Flash Flood Warning 30, NWS Albuquerque, NM

778 
WGUS75 KABQ 222135
FFSABQ

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
335 PM MDT Thu Aug 22 2019

NMC007-222144-
/O.CAN.KABQ.FF.W.0030.000000T0000Z-190822T2330Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Colfax-
335 PM MDT Thu Aug 22 2019

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR WEST CENTRAL COLFAX COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...

The heavy rain has ended. Flooding is no longer expected to pose a
threat. Please continue to heed any remaining road closures.

LAT...LON 3660 10499 3655 10481 3648 10491 3646 10506
      3651 10514 3657 10512

$$

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Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1150 AM MDT Thu Aug 22 2019

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
VFR conditions to prevail across western portions of the state today,
as drier air moves in from the northwest. Shower and thunderstorm
coverage will move further east today, with KLVS likely to see
thunderstorms by early afternoon, followed by KTCC and KROW later
this afternoon (although confidence is much less for these two
sites). Brief MVFR conditions are possible in stronger storms, along
with gusty erratic winds and the chance for small hail.

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&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...329 AM MDT Thu Aug 22 2019...
.SYNOPSIS...
Hot and dry will be the rule today into early next week. Isolated afternoon
and evening thunderstorms will confined to the eastern half of the
state today and Friday with dry weather expected all areas during
the weekend. Near record to record heat is forecast for early next
week with some relief to the heat and dry on track to move in Monday
night and Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Dry west to northwest flow aloft ahead of an unusually deep upper
level trough over the PACNW will send moisture to the eastward
today. Isolated afternoon and evening convection will be confined to
the northern, southwest and south-central mountains as well as to
areas east of the central mountain chain today and Friday. By the
weekend, drier air will overtake all areas for at least two days of a
thunderstorm free forecast area. At the same time, the Four Corners'
high starts to redevelop over CA and AZ, allowing temperatures to
climb a few degrees each day over the weekend and into Monday. Latest
models have backed off somewhat on 700mb temps for Monday with 19C
or so instead of 21C so dropped high temperatures on Monday 1-3
degrees F most areas. Near record to record heat remains on track for
much of the forecast area but possibly not to the extent of previous
forecasts.

GFS and ECWMF now bring the backdoor cold front associated with the
PACNW/Northern Rockies/Northern Plains trough mentioned above into
eastern NM Monday afternoon and evening and through central portions
of the state Tuesday morning. GFS and ECWMF agree that convection on
Tuesday and Wednesday will be rather limited to the south-central
and southwest mountains as the remainder of the forecast area remains
too cool/stable for convection. Good news is the northern stream
(polar jet) is unseasonably strong which will likely lead to
additional backdoor cold fronts dropping in and an active end of
August and early September.

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&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A warming/drying trend will be underway to close-out the work week
and will continue into the weekend, with near-record heat forecast
Sun/Mon. In the meantime, sufficient moisture will remain for another
round of wetting storms mainly along/east of central mountain chain
today. By Sun/Mon hot, dry and unstable conditions will prevail with
minimum humidity exceeding critical threshold across much of the
area under the influence of dry northwest flow aloft. However, winds
are forecast to remain below critical threshold at this time. A
backdoor front is still on track to push through Monday night and
will recharge moisture across the area, leading to improved chances
for wetting storms by Tue/Wed.

11

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

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Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
330 AM MDT Thu Aug 22 2019

NMZ501>540-230930-
Northwest Plateau-Chuska Mountains-Far Northwest Highlands-
Northwest Highlands-West Central Plateau-West Central Mountains-
West Central Highlands-Southwest Mountains-
San Francisco River Valley-San Juan Mountains-Jemez Mountains-
West Slopes Sangre de Cristo Mountains-
Northern Sangre de Cristos above 9500 feet/Red River-
Southern Sangre de Cristos above 9500 feet-
East Slopes Sangre de Cristo Mountains-Upper Rio Grande Valley-
Lower Chama River Valley-Santa Fe Metro Area-
Middle Rio Grande Valley/Albuquerque Metro Area-
Lower Rio Grande Valley-Sandia/Manzano Mountains-Estancia Valley-
Central Highlands-South Central Highlands-Upper Tularosa Valley-
South Central Mountains-Raton Ridge/Johnson Mesa-
Far Northeast Highlands-Northeast Highlands-Union County-
Harding County-Eastern San Miguel County-Guadalupe County-
Quay County-Curry County-Roosevelt County-De Baca County-
Chaves County Plains-Eastern Lincoln County-Southwest Chaves County-
330 AM MDT Thu Aug 22 2019

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of north and central
New Mexico.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Isolated showers and thunderstorms will be limited to the northern,
southwest and south-central mountains this afternoon and early
evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

Above to well above average temperatures will continue Friday
through Tuesday. The hottest days are expected to be Sunday and
Monday when widespread near record to record heat is likely. Areas
within Chaves County may reach or exceed 105 degrees again for
several days.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.

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