Flash Flood Warning 17, NWS Albuquerque, NM

643 
WGUS75 KABQ 030148
FFSABQ

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
748 PM MDT Fri Aug 2 2019

NMC001-057-030400-
/O.CON.KABQ.FF.W.0017.000000T0000Z-190803T0400Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Bernalillo-Torrance-
748 PM MDT Fri Aug 2 2019

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM MDT FOR
BERNALILLO AND NORTHWESTERN TORRANCE COUNTIES...

At 747 PM MDT, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms produced heavy 
rain across the warned area.  Flash flooding is expected to continue.

Some locations that will experience flooding include...
Chilili.

This will impact the Dog Head fire burn scar including but not
limited to La Jara Canyon, La Jara Road, Arroyo De Chilili,
Aceves Road, Arroyo Chinchonte, Manzano Morning and Twin Peaks Drive,
and State Road 337.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Be especially cautious at night when it is harder to recognize the
dangers of flash flooding.

Runoff from rainfall will cause elevated water levels within 
vulnerable drainages in and downstream of the Dog Head wild fire 
burn area.

&&

LAT...LON 3492 10624 3488 10611 3478 10610 3480 10639
      3492 10633

$$

24

456 
WGUS75 KABQ 030352
FFSABQ

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
952 PM MDT Fri Aug 2 2019

NMC001-057-030400-
/O.EXP.KABQ.FF.W.0017.000000T0000Z-190803T0400Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Bernalillo-Torrance-
952 PM MDT Fri Aug 2 2019

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR BERNALILLO AND NORTHWESTERN TORRANCE
COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 1000 PM MDT...

Light rain continues to impact the Dog Head burn scar, however the 
threat for flash flooding has ended. Please continue to heed any 
remaining road closures.

LAT...LON 3492 10624 3488 10611 3478 10610 3480 10639
      3492 10633

$$

Guyer

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
612 PM MDT Fri Aug 2 2019

.UPDATE...
The Flash Flood Watch has been cancelled. The main axis of storms
with heavy rainfall will focus within central NM this evening as a
back door front/boundary moves west into the RGV and interacts with
moist outflows approaching from the west. Precip will taper off with
pockets of light rain and light showers through the predawn hours.

Guyer

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...534 PM MDT Fri Aug 2 2019...
.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
An active evening is taking shape centered around KABQ as convective
outflows merge into the area from the east and west. Models shows an
extended period of SHRA/TSRA thru at least 03Z before shifting into
more showery and even areas of rain thru late tonight. Any direct hit
from a storm will be capable of producing MVFR cigs/vsbys with heavy
rain and strong winds. Storm motion will be slow and erratic. Precip
will taper off overnight followed by slow clearing through sunrise.
Another active day is on tap Saturday within central and western NM.

Guyer

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...358 PM MDT Fri Aug 2 2019...
.SYNOPSIS...
Today has been more of an active day compared to yesterday across the
central and western portions of the state. Showers and thunderstorms
are expected to continue into the late evening hours. One main
concern heading into the late afternoon and early evening hours is
slow moving thunderstorms that will result in locally heavy rainfall
and possible flash flooding, especially near the Ute Park burn scar
area. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected to
continue into the weekend with a slight downtrend across eastern New
Mexico by Sunday. Temperatures will be near to below normal for the
weekend, with a slight warming trend into mid- week next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Increased moisture in central and western portions of the state today
have resulted in numerous thunderstorms in the area. As noted by this
morning's 12z sounding for the Albuquerque area, PWAT (precipitable
water) values have increased to 1.07 inches, but will slowly trend
downwards through the weekend. The high will move further westward
today, before settling near the New Mexico/Arizona border for the
weekend. This will result in slow, erratic storm motions, locally
heavy rainfall, and flash flooding possible over recent burn scar
areas.

Drier air will begin making its way into eastern New Mexico by Sunday
and lowering thunderstorm potential along the eastern border.
Scattered to numerous thunderstorms will still be possible along and
west of the central mountain chain as the moisture gets recycled. By
mid-week, the high's position further west over Arizona is not
conducive to a traditional monsoonal flow pattern. Although moisture
is in place, afternoon showers and thunderstorms will mainly be
confined to the higher terrain. Given this scenario, a warming trend
should keep temperatures a few degrees above normal across the
state. With that said, the GFS is still quite enthusiastic about
keeping higher precipitation potential in the forecast.

As of right now, the GFS and ECMWF are in agreement for late next
week bringing the high back to our east. This could be our next
chance for enhanced precipitation potential after this weekend.

31

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
High pressure aloft over central New Mexico will continue to slowly
shift westward through the weekend, likely recentering over eastern
Arizona by Monday. This will maintain very weak steering flow area
with a subtle shift in storm motions from NW to SE in the coming
days. Atmospheric moisture that has gradually increased the past few
days will generally peak early this weekend before trending downward
early next week. In the near-term,  slow-moving or nearly stationary
thunderstorms over central, western and northern New Mexico will
focus a little farther west on Saturday as a moist, backdoor front
gradually shifts south and west. The impacts of drier air wrapping
clockwise around the upper high could be felt over central and
moreso eastern New Mexico Sunday PM. Vent rates will remain
poor/fair in most areas beneath the upper high. Moderate confidence
in the extended range forecast showing the upper high shifting back
east of the state late next week. KJ

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
319 AM MDT Fri Aug 2 2019

NMZ501>540-031100-
Northwest Plateau-Chuska Mountains-Far Northwest Highlands-
Northwest Highlands-West Central Plateau-West Central Mountains-
West Central Highlands-Southwest Mountains-
San Francisco River Valley-San Juan Mountains-Jemez Mountains-
West Slopes Sangre de Cristo Mountains-
Northern Sangre de Cristos above 9500 feet/Red River-
Southern Sangre de Cristos above 9500 feet-
East Slopes Sangre de Cristo Mountains-Upper Rio Grande Valley-
Lower Chama River Valley-Santa Fe Metro Area-
Middle Rio Grande Valley/Albuquerque Metro Area-
Lower Rio Grande Valley-Sandia/Manzano Mountains-Estancia Valley-
Central Highlands-South Central Highlands-Upper Tularosa Valley-
South Central Mountains-Raton Ridge/Johnson Mesa-
Far Northeast Highlands-Northeast Highlands-Union County-
Harding County-Eastern San Miguel County-Guadalupe County-
Quay County-Curry County-Roosevelt County-De Baca County-
Chaves County Plains-Eastern Lincoln County-Southwest Chaves County-
319 AM MDT Fri Aug 2 2019

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of north and central
New Mexico.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected across
the area today, and some will be capable of producing heavy rainfall.
Northeast New Mexico will be especially favored for localized heavy
rainfall and flash flooding through the evening. Burn areas, such as
the Ute Park burn scar, will be the most vulnerable to flash flooding
due to slow storm motions.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

Scattered to numerous showers and storms will favor central and
western New Mexico this weekend and through early next week where
locally heavy rainfall is possible. Localized areas of flash
flooding may occur Saturday and Sunday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report rainfall amounts and any flooding
through the National Weather Service Albuquerque web site at
weather.gov/abq or by calling 1.888.386.7637.

15

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
357 PM MDT Fri Aug 2 2019

NMZ530-022230-
Union County-
357 PM MDT Fri Aug 2 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EAST CENTRAL UNION COUNTY UNTIL
430 PM MDT...

At 356 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Clayton, moving southeast at 5 mph.

Wind gusts of 55 mph will be likely with this storm.

Heavy rain and frequent and dangerous cloud to ground lightning will
also be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Clayton.

&&

LAT...LON 3650 10304 3612 10304 3644 10331 3657 10313
      3651 10300
TIME...MOT...LOC 2156Z 323DEG 6KT 3643 10313

Guyer

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
358 PM MDT FRI AUG 02 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0346 PM     TSTM WND GST     2 ENE CLAYTON           36.46N 103.14W
08/02/2019  M59 MPH          UNION              NM   ASOS

            KCAO ASOS.

&&

EVENT NUMBER ABQ201902359

GUYER

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
404 PM MDT Fri Aug 2 2019

NMZ523-533-022230-
Guadalupe County-Central Highlands-
404 PM MDT Fri Aug 2 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN SAN MIGUEL...
SOUTHWESTERN GUADALUPE AND NORTHEASTERN TORRANCE COUNTIES UNTIL 430
PM MDT...

At 403 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 12 miles southwest of Villanueva to 7 miles
south of Vaughn. These storms were nearly stationary.

Pea size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Heavy rain and frequent and dangerous cloud to ground lightning will
be likely with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Vaughn and Milagro.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 40 between Mile Markers 223 and 242.
 Highway 285 between Mile Markers 194 and 204
 State road 3 between Interstate 40 and Villanueva.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Motorists can expect brief but sudden changes in visibility and
ponding of water on highways as storms move through the area.

&&

LAT...LON 3516 10568 3439 10526 3451 10494 3527 10540
TIME...MOT...LOC 2203Z 273DEG 2KT 3516 10553 3449 10518

Guyer

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
449 PM MDT Fri Aug 2 2019

NMZ507-519-022315-
West Central Highlands-Middle Rio Grande Valley/Albuquerque Metro
Area-
449 PM MDT Fri Aug 2 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EASTERN CIBOLA...NORTHWESTERN
VALENCIA AND BERNALILLO COUNTIES UNTIL 515 PM MDT...

At 449 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 16
miles east of Mesita, or 19 miles east of Laguna Pueblo. This storm
was nearly stationary.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Heavy rain will also be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Tohajiilee.

This includes Interstate 40 between Mile Markers 130 and 144.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Motorists can expect brief but sudden changes in visibility and
ponding of water on highways as storms move through the area.

&&

LAT...LON 3483 10688 3480 10708 3514 10716 3515 10688
TIME...MOT...LOC 2249Z 175DEG 4KT 3501 10703

24

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
627 PM MDT FRI AUG 02 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0622 PM     TSTM WND GST     STANLEY                 35.15N 105.98W
08/02/2019  M61 MPH          SANTA FE           NM   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

EVENT NUMBER ABQ201902360

TRM

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
644 PM MDT Fri Aug 2 2019

NMZ519-521-030115-
Sandia/Manzano Mountains-Middle Rio Grande Valley/Albuquerque Metro
Area-
644 PM MDT Fri Aug 2 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN VALENCIA...
BERNALILLO AND WEST CENTRAL TORRANCE COUNTIES UNTIL 715 PM MDT...

At 644 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles southwest of Escabosa, or 19 miles east of Los Lunas, moving
southwest at 10 mph.

Dime size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this
storm.

Heavy rain and frequent and dangerous cloud to ground lightning will
also be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Meadow Lake and Tajique.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent dangerous cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this
storm. Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a
safe shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3497 10638 3482 10626 3464 10647 3486 10666
TIME...MOT...LOC 0044Z 055DEG 9KT 3485 10640

24