southern Sangre de Cristos above 9500 feet-
East Slopes Sangre de Cristo Mountains-Raton Ridge/Johnson Mesa-
939 PM MST Wed Feb 13 2019

...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON MST THURSDAY...

* LOCATION...The Sangre de Cristo Mountains, Raton Ridge and 
  Johnson Mesa. 

* WINDS...West to northwest 35 to 50 mph with gusts up to 65 mph.

* TIMING...Winds will continue tonight before tapering off through  
  Thursday afternoon. 

* VISIBILITY...Locally reduced in areas of blowing snow.

* LOCAL IMPACTS...The combination of high winds and blowing snow 
  will create hazardous travel conditions and reduced 
  visibility. Dangerous crosswinds will impact north to south 
  oriented roads. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Remember, A High Wind Warning means damaging winds are imminent
or highly likely. Sustained wind speeds of at least 40 mph or
gusts of 58 mph or more can lead to property damage.

&&

$$

NMZ523-528>534-537-539-141400-
/O.CON.KABQ.WI.Y.0010.000000T0000Z-190214T1900Z/
Central Highlands-Far Northeast Highlands-Northeast Highlands-
Union County-Harding County-Eastern San Miguel County-
Guadalupe County-Quay County-De Baca County-
Eastern Lincoln County-
939 PM MST Wed Feb 13 2019

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON MST THURSDAY...

* LOCATION...Union, Harding, Eastern San Miguel, Guadalupe, 
  Quay, De Baca, and Eastern Lincoln counties as well as the 
  Central and Northeast Highlands. 

* WINDS...West to northwest 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 55 mph.

* TIMING...Strong winds over portions of northeast and east
  central New Mexico may diminish this evening but are expected to
  strengthen again near midnight into early Thursday morning. 
  Winds should peak early Thursday morning before tapering off 
  Thursday afternoon. 

* VISIBILITY...Locally reduced in areas of blowing dust.

* LOCAL IMPACTS...Strong winds will lead to difficult travel 
  conditions along north to south oriented roads, including 
  Interstate 25 and U.S. Highways 54 and 285. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Motorists should exercise caution while travelling. Sudden gusts
of wind may cause you to lose control of your vehicle. Extra
attention should be given to cross winds.

&&

$$

324 
WWUS75 KABQ 140820
NPWABQ

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
120 AM MST Thu Feb 14 2019

...VERY STRONG WINDS TO CONTINUE FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN AND 
EASTERN NEW MEXICO THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON...

.A powerful jet stream moving over New Mexico will combine with a
strong surface pressure gradient over the eastern plains to 
produce strong to very strong winds for the remainder of tonight
through Thursday afternoon. The strongest winds are expected
before sunrise this morning when damaging west wind gusts up to 
80 mph will impact the I-25 corridor from Las Vegas northward to 
Raton Pass. Winds along the I-25 corridor should decrease some 
with sunrise Thursday, while strengthening across much of the 
eastern plains and shifting out of the northwest. 

NMZ528-529-141900-
/O.UPG.KABQ.WI.Y.0010.000000T0000Z-190214T1900Z/
/O.EXA.KABQ.HW.W.0006.000000T0000Z-190214T1900Z/
Far Northeast Highlands-Northeast Highlands-
120 AM MST Thu Feb 14 2019

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON MST TODAY...

The National Weather Service in Albuquerque has issued a High
Wind Warning, which is in effect until noon MST today. The Wind
Advisory is no longer in effect. 

* LOCATION...Northeast and far northeast highlands including Las
  Vegas and Raton.

* WINDS...West at 40 t0 60 mph with gusts up to 80 mph through 8
  am, then shifting out of the northwest 25 to 40 mph with gusts
  around 55 mph. 

* TIMING...Damaging wind gusts will continue until around 8 am
  Thursday, when speeds will weaken some while remaining strong
  through mid day. Speeds will weaken in the late afternoon.
 
* VISIBILITY...Locally reduced below 3 miles in dust-prone
  locations.

* LOCAL IMPACTS...Dangerous crosswinds will impact north-to-south
  and northeast-to-southwest oriented roads, including I-25. Power
  outages will be possible as weak structures and some power lines
  collapse. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Remember, A High Wind Warning means damaging winds are imminent
or highly likely. Sustained wind speeds of at least 40 mph or
gusts of 58 mph or more can lead to property damage.

&&

$$

NMZ513>515-527-141900-
/O.CON.KABQ.HW.W.0006.000000T0000Z-190214T1900Z/
Northern Sangre de Cristos above 9500 feet/Red River-
Southern Sangre de Cristos above 9500 feet-
East Slopes Sangre de Cristo Mountains-Raton Ridge/Johnson Mesa-
120 AM MST Thu Feb 14 2019

...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON MST TODAY...

* LOCATION...The Sangre de Cristo Mountains, Raton Ridge and 
  Johnson Mesa. 

* WINDS...West to northwest 35 to 50 mph with gusts up to 65 mph.

* TIMING...Winds will continue tonight before tapering off 
  through Thursday afternoon. 

* VISIBILITY...Locally reduced below 1 mile in areas of blowing 
  snow.

* LOCAL IMPACTS...The combination of high winds and blowing snow
  will create hazardous travel conditions and reduced visibility.
  Dangerous crosswinds will impact north-to-south oriented roads.
  Flimsy structures may collapse, and unsecured objects may become
  airborne.
  

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Remember, A High Wind Warning means damaging winds are imminent
or highly likely. Sustained wind speeds of at least 40 mph or
gusts of 58 mph or more can lead to property damage.

&&

$$

NMZ523-530>534-537-539-141900-
/O.CON.KABQ.WI.Y.0010.000000T0000Z-190214T1900Z/
Central Highlands-Union County-Harding County-
Eastern San Miguel County-Guadalupe County-Quay County-
De Baca County-Eastern Lincoln County-
120 AM MST Thu Feb 14 2019

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON MST TODAY...

* LOCATION...Union, Harding, Eastern San Miguel, Guadalupe, 
  Quay, De Baca, and Eastern Lincoln counties as well as the 
  Central and Northeast Highlands. 

* WINDS...West to northwest 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 55 mph.

* TIMING...Strong winds over portions of northeast and east 
  central New Mexico may diminish this evening but are expected 
  to strengthen again near midnight into early Thursday morning. 
  Winds should peak early Thursday morning before tapering off 
  Thursday afternoon. 

* VISIBILITY...Locally reduced in areas of blowing dust.

* LOCAL IMPACTS...Hazardous crosswinds will impact north-to-south
  and northwest-to-southeast oriented roads. Flimsy structures may
  collapse, and unsecured objects may become airborne.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Motorists should exercise caution while travelling. Sudden gusts
of wind may cause you to lose control of your vehicle. Extra
attention should be given to cross winds.

&&

$$

44

548 
WWUS75 KABQ 141849
NPWABQ

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1149 AM MST Thu Feb 14 2019

...STRONG WINDS TO CONTINUE FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN AND EASTERN 
NEW MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON...

.Strong to possibly damaging winds will continue this afternoon 
over portions of the Sangre de Cristo mountains and Northeast 
Highlands. Strong winds will also be found over much of the
Northeast and East Central Plains this afternoon. Winds are 
expected to decrease late this afternoon. 

NMZ537-539-142000-
/O.CAN.KABQ.WI.Y.0010.000000T0000Z-190214T1900Z/
De Baca County-Eastern Lincoln County-
1149 AM MST Thu Feb 14 2019

...WIND ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

The National Weather Service in Albuquerque has cancelled the
Wind Advisory. 

$$

NMZ513>515-527>529-150000-
/O.EXT.KABQ.HW.W.0006.000000T0000Z-190215T0000Z/
Northern Sangre de Cristos above 9500 feet/Red River-
Southern Sangre de Cristos above 9500 feet-
East Slopes Sangre de Cristo Mountains-Raton Ridge/Johnson Mesa-
Far Northeast Highlands-Northeast Highlands-
1149 AM MST Thu Feb 14 2019

...HIGH WIND WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS
AFTERNOON...

* LOCATION...Sangre de Cristo Mountains, Raton Ridge and Johnson
  Mesa, as well as the Far Northeast and Northeast Highlands,  
  including Las Vegas and Raton. 

* WINDS...West to northwest 30 to 45 mph with gusts up to 60 mph.  
 
* TIMING...Locally damaging wind gusts will continue into the
  early and mid afternoon before slowly decreasing. 

* VISIBILITY...Locally reduced below 3 miles in dust prone 
  locations. 

* LOCAL IMPACTS...Dangerous crosswinds will impact north to south
  oriented roads, including Interstate 25. Power outages will be 
  possible as weak structures and some power lines collapse. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Remember, A High Wind Warning means damaging winds are imminent
or highly likely. Sustained wind speeds of at least 40 mph or
gusts of 58 mph or more can lead to property damage.

&&

$$

NMZ523-530>534-150000-
/O.EXT.KABQ.WI.Y.0010.000000T0000Z-190215T0000Z/
Central Highlands-Union County-Harding County-
Eastern San Miguel County-Guadalupe County-Quay County-
1149 AM MST Thu Feb 14 2019

...WIND ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON...

* LOCATION...Union, Harding, Eastern San Miguel, Guadalupe, Quay,
  De Baca, and Eastern Lincoln counties as well as the Central 
  Highlands. 

* WINDS...West to northwest 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 55 mph.

* TIMING...Strong winds will develop again over portions of
  northeast and east central early this afternoon then taper off
  late in the day. 

* VISIBILITY...Locally reduced in areas of blowing dust.

* LOCAL IMPACTS...Hazardous crosswinds will impact north-to-
  south and northwest-to-southeast oriented roads. Flimsy 
  structures may collapse, and unsecured objects may become 
  airborne. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Motorists should exercise caution while travelling. Sudden gusts
of wind may cause you to lose control of your vehicle. Extra
attention should be given to cross winds.

&&

$$

253 
WWUS75 KABQ 142229
NPWABQ

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
329 PM MST Thu Feb 14 2019

NMZ513>515-527>529-142330-
/O.CAN.KABQ.HW.W.0006.000000T0000Z-190215T0000Z/
Northern Sangre de Cristos above 9500 feet/Red River-
Southern Sangre de Cristos above 9500 feet-
East Slopes Sangre de Cristo Mountains-Raton Ridge/Johnson Mesa-
Far Northeast Highlands-Northeast Highlands-
329 PM MST Thu Feb 14 2019

...HIGH WIND WARNING IS CANCELLED...

The National Weather Service in Albuquerque has cancelled the
High Wind Warning. 

Winds will continue to gradually diminish through late afternoon.

$$

NMZ523-530>534-142330-
/O.CAN.KABQ.WI.Y.0010.000000T0000Z-190215T0000Z/
Central Highlands-Union County-Harding County-
Eastern San Miguel County-Guadalupe County-Quay County-
329 PM MST Thu Feb 14 2019

...WIND ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

The National Weather Service in Albuquerque has cancelled the
Wind Advisory. 

Winds will continue to gradually diminish through late afternoon.

$$

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1023 PM MST Tue Feb 12 2019

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
Ceilings will gradually lower from west to east overnight through
Wednesday, ending up around BKN100 in the west, BKN120 central areas
and BKN150-200 in the east. VFR conditions will persist through the
next 24 hours. Strong winds will develop at KLVS and KTCC Wednesday
afternoon with gusts around 40 kt.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...244 PM MST Tue Feb 12 2019...
.SYNOPSIS...
A warming trend will continue through Wednesday, with windy
conditions across the eastern plains. Pacific moisture will increase
over the area Thursday into Friday as a disturbance races east across
the southern Rockies, bringing good chances for precipitation and
windy conditions to much of northern and western New Mexico. The
lower elevations will receive rain late Thursday through early
Friday, but the higher elevations of the northern mountains may see
rather significant snow accumulation. Another disturbance will bring
even stronger winds and additional snow to northern New Mexico on
Saturday, with additional snow accumulation to the northern
mountains. A more impactful winter storm is shaping-up for Sunday
night through Tuesday and will bring much colder temperatures and
some accumulating snow to lower elevation locales of northern and
central New Mexico.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A warming trend is underway and will continue into Wednesday despite
increasing clouds. Daytime temperatures will rise above normal
Wednesday, especially across the eastern plains due in part to a
deepening lee side trough enhancing downslope winds. Critical fire
weather conditions are forecast across eastern portions of New Mexico
tomorrow (see Fire Weather discussion below for details) in what
looks to be our first red flag event of the year.

Moisture advection will ramp-up late Wednesday through Thursday as a
Pacific moisture tap brings PWATs well above normal. Both the 12Z GFS
and NAM show the PWAT at KABQ rising above 0.70" late Thursday night,
which would be a new calendar day record high value. This is an
important consideration given the jet dynamics and orographic
forcing forecast late Thursday through Friday, which will allow for
significant snowfall accumulation. That said, 700mb temperatures are
forecast to be between -1.5C and 1.0C, so this will be a high terrain
event with rain generally forecast below 7500ft. In particular, the
northern mountains could quickly pile-up 2 feet of snow across the
peaks and higher west-facing slopes between Thursday night and Friday
in what looks to be a high liquid equivalent event. A Winter Storm
Watch will be considered by later shifts. Strong winds are the other
part of this weather story, hitting the peaks/east slopes of the
central mountain chain and adjacent eastern highlands beginning
Wednesday night into Thursday morning, then impacting much of eastern
New Mexico on Friday as an upper level trough moves over. Both the
12Z GFS and ECMWF show a stronger trough moving across the southern
Rockies Saturday, bringing another round of snow to the northern high
terrain and another round of even stronger winds to a larger portion
of the state. Saturday will likely be the windiest day of the next
seven. A Pacific cold front will accompany Saturday's trough and will
bring colder temperatures to the area through Sunday.

A more impactful winter storm is shaping-up for Sunday night through
Tuesday, with good agreement from the 12Z GFS and ECMWF leading to
moderate forecaster confidence given the forecast projection
(144-180hrs). The setup involves a cold upper low around 540dam at
500mb swinging east across AZ into NM, while a strong backdoor cold
front wedges into eastern NM and attempts to push through the gaps in
the central mountain chain. This system will bring much colder
temperatures to the region and may bring accumulating snow to a
number of lower elevations locales that will miss-out on the first
two troughs.

11

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

...RED FLAG WARNING FOR THE NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS BELOW SNOWPACK TO
THE NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL PLAINS FROM LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING
INTO THE EARLY EVENING...

Quiet weather expected tonight; however, a dry air mass over the
region will allow for poor overnight recovery across the upr Gila
and eastern NM. A warmer day is on tap for Wed, with highs 10-15
degrees above normal in the east. Winds should be on the increase
along/east of the central mts throughout the morning and afternoon
hours as 700mb winds approach 50kts. One limiting factor will be
increasing clouds that may reduce the mixing potential. Regardless,
minimum humidity will drop into the single digits over the eastern
plains. Not to discount the west, winds may be just shy of critical
thresholds. In coordination with SPC, they introduced an Elevated
Category on their Day 2 outlook (McKinley to Catron counties).

Moisture levels will be on the increase Wed night across the west,
expanding eastward during the day on Thur. As a result, relative
humidity will improve dramatically by Thur night. Expect sfc winds
to be higher on Thur along/east of the central mts due to fast flow
aloft and a tightening sfc pressure gradient. Humidity values will
be the limiting factor for RFW conditions; however, SPC outlined an
elevated area on their Day 3 outlook - which is very reasonable.
Ventilation rates on Thur will be poor in the northwest and ranging
from very good-excellent in the east.

Wetting pcpn will impact western/northern NM for Thur through Fri,
with several inches of snow likely along the west-facing slopes of
the San Juan/Tusas Mts. Breezy to windy conditions will continue to
plague the region on Fri, and especially Sat as a 300mb jet streak
stretches from southern CA to the Carolinas; nearly 165 kts over NM.
Opted to increase surface winds, and further adjustments upward can
be expected if models maintain this solution. If slightly drier air
materializes across the east on Sat, we could see another round of
critical fire weather conditions.

While it's still a ways out there, there is rather high confidence
that significantly colder air will invade NM early next week. Higher
humidity and winter pcpn may be the rule for Monday/Tuesday.

DPorter

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning from 10 AM to 7 PM MST Wednesday for the following
zones... NMZ103-104-108.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
451 AM MST Tue Feb 12 2019

NMZ501>540-131200-
Northwest Plateau-Chuska Mountains-Far Northwest Highlands-
Northwest Highlands-West Central Plateau-West Central Mountains-
West Central Highlands-Southwest Mountains-
San Francisco River Valley-San Juan Mountains-Jemez Mountains-
West Slopes Sangre de Cristo Mountains-
Northern Sangre de Cristos above 9500 feet/Red River-
Southern Sangre de Cristos above 9500 feet-
East Slopes Sangre de Cristo Mountains-Upper Rio Grande Valley-
Lower Chama River Valley-Santa Fe Metro Area-
Middle Rio Grande Valley/Albuquerque Metro Area-
Lower Rio Grande Valley-Sandia/Manzano Mountains-Estancia Valley-
Central Highlands-South Central Highlands-Upper Tularosa Valley-
South Central Mountains-Raton Ridge/Johnson Mesa-
Far Northeast Highlands-Northeast Highlands-Union County-
Harding County-Eastern San Miguel County-Guadalupe County-
Quay County-Curry County-Roosevelt County-De Baca County-
Chaves County Plains-Eastern Lincoln County-Southwest Chaves County-
451 AM MST Tue Feb 12 2019

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of north and central
New Mexico.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

No hazardous weather is expected.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

Wednesday, strong wind and very low humidity have the potential to
produce critical fire weather conditions across the northeast
highlands and eastern plains.

Wednesday night through Thursday night, an upper level trough with a
rich tap of Pacific moisture has the potential to produce a few to
several inches of snow across the northwest highlands, upper Rio
Grande Valley and northern mountains. The Tusas Mountains should
receive the most snow, where Chama may accumulate over 10 inches and
higher peaks could top 1.5 feet. In addition, the storm system will
produce strong west winds with gusts from 45 to potentially over 55
mph along and east of the central mountain chain. Gusts could reach
around 60 mph in the mountains and across the plains between Las
Vegas and Tucumcari. Strong winds will begin on higher peaks
Wednesday night, before spreading to the eastern plains Thursday,
then lingering over the mountains into Thursday evening.

Sunday night and Monday, models are in fairly good agreement on an
upper level low pressure system crossing from the west with the
potential for widespread and potentially significant snow
accumulation. A back door cold front is forecast to arrive just
before the upper level storm does, delivering cold air and moist
easterly upslope flow to the eastern plains.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.

44