Flash Flood Warning 24, NWS Albuquerque, NM

643 
WGUS75 KABQ 072308
FFSABQ

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
508 PM MDT Wed Aug 7 2019

NMC007-072318-
/O.EXP.KABQ.FF.W.0024.000000T0000Z-190807T2315Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Colfax-
508 PM MDT Wed Aug 7 2019

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR WEST CENTRAL COLFAX COUNTY WILL EXPIRE
AT 515 PM MDT...

The heavy rain has ended. Flood waters have receded. Flooding is no
longer expected to pose a threat. Please continue to heed any
remaining road closures.

LAT...LON 3659 10496 3652 10488 3648 10481 3647 10483
      3646 10486 3649 10493 3650 10513 3659 10512

$$

33

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1213 PM MDT Wed Aug 7 2019

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
All TAF sites will have at least a 20% chance of showers and
thunderstorms this afternoon and/or evening. The best chance will
stretch from the southwest and west central mountains northeastward
to the Sangre de Cristo Mountains, where scattered to numerous storms
will be found. Cells will generally travel to the northeast at
speeds from 10-20 mph, which will carry scattered to isolated
activity onto the eastern plains. Wet microbursts are expected with
the potential for erratic wind gusts over 45 kt near stronger
storms.

44

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...330 AM MDT Wed Aug 7 2019...
.SYNOPSIS...
Showers and thunderstorms focused over western and northern New
Mexico today will become more widespread and numerous across the
region Thursday and through the weekend. Locally heavy rainfall
which could lead to flash flooding is possible with any storm,
however, heavy rainfall will become more likely Thursday into the
weekend as a tap of deep moisture flows into New Mexico. High
temperatures will remain near to above normal overall through Friday
before the west cools down to a few degrees below average for the
weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Showers and isolated storms persist again early this morning west of
the Continental Divide and in the Southeast Plains. Today still
appears to be a little less active than on Tuesday, with storms
focused over western and northern New Mexico. However, any storm
will be capable of producing heavy rain which could lead to
localized flooding.

Showers and storms are still forecast to increase in number and
areal coverage Thursday and into the weekend as the upper high
center drifts into southern New Mexico then to the east of the
state, setting up a plume of deep moisture to flow into New Mexico.
Friday may be especially active, given the weak surface boundary
forecast to make more progress into eastern New Mexico, resulting in
low level upslope flow into the central mountain chain. Potential
for locally heavy rainfall and flooding will increase as the weekend
approaches.

Models continue to yo-yo in regards to the forecast for early to mid
next week. Drier air may still work into northwest New Mexico,
reducing the potential for, and number of storms, while scattered
storms continue to develop elsewhere.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
The upper level high over southeast NM today will shift over TX/OK
Friday through early next week. Already high moisture values will be
renewed daily as rich moisture streams northward in a classic
monsoonal pattern. Additionally, a back door cold front arriving
Thursday night will provide extra fuel for thunderstorms. Therefore,
though storm coverage today may decrease slightly from yesterday,
storm coverage will ramp back up Thursday through the weekend. Slow
moving thunderstorms will be capable of heavy rain and flooding as
well as gusty outflow winds. Lightning strikes outside of
precipitation cores may start new wildfires, but minimum humidity
values will range from 25 to 35 percent and overnight recoveries
will be excellent, preventing rapid spread. By mid week next week,
models are suggesting that drier air may nose into northwest NM.
However, this will depend on the location of the upper high, and low
confidence exists on the upper high placement attm. Near normal
temperatures will persist across central and western NM, while
temperatures will remain slightly above normal across the east.

34

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
252 AM MDT Wed Aug 7 2019

NMZ501>540-081200-
Northwest Plateau-Chuska Mountains-Far Northwest Highlands-
Northwest Highlands-West Central Plateau-West Central Mountains-
West Central Highlands-Southwest Mountains-
San Francisco River Valley-San Juan Mountains-Jemez Mountains-
West Slopes Sangre de Cristo Mountains-
Northern Sangre de Cristos above 9500 feet/Red River-
Southern Sangre de Cristos above 9500 feet-
East Slopes Sangre de Cristo Mountains-Upper Rio Grande Valley-
Lower Chama River Valley-Santa Fe Metro Area-
Middle Rio Grande Valley/Albuquerque Metro Area-
Lower Rio Grande Valley-Sandia/Manzano Mountains-Estancia Valley-
Central Highlands-South Central Highlands-Upper Tularosa Valley-
South Central Mountains-Raton Ridge/Johnson Mesa-
Far Northeast Highlands-Northeast Highlands-Union County-
Harding County-Eastern San Miguel County-Guadalupe County-
Quay County-Curry County-Roosevelt County-De Baca County-
Chaves County Plains-Eastern Lincoln County-Southwest Chaves County-
252 AM MDT Wed Aug 7 2019

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of north and central
New Mexico.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Showers and thunderstorms over western and northern New Mexico could
produce locally heavy rainfall this afternoon and evening, leading to
flash flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

Showers and thunderstorms with heavy rainfall will continue to impact
much of northern and central New Mexico Thursday through the
weekend. The potential for flash flooding will increase with each day
of heavy rainfall, particularly over burn scars, steep terrain,
urban drainages, and areas that receive additional heavy rainfall.
Drier air may work into northwest New Mexico early next week,
bringing some relief from heavy rainfall but there is low confidence
in the forecast models at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report rain amounts as well as any
flooding through the National Weather Service Albuquerque web site
at weather.gov/abq or by calling 1.888.386.7637. You can also submit
storm reports and photos on our Facebook page or via Twitter using
the hashtag nmwx.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
919 AM MDT WED AUG 07 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0800 PM     FLASH FLOOD      6 NE COCHITI LAKE       35.71N 106.26W
08/06/2019                   SANDOVAL           NM   NWS EMPLOYEE

            KASHA-KATUWE TENT ROCKS NATIONAL MONUMENT

&&

EVENT NUMBER ABQ201902366

DAK