High Wind Warning 17, NWS Albuquerque, NM

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
525 AM MDT Sun Oct 20 2019

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
Strong W/NW winds will ramp up through the morning peaking in the
afternoon as a Pacific cold front passes through the area from west
to east. Gusts of 25-35kts will be common for the northern half of
the state while peak gusts of 35-45kts will be possible through
portions of the east-central plains along the I-40 corridor. Areas of
bldu are possible, but confidence is not high enough to include any
vis reductions at any one TAF location. Winds will taper off after
sunset.

24/RJH

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...232 AM MDT Sun Oct 20 2019...
.SYNOPSIS...
Northwest flow aloft will be the rule through the forecast period
with occasional short wave troughs zipping across the state and
associated cold fronts at the surface. Currently a trough is moving
across New Mexico and a cold front is poised to cross the state
today. The next trough and front will have stronger impacts
Wednesday night through Thursday night. Precipitation will be likely
and affect areas from the Sangres east to the TX border. Accumulating
snow will be possible in the Sangre de Cristo Mountains. A third
storm will bring unsettled weather next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
The first upper level trough will swing across NM today with a
Pacific cold front. The only precipitation could be east of Chama
at the Colorado border. The main weather features will be the wind
and cooler temperatures.

Monday and Tuesday will be dry. Breezy to windy conditions will
continue Monday, then diminish Tuesday. Monday will be cool while
Tuesday warms up.

The next short wave trough and associated cold front will impact the
state from Wednesday through Thursday night. Chilly temperatures,
stiff winds and rain and higher elevation snow showers are likely.

Friday and next weekend will be dry with a warming trend through
Saturday. Yet another short wave trough will approach Sunday. A
strong back door cold front will bring back cooler temperatures,
especially in the east.

CHJ

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER EASTERN NEW MEXICO TODAY AND TO A LESSER
EXTENT ON MONDAY...

Red Flag Warnings are out for much of eastern NM today where strong
W/NW winds with gusts upwards of 35-55mph will be likely. A strong
Pacific cold front will push into northwestern NM this morning,
spreading eastward with daytime highs falling 5-10F below normal
across the west and within a few degrees of normal over eastern NM.
MinRHs will be near to below critical levels area wide except in the
single-digits over far northeastern NM with high Haines and Haines6
over far northeastern NM. Fine fuels across the east will be
especially susceptible to rapid fire spreading/growth given
preceding curing. Critical fire weather will lower as winds taper
off by the evening hours Sunday. Although MinRHs and winds will meet
critical fire threshold over north-central and northwestern NM
today, critical fire weather conditions will be moderated somewhat
by temperatures falling below normal and low to moderate Haines
indices where 100 to 1000-hr fuels haven't cured as much as finer
fuels have.

Another round of critical fire weather concerns is likely Monday
over portions of eastern NM to include NMZ107-108 as northwest winds
again increase during the afternoon but to a lesser degree compared
to Sunday with peak gusts 35-45mph. MaxTs will have fallen below
normal with low-moderate Haines indices as well. However, given the
preceding curing and today's windy and dry weather, conditions of
fine fuels across the east will still likely be a concern for rapid
fire spreading. Winds trend down with temperatures trending up by
the middle of next week before another cooler Fall weather system
arrives Wed into Thu.

24/RJH

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning from noon today to 8 PM MDT this evening for the
following zones... NMZ103-104-107-108.

Wind Advisory until 7 PM MDT this evening for the following zones...
 NMZ510-512>516-518-519-521>523-527>529-531>534.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
432 AM MDT Sun Oct 20 2019

NMZ201>241-211100-
Northwest Plateau-Chuska Mountains-Far Northwest Highlands-
Northwest Highlands-West Central Plateau-West Central Mountains-
West Central Highlands-Southwest Mountains-
San Francisco River Valley-Tusas Mountains Including Chama-
Jemez Mountains-Glorieta Mesa Including Glorieta Pass-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains-
East Slopes Sangre de Cristo Mountains-Upper Rio Grande Valley-
Espanola Valley-Santa Fe Metro Area-
Middle Rio Grande Valley/Albuquerque Metro Area-
Lower Rio Grande Valley-Sandia/Manzano Mountains Including Edgewood-
Estancia Valley-Central Highlands-South Central Highlands-
Upper Tularosa Valley-South Central Mountains-
Johnson and Bartlett Mesas Including Raton Pass-
Far Northeast Highlands-Northeast Highlands-Union County-
Harding County-Eastern San Miguel County-Guadalupe County-
Quay County-Curry County-Roosevelt County-De Baca County-
Chaves County Plains-Eastern Lincoln County-Southwest Chaves County-
San Agustin Plains and Adjacent Lowlands-
432 AM MDT Sun Oct 20 2019

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of north and central
New Mexico.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

A Red Flag Warning is in effect from 1200 pm to 800 pm MDT for all of
eastern NM where low humidities combined with strong winds will
create critical fire weather conditions.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

Red Flag Warnings may be needed again for eastern areas Monday
afternoon into early evening

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.

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